The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Phone	T-1	Jax	6	21	23	123	2,314	5.32%
		Phx	6	22	43	153	3,157	4.85%
		Ral	7	17	43	153	1,842	8.31%
	Total		19	60	109	429	7,313	5.87%
Black Phone (EA)	T-0	Jax	1	1	9	16	194	8.25%
		Ral	2	2	14	53	306	17.32%
	Total		3	3	23	69	500	13.80%
Elvis	T-1	Jax	7	33	45	310	5,349	5.80%
		Phx	6	21	30	247	2,571	9.61%
		Ral	8	20	42	303	2,031	14.92%
	Total		21	74	117	860	9,951	8.64%
Elvis (EA)	T-0	Jax	1	1	151	151	205	73.66%
	Total		1	1	151	151	205	73.66%
Minions 2	T-8	Jax	7	104	8	119	17,171	0.69%
		Phx	6	66	6	128	12,191	1.05%
		Ral	8	59	8	153	7,630	2.01%
	Total		21	229	22	400	36,992	1.08%
Nope	T-29	Jax	7	51	1	44	8,591	0.51%
		Phx	6	20	0	73	4,344	1.68%
		Ral	8	25	2	54	3,411	1.58%
	Total		21	96	3	171	16,346	1.05%
Thor 4	T-15	Jax	7	112	25	1,478	17,265	8.56%
		Phx	6	111	46	1,894	18,041	10.50%
		Ral	8	63	46	1,678	8,326	20.15%
	Total		21	286	117	5,050	43,632	11.57%

 

Black Phone (Thu) T-1 comps

 - Candyman - 1.46x (2.77m)

 - Firestarter - 3.87x (1.45m)

 - Resident Evil (Tue) - 2.33x (2.18m)

 - Halloween Kills - .304x (1.47m)

 - Antlers - 5.88x (2.17x)

 - X - 3.15x (1.39m)

 - Men - 3.33x (1.41m)

 

Looks like two different ranges it could be in.  I'd lean towards the 1.45m range for true Thursday at this point.

 

Elvis (Thu) T-1 comps

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 5.93x (3.56m)

 - F9 - .394x (2.8m)

 - Ghostbusters - .614x (2.55m)

 - Lost City (Thu) - 1.78x (4.45m)

 - Father Stu - 6.28x (3.45m)

 

Minions 2 T-8 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .778x (3.88m)

 - FB3 - .384x (2.31m)

 - Ghostbusters (Thu) - .73x (3.03m)

 - Shang-Chi - .368x (3.24m)

 

Nope T-29 comp

 - JW-D - .1x (1.79m)

 

It's something I guess

 

Thor 4 T-15 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .522x (18.79m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.81x (31.86m)

 - No Way Home - .324x (16.21m)

 - Black Widow - 2.82x (37.24m)

 - JW3 - 2.03x (36.49m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Phone	T-0	Jax	6	23	56	179	2,416	7.41%
		Phx	7	26	150	303	3,479	8.71%
		Ral	7	17	41	194	1,842	10.53%
	Total		20	66	247	676	7,737	8.74%
Elvis	T-0	Jax	7	33	66	376	5,349	7.03%
		Phx	7	24	152	399	2,800	14.25%
		Ral	8	21	75	378	2,146	17.61%
	Total		22	78	293	1,153	10,295	11.20%
Malcolm List	T-7	Jax	5	8	0	0	859	0.00%
		Phx	4	7	3	3	574	0.52%
		Ral	3	4	1	1	191	0.52%
	Total		12	19	4	4	1,624	0.25%
Minions 2	T-7	Jax	7	104	8	127	17,171	0.74%
		Phx	6	66	18	146	12,191	1.20%
		Ral	8	59	19	172	7,630	2.25%
	Total		21	229	45	445	36,992	1.20%
Nope	T-28	Jax	7	51	2	46	8,591	0.54%
		Phx	6	20	1	74	4,344	1.70%
		Ral	8	25	0	54	3,411	1.58%
	Total		21	96	3	174	16,346	1.06%
Thor 4	T-14	Jax	7	112	48	1,526	17,265	8.84%
		Phx	6	111	60	1,954	18,041	10.83%
		Ral	8	63	56	1,734	8,326	20.83%
	Total		21	286	164	5,214	43,632	11.95%

 

Black Phone (Thu) T-0 comps

 - Candyman - 1.31x (2.48m)

 - Firestarter - 4.57x (1.71m)

 - Resident Evil (Tue) - 2.22x (2.08m)

 - Halloween Kills - .373x (1.81m)

 - Antlers - 5.73x (2.12x)

 - X - 3.03x (1.33m)

 - Men - 4.48x (1.89m)

 

Bumping up to 1.8m for Thursday; with EA it should be easily above 2m

 

Elvis (Thu) T-0 comps

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 5.91x (3.55m)

 - F9 - .377x (2.68m)

 - Ghostbusters - .643x (2.67m)

 - Lost City (Thu) - 1.68x (4.2m)

 - Father Stu - 5.17x (2.84m)

 

Minions 2 T-7 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .809x (4.03m)

 - FB3 - .375x (2.25m)

 - Ghostbusters (Thu) - .77x (3.2m)

 - Shang-Chi - .381x (3.35m)

 

Nope T-28 comp

 - JW-D - missed

 

Thor 4 T-14 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .528x (19m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.79x (31.51m)

 - No Way Home - .317x (15.83m)

 - Black Widow - 2.75x (36.32m)

 - JW3 - 2.04x (36.76m)

[filmlover]

Where the Crawdads Sing tickets now live.

[Tinalera]

Minions

SW/Toronto Ontario t-8

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	17	86	209	23783	23992	0.0087
Fri	15	84	282	22329	22611	0.0124

 

First offical comp for to Lightyear tomorrow-however a sneak peak/fun little tidbit. For comparing THURSDAY numbers only from Minion t-8 to Lightyear t-7 (based on final friday sales number just as an experiment.

(to avoid confusion the chart above is for the full normal Minion t-8 for thurs friday, NOT related to the info below IE dont try figuring out where the 116 came from, its from Lightyear t-7)

 

 

 

Minions 209 (t-8)

Lightyear 116 (t-7) so if I do did this right Minions is x1.801 vs Lightyear. Going by Lightyear 20 million opening friday would comp Minions (again THURS numbers only) 1.8X20 would be 36 million.

 

I was going to do Thurs amt only...then something something confusion/anger/rioting about the 5.2=/= including wed numbers...I didnt want to stir up old memories.....  ALTHOUGH (spoiler look away now to avoid traumatic flashbacks...

 

*cough9millionthursdaycough*

 

*Strides quickly away whistling while nervously looking for the ensuing riot....*

 

 

Edited June 23, 2022 by Tinalera

[Alex SciChannel]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Phone	T-0	Jax	6	23	56	179	2,416	7.41%
		Phx	7	26	150	303	3,479	8.71%
		Ral	7	17	41	194	1,842	10.53%
	Total		20	66	247	676	7,737	8.74%
Elvis	T-0	Jax	7	33	66	376	5,349	7.03%
		Phx	7	24	152	399	2,800	14.25%
		Ral	8	21	75	378	2,146	17.61%
	Total		22	78	293	1,153	10,295	11.20%
Malcolm List	T-7	Jax	5	8	0	0	859	0.00%
		Phx	4	7	3	3	574	0.52%
		Ral	3	4	1	1	191	0.52%
	Total		12	19	4	4	1,624	0.25%
Minions 2	T-7	Jax	7	104	8	127	17,171	0.74%
		Phx	6	66	18	146	12,191	1.20%
		Ral	8	59	19	172	7,630	2.25%
	Total		21	229	45	445	36,992	1.20%
Nope	T-28	Jax	7	51	2	46	8,591	0.54%
		Phx	6	20	1	74	4,344	1.70%
		Ral	8	25	0	54	3,411	1.58%
	Total		21	96	3	174	16,346	1.06%
Thor 4	T-14	Jax	7	112	48	1,526	17,265	8.84%
		Phx	6	111	60	1,954	18,041	10.83%
		Ral	8	63	56	1,734	8,326	20.83%
	Total		21	286	164	5,214	43,632	11.95%

 

Black Phone (Thu) T-0 comps

 - Candyman - 1.31x (2.48m)

 - Firestarter - 4.57x (1.71m)

 - Resident Evil (Tue) - 2.22x (2.08m)

 - Halloween Kills - .373x (1.81m)

 - Antlers - 5.73x (2.12x)

 - X - 3.03x (1.33m)

 - Men - 4.48x (1.89m)

 

Bumping up to 1.8m for Thursday; with EA it should be easily above 2m

 

Elvis (Thu) T-0 comps

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 5.91x (3.55m)

 - F9 - .377x (2.68m)

 - Ghostbusters - .643x (2.67m)

 - Lost City (Thu) - 1.68x (4.2m)

 - Father Stu - 5.17x (2.84m)

 

Minions 2 T-7 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .809x (4.03m)

 - FB3 - .375x (2.25m)

 - Ghostbusters (Thu) - .77x (3.2m)

 - Shang-Chi - .381x (3.35m)

 

Nope T-28 comp

 - JW-D - missed

 

Thor 4 T-14 comps

 - Dr. Strange 2 - .528x (19m)

 - Batman (Thu) - 1.79x (31.51m)

 - No Way Home - .317x (15.83m)

 - Black Widow - 2.75x (36.32m)

 - JW3 - 2.04x (36.76m)

Possible The Black Phone makes $2M true Thursday? I saw it on Tuesday and it definitely deserves to overperform. My audience was very enthusiastic and wom was really good. My whole theater was clapping at parts.

[katnisscinnaplex]

26 minutes ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Possible The Black Phone makes $2M true Thursday? I saw it on Tuesday and it definitely deserves to overperform. My audience was very enthusiastic and wom was really good. My whole theater was clapping at parts.

Definitely possible.  About to finish Santikos run on the new releases; maybe they show even better.  Horror being walk-up heavy, we really need the late updates more than other genres.

[charlie Jatinder]

57 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Minions

SW/Toronto Ontario t-8

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	17	86	209	23783	23992	0.0087
Fri	15	84	282	22329	22611	0.0124

 

First offical comp for to Lightyear tomorrow-however a sneak peak/fun little tidbit. For comparing THURSDAY numbers only from Minion t-8 to Lightyear t-7 (based on final friday sales number just as an experiment.

(to avoid confusion the chart above is for the full normal Minion t-8 for thurs friday, NOT related to the info below IE dont try figuring out where the 116 came from, its from Lightyear t-7)

 

 

 

Minions 209 (t-8)

Lightyear 116 (t-7) so if I do did this right Minions is x1.801 vs Lightyear. Going by Lightyear 20 million opening friday would comp Minions (again THURS numbers only) 1.8X20 would be 36 million.

 

I was going to do Thurs amt only...then something something confusion/anger/rioting about the 5.2=/= including wed numbers...I didnt want to stir up old memories.....  ALTHOUGH (spoiler look away now to avoid traumatic flashbacks...

 

*cough9millionthursdaycough*

 

*Strides quickly away whistling while nervously looking for the ensuing riot....*

Canada comps won't work for nationwide numbers as well as US regional comps since there can be big difference for a film in two countries.

 

Lightyear had poor opening in Canada. Just $150K Previews and $750K OD. Generally that will be only $10-11M OD nationwide.

 

Canada comps can work well for predicting Canada only numbers and for that I believe I or @DAJK have to report CAN numbers more frequently. Will see what I can do.

Edited June 23, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Black Phone	PLF	3	143	143	774	18.48%	$15.43	$2,206.49
		Standard	34	611	611	3,374	18.11%	$11.64	$7,110.36
	Total		37	754	754	4,148	18.18%	$12.36	$9,316.85
	Elvis	PLF	6	427	427	1,086	39.32%	$15.43	$6,588.61
		Standard	42	960	960	4,508	21.30%	$12.15	$11,659.27
	Total		48	1,387	1,387	5,594	24.79%	$13.16	$18,247.88

 

Elvis T-0 comps

 - FB3 - .688x (4.13m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .27x (3.99m)

 - Sonic 2 - .686x (3.418m)

 - Morbius - .7x (4.01m)

 - JW3 - .155x (2.79m)

 

I included a lot of comps because I don't really have anything really close.  That being said, I think things are looking good for something in the high 3s for true Thursday.  It looks like there was one EA show for the chain, but I didn't get a chance to look at it.  Last I saw, there were ~220 EA shows total for Elvis; it'd be pretty neat if EA pushed this over 4m!  I'll put my true Thu prediction at 3.8m

 

Black Phone T-0 comps

 - Morbius - .383x (2.18m)

 - Northman - 3.26x (4.41m)

 - Bob's Burgers - 2.18x (3.28m)

 - FB3 - .374x (2.25m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .1x (1.77m)

 - DS2 - .048x (1.71m)

 

Same story here but probably even worse on comps.  Looking at it against every movie I've tracked the majority are in the high 1s and low 2s (with the exceptions being movies <200 tickets sold).  I think I'll go with 1.9m for true Thursday.

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

 

 

Elvis T-0 comps

 - FB3 - .688x (4.13m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .27x (3.99m)

 - Sonic 2 - .686x (3.418m)

 - Morbius - .7x (4.01m)

 - JW3 - .155x (2.79m)

 

I included a lot of comps because I don't really have anything really close.  That being said, I think things are looking good for something in the high 3s for true Thursday.  It looks like there was one EA show for the chain, but I didn't get a chance to look at it.  Last I saw, there were ~220 EA shows total for Elvis; it'd be pretty neat if EA pushed this over 4m!  I'll put my true Thu prediction at 3.8m

 

Black Phone T-0 comps

 - Morbius - .383x (2.18m)

 - Northman - 3.26x (4.41m)

 - Bob's Burgers - 2.18x (3.28m)

 - FB3 - .374x (2.25m)

 - Batman (Thu) - .1x (1.77m)

 - DS2 - .048x (1.71m)

 

Same story here but probably even worse on comps.  Looking at it against every movie I've tracked the majority are in the high 1s and low 2s (with the exceptions being movies <200 tickets sold).  I think I'll go with 1.9m for true Thursday.

We could really use this good number to discharge ourselves emotionally from the funeral we attended last week for LY. 

[Manny G]

Why the silence on Thor? What are y’all predictions ?

[Tinalera]

26 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Canada comps won't work for nationwide numbers as well as US regional comps since there can be big difference for a film in two countries.

 

Lightyear had poor opening in Canada. Just $150K Previews and $750K OD. Generally that will be only $10-11M OD nationwide.

 

Canada comps can work well for predicting Canada only numbers and for that I believe I or @DAJK have to report CAN numbers more frequently. Will see what I can do.

Would it be okay if I did comps with a preface/advisory that I am comparing Canada numbers to US/Canada totals? I don't want to put you or anyone through more work (its hard to find a site that shows canada only Friday sales numbers. Otherwise I can just go back to reporting my numbers without comps.

 

Just when i was getting the swing of things too lol. I don't want anyone to go out of their way to report Canada numbers more often-everyone here is already doing so much work.

[charlie Jatinder]

9 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Otherwise I can just go back to reporting my numbers without comps.

 

Just when i was getting the swing of things too lol. I don't want anyone to go out of their way to report Canada numbers more often-everyone here is already doing so much work.

No you should continue with comps. I just wanted to give a precaution. In time you will have enough movies to have good set of comps.

e.g. Philly isn't really representative of Nationwide number like Sacramento but @Eric Presley now has enough comps to give somewhat nationwide representative number. Be ready for $50M+ previews comps for Black Panther 2 in Philly later this year.

Edited June 23, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[filmlover]

FYI AMC has updated their fall list of movies that are getting Dolby/PLFs:

 

New Movies, Theaters Near You, Movie Tickets, Showtimes, Movie Trailers, Movies in Theaters (amctheatres.com)

 

Salem's Lot, The Woman King, Don't Worry Darling, Lyle Lyle Crocodile, Tar (guessing this will be select theaters since it's Focus), Halloween Ends, Black Adam. Also not included yet but the trailers for Devotion say it'll be in PLF so guessing it takes over when it goes wide October 28.

Edited June 23, 2022 by filmlover

[Tinalera]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

No you should continue with comps. I just wanted to give a precaution. In time you will have enough movies to have good set of comps.

e.g. Philly isn't really representative of Nationwide number like Sacramento but @Eric Presley now has enough comps to give somewhat nationwide representative number. Be ready for $50M+ previews comps for Black Panther 2 in Philly later this year.

Thank you

 

I will still put a disclaimer that my comps are based on Canada/US combined Friday sales so people don't get excited about seeing a massive comp that is based really on just Canada only numbers. I do know from reading other places people seem to put a rough estimate that Canada does between 8-12 percent of US numbers, which is helpful but that's still a 4 percent swing lol.

 

BTW-that 50 mil preview....is that an incredibly early prediction??? LOL

 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Thank you

 

I will still put a disclaimer that my comps are based on Canada/US combined Friday sales so people don't get excited about seeing a massive comp that is based really on just Canada only numbers. I do know from reading other places people seem to put a rough estimate that Canada does between 8-12 percent of US numbers, which is helpful but that's still a 4 percent swing lol.

For opening day, it will be 4-8%. 

 

6 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

BTW-that 50 mil preview....is that an incredibly early prediction??? LOL

Not a prediction for BP previews but Philly could give 50M+ previews comps I guess.

[keysersoze123]

20 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

No you should continue with comps. I just wanted to give a precaution. In time you will have enough movies to have good set of comps.

e.g. Philly isn't really representative of Nationwide number like Sacramento but @Eric Presley now has enough comps to give somewhat nationwide representative number. Be ready for $50M+ previews comps for Black Panther 2 in Philly later this year.

I know MCU tend to over perform in Phily and BP is kind of movie that should break out as well for "diverse" audience base. That said I would be really impressed if it can comp 50m against NWH. That will need NWH level of PS which would be crazy. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

I know MCU tend to over perform in Phily and BP is kind of movie that should break out as well for "diverse" audience base. That said I would be really impressed if it can comp 50m against NWH. That will need NWH level of PS which would be crazy. 

Philly has a huge black population and BP1 overindexed massively with black audiences, maybe not day 1 but I wouldn't be surprised at all with those comps eventually going past 50.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/18/2022 at 8:22 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-19	Thor 4	PLF	57	146	2,997	11,672	25.68%	$16.01	$47,992.64
		Standard	87	143	1,530	11,439	13.38%	$11.97	$18,317.01
	Thor 4 Total		144	289	4,527	23,111	19.59%	$14.65	$66,309.65

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-19	Thor 4	N	103	219	3,715	16,531	22.47%	$15.28	$56,770.53
		Y	41	70	812	6,580	12.34%	$11.75	$9,539.12
	Thor 4 Total		144	289	4,527	23,111	19.59%	$14.65	$66,309.65

 

*New sales since Thursday*

 

No T-19 comps unfortunately.  Not really impressed with the last few days here, but there's plenty of time left.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-14	Thor 4	PLF	57	3,387	3,387	11,672	29.02%	$15.95	$54,008.75
		Standard	87	1,775	1,775	11,439	15.52%	$11.92	$21,155.57
	Thor 4 Total		144	5,162	5,162	23,111	22.34%	$14.56	$75,164.32

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New*	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-14	Thor 4	N	103	4,178	4,178	16,531	25.27%	$15.21	$63,567.24
		Y	41	984	984	6,580	14.95%	$11.79	$11,597.08
	Thor 4 Total		144	5,162	5,162	23,111	22.34%	$14.56	$75,164.32

*New sales since Saturday*

 

Thor 4 T-14 comps

 - No Way Home - .371x (18.54m)

 - DS2 - .54x (19.5m)

 

Just not the same early rush as the others.  Two weeks is plenty of time to grow though. 

[XXR & Friends]

15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I know MCU tend to over perform in Phily and BP is kind of movie that should break out as well for "diverse" audience base. That said I would be really impressed if it can comp 50m against NWH. That will need NWH level of PS which would be crazy. 

 

10 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Philly has a huge black population and BP1 overindexed massively with black audiences, maybe not day 1 but I wouldn't be surprised at all with those comps eventually going past 50.

Yea some areas will massively overindex for BP2. Comparatively and if I recall correctly, Black Panther sold more tickets in Atlanta for OW than Endgame did and a similar ratio across the domestic market would have been something like $70M previews and $425M OW.

Edited June 23, 2022 by StormbreakerXXR

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I know MCU tend to over perform in Phily and BP is kind of movie that should break out as well for "diverse" audience base. That said I would be really impressed if it can comp 50m against NWH. That will need NWH level of PS which would be crazy. 

IIRC BP1 beat TFA in Black heavy populated regions for weekend, so Philly giving $50M+ for BP will be like $30M nationwide may be.

[Tinalera]

Thor4

SW/Toronto Ontario t-15 (no comps)

 

thor4	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	20	148	5820	24593	30413	0.1913
Fri	20	278	3423	36596	40019	0.0855