The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric the Minion]

On 7/17/2022 at 12:27 AM, Eric Odinson said:

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	599	13040	4.59%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 55

 

Comp

0.463x of F9 T-5 (3.29M)

0.690x of Space Jam 2 T-5 (9.04M)

0.781x of Halloween Kills T-5 (3.79M)

0.982x of Scream T-5 (3.44M)

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	740	13040	5.67%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 141

 

Comp

0.528x of F9 T-4 (3.75M)

0.852x of Space Jam 2 Sunday Before Release (11.17M)

0.862x of Halloween Kills T-4 (4.18M)

1.108x of Scream T-4 (3.88M)

[Eric the Minion]

On 7/17/2022 at 12:32 AM, Eric Odinson said:

DC League of Super Pets Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	42	37	6629	0.56%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

 

Comp

0.755x of Jungle Cruise T-12 (2.04M)

0.201x of Minions 2 T-12 (2.16M)

DC League of Super Pets Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	42	40	6629	0.60%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 3

 

Comp

0.800x of Jungle Cruise T-11 (2.16M)

0.213x of Minions 2 T-11 (2.29M)

[charlie Jatinder]

23 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Harkins Saturday

 

Crawdads - 9049/38921 (206 showings) $88,438

 

Y'day Harkins was 1.61%, assuming 1.61-1.67% today gives $5.3-5.5M.

 

Sunday pre-sales are quite good. 2193/38114 (200 showings) $21,028, just 15% down from SAT. That should normally mean better hold than 15% but can it really have a sub 15% drop? 

 

Harkins Sunday

 

Crawdads - 7665/38108 (200 showings) $72,176

 

Not that strong day as pre-sales would have suggested. This should be $4.3-4.4M. 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 7/12/2022 at 5:51 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Nope Harkins T-10 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
141	41,499	366	0.88%	$5,183	$14.16

 

Comps

0.532x of Minions - $6M (adj for ATP)

~2.600x of Where the Crawdads Sing

Nope Harkins T-4 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
167	46,917	895	1.91%	$12,447	$13.91

 

Comps

0.499x of Minions - $5.6M (adj for ATP)

1.744x of Where the Crawdads Sing - $4M

 

Not good signs dropping against Crawdads like that. It can still explode like The Black Phone and US on final day, so let's see.

[Krissykins]

13 hours ago, Nikostar said:

So what is Nope looking at right now. 35-40 million opening?

With ~$4m previews I’d say that looks like a likely range. But Candyman did 11.57x its preview number. Nope could be walk-up heavy. 

[Porthos]

On 7/17/2022 at 2:29 AM, Porthos said:

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	86	12930	13691	761	5.56%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

80

 

T-5 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	124.75		56	610		0/87	14514/15124	4.03%		2352	32.36%		5.11m
LTBC	37.90		183	2008		0/173	26190/28198	7.12%		7712	9.87%		4.40m
NTTD	49.22		119	1546		0/145	20907/22453	6.89%		3737	20.36%		3.05m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

T-5 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	46.51		113	1606		0/89	11878/13484	11.91%		4407	16.95%		3.46m
Nope (adj)	—		77	747		0/72	10733/11480	6.51%		—	—		—

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Nope (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:     129/3959  [3.26% sold]
Matinee:     30/859  [3.49% | 3.94% of all tickets sold]

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	86	12735	13691	956	6.98%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

195

 

T-4 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	127.30		141	751		0/87	14373/15124	4.97%		2352	40.65%		5.22m
LTBC	38.85		453	2461		0/183	26301/28762	8.56%		7712	12.40%		4.51m
NTTD	56.14		157	1703		0/145	20757/22460	7.58%		3737	25.58%		3.48m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-4 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	51.05		200	1806		0/89	11678/13484	13.39%		4407	20.92%		3.80m
Nope (adj)	—		175	922		0/72	10558/11480	8.03%		—	—		—

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Nope (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:     187/3959  [4.72% sold]
Matinee:     59/859  [6.87% | 6.17% of all tickets sold]

Edited July 19, 2022 by Porthos

[M37]

Those are some strong Sunday sales for Nope, will see if @katnisscinnaplex Jax/Pho/Ral markets follow suit (~840-870).  Not entirely surprising given … well, let’s just say that was the signal I was looking for 
 

Will run full analysis (time permitting) later today, but at first glance, looking to me like $5M+ for Thursday, wouldn’t rule out $6M with higher walk-up rate in summer. Will again suggest for those tracking that Venom 2 be added to the comp list (with ATP adj), as the final few days ramp up may follow similar trajectory 

[CJohn]

Nope needs some strong reviews. If that happens, it will be the push it needs for a stronger than expected OW.

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Easter Sunday	T-18	Jax	6	15	0	5	2,232	0.22%
		Phx	4	12	4	6	1,503	0.40%
		Ral	7	15	0	0	1,695	0.00%
	Total		17	42	4	11	5,430	0.20%
Nope	T-4	Jax	6	49	32	184	8,253	2.23%
		Phx	6	20	20	245	4,344	5.64%
		Ral	8	28	31	284	3,670	7.74%
	Total		20	97	83	713	16,267	4.38%
Super Pets	T-11	Jax	6	38	4	12	4,934	0.24%
		Phx	5	23	3	18	3,483	0.52%
		Ral	7	24	3	10	3,404	0.29%
	Total		18	85	10	40	11,821	0.34%
Vengeance	T-11	Jax	3	4	0	2	286	0.70%
		Phx	4	8	2	2	992	0.20%
		Ral	4	4	1	1	317	0.32%
	Total		11	16	3	5	1,595	0.31%

 

Nope T-4 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .888x (3.68m)

 - NTTD - .718x (3.73m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.39x (5.7m)

 - F9 - .575x (4.08m)

 - Morbius - .725x (4.13m)

 - Dune - missed

 - Halloween Kills - .994x (4.82m)

 

Super Pets T-11 comps

 - Minions 2 - missed

 - Sonic 2 - .102x (509k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Easter Sunday	T-17	Jax	6	15	0	5	2,232	0.22%
		Phx	4	12	1	7	1,503	0.47%
		Ral	7	15	0	0	1,695	0.00%
	Total		17	42	1	12	5,430	0.22%
Nope	T-3	Jax	6	49	35	219	8,253	2.65%
		Phx	6	20	48	293	4,344	6.74%
		Ral	8	28	21	305	3,670	8.31%
	Total		20	97	104	817	16,267	5.02%
Super Pets	T-10	Jax	6	38	0	12	4,934	0.24%
		Phx	5	23	3	21	3,483	0.60%
		Ral	7	24	0	10	3,404	0.29%
	Total		18	85	3	43	11,821	0.36%
Vengeance	T-10	Jax	3	4	0	2	286	0.70%
		Phx	4	8	1	3	992	0.30%
		Ral	4	4	0	1	317	0.32%
	Total		11	16	1	6	1,595	0.38%

 

Nope T-3 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .893x (3.706m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - Suicide Squad - 1.324x (5.43m)

 - F9 - .564x (4.01m)

 - Morbius - .729x (4.15m)

 - Dune - .693x (3.53m)

 - Halloween Kills - .951x (4.61m)

 - Venom 2 - .512x (5.94m)

 

Super Pets T-10 comps

 - Minions 2 - missed

 - Sonic 2 - .102x (509k)

 - Bad Guys - 1.162x (1.336m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .406x (1.095m)

[M37]

4 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Easter Sunday	T-17	Jax	6	15	0	5	2,232	0.22%
		Phx	4	12	1	7	1,503	0.47%
		Ral	7	15	0	0	1,695	0.00%
	Total		17	42	1	12	5,430	0.22%
Nope	T-3	Jax	6	49	35	219	8,253	2.65%
		Phx	6	20	48	293	4,344	6.74%
		Ral	8	28	21	305	3,670	8.31%
	Total		20	97	104	817	16,267	5.02%
Super Pets	T-10	Jax	6	38	0	12	4,934	0.24%
		Phx	5	23	3	21	3,483	0.60%
		Ral	7	24	0	10	3,404	0.29%
	Total		18	85	3	43	11,821	0.36%
Vengeance	T-10	Jax	3	4	0	2	286	0.70%
		Phx	4	8	1	3	992	0.30%
		Ral	4	4	0	1	317	0.32%
	Total		11	16	1	6	1,595	0.38%

 

Nope T-3 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .893x (3.706m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - Suicide Squad - 1.324x (5.43m)

 - F9 - .564x (4.01m)

 - Morbius - .729x (4.15m)

 - Dune - .693x (3.53m)

 - Halloween Kills - .951x (4.61m)

 - Venom 2 - .512x (5.94m)

 

Super Pets T-10 comps

 - Minions 2 - missed

 - Sonic 2 - .102x (509k)

 - Bad Guys - 1.162x (1.336m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .406x (1.095m)

Good for Jax & Pho, but Raleigh coming up short - too busy grabbing their Crawdads tickets I guess 

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Crawdads (Sun)	PLF	4	41	79	520	15.19%	$13.05	$1,031.23
		Standard	62	325	613	7,178	8.54%	$9.96	$6,106.49
	Total		66	366	692	7,698	8.99%	$10.31	$7,137.72
T-4	Nope	PLF	21	23	224	5,307	4.22%	$15.60	$3,494.97
		Standard	22	10	78	2,875	2.71%	$10.94	$853.20
	Total		43	33	302	8,182	3.69%	$14.40	$4,348.17

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Crawdads (Sun)	N	35	74	146	4,133	3.53%	$13.20	$1,927.32
		Y	31	292	546	3,565	15.32%	$9.54	$5,210.40
	Total		66	366	692	7,698	8.99%	$10.31	$7,137.72
T-0	Paws of Fury (Sun)	N	20	9	13	2,034	0.64%	$12.41	$161.31
		Y	30	143	221	3,051	7.24%	$9.00	$1,988.38
	Total		50	152	234	5,085	4.60%	$9.19	$2,149.69
T-4	Nope	N	33	32	249	6,279	3.97%	$15.22	$3,789.54
		Y	10	1	53	1,903	2.79%	$10.54	$558.63
	Total		43	33	302	8,182	3.69%	$14.40	$4,348.17

 

Nope T-4 comps

 - TG2 - missed

 - FB3 - missed

 - JW3 - missed

 

Crawdads Sun unadjusted comp

 - Elvis - .297x (2.53m)

 

Paws Sun unadjusted comp

 - Minions - .047x (1.22m)

 

Crawdads had a better day than expected and Paws came out on the light side.

 

Average Fri/Sat adjusted comps using current estimates put Crawdads at 4.25m and Paws at 1.36m

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	Nope	PLF	21	63	287	5,307	5.41%	$15.65	$4,492.06
		Standard	22	14	92	2,875	3.20%	$11.09	$1,019.90
	Nope Total		43	77	379	8,182	4.63%	$14.54	$5,511.96

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	Nope	N	33	69	318	6,279	5.06%	$15.29	$4,862.93
		Y	10	8	61	1,903	3.21%	$10.64	$649.03
	Nope Total		43	77	379	8,182	4.63%	$14.54	$5,511.96

 

Nope T-3 comps

 - Crawdads - 2.153x (4.31m)

 - Morbius - .402x (2.29m)

 - Northman - 3.61x (4.87m)

[Tinalera]

Nope

SW/Toronto Ontario T-4 (T-0 Friday)

 

NOPE	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	20	66	319	14673	14992	0.021278015
Fri	5	20	330	6230	6560	0.050304878

 

Comps

 

x.4850 Minions 2 (1.56 Million Canada only, 33 Million Canada/US)

x.0429 Thor 4 (210 thousand Canada only, 2,96 million Canada/US)

x 1.152 Lightyear (864 thousand, 23.04 Million Canada/US)

[el sid]

That was a strange counting today.
 

Nope, counted today at 11am EST for Thursday, July 21:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 110 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 201 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 23 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 14 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 54 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 293 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 849 (9 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.544.

Up poor 14%. I counted some shows twice because I thought I made a mistake. But it's correct.

Comps (all counted on Monday for Thursday): The Forever Purge had 104 sold tickets,

AQP II had 747 sold tickets,

Halloween Kills had 591

and Scream had 1.004 sold tickets.

 

Well, the jump was way worse than expected. Last week I was sure that it reaches 2k+ tickets and normally and especially for horror films these projections work. Idk what happened here. Maybe it's because it went on sale pretty early and therefore already reached a high level. In comparison to other films today's number is still very good as you can see but those films had good jumps over the next days.
But Nope's Friday presales look better in my theaters.


Nope, counted today at 11am EST for Friday, July 22:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 207 (11 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 168 (11 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 6 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 6 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 14 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 345 (11 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 870 (16 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.616.

Up good 93%. As I said, strange.
Comps (all counted on Monday for Friday): Old had 150 sold tickets,

The Invisible Man had 323,

Candyman had 180,

HK had 750 sold tickets

and Scream had 588 sold tickets.

Edited July 18, 2022 by el sid

[PenguinHyphy]

1 minute ago, el sid said:

That was a strange counting today.
 

Nope, counted today at 11am EST for Thursday, July 21:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 110 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 201 (6 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 23 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 14 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 54 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 293 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 849 (9 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.544.

Up poor 14%. I counted some shows twice because I thought I made a mistake. But it's correct.

Comps (all counted on Monday for Thursday😞 The Forever Purge had 104 sold tickets,

AQP II had 747 sold tickets,

Halloween Kills had 591

and Scream had 1.004 sold tickets.

 

Well, the jump was way worse than expected. Last week I was sure that it reaches 2k+ tickets and normally and especially for horror films these projections work. Idk what happened here. Maybe it's because it went on sale pretty early and therefore already reached a high level. In comparison to other films today's number is still very good as you can see but thoese films had good jumps over the next days.
But Nope's Friday presales look better in my theaters.


Nope, counted today at 11am EST for Friday, July 22:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 207 (11 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 168 (11 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 6 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 6 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 14 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 345 (11 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 870 (16 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.616.

Up good 93%. As I said, strange.
Comps (all counted on Monday for Friday): Old had 150 sold tickets,

The Invisible Man had 323,

Candyman had 180,

HK had 750 sold tickets

and Scream had 588 sold tickets.

The count is strange because you probably did not count the IMAX live events 

[Tinalera]

Getting the feeling at least up here Nope is going to be more wom/walkup. Cineplex looks like its really going to wait till Wed to drop more friday shows-though usually the theatres I follow, most of them usually have some Friday showings, right now there's only 5 (by comparison there are my usual 20 theatre showings for Thursdays). I havent seen much previous horror type comps for Canada so I can't say if this is a regular thing for Canadians (still think IMO this should have been at very a least a mid Sept to Oct release)

 

Something that just occurred to me, I haven't mentioned in my counts, most if not all the shows so far are IMAX only-which is really interesting, and maybe accounts (because Imax is crazy expensive up here), that might be the hesitation-people may not feel its an Imax type movie (though judging from the trailers I can certainly see why they're going Imax with the subject matter)

Edited July 18, 2022 by Tinalera

[el sid]

10 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

The count is strange because you probably did not count the IMAX live events 

No, I didn't. It had in 3 of my 7 theaters shows with 574 sold tickets (combined).

 

Mostly I don't add these extra shows (it wasn't helpful, e.g. my Bond prediction was way off, way too high) and also didn't add them last week when I counted Nope so I was really surprised that the jump is so small. Maybe people booked tickets for the IMAX live events instead but I doubt it because the jumps in all 7 theaters were poor. But as I said, overall the Thursday presales are still good.

[PenguinHyphy]

1 minute ago, el sid said:

No, I didn't. It had in 3 of my 7 theaters shows with 574 sold tickets (combined).

 

Mostly I don't add these extra shows (it wasn't helpful, e.g. my Bond prediction was way off, way too high) and also didn't add them last week when I counted Nope so I was really surprised that the jump is so small. Maybe people booked tickets for the IMAX live events instead but I doubt it because the jumps in all 7 theaters were poor. But as I said, overall the Thursday presales are still good.

 

I do not know about those theaters specifically, but I know that my Lincoln ticket that I got weeks ago at seven something in IMAX was not one of those events. I got an email that it was moved to that last Thursday or Friday, so I am assuming that they just moved IMAX shows in place of posting new ones. I am just saying that if you have been tracking the shows for weeks, then you might have previously included those moved tickets 

[filmlover]

Buried in this weekend's update:

 

Quote

Paws of Fury was on this release date before Warner Bros. decided to push Black Adam, originally at the end of this month, and replace it with DC League of Super-Pets, which is tracking to do around $30M.

Box Office: ‘Thor’ Falls In 2nd Frame, ‘Where The Crawdads Are’ $17M – Deadline

[Tinalera]

16 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Buried in this weekend's update:

 

Box Office: ‘Thor’ Falls In 2nd Frame, ‘Where The Crawdads Are’ $17M – Deadline

 

Not sure if I agree with the "Paws would put out in theatres first to show it had big film pedigree before going to streaming" idea (not a quote, merely my own interpretative paraphrasing. 

 

 

 

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/16/2022 at 3:07 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Nope Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

137

1796

7.63%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

154

2004

7.68%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
687	75	17420	3.94%	15	83

 

AMCs sold	521
Cinemarks sold	67
Regals sold	56
Harkins sold	43

 

1.70x Halloween Kills T-5 (8.33M)

Nope Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

198

1796

11.02%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

194

2004

9.68%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
945	258	17420	5.42%	15	83

 

AMCs sold	709
Cinemarks sold	95
Regals sold	81
Harkins sold	60

 

1.33x Scream T-3 (4.66M)

1.73x Halloween Kills T-3 (8.47M)

1.52x Suicide Squad T-3 (6.25M)

Edited July 18, 2022 by Inceptionzq