The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[TwoMisfits]

38 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Thor L^T  did 29M previews for a 143M weekend. I expect WF to beat Thor OW, but by how much? I thought people were saying 200M OW was in play. Doesn't look like it from these numbers...

 

Some people were, but others weren't - there was a club for Wakanda Forever under $400M DOM that does have a few long time posters in it...

 

As this movie shapes up, I see it as a $250M OW movie for its main demo...and an $80M (aka Black Widow open) for the other demos...what that adds up to if you do all the Math is slightly beyond me, but I'd say $125-$155M OW seems about right...

Edited November 1, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[Maggie]

18 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

 but I'd say $125-$155M OW seems about right...

That would be bad. They should release the reviews earlier. The movie is apparently very good, even has Oscar hype

[JustLurking]

I'm not sure how you get to 125M even if it only goes to 25M previews. That range just seems impossible to me. Veteran day+november instead of summer pretty much guarantees an opening over thor so 155M feels more like a disaster lower bound than an upper bound to me.

Edited November 1, 2022 by JustLurking

[GOGODanca]

Black Panther will overindex with african american audiences, i'd expect family walkups over the weekend to be super good, now the average mcu stan probably is in wait and see mode about pre buying since MoM and L&T didn't live up to expectations, i'd expect a huge surge once the official reviews come out, i think people have wisened up to social embargoes kinda being just fluff overall

[Menor the Destroyer]

It's going to open well over Thor unless the reviews are absolute shit (which is quite unlikely). The weekend sales are a good bit higher. 

[ringedmortality]

I feel like every bit of marketing I’ve seen from Black Panther has been quite morose. I get why, but man it really does seem like it’s gonna be a bit of a downer.

[jedijake]

5 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

I feel like every bit of marketing I’ve seen from Black Panther has been quite morose. I get why, but man it really does seem like it’s gonna be a bit of a downer.

Good story BUT have you seen the TV ads for the past week? They've been pretty action-packed and upbeat. They've changed their tune quite a bit.

[cmbbox2390]

10 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

I feel like every bit of marketing I’ve seen from Black Panther has been quite morose. I get why, but man it really does seem like it’s gonna be a bit of a downer.

The tv spots give me the complete opposite feeling. They are all quite action heavy and show a bit of light hearted moments.

Edited November 1, 2022 by cmbbox2390

[Tinalera]

Black Panther 2

Nov 10/11 (T-9 Thu, T-10 Fri)

SW/Toronto Ontario (no comps)

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	20	135	5965	29660	35625	0.1674
Fri	20	161	5563	37789	43352	0.1283

 

 

Again to reiterate I don't always have daily comps up here due to how busy my stuff is. Not to mention when youre working with 20 theatres in a smaller geographic area, day to day stuff sometimes literally there is no change in sales, especially with further out T numbers. Not to mention still trying to get my own movies built up, so there are gaps. Seems most of comps tend to get more focussed around the T-7 ish mark.

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 10/31/2022 at 10:36 AM, Menor Reborn said:

I took numbers the last couple of days but was busy and forgot to post, so that's why the +bar doesn't match the difference from my last post. Also the numbers in the quoted post are a 3-day pace while this is a 1-day pace. 

 

Wakanda Forever Marcus Theaters (T-11)

 

Thursday:

Showtimes: 887

Seats Sold: 19414/126706 (+549)

0.853x Thor 4 (24.74 million)

 

Friday:

Showtimes: 1490 (+5)

Seats Sold: 18912/211354 (+1060)

1.335x Thor 4 (54.07 million)

 

Data from the morning:

 

Wakanda Forever Marcus T-10

Thursday:

Showtimes: 898 (+11)

Seats Sold: 19935/127749 (+521)

0.847x Thor 4 (24.56 million)

 

Friday:
Showtimes: 1487 (script had some errors on some showtimes)

Seats Sold: 19718/211046 (+806)

1.351x Thor 4 (54.72 million)

 

Again Veteran's Day fucking with things, Thursday and Friday comps are going in opposite directions. Also, one thing to note is that the Thor comps are from data taken in the evening while the WF data is taken on the equivalent morning, so they'll be understating the true value. 

Edited November 1, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[misterpepp]

December 2 has another wide release set... sort of. Sony's re-releasing Father Stu (as "Father Stu: Reborn") over that weekend, I guess to get people into the holiday spirit? I dunno, it's odd. (EDIT: It's a new edited PG-13 version)

 

Other holiday-related news: Violent Night will be getting IMAX screens along with Dolby Cinema.

 

Lastly, Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio is opening in theaters on November 18. Hearing Regal will be one of the major chains to play it.

Edited November 2, 2022 by datpepper

[filmlover]

lmao a PG-13 edition of Father Stu. Reminds me of when they re-released The King's Speech a few weeks after it won the Oscar with a sanitized version.

 

 

 

The Biggest Movies Coming to Theaters in November 2022. Read more: https://t.co/rUg2AyFeMe #ArmageddonTime #OnePieceFilmRed #BlackPantherWakandaForever #SheSaid #TheMenu #GlassOnionAKnivesOutMystery #StrangeWorld #Devotion #TheFabelmans #BonesAndAll #BoxOffice

— Boxoffice Pro (@BoxOffice) November 1, 2022

The highlight of the entire article:

 

Quote

Although, really, there’s arguably never been a movie with quite the same plot as Bones and All in film history. 

 

[misterpepp]

I was thinking about other theatrical toned-down edits, only other ones I've got are Deadpool 2/Once Upon a Deadpool and The Passion of the Christ/The Passion Recut, along with filmlover's mention of The King's Speech. I know there were "classroom editions" of films like Glory produced, but they only went directly to home video.

 

Father Stu is an instance where I'm not sure why they even made the movie as an R in the first place. Great way to turn off the faith-based evangelical crowds. Seems too late to be fixing that mistake, but I guess they'll try what they can.

Edited November 2, 2022 by datpepper

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, datpepper said:

Father Stu is an instance where I'm not sure why they even made the movie as an R in the first place. Great way to turn off the faith-based evangelical crowds. Seems too late to be fixing that mistake, but I guess they'll try what they can.

Marky Mark probably went into it thinking it was going to be his Oscah vehicle. 

[WrathOfHan]

Not sure if One Piece is gonna hit 10M but I can dream. It's still a strong increase from the last film regardless.

[ZackM]

13 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	65	0	4	22	15
Seats Added	5,573	0	1,060	1,872	1,123
Seats Sold	5,555	4,381	4,188	5,612	5,892
10/31/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	439	7,445	204,843	1,157,417	17.70%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	26	132	353	649
ATP
$16.98
Black Panther Double Feature Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days
10/31/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	92	96	7,287	22,291	32.69%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	5	8	16	27
ATP
$17.58

 

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10	$26.4	$26.3	$22.5	$22.9
T-11	$26.4	$26.3	$22.3	$22.7
T-12	$26.6	$26.5	$22.2	$22.7
T-13	$26.7	$26.6	$22.0	$22.5
T-14	$26.9	$26.8	$21.7	$22.2
T-15	$26.7	$26.6	$21.3	$21.8
T-16	$26.8	$26.7	$21.2	$21.7
T-17	$26.9	$26.8	$21.2	$21.6
T-18	$27.2	$27.1	$21.4	$21.8

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	162	65	0	4	22
Seats Added	18,043	5,573	0	1,060	1,872
Seats Sold	7,115	5,555	4,381	4,188	5,612
11/1/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	439	7,607	211,958	1,175,460	18.03%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	29	145	377	683
ATP
$16.94
Black Panther Double Feature Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days
11/1/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	92	96	7,471	22,291	33.52%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	5	10	16	29
ATP
$17.58

 

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9	$26.6	$26.4	$22.5	$22.9
T-10	$26.4	$26.3	$22.5	$22.9
T-11	$26.4	$26.3	$22.3	$22.7
T-12	$26.6	$26.5	$22.2	$22.7
T-13	$26.7	$26.6	$22.0	$22.5
T-14	$26.9	$26.8	$21.7	$22.2
T-15	$26.7	$26.6	$21.3	$21.8
T-16	$26.8	$26.7	$21.2	$21.7
T-17	$26.9	$26.8	$21.2	$21.6
T-18	$27.2	$27.1	$21.4	$21.8

 

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	162	65	0	4	22
Seats Added	18,043	5,573	0	1,060	1,872
Seats Sold	7,115	5,555	4,381	4,188	5,612
11/1/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	439	7,607	211,958	1,175,460	18.03%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	29	145	377	683
ATP
$16.94
Black Panther Double Feature Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 days
11/1/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	92	96	7,471	22,291	33.52%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	5	10	16	29
ATP
$17.58

 

 

 

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9	$26.6	$26.4	$22.5	$22.9
T-10	$26.4	$26.3	$22.5	$22.9
T-11	$26.4	$26.3	$22.3	$22.7
T-12	$26.6	$26.5	$22.2	$22.7
T-13	$26.7	$26.6	$22.0	$22.5
T-14	$26.9	$26.8	$21.7	$22.2
T-15	$26.7	$26.6	$21.3	$21.8
T-16	$26.8	$26.7	$21.2	$21.7
T-17	$26.9	$26.8	$21.2	$21.6
T-18	$27.2	$27.1	$21.4	$21.8

 

Stronger day than Thor which sold just 6017 tickets if I am not wrong(it dropped from Monday). So it could be the start of upward trend against Thor. 

[Eric Prime]

On 10/31/2022 at 11:16 PM, Eric Carey said:

One Piece Film: Red Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	46	429	7679	5.59%

 

Comp

0.390x of Jujutsu Kaisen 0 T-3 (1.12M)

0.444x of Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero T-3 (1.91M)

One Piece Film: Red Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	54	474	8739	5.42%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 45

 

Comp

0.383x of Jujutsu Kaisen 0 T-2 (1.1M)

0.433x of Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero T-2 (1.86M)

[Eric Prime]

On 10/31/2022 at 11:27 PM, Eric Carey said:

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	249	7689	44115	17.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 184

 

Comp

0.451x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-10 (22.57M)

1.430x of The Batman T-10 (30.9M)

0.748x of Doctor Strange 2 T-10 (26.94M)

1.253x of Thor 4 T-10 (36.34M)

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-9 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	250	7982	44218	18.05%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 293

 

Comp

0.458x of Spider-Man: No Way Home T-9 (22.88M)

1.439x of The Batman T-9 (31.09M)

0.740x of Doctor Strange 2 T-9 (26.64M)

1.266x of Thor 4 T-9 (36.71M)

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

How is Fabelmans looking?