The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Tinalera said:

 

Not sure if I agree with the "Paws would put out in theatres first to show it had big film pedigree before going to streaming" idea (not a quote, merely my own interpretative paraphrasing. 

 

 

 

I think they're referring to the fact Paws was supposed to come out the last weekend of July in hopes of being the last kids movie of the summer until Super-Pets took that spot and forced them to move.

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/16/2022 at 3:10 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Nope Megaplex

 

T-5 Thursday(44 showings): 173(+24)/14880

0.972x Halloween Kills T-5 (4.76M)

 

T-6 Friday(58 showings): 79(+5)/12233

0.313x Halloween Kills T-6 (5.65M)

 

T-7 Saturday(58 showings): 56(+21)/12233

0.549x Halloween Kills T-7 (9.51M)

 

T-8 Sunday(52 showings): 20(+8)11331

0.952x Halloween Kills T-8 (8.81M)

Nope Megaplex [2 days of sales]

 

T-3 Thursday(44 showings): 270(+97)/14880

0.826x Scream T-3 (2.89M)

1.15x Halloween Kills T-3 (5.60M)

0.877x Suicide Squad T-3 (3.59M)

 

T-4 Friday(58 showings): 121(+42)/12233

0.469x Scream T-4 (4.63M)

0.305x Halloween Kills T-4 (5.49M)

0.545x Suicide Squad T-4 (4.36M)

 

T-5 Saturday(58 showings): 59(+3)/12233

0.465x Scream T-5 (4.72M)

0.366x Halloween Kills T-5 (6.35M)

 

T-6 Sunday(52 showings): 24(+4)/11331

1.04x Scream T-6 (6.74M)

0.800x Halloween Kills T-6 (7.40M)

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/16/2022 at 3:11 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Nope Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-5 Thursday(112 showings): 4475(+363)/17592 ATP: $15.84

 

T-6 Friday(149 showings): 4165(+493)/25056 ATP: $16.26

 

T-7 Saturday(160 showings): 3747(+510)/26653 ATP: $15.32

 

T-8 Sunday(129 showings): 1903(+211)/21916 ATP: $15.40

Nope Alamo Drafthouse[2 days of sales]

 

T-3 Thursday(124 showings): 5599(+1124)/19354 ATP: $15.74

1.64x Scream T-3 (5.73M)

 

T-4 Friday(177 showings): 5580(+1415)/28524 ATP: $16.10

1.87x Scream T-4 (18.44M)

 

T-5 Saturday(188 showings): 5027(+1280)/30136 ATP: $15.21

2.51x Scream T-5 (25.54M)

 

T-6 Sunday(154 showings): 2779(+876)/24458 ATP: $15.16

2.55x Scream T-6 (16.50M)

[el sid]

1 hour ago, PenguinHyphy said:

 

I do not know about those theaters specifically, but I know that my Lincoln ticket that I got weeks ago at seven something in IMAX was not one of those events. I got an email that it was moved to that last Thursday or Friday, so I am assuming that they just moved IMAX shows in place of posting new ones. I am just saying that if you have been tracking the shows for weeks, then you might have previously included those moved tickets 

Indeed I noticed that Nope lost one show e.g. in NY (from 6 to 5). And wondered where the sold tickets have gone...and now it's 5 plus 1 IMAX live event. Makes sense.

[Tinalera]

2 hours ago, filmlover said:

I think they're referring to the fact Paws was supposed to come out the last weekend of July in hopes of being the last kids movie of the summer until Super-Pets took that spot and forced them to move.

In that context it makes a little more sense. I think I saw the Super Pets thing and Paws thing as maybe two different things and my brain doesn't always match up context and so I may have missed that inflection/suggestion. Hence why I always try and state things as being the way I understand it, as opposed to it being black white, I try to keep myself out of trouble that way

[M37]

13 hours ago, M37 said:

Those are some strong Sunday sales for Nope, will see if @katnisscinnaplex Jax/Pho/Ral markets follow suit (~840-870).  Not entirely surprising given … well, let’s just say that was the signal I was looking for 
 

Will run full analysis (time permitting) later today, but at first glance, looking to me like $5M+ for Thursday, wouldn’t rule out $6M with higher walk-up rate in summer. Will again suggest for those tracking that Venom 2 be added to the comp list (with ATP adj), as the final few days ramp up may follow similar trajectory 

After delving into the data a bit more, going to stick by this initial assessment, although somewhat tentatively. However, not a whole lot of comps for horror, and the variance between markets among the titles with similar current and expected pace is pretty broad; for example: Denver running hot at $8.47 vs HK and while Philly lags at $4.18. (I have a theory about those discrepancies in early sales). That makes the overall outlook murkier, and hopefully we see some convergence by Thursday.

 

In general: would expect an increase in total ticket sales from Sunday (T-4) to T-0/1hr of roughly  +250% (3.5x), though it may vary a fair amount by market, and those lagging could spike all the way up to +300% (4x). Those growth rates to the finish line would point to a preview in the mid-$5M range, but lets see how the week plays out

[Eric the Minion]

22 hours ago, Eric Odinson said:

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	740	13040	5.67%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 141

 

Comp

0.528x of F9 T-4 (3.75M)

0.852x of Space Jam 2 Sunday Before Release (11.17M)

0.862x of Halloween Kills T-4 (4.18M)

1.108x of Scream T-4 (3.88M)

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	79	945	15520	6.09%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 205

 

Comp

0.584x of F9 T-3 (4.14M)

0.783x of Space Jam 2 Monday Before Release (10.26M)

4.004x of Candyman T-3 (7.61M)

0.886x of Halloween Kills T-3 (4.29M)

1.183x of Scream T-3 (4.14M)

2.540x of The Black Phone T-3 (7.62M)

 

Finally get to use a Candyman comp, which is super, duper positive, and I threw in Black Phone for kicks. Either way, things are looking quite positive.

[Eric the Minion]

22 hours ago, Eric Odinson said:

DC League of Super Pets Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	42	40	6629	0.60%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 3

 

Comp

0.800x of Jungle Cruise T-11 (2.16M)

0.213x of Minions 2 T-11 (2.29M)

DC League of Super Pets Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	42	42	6629	0.63%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 2

 

Comp

0.712x of Jungle Cruise T-10 (1.92M)

0.192x of Minions 2 T-10 (2.06M)

[charlie Jatinder]

58 minutes ago, Eric Odinson said:

Finally get to use a Candyman comp, which is super, duper positive, and I threw in Black Phone for kicks. Either way, things are looking quite positive.

Candyman did big in next 3 days, will be interesting if Nope can manage that. T-2 day of Candyman was 148, I am expecting Nope to be around 300-350. With that pace the final comp should settle around 4-5M I think.

[ThomasNicole]

Nope previews starts 3pm too?

[Porthos]

21 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	86	12735	13691	956	6.98%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

195

 

T-4 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	127.30		141	751		0/87	14373/15124	4.97%		2352	40.65%		5.22m
LTBC	38.85		453	2461		0/183	26301/28762	8.56%		7712	12.40%		4.51m
NTTD	56.14		157	1703		0/145	20757/22460	7.58%		3737	25.58%		3.48m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-4 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	51.05		200	1806		0/89	11678/13484	13.39%		4407	20.92%		3.80m
Nope (adj)	—		175	922		0/72	10558/11480	8.03%		—	—		—

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Nope (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:     187/3959  [4.72% sold]
Matinee:     59/859  [6.87% | 6.17% of all tickets sold]

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	108	15099	16315	1216	7.45%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

260

 

T-3 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	135.87		144	895		0/100	15314/16209	5.52%		2352	51.70%		5.57m
LTBC	40.04		576	3037		0/216	28173/31210	9.73%		7712	15.77%		4.64m
NTTD	64.65		178	1881		0/157	21272/23153	8.12%		3737	32.54%		4.01m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-3 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	56.42		257	2063		0/122	15198/17261	11.95%		4407	26.41%		4.19m
Nope (adj)	—		242	1164		0/94	12940/14104	8.25%		—	—		—

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Nope (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:     246/3959  [6.21% sold]
Matinee:      71/859  [8.27% | 5.84% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Nope previews starts 3pm too?

 

...

 

Nope.

 

(4pm)

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Easter Sunday	T-17	Jax	6	15	0	5	2,232	0.22%
		Phx	4	12	1	7	1,503	0.47%
		Ral	7	15	0	0	1,695	0.00%
	Total		17	42	1	12	5,430	0.22%
Nope	T-3	Jax	6	49	35	219	8,253	2.65%
		Phx	6	20	48	293	4,344	6.74%
		Ral	8	28	21	305	3,670	8.31%
	Total		20	97	104	817	16,267	5.02%
Super Pets	T-10	Jax	6	38	0	12	4,934	0.24%
		Phx	5	23	3	21	3,483	0.60%
		Ral	7	24	0	10	3,404	0.29%
	Total		18	85	3	43	11,821	0.36%
Vengeance	T-10	Jax	3	4	0	2	286	0.70%
		Phx	4	8	1	3	992	0.30%
		Ral	4	4	0	1	317	0.32%
	Total		11	16	1	6	1,595	0.38%

 

Nope T-3 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .893x (3.706m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - Suicide Squad - 1.324x (5.43m)

 - F9 - .564x (4.01m)

 - Morbius - .729x (4.15m)

 - Dune - .693x (3.53m)

 - Halloween Kills - .951x (4.61m)

 - Venom 2 - .512x (5.94m)

 

Super Pets T-10 comps

 - Minions 2 - missed

 - Sonic 2 - .102x (509k)

 - Bad Guys - 1.162x (1.336m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .406x (1.095m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Easter Sunday	T-16	Jax	6	15	0	5	2,232	0.22%
		Phx	4	12	0	7	1,503	0.47%
		Ral	7	15	0	0	1,695	0.00%
	Total		17	42	0	12	5,430	0.22%
Nope	T-2	Jax	6	49	81	300	8,253	3.64%
		Phx	6	28	63	356	5,512	6.46%
		Ral	8	43	71	376	4,972	7.56%
ATP: 14.56	Total		20	120	215	1,032	18,737	5.51%
Super Pets	T-9	Jax	6	38	3	15	4,934	0.30%
		Phx	5	23	4	25	3,483	0.72%
		Ral	7	23	5	15	3,340	0.45%
ATP: 12.57	Total		18	84	12	55	11,757	0.47%
Vengeance	T-9	Jax	3	4	1	3	286	1.05%
		Phx	4	8	0	3	992	0.30%
		Ral	4	4	0	1	317	0.32%
	Total		11	16	1	7	1,595	0.44%

 

Nope T-2 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .946x (3.925m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - Suicide Squad - 1.414x (5.796m)

 - F9 - .596x (4.235m)

 - Morbius - .728x (4.15m)

 - Dune - .685x (3.49m)

 - Halloween Kills - .927x (4.5m)

 - Venom 2 - .509x (5.9m)

 

Super Pets T-9 comps

 - Minions 2 - .146x (1.56m)

 - Sonic 2 - .116x (578k)

 - Bad Guys - 1.34x (1.54m)

 - Jungle Cruise - .451x (1.22m)

 - Paws of Fury - 1.667x (842k)

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	Nope	PLF	21	63	287	5,307	5.41%	$15.65	$4,492.06
		Standard	22	14	92	2,875	3.20%	$11.09	$1,019.90
	Nope Total		43	77	379	8,182	4.63%	$14.54	$5,511.96

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-3	Nope	N	33	69	318	6,279	5.06%	$15.29	$4,862.93
		Y	10	8	61	1,903	3.21%	$10.64	$649.03
	Nope Total		43	77	379	8,182	4.63%	$14.54	$5,511.96

 

Nope T-3 comps

 - Crawdads - 2.153x (4.31m)

 - Morbius - .402x (2.29m)

 - Northman - 3.61x (4.87m)

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Nope	PLF	21	99	386	0	#DIV/0!	$15.68	$6,050.88
		Standard	33	58	150	160	93.75%	$11.09	$1,664.20
	Nope Total		54	157	536	160	335.00%	$14.39	$7,715.08

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Nope	N	44	150	468	160	292.50%	$15.01	$7,024.91
		Y	10	7	68	0	#DIV/0!	$10.15	$690.17
	Nope Total		54	157	536	160	335.00%	$14.39	$7,715.08

 

Nope T-2 comps

 - Crawdads - 2.17x (4.34m)

 - Morbius - .471x (2.69m)

 - Northman - 4.09x (5.52m)

[M37]

If Nope keeps up this sales pace, it's going to surprise quite a few people.  Not quite in Minions territory in terms of growth rate ... but also not that far from it either, on par with or ahead of Venom 2, way head of likes of F9 and even HK. Elvis better start looking over his shoulder for that #6 DOM spot for summer ...

 

I blame Universal for putting tickets on sale so damn early, then rolling out a marketing campaign that left people scratching heads a bit, failing to drive early sales. But they're catching up now, in a hurry

[ringedmortality]

19 minutes ago, M37 said:

If Nope keeps up this sales pace, it's going to surprise quite a few people.  Not quite in Minions territory in terms of growth rate ... but also not that far from it either, on par with or ahead of Venom 2, way head of likes of F9 and even HK. Elvis better start looking over his shoulder for that #6 DOM spot for summer ...

 

I blame Universal for putting tickets on sale so damn early, then rolling out a marketing campaign that left people scratching heads a bit, failing to drive early sales. But they're catching up now, in a hurry

 

80-90 million opening?

[M37]

4 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

80-90 million opening?

Whoa, let’s not go crazy now. General sentiment seem to be Nope falling on - or even missing - the lower end of current tracking, $40-$60M OW, while pacing is now pointing towards the upper half of that range. Though we’ve seen some low IMs of late, so a $7M+ Thur/ sub-$50M opening wouldn’t be entirely shocking either 

[Tinalera]

Nope

SW/Toronto Ontario T-3 (T-0)

 

NOPE	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	20	66	465	14527	14992	0.031016542
Fri	5	20	415	6045	6460	0.064241486

 

 

Comps

x .4457 Minions 2( 1.43 Million Canada Only, 21 Million Canada/US)

x 1.203 Lightyear(902 Thousand Canada Only, 24 Million Canada US)

x .0541 Thor 4 (260 Thousand Canada Only, 3.73 Million Canada/US)

x .0379 Dr Strange 2 (234 Thousand Canada Only, 3.4 million Canada/US)

[Nikostar]

Wonder will see a review bump for nope now that reactions are hitting.

[Inceptionzq]

On 7/18/2022 at 3:15 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Nope Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

198

1796

11.02%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

194

2004

9.68%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 2 DAYS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
945	258	17420	5.42%	15	83

 

AMCs sold	709
Cinemarks sold	95
Regals sold	81
Harkins sold	60

 

1.33x Scream T-3 (4.66M)

1.73x Halloween Kills T-3 (8.47M)

1.52x Suicide Squad T-3 (6.25M)

Nope Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

249

1796

13.86%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

226

2004

11.28%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1155	210	18906	6.11%	15	98

 

AMCs sold	849
Cinemarks sold	118
Regals sold	118
Harkins sold	70

 

1.33x Scream T-2 (4.67M)

1.64x Halloween Kills T-2 (8.04M)

1.55x Suicide Squad T-2 (6.36M)