The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

22 hours ago, Porthos said:

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-24 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	138	19300	20620	1320	6.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

1320

 

Day 1 Comp                   [USE AT OWN RISK DUE TO UNCHARTED WATERS]

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune	335.03		394	394		0/74	11255/11649	3.38%		2915	45.28%		17.09m
TGM	87.07		1516	1516		0/256	34603/36119	4.20%		11474	11.50%		16.77m
JWD	184.62		715	715		0/158	21618/22333	3.20%		10966	12.04%		33.23m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

BONUS COMP FOR REFERENCE ONLY [WILL ABSOLUTELY GO UP IN THE COMING DAYS]

JWD T-24

77.10

22

1712

0/171

22072/23784

7.20%

10966

12.04%

13.88m

 

Regal:        271/7309  [3.71% sold]
Matinee:    229/2342 [9.78% | 17.35% of all tickets sold]
3D:          856/15630  [5.48% | 64.85% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:     695/7435  [9.35% | 54.62% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

I've said before and I'll say it again: Sacto likes it some Sci-Fi.

 

Very nice day in Sacramento, indeed (non CBM/SW division).  Actually managed to come pretty damn close to Top Gun: Maverick after all.  And folks might recall just how well that film did here on its first day of sales.

 

But because TGM blew up here, I'm more than a little afraid that the comp is underselling how well A2 did do tonight.  Unfortunately, the JWD comp over sells it, hence my little bonus comp (which naturally under sells it by more than a little). Somewhere between the two extremes is as good a guess as any.

 

On the flip side, I did get about four hours of sales post-trailer drop (I finished up my count about 45 minutes ago and I've been working on just what to include here tonight since then [including playing with my spreadsheet]), so there's a bit of a thumb on the scale there.

 

Dune I threw in mostly for shits and giggles and because of the insane PLF skew it had (at the time it was around 70%+ PLF penetration if memory serves).  Almost certainly won't follow its pattern but the PLF skew should help with the 3D skew A2 is gonna have.  Might end up dropping it in a couple of days and bring it back in the final few.

 

Either way, good start, IMO.  How good of a start we will find out in due time.

 

NB:  A couple of theaters have yet to put up their initial sets, but meh.  They should be up by tomorrow since Cinema West did indeed start trickling in.

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	142	19649	21338	1689	7.92%

 

Total Showings Added Today	4
Total Seats Added Today	718
Total Seats Sold Today	369

 

Day 2 Comp                   [USE AT OWN RISK DUE TO UNCHARTED WATERS]

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune	343.99		97	491		0/74	11158/11649	4.21%		2915	57.94%		17.54m
TGM	88.48		393	1909		0/257	34292/36201	5.27%		11474	14.72%		17.04m
JWD	180.26		222	937		0/158	21395/22332	4.20%		10966	15.40%		32.45m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

BONUS COMP FOR REFERENCE ONLY [WILL ABSOLUTELY GO UP TOMORROW]

JWD T-23

95.53

56

1768

0/179

22879/24647

7.17%

10966

15.40%

17.20m

 

Regal:        353/7309  [4.83% sold]
Matinee:    256/2671  [9.58% | 15.16% of all tickets sold]
3D:         1149/15634  [7.35% | 68.03% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:     954/7439  [12.82% | 58.38% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Switching to T-x comps exclusively, starting Thursday.

[Flopped]

General audiences will hate Bones & All. It's also just not very good. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Harkins Thanksgiving Previews

 

Strange World - 856/20184 (104 showings) $10,235

Devotion - 1135/16226 (95 showings) $10,906

Bones and All - 514/7891 (56 showings) $5,949

 

Everything mosly eh. Strange World looks like $550-600K previews, Devotion probably $600K+ and Bones and All $350K ish.

[DAJK]

Bones and All didn't play in any theatres in my area tonight. Doesn't start until tomorrow in most locations that got it. 

 

Devotion outperformed Strange World tonight, which wasn't surprising I guess given how muted buzz seems to be on Strange World. 

[Borobudur]

18 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Its lack of 3D screens outside bigger plexes. Most 3D screens are in bigger plexes, so smaller chains have no option but to go with 2D for now.

 

Harkins is one such chain, it has lower 3D share than others because 3D shows are very few. The Premium screens of the chain Cine1 & Cine Capri are best sellers and they are all 2D.

That is why it is likely to have its celling in opening weekend because the lack of ideal seat and 3D showtimes.  

[SchumacherFTW]

5 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

That is why it is likely to have its celling in opening weekend because the lack of ideal seat and 3D showtimes.  

I don't think a lack of standard 3D screens is going to cause an issue, PLF limitations are more likely to be a limiting factor. From everything I'm seeing though, demand is going to be comfortably met across all formats, this isn't an Endgame situation. 

[Cooper Legion]

PLF demand will be unmet, 2d normal demand and 3D normal demand met easily. Similar situation as most big openings, esp recently.

[Borobudur]

10 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

I don't think a lack of standard 3D screens is going to cause an issue, PLF limitations are more likely to be a limiting factor. From everything I'm seeing though, demand is going to be comfortably met across all formats, this isn't an Endgame situation. 

Can we assume all PLF are in 3D? NWH's opening weekend had 32% of the gross coming from PLF, that means around $80m of gross will be likely coming from PLF3D. Assuming standard 3D contribute another $20m, A2 could have >100m of 3D gross in its opening weekend or at least 60%.  I would take a 3D share of less than 50% as "3D flop" and hoping the % can go as high as 70%. 

[Porthos]

48 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

That is why it is likely to have its celling in opening weekend because the lack of ideal seat and 3D showtimes.  

 

41 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

I don't think a lack of standard 3D screens is going to cause an issue, PLF limitations are more likely to be a limiting factor. From everything I'm seeing though, demand is going to be comfortably met across all formats, this isn't an Endgame situation. 

 

It's also Day Two of ticket sales.  Still too early to make sweeping judgements one way or the other (aside from noting this isn't gonna be an Endgame situation).  I might not bet on this being as backloaded as, say, LTBC or Minions 2.  On the other hand, I wouldn't bet against it being more backloaded than JWD or similar films.

 

One thing I will note.  Right now, emphasis on RIGHT NOW, the total screen count for A2 on Thursday is fairly low relatively speaking in the Sacto area. 

 

While, short of the sort of skullduggery that @ringedmortality mentioned, local theaters can't add more PLF screens at their whim (though they CAN add late night screenings at a couple of locations), there is PLENTY of room for more screens to be added at non-PLF screens on Thursday.

 

I'm away from my main tracking computer at the moment, so I can't pull up screen counts at the moment, but there is easily room for another 150 to 200+ showtimes to be added locally, even with the approx 4 hour blocks needing to be set aside for this film (3+ hour run time + previews + theater cleanup + seating for next showing).  Maybe not all of them are 3D capable.  Honestly, I don't know what exactly goes into whether or not any given auditorium is capable of having 3D films.   But I still think there is plenty of room for more standard 3D screenings should the demand arise (which, as I've noted more than once - it hasn't.  Yet.)

 

It is true that the longer showtime will disproportionately affect theaters/chains without as many screens as larger multiplexes.  But I do think with how much the schedule was cleared for A2, it'll have all the room it needs should it blow up in many places.

 

(PLF limitation, on the other hand, is a whole different subject as SchumacherFTW rightfully points out)

Edited November 23, 2022 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

48 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

That is why it is likely to have its celling in opening weekend because the lack of ideal seat and 3D showtimes.  

This is just one small chains which lack 3D. There are still 16K+ 3D compatible screens in USA, most with bigger chains.

[SchumacherFTW]

The important thing to remember, the public is aware that Real D 3D is ass and should be avoided. IMAX and Dolby 3D though, good shit. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Avatar 2	T-23	Jax	5	69	384	384	10,350	3.71%
		Phx	6	70	292	292	10,839	2.69%
		Ral	8	64	302	302	8,035	3.76%
	Total		19	203	978	978	29,224	3.35%
Fabelmans	T-1	Jax	2	11	11	23	645	3.57%
		Phx	1	7	3	8	281	2.85%
		Ral	3	12	-1	16	1,522	1.05%
	Total		6	30	13	47	2,448	1.92%
Glass Onion	T-1	Jax	4	19	31	246	1,925	12.78%
		Phx	3	23	53	254	1,754	14.48%
		Ral	2	17	30	361	1,228	29.40%
	Total		9	59	114	861	4,907	17.55%
Heard the Bells	T-9	Jax	4	5	0	92	678	13.57%
		Phx	2	2	1	27	596	4.53%
		Ral	6	6	2	246	566	43.46%
	Total		12	13	3	365	1,840	19.84%
Puss Boots (EA)	T-4	Jax	4	4	0	76	366	20.77%
		Phx	5	5	8	91	488	18.65%
		Ral	6	6	8	61	757	8.06%
	Total		15	15	16	228	1,611	14.15%
Puss in Boots	T-29	Jax	5	29	0	4	3,051	0.13%
		Phx	5	25	7	17	3,084	0.55%
		Ral	6	35	0	19	4,013	0.47%
	Total		16	89	7	40	10,148	0.39%
Violent Night	T-9	Jax	5	18	1	22	1,974	1.11%
		Phx	5	14	2	18	2,161	0.83%
		Ral	6	13	7	32	1,485	2.15%
	Total		16	45	10	72	5,620	1.28%

 

Glass Onion T-1 comps (Opening day vs previews)

 - NTTD + EA - missed

 - F9 - .395x (2.8m)

 - Ghostbusters + EA - .596x (2.68m)

 - Top Gun 2 + EA - .114x (2.209m)

Fabelmans T-1 comps (Opening day vs previews)

 - House of Gucci - .129x (168k)

 - Elvis - .055x (175k)

 

Puss in Boots EA T-4 comps

 - Sing 2 EA - .406x

 - Sonic 2 EA - 1.02x (1.3m)

 

Violent Night T-9 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 1.938x (969k)

 - Bullet Train - .286x (957k)

 - Northman - .66x (890k)

 

I Heard the Bells T-9 comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - .783x (1.41m)

 

Avatar 2 Day 1 comps (22hr)

 - Eternals (23hr) - 1.282x (12.18m)

 - TG2 - .939x (18.13m)

 - JW3 - .984x (17.71m)

 

Puss in Boots T-29 comps

 - Nope - .234x (1.5m)

 - JW3 + EA - .023x (419k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Avatar 2	T-22	Jax	5	69	81	465	10,350	4.49%
		Phx	6	70	36	328	10,839	3.03%
		Ral	8	64	97	399	8,035	4.97%
	Total		19	203	214	1,192	29,224	4.08%
Fabelmans	T-0	Jax	3	15	9	32	1,037	3.09%
		Phx	1	8	10	18	320	5.63%
		Ral	3	12	13	29	1,522	1.91%
	Total		7	35	32	79	2,879	2.74%
Glass Onion	T-0	Jax	4	23	65	311	2,177	14.29%
		Phx	3	27	107	361	1,974	18.29%
		Ral	2	17	98	459	1,228	37.38%
	Total		9	67	270	1,131	5,379	21.03%
Heard the Bells	T-8	Jax	4	5	-2	90	678	13.27%
		Phx	2	2	2	29	596	4.87%
		Ral	6	6	2	248	566	43.82%
	Total		12	13	2	367	1,840	19.95%
Puss Boots (EA)	T-3	Jax	4	4	9	85	366	23.22%
		Phx	5	5	16	107	488	21.93%
		Ral	6	6	20	81	757	10.70%
	Total		15	15	45	273	1,611	16.95%
Puss in Boot	T-28	Jax	5	29	0	4	3,051	0.13%
		Phx	5	25	-4	13	3,084	0.42%
		Ral	6	35	0	19	4,013	0.47%
	Total		16	89	-4	36	10,148	0.35%
Violent Night	T-8	Jax	6	19	4	26	2,143	1.21%
		Phx	5	14	5	23	2,161	1.06%
		Ral	7	16	2	34	1,676	2.03%
	Total		18	49	11	83	5,980	1.39%

 

Glass Onion T-0 comps (Opening day vs previews)

 - NTTD - .503x (2.615m)

 - F9 - .37x (2.627m)

 - Ghostbusters + EA - .607x (2.73m)

 - Top Gun 2 + EA - .131x (2.53m)

All drama movies - 3.17m

All action movies - 2.86m

All PG-13 movies - 3.37m

All movies - 3.64m

 

This being opening day AND a Wednesday, who knows how this will perform.  I'll go with 3m for my opening day prediction - expecting really good walkups

Fabelmans T-0 comps (Opening day vs previews)

 - House of Gucci - .174x (226k)

 - Elvis - .068x (219k)

All drama movies - 221k

All PG-13 movies - 235k

All movies - 254k

 

Should be around 250k today

 

Puss in Boots EA T-3 comps

 - Sing 2 EA - .411x

 - Sonic 2 EA - 1.11x (1.4m)

 

Violent Night T-8 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 2.862x (1.43m)

 - Bullet Train - .342x (1.14m)

 - Northman - .634x (855k)

 

I Heard the Bells T-8 comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - .735x (1.32m)

 

Avatar 2 T-22 comps

 - Eternals - 1.345x (12.78m)

 - TG2 - 1.145x (22.1m)

 - JW3 - .586x (10.54m)

 

Puss in Boots T-28 comps

 - Nope - .207x (1.32m)

 - JW3 + EA - missed

Edited November 23, 2022 by katnisscinnaplex
Added predictions

[M37]

23 hours ago, M37 said:

Was curious about possible "3D resistance", so did a spot check of the Tampa/St Pete market, broken down by format:

 

 

Clear preference for PLF (over 75% of day 1 sales), not surprising given the nature of the film and the limited supply of seats creating more of an early buying rush. But beyond that - with the caveats of one day, one market, and differing options at each location - the standard presentations do appear to pulling in more sales than the respective alternatives, +14% per show for PLF and +10% for 3D. To put a cherry on top of the demand sundae: the 5 standard PLF shows (one of which is at 1230am) sold more tickets than all 55 3D shows combined in the first day.

 

Again, its early, but going to be interesting to see how these ratios may change as time goes on, and as the the PLF shows start to fill up. Also of note: set this up around 5pm, and that first run through captured about 75-80% of sales through 8AM today, which means not much of trailer bump, and that will likely manifest more with today's sales.

 

For those interested, total sales for ~20 hours was 1,276 - a healthy number for this market, but have no direct comps, and honestly not sure how often I'll be able to pull a full set (as I'm doing it manually)

Day 2 update:

 

 

A bit of weaker sales day than I had expected (though a later sample taken for Day 1 than other trackers). Some general thoughts:

• Good day for non-PLF 3D on relative basis, selling as many tickets as PLF 3D (albeit with 3x the showings) and more than double the standard shows. Have to wait to see if its a one day blip, or start of trend
• Sales so far are pretty concentrated in the ~6P-8P time frame, even for non-PLF. Have a feeling that the long running time is going to discourage late evening (>9PM) Thursday sales, pushing more people into Friday/the weekend and boosting the IM. (TGM similar had weak late hour sales due to older audience, and Batman also had a long running time/somewhat softer late sales). As much as we generally dislike the preview creep time, wondering if 2PM might have made more sense for this title than 3PM
• Mentioned this before, but Thanksgiving break likely to mess with typical ticket-buying patterns vs comps, and don't think we'll have a good sense of trajectory until maybe around T-14, if not T-11 (and surely the discussion until then will reflect that uncertainty and not make sweeping assertions about weaker sales ...)

 

[katnisscinnaplex]

50 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Avatar 2	T-22	Jax	5	69	81	465	10,350	4.49%
		Phx	6	70	36	328	10,839	3.03%
		Ral	8	64	97	399	8,035	4.97%
	Total		19	203	214	1,192	29,224	4.08%
Fabelmans	T-0	Jax	3	15	9	32	1,037	3.09%
		Phx	1	8	10	18	320	5.63%
		Ral	3	12	13	29	1,522	1.91%
	Total		7	35	32	79	2,879	2.74%
Glass Onion	T-0	Jax	4	23	65	311	2,177	14.29%
		Phx	3	27	107	361	1,974	18.29%
		Ral	2	17	98	459	1,228	37.38%
	Total		9	67	270	1,131	5,379	21.03%
Heard the Bells	T-8	Jax	4	5	-2	90	678	13.27%
		Phx	2	2	2	29	596	4.87%
		Ral	6	6	2	248	566	43.82%
	Total		12	13	2	367	1,840	19.95%
Puss Boots (EA)	T-3	Jax	4	4	9	85	366	23.22%
		Phx	5	5	16	107	488	21.93%
		Ral	6	6	20	81	757	10.70%
	Total		15	15	45	273	1,611	16.95%
Puss in Boot	T-28	Jax	5	29	0	4	3,051	0.13%
		Phx	5	25	-4	13	3,084	0.42%
		Ral	6	35	0	19	4,013	0.47%
	Total		16	89	-4	36	10,148	0.35%
Violent Night	T-8	Jax	6	19	4	26	2,143	1.21%
		Phx	5	14	5	23	2,161	1.06%
		Ral	7	16	2	34	1,676	2.03%
	Total		18	49	11	83	5,980	1.39%

 

Glass Onion T-0 comps (Opening day vs previews)

 - NTTD - .503x (2.615m)

 - F9 - .37x (2.627m)

 - Ghostbusters + EA - .607x (2.73m)

 - Top Gun 2 + EA - .131x (2.53m)

All drama movies - 3.17m

All action movies - 2.86m

All PG-13 movies - 3.37m

All movies - 3.64m

 

This being opening day AND a Wednesday, who knows how this will perform.  I'll go with 3m for my opening day prediction - expecting really good walkups

Fabelmans T-0 comps (Opening day vs previews)

 - House of Gucci - .174x (226k)

 - Elvis - .068x (219k)

All drama movies - 221k

All PG-13 movies - 235k

All movies - 254k

 

Should be around 250k today

 

Puss in Boots EA T-3 comps

 - Sing 2 EA - .411x

 - Sonic 2 EA - 1.11x (1.4m)

 

Violent Night T-8 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 2.862x (1.43m)

 - Bullet Train - .342x (1.14m)

 - Northman - .634x (855k)

 

I Heard the Bells T-8 comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - .735x (1.32m)

 

Avatar 2 T-22 comps

 - Eternals - 1.345x (12.78m)

 - TG2 - 1.145x (22.1m)

 - JW3 - .586x (10.54m)

 

Puss in Boots T-28 comps

 - Nope - .207x (1.32m)

 - JW3 + EA - missed

Updated with predictions (somehow skipped them earlier without realizing).  Going with 3m and 250k for ODs

[filmlover]

The Fabelmans isn't selling too hot near me either aside from the multiplex I will be seeing it at over the weekend (the same one I saw She Said in a semi-packed theater, presumably one of the few theaters in the country it did do well at). If it does below $2M this weekend I suppose now will be the right time for folks to press the "Oscar movies are bombing" panic button.

[M37]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

While, short of the sort of skullduggery that @ringedmortality mentioned, local theaters can't add more PLF screens at their whim (though they CAN add late night screenings at a couple of locations), there is PLENTY of room for more screens to be added at non-PLF screens on Thursday.

 

I'm away from my main tracking computer at the moment, so I can't pull up screen counts at the moment, but there is easily room for another 150 to 200+ showtimes to be added locally, even with the approx 4 hour blocks needing to be set aside for this film (3+ hour run time + previews + theater cleanup + seating for next showing).  Maybe not all of them are 3D capable.  Honestly, I don't know what exactly goes into whether or not any given auditorium is capable of having 3D films.   But I still think there is plenty of room for more standard 3D screenings should the demand arise (which, as I've noted more than once - it hasn't.  Yet.)

I don't think we're maxed out at 3D shows with the initial sales offering ... but there probably isn't all that much room left to grow either.

 

3D presentation requires the ability to be able to display two distinct images (one for each eye), and therefore a specialized projector, either with a dual lens system on the older Xenon bulb projectors, or a higher frame rate with the newer laser projectors. [Digital IMAX is a two projector system, so they're all 3D capable by default].  The 3D show allocation for Avatar is mostly relying on the tech still left over from the boon a decade ago (some of which has been since removed), as theaters - still feeling effects of COVID revenue loss - aren't investing heavily in new systems for what is now, a single major 3D release

 

Essentially, Disney (Cameron) are betting on a high WOM/long leg push, where 3D/PLF limited supply creates unmet demand that is just rolled forward over time, rather than "settling" for standard shows. And while we saw what the last Avatar - and more recently TGM - did, audiences have shown post-pandemic to be more discerning, and one of the reasons I'm lower on projections is being skeptical that the "have to see in [X] format" boost is going to be at the level they (and many here) seem to be banking on

[Borobudur]

17 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The Fabelmans isn't selling too hot near me either aside from the multiplex I will be seeing it at over the weekend (the same one I saw She Said in a semi-packed theater, presumably one of the few theaters in the country it did do well at). If it does below $2M this weekend I suppose now will be the right time for folks to press the "Oscar movies are bombing" panic button.

Fabelmans below WSS? 

[CJohn]

4 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Fabelmans below WSS? 

Easily. Fabelmans will do like 20M total.

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Fabelmans below WSS? 

Waiting to see what its expansion numbers over the next few weeks look like but the fact it's going to be on PVOD by the time Avatar comes out makes me think a total below WSS is more likely than not.

[Tinalera]

Avatar 2 No Comps

Toronto Ontario

Thurs Dec 15 (taken Nov 23)

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	10	53	1075	12585	13660	0.0786