The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[interiorgatordecorator]

8 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

4-Day predictions for this weekend's top 7 films at the domestic box office.

 

Rank	Film (Distributor)	Weekend Gross	Total Gross	% Change	Week #
1	Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney / 20th Century)	$95.0 M	$294.5 M	-29%	2
2	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Universal / DreamWorks Animation)	$26.0 M	$36.5 M	NEW	1
3	Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Sony / TriStar)	$15.3 M	$15.3 M	NEW	1
4	Babylon (Paramount)	$11.2 M	$11.2 M	NEW	1
5	Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney)	$5.3 M	$428.1 M	-1%	7
6	Violent Night (Universal)	$4.5 M	$43.1 M	-11%	4
7	The Whale (A24)	$3.1 M	$4.9 M	+1,725%	3

 

pretty dishonest way of framing the drops

[interiorgatordecorator]

not an americano, but Puss In Boots has an obscene amount of showtimes where im from, hope it doesnt backfire on them

[charlie Jatinder]

Orange Panther Harkins

 

WED - 6453/59466 (329 showings) $62,333

 

Couple of shows pending but will be 6.5K max. Looks like eh $3.25-3.5M OD.

[Alex SciChannel]

18 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Orange Panther Harkins

 

WED - 6453/59466 (329 showings) $62,333

 

Couple of shows pending but will be 6.5K max. Looks like eh $3.25-3.5M OD.

Makes me sad

[Nero]

54 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

4-Day predictions for this weekend's top 7 films at the domestic box office.

 

Rank	Film (Distributor)	Weekend Gross	Total Gross	% Change	Week #
1	Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney / 20th Century)	$95.0 M	$294.5 M	-29%	2
2	Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Universal / DreamWorks Animation)	$26.0 M	$36.5 M	NEW	1
3	Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody (Sony / TriStar)	$15.3 M	$15.3 M	NEW	1
4	Babylon (Paramount)	$11.2 M	$11.2 M	NEW	1
5	Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney)	$5.3 M	$428.1 M	-1%	7
6	Violent Night (Universal)	$4.5 M	$43.1 M	-11%	4
7	The Whale (A24)	$3.1 M	$4.9 M	+1,725%	3

Whose prediction? BoP?

[Issac Newton]

7 minutes ago, Nero said:

Whose prediction? BoP?

Box Office Report

http://www.boxofficereport.com/predictions/predictions20221222.html

 

[Krissykins]

On 12/20/2022 at 5:18 PM, Krissykins said:

Urgh. I’m hoping 65 changes date. 

 

Good! Scream VI will hopefully get the PLF’s to itself now after all. 

Edited December 22, 2022 by Krissykins

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Babylon	T-1	Jax	5	20	9	36	1,823	1.97%
		Phx	7	25	17	96	2,442	3.93%
		Ral	8	22	13	81	1,995	4.06%
	Total		20	67	39	213	6,260	3.40%
I Wanna Dance	T-1	Jax	5	25	8	85	2,167	3.92%
		Phx	7	28	21	100	2,960	3.38%
		Ral	9	31	19	126	3,261	3.86%
	Total		20	84	48	311	8,388	3.71%
M3GAN	T-15	Jax	5	20	0	7	1,758	0.40%
		Phx	5	13	0	9	2,039	0.44%
		Ral	7	14	0	13	1,817	0.72%
	Total		17	47	0	29	5,614	0.52%

 

I Wanna Dance T-1 comps

 - Elvis - .362x (1.157m)

 - Easter Sunday - 2.934x (1.47m)

 - Respect - 2.962x (1.925m)

 - House of Gucci - .857x (1.11m)

 - King Richard - .934x (1.81m)

 

Babylon T-1 comps

 - Elvis - .248x (792k)

 - Bullet Train - .287x (963k)

 - Amsterdam - 1.5x (825k)

 - Death on the Nile - .855x (941k)

 - Lost City - .441x (1.1m)

 

M3GAN T-15 comps

 - Nope - .096x (613k)

 - Black Phone - .414x (1.08m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Babylon	T-0	Jax	5	20	13	49	1,823	2.69%
		Phx	7	25	22	118	2,442	4.83%
		Ral	8	22	37	118	1,995	5.91%
	Total		20	67	72	285	6,260	4.55%
I Wanna Dance	T-0	Jax	5	25	41	126	2,167	5.81%
		Phx	7	28	11	111	2,960	3.75%
		Ral	9	31	35	161	3,261	4.94%
	Total		20	84	87	398	8,388	4.74%
M3GAN	T-14	Jax	5	20	0	7	1,758	0.40%
		Phx	5	13	2	11	2,039	0.54%
		Ral	7	14	-1	12	1,817	0.66%
	Total		17	47	1	30	5,614	0.53%

 

I Wanna Dance T-0 comps

 - Elvis - .345x (1.1m)

 - Easter Sunday - 3.184x (1.59m)

 - Respect - 2.65x (1.72m)

 - House of Gucci - .877x (1.14m)

 - King Richard - .637x (1.23m)

 

Looking like ~1.2m at this point.   One more update to go though.

 

Babylon T-0 comps

 - Elvis - .247x (791k)

 - Bullet Train - .273x (915k)

 - Amsterdam - 1.647x (906k)

 - Death on the Nile - .843x (906k)

 - Lost City - .415x (1.04m)

 

Should be around 900k if these stand.

 

M3GAN T-14 comps

 - Nope - .093x (594k)

 - Black Phone - .411x (1.07m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Puss in Boots	N	42	141	268	4,850	5.53%	$12.29	$3,293.68
		Y	65	457	756	7,356	10.28%	$9.11	$6,884.19
	Total		107	598	1,024	12,206	8.39%	$9.94	$10,177.87
T-1	Babylon	N	10	8	34	679	5.01%	$12.44	$423.00
		Y	10	3	20	679	2.95%	$9.65	$192.91
	Total		20	11	54	1,358	3.98%	$11.41	$615.91
T-1	I Wanna Dance	N	20	15	63	1,714	3.68%	$12.09	$761.53
		Y	10	19	51	857	5.95%	$9.36	$477.30
	Total		30	34	114	2,571	4.43%	$10.87	$1,238.83

 

Puss in Boots T-0 comps

 - Minions 2 - .324x (3.48m)

 - Sonic 2 - .507x (2.52m)

 - Lightyear - .724x (3.55m)

 - Super Pets - 1.969x (4.33m)

 

Solid day in Santikos as well, pointing toward a 3.5m OD.  Interesting to note that Santikos isn't giving Puss any 3D screens today.

 

Babylon T-1 comps

 - Bullet Train - .224x (751k)

 - Elvis - missed

 - Crawdads - .144x (289k)

 - Easter Sunday - .982x (491k)

 - Massive Talent - 1.23x (1.02m)

 - Paradise - .31x (341k)

 

I Wanna Dance T-1 comps

 - Elvis - missed

 - Downton - .579x (608k)

 - Easter Sunday - 2.07x (1.04m)

 - Paradise - .655x (721k)

 

Babylon and I Wanna Dance are both stuck on one screen at all 10 theaters for previews.  

Santikos Tracking

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Babylon	N	10	9	43	679	6.33%	$12.54	$539.35
		Y	10	11	31	679	4.57%	$9.54	$295.73
	Total		20	20	74	1,358	5.45%	$11.28	$835.08
T-0	I Wanna Dance	N	20	9	72	1,714	4.20%	$12.02	$865.48
		Y	10	21	72	857	8.40%	$9.28	$667.80
	Total		30	30	144	2,571	5.60%	$10.65	$1,533.28
T-0	Puss in Boots (Thu)	N	43	108	108	5,023	2.15%	$11.87	$1,282.16
		Y	66	357	357	7,633	4.68%	$9.34	$3,335.70
	Total		109	465	465	12,656	3.67%	$9.93	$4,617.86

 

Babylon T-0 comps

 - Bullet Train - .161x (538k)

 - Elvis - .053x (171k)

 - Crawdads - .144x (288k)

 - Easter Sunday - 1.121x (561k)

 - Massive Talent - .892x (744k)

 - Paradise - .33x (363k)

 

I'll go with ~650k

 

I Wanna Dance T-0 comps

 - Elvis - .104x (332k)

 - Downton - .598x (627k)

 - Easter Sunday - 2.182x (1.09m)

 - Paradise - .643x (707k)

 - Massive Talent - 1.735x (1.45m)

 

Not selling very well here.  Based on these I would normally say around 800k, but hopefully it's just underperforming in San Antonio.

 

Puss in Boots comps (comping to Fridays)

 - Paws of Fury - 1.24x (2.4m)

 - Super Pets - .316x (2.25m)

 - Minions 2 - .051x (1.93m)

[filmlover]

Showtimes for Knock at the Cabin are starting to appear (but aren't on sale yet). Seems like a sign of confidence that they're pushing it this early.

[poweranimals]

10 hours ago, Krissykins said:

 

Good! Scream VI will hopefully get the PLF’s to itself now after all. 

Why would they put it out against Shazam 2? I know it's not exactly the same target audience but both are sci-fi so there's a lot of overlap.

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, poweranimals said:

Why would they put it out against Shazam 2? I know it's not exactly the same target audience but both are sci-fi so there's a lot of overlap.

Perhaps 65 is aiming for an R rating.

[el sid]

I Wanna Dance with Somebody, counted today at 10am EST for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 61 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 8 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 10 (6 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 6 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 6 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 64 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 53 (4 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 208.

Comp: The Woman King (1.7M from previews) had also on Thursday for Thursday 389 sold tickets.
Would be 900k from previews for I Wanna Dance but it's only one comp.

I Wanna Dance with Somebody, counted today at 10am EST for Friday, Dec 23:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 97 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 15 (13 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 10 (7 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 5 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 3 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 47 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 43 (8 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 220.

 

Comps (all counted on Thursday for Friday): King Richard (5.4M) had 283 sold tickets,

The Woman King (19.1M) had 520 sold tickets

and Respect (8.8M) had 247 sold tickets.

House of Gucci (14.4M OW) had on Tuesday for Wednesday 548 sold tickets.
 

So in my theaters it did not have the jumps I hoped for. And most comps point to a 3-day weekend unter 10M. But of course this is no normal weekend and it won't be frontloaded (it also has a good Thursday:Friday presales ratio). So I still think it will have double digits but not much more.

Edited December 22, 2022 by el sid

[katnisscinnaplex]

8 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Babylon	T-0	Jax	5	20	13	49	1,823	2.69%
		Phx	7	25	22	118	2,442	4.83%
		Ral	8	22	37	118	1,995	5.91%
	Total		20	67	72	285	6,260	4.55%
I Wanna Dance	T-0	Jax	5	25	41	126	2,167	5.81%
		Phx	7	28	11	111	2,960	3.75%
		Ral	9	31	35	161	3,261	4.94%
	Total		20	84	87	398	8,388	4.74%
M3GAN	T-14	Jax	5	20	0	7	1,758	0.40%
		Phx	5	13	2	11	2,039	0.54%
		Ral	7	14	-1	12	1,817	0.66%
	Total		17	47	1	30	5,614	0.53%

 

I Wanna Dance T-0 comps

 - Elvis - .345x (1.1m)

 - Easter Sunday - 3.184x (1.59m)

 - Respect - 2.65x (1.72m)

 - House of Gucci - .877x (1.14m)

 - King Richard - .637x (1.23m)

 

Looking like ~1.2m at this point.   One more update to go though.

 

Babylon T-0 comps

 - Elvis - .247x (791k)

 - Bullet Train - .273x (915k)

 - Amsterdam - 1.647x (906k)

 - Death on the Nile - .843x (906k)

 - Lost City - .415x (1.04m)

 

Should be around 900k if these stand.

 

M3GAN T-14 comps

 - Nope - .093x (594k)

 - Black Phone - .411x (1.07m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Babylon	1-Hr	Jax	5	20	4	53	1,823	2.91%
		Phx	7	25	15	133	2,442	5.45%
		Ral	8	22	53	171	1,995	8.57%
	Total		20	67	72	357	6,260	5.70%
I Wanna Dance	1-Hr	Jax	5	25	34	160	2,167	7.38%
		Phx	7	28	22	133	2,960	4.49%
		Ral	9	31	51	212	3,261	6.50%
	Total		20	84	107	505	8,388	6.02%

 

I Wanna Dance T-1 hr comps

 - Elvis - .316x (1.01m)

 - Easter Sunday - 3.117x (1.56m)

 - Respect - 2.08x (1.35m)

 - House of Gucci - .754x (980k)

 - King Richard - missed

All drama movies - 919k

All PG-13 movies - 1.02m

All 2pm preview movies - 1.04m

All movies - 1.08m

 

Looks like a solid 1m for previews.

 

Babylon T-1 hr comps

 - Elvis - .224x (716k)

 - Bullet Train - .24x (804k)

 - Amsterdam - 1.313x (722k)

 - Death on the Nile - missed

 - Lost City - .356x (890k)

All drama movies - 650k

All R movies - 812k

All 3pm previews movies - 730k

All movies - 762k

 

I'll go with 750k for Babylon.

[Ms Lady Hawk]

5 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Babylon	1-Hr	Jax	5	20	4	53	1,823	2.91%
		Phx	7	25	15	133	2,442	5.45%
		Ral	8	22	53	171	1,995	8.57%
	Total		20	67	72	357	6,260	5.70%
I Wanna Dance	1-Hr	Jax	5	25	34	160	2,167	7.38%
		Phx	7	28	22	133	2,960	4.49%
		Ral	9	31	51	212	3,261	6.50%
	Total		20	84	107	505	8,388	6.02%

 

I Wanna Dance T-1 hr comps

 - Elvis - .316x (1.01m)

 - Easter Sunday - 3.117x (1.56m)

 - Respect - 2.08x (1.35m)

 - House of Gucci - .754x (980k)

 - King Richard - missed

All drama movies - 919k

All PG-13 movies - 1.02m

All 2pm preview movies - 1.04m

All movies - 1.08m

 

Looks like a solid 1m for previews.

 

Babylon T-1 hr comps

 - Elvis - .224x (716k)

 - Bullet Train - .24x (804k)

 - Amsterdam - 1.313x (722k)

 - Death on the Nile - missed

 - Lost City - .356x (890k)

All drama movies - 650k

All R movies - 812k

All 3pm previews movies - 730k

All movies - 762k

 

I'll go with 750k for Babylon.

Based on these numbers, if they come to fruition, how much can we expect for these two for the Friday to Sunday and then for the Friday to Monday? 

[el sid]

Babylon, counted today at 11am EST for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 55 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 33 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 9 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 4 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 19 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 114 (7 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 153 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 387.

Comps: BT had 1.508 sold tickets,

TLC had 745 sold tickets

Death on the Nile had 466 sold tickets

and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood had 2.573 sold tickets (On the one hand this film had L. DiCaprio, OTOH it was pretty frontloaded).
I think the comps make Babylon look worse than it is because the number itself isn't bad.

Babylon, counted today at 11am EST for Friday, Dec 23:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 48 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 26 (9 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 0 (6 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 3 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 14 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 84 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 95 (12 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 270. And as you can see it's way more popular on the coasts than in other regions.

Comps: BT (30M OW) had 1.250 sold tickets,

TLC (30.5M) had 695,

Death on the Nile (12.9M) had 487,

Amsterdam (6.4M) had 391 (but I think Babylon will have way better walk-ups)

and Once Upon (41.1M) had 1.831 sold tickets.
 

Very uneven from the comps. But the presales are better than those for I Wanna Dance.
IMO it could reach 10M or at least come close to that number.
 

Edited December 22, 2022 by el sid

[Eric Prime]

17 hours ago, Eric in Boots said:

Babylon Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	39	190	4621	4.11%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 28

 

Comp

3.115x of The Last Duel T-1 (1.09M)

0.615x of Last Night in Soho T-1 (430K)

0.519x of House of Gucci T-1 (675K)

2.500x of The 355 T-1 (875K)

0.725x of Death on the Nile T-1 (798K)

1.310x of Ambulance T-1 (917K)

0.459x of The Northman T-1 (620K)

0.691x of Unbearable Weight T-1 (577K)

0.168x of Bullet Train T-1 (772K)

0.132x of Don't Worry Darling T-1 (410K)

0.888x of Amsterdam T-1 (488K)

Babylon Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	39	263	4621	5.69%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 73

 

Comp

2.684x of The Last Duel (939K)

0.680x of Last Night in Soho (476K)

0.438x of House of Gucci (569K)

1.719x of The 355 (602K)

0.687x of Death on the Nile (755K)

0.865x of Ambulance (605K)

0.431x of The Northman (582K)

0.582x of Unbearable Weight (486K)

0.150x of Bullet Train (690K)

0.150x of Don't Worry Darling (464K)

1.096x of Amsterdam (603K)

[Eric Prime]

17 hours ago, Eric in Boots said:

I Wanna Dance with Somebody Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	64	289	8543	3.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 46

 

Comp

1.588x of Respect T-1 (1.03M)

0.481x of Candyman T-1 (914K)

0.166x of Nope T-1 (1.06M)

1.438x of Beast T-1 (1.33M)

0.470x of The Woman King T-1 (799K)

I Wanna Dance with Somebody Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	64	459	8543	5.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 170

 

Comp

0.956x of Respect (621K)

0.324x of Candyman (616K)

0.145x of Nope (930K)

1.103x of Beast (1.02M)

0.369x of The Woman King (628K)

[Ms Lady Hawk]

3 minutes ago, Eric in Boots said:

I Wanna Dance with Somebody Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	64	459	8543	5.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 170

 

Comp

0.956x of Respect (621K)

0.324x of Candyman (616K)

0.145x of Nope (930K)

1.103x of Beast (1.02M)

0.369x of The Woman King (628K)

That’s a pretty rough day for I Wanna Dance. It dropped against all comps. I was hoping it would be a break out hit. 

[Nikostar]

2 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

That’s a pretty rough day for I Wanna Dance. It dropped against all comps. I was hoping it would be a break out hit. 

With a storm coming I would expect all films to drop