The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Eric Prime]

On 11/27/2022 at 11:12 PM, Eric Clade said:

[charlie Jatinder]

21 minutes ago, Eric Clade said:

Still not sure why I was requested to separate out the Early Access shows,

Because

21 minutes ago, Eric Clade said:

Comp w/ Early Access

1.971x of Sonic 2 T-23 (12.32M)

10.234x of Minions 2 T-23 (110.01M)

 

21 minutes ago, Eric Clade said:

Comp w/out Early Access

0.057x of Sonic 2 T-23 (359K)

0.298x of Minions 2 T-23 (3.2M)

 

[JustLurking]

Puss was the savior of christmas all along, not Avatar.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	142	18926	21338	2412	11.30%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

142

 

T-18 Comp                   [GRAIN OF SALT DUE TO HAVING NOTHING BETTER EDITION]

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	68.56		126	3518		0/248	28780/32298	10.89%		21117	11.42%		14.81m
TGM	76.23		307	3164		0/257	33053/36217	8.74%		11474	21.02%		14.68m
JWD	111.36		99	2166		0/184	22643/24809	8.73%		10966	22.00%		20.04m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        525/7309  [7.18% sold]
Matinee:     333/2671  [12.47% | 13.81% of all tickets sold]
3D:         1652/15634  [10.57% | 68.49% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:    1328/7439  [17.85% | 58.50% of all tickets sold]

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	142	18830	21338	2508	11.75%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

96

 

T-18 Comp                   [GRAIN OF SALT DUE TO HAVING NOTHING BETTER EDITION]

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	68.26		156	3674		0/248	28624/32298	11.38%		21117	11.88%		14.74m
TGM	74.05		223	3387		0/261	33007/36394	9.31%		11474	21.86%		14.26m
JWD	113.28		48	2214		0/188	22929/25143	8.81%		10966	22.87%		20.39m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:         562/7309  [7.69% sold]
Matinee:     349/2671  [13.07% | 13.92% of all tickets sold]
3D:          1702/15634  [10.89% | 67.86% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:    1369/7439  [18.40% | 58.25% of all tickets sold]

[TwoMisfits]

Ways you know it's gonna be an ugly box office few weeks and theaters are just hoping "something" sticks and brings in folks.

 

I just looked at my 12 for this weekend - it's booked EIGHTEEN films on 12 screens, and that's with giving Violent Night 2 screens.  So many movies have kept 1-2 shows, so many special events or holiday films or returns (hi TGM) or foreign films all getting a spot.  

 

I don't know if this is gonna be the coming holiday set this year, too...but it is very interesting...

 

For the record, here are the 18...

Violent Night (2)

Wakanda Forever (2)

Strange World (1 - dropped from 2.5 last week)

Devotion (1)

Fabelmans (1)

The Menu (1)

An Action Hero (Foreign - 1)

The Chosen - not sure how this is still here b/c it was originally a 4 day Fathom open - but that's the state of cinema (under 1 as are the rest, most with single showings or 2 showings)

Black Adam

Bones and All

I Heard the Bells (somehow, this is only a single showing, and it's pretty sold out for the weekend - Fathom, why did you not expand like you did The Chosen)

Spirited

Twilight - New Moon - 2022 Series

Top Gun Maverick

Elf

Hit 2 (foreign film)

Love Today (foreign film)

The Quintessential Quintuplets Movie (foreign film - also don't understand the single anime showing, either)

[TwoMisfits]

I also confirmed my Cinemark is charging an extra $1 for Avatar 2 for Fri-Sun viewing through December.  $16.75 for a 2d showing is steep, but that's the way of the ticket pricing this year...

Edited November 29, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New*	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Avatar 2	T-17	Jax	5	69	96	710	10,350	6.86%
		Phx	6	70	60	488	10,839	4.50%
		Ral	8	64	88	631	8,035	7.85%
	Total		19	203	244	1,829	29,224	6.26%
Heard the Bells	T-3	Jax	4	5	3	100	678	14.75%
		Phx	2	2	2	34	596	5.70%
		Ral	6	6	9	281	566	49.65%
	Total		12	13	14	415	1,840	22.55%
Puss in Boots	T-23	Jax	5	29	2	8	3,051	0.26%
		Phx	5	25	2	15	3,084	0.49%
		Ral	6	35	1	20	4,013	0.50%
	Total		16	89	5	43	10,148	0.42%
Violent Night	T-3	Jax	6	19	5	31	2,143	1.45%
		Phx	5	14	5	38	2,161	1.76%
		Ral	7	16	1	45	1,676	2.68%
	Total		18	49	11	114	5,980	1.91%

*New sales since Saturday morning

 

Violent Night T-3 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 1.78x (891k)

 - Bullet Train - .263x (880k)

 - Northman - .396x (534k)

 - Snake Eyes - .69x (967k)

 - Massive Talent - 1.06x (739k)

 

I Heard the Bells T-3 comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - .467x (840k)

 - Respect - 6.48x (4.21m)

 

Avatar 2 T-17 comps

 - Eternals - 1.545x (14.675m)

 - TG2 - .848x (16.357m)

 - JW3 - .772x (13.89m)

 

Puss in Boots T-23 comps

 - Nope - .197x (1.26m)

 - JW3 + EA - .021x (386k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Avatar 2	T-16	Jax	5	69	54	764	10,350	7.38%
		Phx	6	70	19	507	10,839	4.68%
		Ral	8	64	20	651	8,035	8.10%
	Total		19	203	93	1,922	29,224	6.58%
Heard the Bells	T-2	Jax	4	5	8	108	678	15.93%
		Phx	2	2	14	48	596	8.05%
		Ral	6	6	10	291	566	51.41%
	Total		12	13	32	447	1,840	24.29%
Puss in Boots	T-22	Jax	5	29	0	8	3,051	0.26%
		Phx	5	25	0	15	3,084	0.49%
		Ral	6	35	0	20	4,013	0.50%
	Total		16	89	0	43	10,148	0.42%
Violent Night	T-2	Jax	6	20	12	43	2,341	1.84%
		Phx	6	17	19	57	2,884	1.98%
		Ral	7	18	8	53	2,198	2.41%
	Total		19	55	39	153	7,423	2.06%

 

Violent Night T-2 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 1.7x (850k)

 - Bullet Train - .291x (976k)

 - Northman - .433x (5854k)

 - Snake Eyes - .668x (935k)

 - Massive Talent - 1.117x (782k)

 

I Heard the Bells T-2 comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - .441x (793k)

 - Respect - 6.3x (4.09m)

 

Avatar 2 T-16 comps

 - Eternals - 1.545x (14.675m)

 - TG2 - .848x (16.357m)

 - JW3 - .772x (13.89m)

 - F9 - 3.813x (27.08m)

 - Ghostbusters - 8.25x (34.23m)

 - NTTD - 5.896x (30.66m)

 

Puss in Boots T-22 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .274x (1.36m)

 - Minions 2 - .439x (4.72m)

[M37]

As sales enter the usual lull after the first full week of sales, the big question ahead: what will Avatwo's sales trajectory look like approaching release? There is no great comp, but rather a conglomeration of plausible ones that will (hopefully) average out enough to light the path ahead [Chart coming later this week 😉]

Given the high interest from those not normally following tracking (CC: @IronJimbo), wanted to visually show the wide the range of outcomes moving forward, so graphed out the cumulative growth rate from T-14 to final for a few titles & markets

 

 

Personally, based on a few factors in the sales pattern so far, my expectations are more in the Batman/TGM* range (~180-230% increase from T-14), not the walk-up monster level of JWD (+270-320%), with BPWF (or Thor) setting a lower bound if the audience turns out to be more fan/early purchase heavy than expected.

 

*Note: TGM comps by market are also going to be pretty variable, with Sacto & Denver shooting out of the gate while Philly was slow to start and caught up late, and Alpha mostly the middle

[M37]

32 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I just looked at my 12 for this weekend - it's booked EIGHTEEN films on 12 screens, and that's with giving Violent Night 2 screens.  So many movies have kept 1-2 shows, so many special events or holiday films or returns (hi TGM) or foreign films all getting a spot. 

It’s what I call a Spaghetti Weekend: throw everything against the wall and see what sticks 

 

(aka a “Please come watch anything, we’re begging you” schedule, in the absence of any new releases)

[keysersoze123]

Avatar Ways of Water MTC2 Previews(T-17) - 42140/481142 675473.22 3037 shows

 

FYI presales for both friday/saturday are ahead of previews and so its going to have very good multi for the weekend. 

Edited November 29, 2022 by keysersoze123

[CJohn]

My hope is that Violent Night somehow does 10M this weekend.

[Krissykins]

6 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

I also confirmed my Cinemark is charging an extra $1 for Avatar 2 for Fri-Sun viewing through December.  $16.75 for a 2d showing is steep, but that's the way of the ticket pricing this year...

My local is charging an extra £1 just for Avatar too.
 

It’s £17.99 for Avatar in IMAX 3D ($21.39). 

[Tinalera]

Avatar 2

Toronto Ontario, Canada

Thurs Dec 15 (taken Nov 29)

 

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent	increase
Thurs	10	54	1548	12193	13741	0.1126	+ 180

[Porthos]

On 11/29/2022 at 1:07 AM, Porthos said:

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-17 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	142	18830	21338	2508	11.75%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

96

 

T-17 Comp                   [GRAIN OF SALT DUE TO HAVING NOTHING BETTER EDITION]

	%		Sold T-17	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Bats	68.26		156	3674		0/248	28624/32298	11.38%		21117	11.88%		14.74m
TGM	74.05		223	3387		0/261	33007/36394	9.31%		11474	21.86%		14.26m
JWD	113.28		48	2214		0/188	22929/25143	8.81%		10966	22.87%		20.39m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:         562/7309  [7.69% sold]
Matinee:     349/2671  [13.07% | 13.92% of all tickets sold]
3D:          1702/15634  [10.89% | 67.86% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:    1369/7439  [18.40% | 58.25% of all tickets sold]

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-16 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	142	18732	21338	2606	12.21%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

98

 

T-16 Comp                   [GRAIN OF SALT DUE TO HAVING NOTHING BETTER EDITION]

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune	530.75		97	491		0/74	11158/11649	4.21%		2915	89.40%		27.07m
Bats	68.36		138	3812		0/280	30966/34778	10.96%		21117	12.34%		14.77m
TGM	72.25		220	3607		0/259	32324/35931	10.04%		11474	22.71%		13.92m
JWD	112.04		112	2326		0/190	22988/25314	9.19%		10966	23.76%		20.17m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        587/7309  [8.03% sold]
Matinee     353/2671  [13.22% | 13.55% of all tickets sold]
3D:         1766/15634  [11.30% | 67.77% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:    1410/7439  [18.95% | 57.87% of all tickets sold]

[filmlover]

Good reviews for Violent Night so far! Looking like not so good reviews for Spoiler Alert though.

[ZackM]

On 11/29/2022 at 12:07 AM, ZackM said:

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-17 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	6	14	2	0	1
Seats Added	705	2,865	400	0	299
Seats Sold	2,378	3,195	3,124	2,733	4,269
11/28/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	435	4,424	66,193	739,908	8.95%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	8	31	77
ATP
$19.24

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Forever Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Black Panther:Wakanda Forever		Jurassic World: Dominion
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10
T-11
T-12
T-13
T-14
T-15
T-16
T-17	$10.3	$11.5	$10.7	$12.0	$20.6	$21.9
T-18	$10.2	$11.4	$10.5	$11.8	$20.5	$21.8

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	9	6	14	2	0
Seats Added	2,157	705	2,865	400	0
Seats Sold	2,294	2,378	3,195	3,124	2,733
11/29/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	436	4,433	68,487	742,065	9.23%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	10	32	89
ATP
$19.20

 

 

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Forever Comps
	Thor: Love & Thunder		Black Panther:Wakanda Forever		Jurassic World: Dominion
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3
T-4
T-5
T-6
T-7
T-8
T-9
T-10
T-11
T-12
T-13
T-14
T-15
T-16	$10.4	$11.6	$10.9	$12.2	$20.7	$22.0
T-17	$10.3	$11.5	$10.7	$12.0	$20.6	$21.9
T-18	$10.2	$11.4	$10.5	$11.8	$20.5	$21.8

[Eric Prime]

On 11/29/2022 at 12:36 AM, Eric Claus said:

Violent Night Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	44	154	6709	2.65%

 

Comp

1.027x of Snake Eyes T-3 (1.44M)

0.208x of The Suicide Squad T-3 (852K)

0.993x of Free Guy T-3 (2.18M)

0.275x of Uncharted T-3 (1.02M)

1.711x of Ambulance T-3 (1.2M)

0.475x of The Northman T-3 (642K)

0.137x of Bullet Train T-3 (632K)

Violent Night Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	44	202	6709	3.01%

 

Comp

0.995x of Snake Eyes T-2 (1.39M)

0.225x of The Suicide Squad T-2 (922K)

0.906x of Free Guy T-2 (1.99M)

0.292x of Uncharted T-2 (1.08M)

1.888x of Ambulance T-2 (1.32M)

0.546x of The Northman T-2 (737K)

0.158x of Bullet Train T-2 (726K)

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 11/29/2022 at 8:42 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Avatar 2	T-16	Jax	5	69	54	764	10,350	7.38%
		Phx	6	70	19	507	10,839	4.68%
		Ral	8	64	20	651	8,035	8.10%
	Total		19	203	93	1,922	29,224	6.58%
Heard the Bells	T-2	Jax	4	5	8	108	678	15.93%
		Phx	2	2	14	48	596	8.05%
		Ral	6	6	10	291	566	51.41%
	Total		12	13	32	447	1,840	24.29%
Puss in Boots	T-22	Jax	5	29	0	8	3,051	0.26%
		Phx	5	25	0	15	3,084	0.49%
		Ral	6	35	0	20	4,013	0.50%
	Total		16	89	0	43	10,148	0.42%
Violent Night	T-2	Jax	6	20	12	43	2,341	1.84%
		Phx	6	17	19	57	2,884	1.98%
		Ral	7	18	8	53	2,198	2.41%
	Total		19	55	39	153	7,423	2.06%

 

Violent Night T-2 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 1.7x (850k)

 - Bullet Train - .291x (976k)

 - Northman - .433x (5854k)

 - Snake Eyes - .668x (935k)

 - Massive Talent - 1.117x (782k)

 

I Heard the Bells T-2 comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - .441x (793k)

 - Respect - 6.3x (4.09m)

 

Avatar 2 T-16 comps

 - Eternals - 1.545x (14.675m)

 - TG2 - .848x (16.357m)

 - JW3 - .772x (13.89m)

 - F9 - 3.813x (27.08m)

 - Ghostbusters - 8.25x (34.23m)

 - NTTD - 5.896x (30.66m)

 

Puss in Boots T-22 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .274x (1.36m)

 - Minions 2 - .439x (4.72m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Avatar 2	T-15	Jax	5	69	31	795	10,350	7.68%
		Phx	6	70	32	539	10,839	4.97%
		Ral	8	64	26	677	8,035	8.43%
ATP: 16.84	Total		19	203	89	2,011	29,224	6.88%
Heard the Bells	T-1	Jax	4	5	-1	107	678	15.78%
		Phx	2	2	-2	46	596	7.72%
		Ral	6	7	5	296	667	44.38%
	Total		12	14	2	449	1,941	23.13%
Puss in Boots	T-21	Jax	5	29	0	8	3,051	0.26%
		Phx	5	25	1	16	3,084	0.52%
		Ral	6	35	0	20	4,013	0.50%
	Total		16	89	1	44	10,148	0.43%
Violent Night	T-1	Jax	6	28	13	56	3,375	1.66%
		Phx	7	23	8	65	3,405	1.91%
		Ral	8	23	16	69	2,869	2.41%
	Total		21	74	37	190	9,649	1.97%

 

Violent Night T-1 comps

 - Easter Sunday - 1.79x (896k)

 - Bullet Train - .256x (859k)

 - Northman - .469x (633k)

 - Snake Eyes - .609x (853k)

 - Massive Talent - .995x (696k)

 

I Heard the Bells T-1 comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - .385x (692k)

 - Respect - 4.28x (2.78m)

 

Avatar 2 T-15 comps

 - Eternals - missed

 - TG2 - .829x (16m)

 - JW3 - .807x (14.53m)

 - F9 - 3.717x (26.39m)

 - Ghostbusters - 6.911x (28.68m)

 - NTTD - 5.681x (29.54m)

 

Puss in Boots T-21 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .227x (1.13m)

 - Minions 2 - .364x (3.91m)

[Eric Prime]

On 11/29/2022 at 12:56 AM, Eric Claus said:

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-17 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	152	1612	26516	6.08%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 67

 

Comp

2.567x of F9 T-17 (18.22M)

3.672x of Venom 2 T-17 (42.59M)

3.386x of No Time to Die T-17 (21.33M)

3.655x of Dune T-17 (18.64M)

1.402x of Top Gun 2 T-17 (27M)

1.062x of Jurassic World 3 T-17 (19.11M)

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-16 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	152	1690	26516	6.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 78

 

Comp

2.545x of F9 T-16 (18.07M)

3.470x of Venom 2 T-15 (40.25M)

3.320x of No Time to Die T-16 (20.92M)

3.159x of Dune T-16 (16.11M)

6.377x of Fantastic Beasts 3 T-16 (38.26M)

1.425x of Top Gun 2 T-16 (27.44M)

1.077x of Jurassic World 3 T-16 (19.39M)

[IronJimbo]

looking pretty good so far, I would say that $175-$200m (by deadline?) seems on track