The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

MTC1 is looking high 20s while MTC is looking low 20s. But MTC1 is worth 2x mtc2 and so you can do that math. Plus add other chains we are tracking like Harkins/Drafthouse/megaplex etc and you can get a better picture. I am not sure if@DAJK can provide some ratio between Thor and DS2? MCU movies do very well in Canada as well. 

 

I assume OS rollout would start from wednesday. Let us see how that goes. 

[keysersoze123]

57 minutes ago, ZackM said:

NWH and Net basically converge by D0, so I think the comps will end up 27m+

Based on your final update, DS2 finished closer to your NWH unweighted(34.5m) than weighted(38.5). I would add NWH as that was another MCU movie. Other movies dont matter for Thor. 

 

That said I went back to May 5 to look for final updates and @charlie Jatinder thought Thor could do 40-45m previews back then. I wonder what is his projection today? 

[titanic2187]

Even with preview of $25m with meh IM of 5.2x like NWH and DS2, I can't see Thor 4 missing 130m at this point. A more realistic range should be something around 145m as Thor 4 is less spoiler-rush than DS2 and NWH.

[keysersoze123]

Let us revisit its OW on thursday once we get a sense of its walkups. for now the previews are the only number that matters. 

[charlie Jatinder]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Based on your final update, DS2 finished closer to your NWH unweighted(34.5m) than weighted(38.5). I would add NWH as that was another MCU movie. Other movies dont matter for Thor. 

 

That said I went back to May 5 to look for final updates and @charlie Jatinder thought Thor could do 40-45m previews back then. I wonder what is his projection today? 

Yeah safe to assume it ain't doing that much. Part of my projection was that THU starting 3PM will be very close to OD which doesn't seem to be happening so far in summer. 

 

Right now thinking 28-32M previews.

[keysersoze123]

Just now, charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah safe to assume it ain't doing that much. Part of my projection was that THU starting 3PM will be very close to OD which doesn't seem to be happening so far in summer. 

 

Right now thinking 28-32M previews.

32m finish from this point would be really uber strong. That would take it to a big OW as well. Based on final update from @ZackM at MTC1 final day walkups from DS2 and NWH were similar(from T-1 they sold around 150K seats). Let us see where Thor lands up. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

32m finish from this point would be really uber strong. That would take it to a big OW as well. Based on final update from @ZackM at MTC1 final day walkups from DS2 and NWH were similar(from T-1 they sold around 150K seats). Let us see where Thor lands up. 

Summer may help with Thursday walkups. This July 4 weekend makes Sat harder to interpret but I can see it doing like 180k. The pace has gotten pretty close to DS2, and since that did not have a crazy final week trend, quite reasonable for Thor to overtake by Thursday.

 

I am expecting it to finish at roughly 550k MTC1. What that yields depends on how other chains pick up.

 

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	84	13443	13691	248	1.81%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

5

 

T-20 Comps

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	42.54		34	583		0/92	13400/13983	4.17%		4407	5.58%		3.16m
TSS	102.90		29	241		0/81	13711/13952	1.73%		2352	10.54%		4.22m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     40/3962  [1.01% sold]
Matinee:      7/862  [0.81% | 2.82% of all tickets sold]

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	84	13445	13698	253	1.85%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

5

 

T-19 Comps

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	39.59		56	639		0/92	13462/14101	4.53%		4407	5.70%		2.94m
TSS	97.68		18	259		0/81	13693/13952	1.86%		2352	10.76%		4.01m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     40/3966  [1.01% sold]
Matinee:      7/862  [0.81% | 2.77% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	249	24865	33532	8667	25.85%

 

Total Showings Added Today	9
Total Seats Added Today	714
Total Seats Sold Today	393

 

T-6 Comps

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	212.95		256	4070		0/178	21664/25734	15.82%		9196	94.25%		29.43m
NWH	45.06		559	19233		1/325	19887/39120	49.16%		28183	30.75%		22.53m
MoM	66.35		506	13063		0/353	29617/42680	30.61%		21117	41.04%		23.89m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:        905/4831  [18.73% sold]
Matinee:    431/2566  [16.80% | 4.97% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

@Legion and Thunder The Batman sold 220 tickets at T-6, meaning the comp would have gone up (from 33.08m to 34.66m).  Make of that what you will (besides my stance that DC and Marvel just play differently locally).

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	251	24732	33701	8969	26.61%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	169
Total Seats Sold Today	302

 

T-5 Comps

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	207.62		250	4320		0/193	22993/27313	15.82%		9196	97.53%		28.70m
NWH	45.42		515	19748		1/325	19372/39120	50.48%		28183	31.82%		22.71m
MoM	66.39		446	13509		0/353	29171/42680	31.65%		21117	42.47%		23.90m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Love and Thunder's current tickets sold versus that final number.

COMP NOTE: The BW comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during BW's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:        962/4831  [19.91% sold]
Matinee:    460/2566  [17.93% | 5.13% of all tickets sold]

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	84	13445	13698	253	1.85%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

5

 

T-19 Comps

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	39.59		56	639		0/92	13462/14101	4.53%		4407	5.70%		2.94m
TSS	97.68		18	259		0/81	13693/13952	1.86%		2352	10.76%		4.01m

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     40/3966  [1.01% sold]
Matinee:      7/862  [0.81% | 2.77% of all tickets sold]

Did you track US @Porthos? May be worth checking as comp.

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Did you track US @Porthos? May be worth checking as comp.

 

Nope, wasn't even on my radar (to be fair, I think it shocked a lot of folks).  If I did, I'd have considered it a long time ago.

 

Am thinking about bringing in NTTD once it settles in after its initial fan rush.  When it comes right down to it, I don't have many good comps for horror (recently at least as I do have It 2) and I certainly don't have any good comps for a horror flick with 42 days of pre-sales.

 

Ironically enough, I was just thinking today that a decent comp I might have is Hobbs & Shaw, which also had an absurd pre-sale window with anemic sales that picked up fairly well at the end.  But, well, you know my stance on using pre-2020 films, so there we are.

Edited July 3, 2022 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Nope, wasn't even on my radar (to be fair, I think it shocked a lot of folks).  If I did, I'd have considered it a long time ago.

 

Am thinking about bringing in NTTD once it settles in after its initial fan rush.  When it comes right down to it, I don't have many good comps for horror and I certainly don't have any good comps for a horror flick with 42 days of pre-sales.

 

Ironically enough, I was just thinking today that a decent comp I might have is Hobbs & Shaw, which also had an absurd pre-sale window with anemic sales that picked up fairly well at the end.  But, well, you know my stance on using pre-2020 films, so there we are.

Yeah Hobbs and Shaw will be good comp. Us was extremly backloaded. 

 

I thought you did track US. I remember how Deadline was a lot lower than us and only one tracking regional numbers in the thread was you, so thought you did.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 7/2/2022 at 12:57 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-6 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
512	121,237	14,051	11.59%	$175,638	$12.50

 

+784. Good day in right direction. Need to continue this.

 

Comps

0.582x of DSitMoM admits - $21.2M

Thor: Love and Thunder Harkins T-5 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
512	121,237	14,814	12.22%	$183,694	$12.40

 

+763. Another good day. Hoping for 1.5k day today.

 

Comps

0.589x of DSitMoM admits - $21.4M

[Porthos]

56 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Yeah Hobbs and Shaw will be good comp. Us was extremly backloaded. 

 

I thought you did track US. I remember how Deadline was a lot lower than us and only one tracking regional numbers in the thread was you, so thought you did.

 

 

Nope, sorry. . Did go back and check and the thread was killing it on Fandango Pulse (RIP) analysis.  If we cared enough, we could probably extrapolate relative growth trends of Us versus other comps of the time period via Fandango and look at Nope.  But might not matter much given the disparity in pre-sale windows.

 

*double checks*

 

Looks like Us only had 12 days of pre-sales as it appeared on Eric's Fandango tracking at T-11, which makes Nope comps officially useless even if we could figure something out, unfortunately.  Prob another reason why I didn't track it.  By the time it was clear that it was gonna approach 70m, it was too late.  Welcome to trawl through the thread though to see if there is anything of interest.

 

Edited July 3, 2022 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

13 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Looks like Us only had 12 days of pre-sales as it appeared on Eric's Fandango tracking at T-11, which makes Nope comps officially useless even if we could figure something out, unfortunately.

No. No. US had hilarious 80-90 days pre-sales and was insanely backloaded. Lemme find it.

  

On 6/23/2022 at 11:38 AM, charlie Jatinder said:

Won't read much into sales yet. Too far out. I think US had similar trend.

 

US had 2300 whatever Fandango pulse meant till T-29 days in 50 days of sales. 
T-28 to T-11 added 3600.
T-10 to T-4 added 11000.

Final 4 days 91000.

 

 

Edited July 3, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

No. No. US had hilarious 80-90 days pre-sales and was insanely backloaded. Lemme find it.

 

 

Oh, did it?  Fuckin' a, that's crazy.  Never mind then.  

 

(FWIW, as I was trawling through the old thread just now, folks did let their excitement get the better of them as Us' pre-sales really ramped up on Fandango)

((some things never change apparently ))

Edited July 3, 2022 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

19 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Harkins Saturday ~16.7K for Minions 2 vs 23K FRI. FRI finaled at 75K+, SAT could be 65K range. That's looks like a big drop. 

 

Santikos seems like same thing.

 

But let's see how day pan out as this is first time I am checking days other than previews.

Harkins Sunday 11,742 for Minions 2. 

 

Waiting for Final SAT numbers, will take 10-15 mins. Probably 56-58K final if SAT was 65K.

 

Edit: Since SAT is 68.8K aka 52K walkins, I suppose SUN can be around 62-64K. $28-29M SUN I guess.

Edited July 3, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[Cooper Legion]

Harkins Sat PS worked white well, -13ish. -12 Sun would be a bit steep but within range of normalcy.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 7/2/2022 at 2:32 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

For reference, Minions 2 Harkins Friday - 75391/161902 (696 showings) ~$800K

Minions 2 Harkins Saturday - 68793/175177 (736 showings) ~$700K

 

Around 12-13% drop from FRI which will give around $33M but considering CAN may have bigger drop and may be Harkins does better on SAT than FRI like Cinemark, so could be $32-33M ish. 

[M37]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 is looking high 20s while MTC is looking low 20s. But MTC1 is worth 2x mtc2 and so you can do that math. Plus add other chains we are tracking like Harkins/Drafthouse/megaplex etc and you can get a better picture. I am not sure if@DAJK can provide some ratio between Thor and DS2? MCU movies do very well in Canada as well. 

 

I assume OS rollout would start from wednesday. Let us see how that goes. 

Think this it the right perspective: Alpha (and Drafthouse) are tracking towards a high $20s preview figure, but most of the other samples are in mid if not low $20s range, with Denver and Sacramento (surprise!) tracking closely to the (unweighted) average

 

 

It could be that the advance sale heavy markets are just ahead of the curve, others will catch-up ... or that Thor is going to overindex towards metro areas, not cast as wide a GA/demo net as Dr Strange, and winds up towards the lower end of current tracking. Think I'm going to go start that club after all 😉