The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Cooper Legion]

34 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

Less than 24 hours till the Mario floodgates open. Any last pre-sale predictions?

My prediction is that it won’t be much of a floodgate at all…

[Porthos]

54 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Lots of 👀 and Porthos dark magic striking again

 

For Numbers:

$325m DOM

 

$900m WW

 

I predict a distinct lack of Sacto Dark Magic.

 

(I don't track all day openers)

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, cooldude97 said:

Less than 24 hours till the Mario floodgates open. Any last pre-sale predictions?

$350M DOM

$900M-1.1B WW 

[Mulder]

Pre-emptively with Mario, while there might be a ton of pre-sales I think it's more realistic that the pre-sales will be pretty soft. I imagine kids and families will be the main driving force for Mario, not really the types who pre-buy tickets.

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Pre-emptively with Mario, while there might be a ton of pre-sales I think it's more realistic that the pre-sales will be pretty soft. I imagine kids and families will be the main driving force for Mario, not really the types who pre-buy tickets.

 

We do have two recent-ish comps in both Sonic 2 and Minions 2.

 

Minions 2 in particular started incredibly soft, at least in Sacto.  So something to keep in mind, even when adjusting for the differences between a Thur preview start and an all day Wed start.

 

[TheFlatLannister]

On 3/7/2023 at 9:39 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

AMC FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-10

 

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
17	165	3139	5.2%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
4	0

 

 

 

CINEMARK FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-10

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
11	18	1780	1.0%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
0	0

 

 

MISCELLANEOUS CHAINS IN THE GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-10

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
22	128	3815	3.3%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
71	1

 

A huge jump in presales today, mainly in the outer Orlando chains. Two showings in Kissimmee Florida went bonkers today. A couple of group sells and a new showing has helped numbers a lot. Too early to tell if strong social media reactions are responsible for the suburban/rural boost. Will wait for tomorrow's numbers to make a proper conclusion.   

AMC FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-9

 

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
17	168	3139	5.3%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
3	0

 

 

 

CINEMARK FRIDAY NIGHT SHOWINGS - GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-9

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
11	18	1780	1.0%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
0	0

 

 

MISCELLANEOUS CHAINS IN THE GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

SHAZAM!

 

T-9

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
22	167	3815	4.4%

 

SEATS SOLD TODAY	NEW SHOWINGS ADDED
39	0

[Porthos]

On 3/7/2023 at 11:47 PM, Porthos said:

 

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-16 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	88	12307	13330	1023	7.67%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

54

 

T-16 Comps

	%		Sold T-16	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	28.36		220	3607		0/259	32324/35931	10.04%		11474	8.92%		5.46m
JWD	43.98		112	2326		0/190	22988/25314	9.19%		4456	22.96%		7.92m
BA	129.82		59	788		0/146	21279/22067	3.57%		4494	22.76%		9.87m
A2	39.26		98	2606		0/142	18732/21338	12.21%		8986	11.38%		6.67m
Scream 6	193.38		39	529		0/68	7359/7888	6.71%		????	????		????

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Wick 4's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     204/3784  [5.39% sold]
Matinee:    32/1253  [2.55% | 3.13% of all tickets sold]

 

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-15 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	88	12243	13330	1087	8.15%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

64

 

T-15 Comps

	%		Sold T-15	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TGM	28.64		189	3796		0/259	32137/35933	10.56%		11474	9.47%		5.52m
JWD	44.82		99	2425		0/191	22947/25372	9.56%		4456	24.39%		8.07m
BA	127.43		65	853		0/146	21214/22067	3.87%		4494	24.19%		9.68m
A2	40.33		89	2695		0/142	18643/21338	12.63%		8986	12.10%		6.86m
Scream 6	175.32		91	620		0/68	7268/7888	7.86%		????	????		????

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Wick 4's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     231/3784  [6.10% sold]
Matinee:    41/1253  [3.27% | 3.77% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 3/7/2023 at 11:48 PM, Porthos said:

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	111	11647	13428	1781	13.26%

 

Total Showings Added Today	9
Total Seats Added Today	1190
Total Seats Sold Today	268

 

T-2 Comp

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Morbius	93.49		328	1905		0/181	22143/24048	7.92%		3477	51.22%		5.33m
Sonic 2	84.97		466	2096		0/119	13278/15374	13.63%		3951	45.08%		5.31m
Nope	114.98		333	1549		0/145	18685/20234	7.66%		3822	46.60%		7.36m
BA	69.33		397	2569		0/232	28250/30819	8.34%		4494	39.63%		5.27m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:        338/3110  [10.87% sold]
Matinee:       116/773  [15.01% | 6.51% of all tickets sold]
3D:            554/3342  [16.58% | 31.11% of all tickets sold]

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	116	11326	13605	2279	16.75%

 

Total Showings Added Today	5
Total Seats Added Today	177
Total Seats Sold Today	498

 

T-1 Comp

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Morbius	91.82		577	2482		0/184	21853/24335	10.20%		3477	65.55%		5.23m
Sonic 2	79.05		787	2883		0/125	12991/15874	18.16%		3951	57.68%		4.94m
Nope	100.89		710	2259		0/160	19054/21313	10.60%		3822	59.63%		6.46m
BA	72.26		585	3154		0/249	28462/31616	9.98%		4494	50.71%		5.49m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      429/3287  [13.05% sold]
Matinee:     130/773  [16.82% | 5.70% of all tickets sold]
3D:           619/3342  [18.52% | 27.16% of all tickets sold]

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

We do have two recent-ish comps in both Sonic 2 and Minions 2.

 

Minions 2 in particular started incredibly soft, at least in Sacto.  So something to keep in mind, even when adjusting for the differences between a Thur preview start and an all day Wed start.

 

I don't think Minions 2 is a good comp here. Mario has a fanbase that will buy early. Sonic 2 will be much better imo.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/8/2023 at 8:29 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
65	T-1	Jax	4	18	21	64	1,818	3.52%
		Phx	6	18	16	66	1,907	3.46%
		Ral	7	23	23	89	2,704	3.29%
	Total		17	59	60	219	6,429	3.41%
Champions	T-1	Jax	5	9	2	8	882	0.91%
		Phx	6	10	1	5	832	0.60%
		Ral	6	11	13	16	1,083	1.48%
	Total		17	30	16	29	2,797	1.04%
Fast X	T-71	Jax	5	64	24*	125	10,620	1.18%
		Phx	6	33	16*	102	7,613	1.34%
		Ral	8	50	20*	105	8,404	1.25%
	Total		19	147	60*	332	26,637	1.25%
John Wick 4	T-15	Jax	6	42	22	196	7,238	2.71%
		Phx	6	28	28	240	5,746	4.18%
		Ral	8	38	0	218	5,296	4.12%
	Total		20	108	50	654	18,280	3.58%
Scream VI	T-1	Jax	6	42	60	447	5,640	7.93%
		Phx	6	30	84	678	5,442	12.46%
		Ral	8	38	57	381	5,176	7.36%
	Total		20	110	201	1,506	16,258	9.26%
Shazam 2	T-8	Jax	5	57	9	150	9,846	1.52%
		Phx	6	29	4	156	6,134	2.54%
		Ral	8	54	8	181	7,817	2.32%
	Total		19	140	21	487	23,797	2.05%

*Decided to do another Fast X run before Mario goes on sale.  New sales since T-87 (over two weeks)

 

Scream VI T-1 comps

 - Nope - 1.102x (7.06m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 6.02x (8.73m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.57x (6.45m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.075x (4.46m)

 - Halloween Kills - 1.066x (5.17m)

 - Halloween Ends - 1.413x (7.63m)

 - Dune - .854x (4.36m)

 - Ghostbusters (Total) - 1.042x (4.69m)

 - Morbius - .87x (4.96m)

 - Black Adam - .66x (5.01m)

 

Feels like we're aiming for 5m at this point.

 

65 T-1 comps

 - Beast - 1.319x (1.22m)

 - Last Night in Soho - 1.52x (1.14m)

 - Missing - 2.77x (2.11m)

 - Old - 1.084x (1.63m)

 - Lightyear - .186x (909k)

 - Cocaine Bear - .524x (1.05m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - .876x (1.27m)

 

Been increasing the last few days likely because of short presales run.  Hoping for a good couple days to get to 1.5m previews.

 

Champions T-1 comps

 - 12 Mighty Orphans - .829x

 - Fabelmans - .617x (246k)

 - Stillwater - .617x (173k)

 - King Richard - .087x (169k)

 

Shazam 2 T-8 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .947x (4.72m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .468x (2.81m)

 - No Time to Die - .827x (4.3m)

 - F9 - .541x (3.84m)

 - Ghostbusters - .89x (3.69m)

 - Shang-Chi - .448x (3.94m)

 - Venom 2 - .618x (7.17m)

 - Black Adam - .494x (3.75m)

 

John Wick 4 T-15 comps

 - Suicide Squad - 2.76x (11.31m)

 - F9 - 1.209x (8.58m)

 - No Time to Die - 1.847x (9.61m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .404x (5.94m)

 - Jurassic 3 - .336x (5.95m)

 

Fast X is just behind where F9 was at... T-20.  Idk what that means.

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
65	T-0	Jax	4	18	61	125	1,818	6.88%
		Phx	7	19	45	111	2,006	5.53%
		Ral	7	23	32	121	2,704	4.47%
	Total		18	60	138	357	6,528	5.47%
Champions	T-0	Jax	5	9	5	13	882	1.47%
		Phx	7	11	4	9	895	1.01%
		Ral	7	12	3	19	1,180	1.61%
	Total		19	32	12	41	2,957	1.39%
John Wick 4	T-14	Jax	6	42	30	226	7,238	3.12%
		Phx	6	28	17	257	5,746	4.47%
		Ral	8	38	20	238	5,296	4.49%
	Total		20	108	67	721	18,280	3.94%
Scream VI	T-0	Jax	6	42	112	559	5,640	9.91%
		Phx	7	33	166	844	5,610	15.04%
		Ral	8	42	129	510	5,362	9.51%
	Total		21	117	407	1,913	16,612	11.52%
Shazam 2	T-7	Jax	5	57	4	154	9,846	1.56%
		Phx	6	29	5	161	6,134	2.62%
		Ral	8	54	0	181	7,817	2.32%
	Total		19	140	9	496	23,797	2.08%

 

Scream VI T-0 comps

 - Nope - .964x (6.17m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - 5.198x (7.54m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.51x (6.19m)

 - Ghostbusters - 1.068x (4.43m)

 - Halloween Kills - 1.056x (5.12m)

 - Halloween Ends - 1.333x (7.2m)

 - Dune - .865x (4.41m)

 - Ghostbusters (Total) - 1.026x (4.62m)

 - Morbius - .854x (4.87m)

 - Black Adam - .682x (5.19m)

 - Scream 5 - 1.369x (4.79m)

 

I still like my 5m prediction.  

 

65 T-0 comps

 - Beast - 1.545x (1.43m)

 - Last Night in Soho - 2.01x (1.5m)

 - Missing - 2.93x (2.22m)

 - Old - 1.088x (1.63m)

 - Lightyear - .102x (1.02m)

 - Cocaine Bear - .602x (1.2m)

 - Knock at the Cabin - .97x (1.41m)

 

Sticking with 1.5m

 

Champions T-0 comps

 - 12 Mighty Orphans - .854x

 - Fabelmans - .519x (207k)

 - Stillwater - .612x (171k)

 - King Richard - .066x (127k)

 

Maybe it can get to 200k.  

 

Shazam 2 T-7 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .902x (4.49m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .418x (2.51m)

 - No Time to Die - .723x (3.76m)

 - F9 - .514x (3.65m)

 - Ghostbusters - .86x (3.57m)

 - Shang-Chi - .424x (3.73m)

 - Venom 2 - .578x (6.71m)

 - Black Adam - missed

 

Still waiting for sales to start ramping up.  The free fall is pretty disheartening. 

 

John Wick 4 T-14 comps

 - Suicide Squad - 2.92x (11.97m)

 - F9 - 1.265x (8.98m)

 - No Time to Die - 1.873x (9.74m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .42x (6.18m)

 - Jurassic 3 - .363x (6.43m)

[katnisscinnaplex]

Already at 231 OD showings for Mario in my regions and not all theaters are up.  Don't know how often I'll be able to track all those and keep my sanity.

[katnisscinnaplex]

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Scream VI	3D	11	395	395	1,360	29.04%	$15.87	$6,270.24
		PLF	20	1,235	1,235	4,449	27.76%	$15.29	$18,882.31
		Standard	49	967	967	5,932	16.30%	$11.54	$11,155.69
	Total		80	2,597	2,597	11,741	22.12%	$13.98	$36,308.24

 

Scream VI T-0 comps

 - Nope - 2.043x (13.08m)

 - Halloween Ends - 1.208x (6.53m)

 - Morbius - 1.318x (7.51m)

 - FB3 - 1.289x (7.73m)

 - DBZ - 1.138x (4.9m)

 

I tried to find comps in a similar tickets sold range to get a better representation than the smaller horror movies.  That being said, Santikos looks to be pointing to around 7m for previews.  I haven't been tracking here to see if sales have slowed considerably like they did in regionals so take this with a grain of salt.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Menor Reborn said:

I don't think Minions 2 is a good comp here. Mario has a fanbase that will buy early. Sonic 2 will be much better imo.

 

I think a Jurassic movie and a Pixar movie also might not be the worst comps - similar starting sets (okay, maybe not recent Pixar, but possibly Lightyear) with similar early fanbase buyers, but also huge late buying family bases...

[Tinalera]

Scream 6

Thurs Mar 9 Fri mar 10 (T-1 last count)

Nova Scotia Canada

 

 

Nova Scotia	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	3	5	202	911	1113	0.1814
Fri	3	15	245	3843	4088	0.0599

 

 

Final Canada wide count 

 

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouv	Thurs	3	10	240	1892	2132	0.1125
Calgary	Thurs	4	5	100	2216	2316	0.0431
Toronto	Thurs	4	10	407	3259	3666	0.1110
Montreal	Thurs	2	6	312	1392	1704	0.1830
Halifax	Thurs	3	5	202	911	1113	0.1814
Vancouv	Fri	3	20	144	3878	4022	0.0358
Calgary	Fri	4	7	188	3689	3877	0.0484
Toronto	Fri	4	39	508	8729	9237	0.0549
Montreal	Fri	2	25	421	7129	7550	0.0557
Halifax	Fri	3	15	245	3843	4088	0.0599
Total		32	142	2767	36938	39705	0.0696

 

 

There are no New Brunswick or Newfoundland for scream as Presales there was no counts up to this point, and wanted to keep Scream counts consistent as much as possible

[GOGODanca]

Looking at the shows for Mario at my local AMC's and while it has real 3D shows there are no imax 3d or dolby 3d just standard imax and dolby

 

 

[keysersoze123]

 

 

Scream 6 MTC1

Fan shows - 10933/26830 194174.20 232 shows

previews - 55016/317544 890801.98 1935 shows

Friday - 58675/667465 941760.39 3977 shows

 

MTC2

previews - 49027/323103 668070.23 2304 shows

Friday - 52710/529587 664399.47 3461 shows

 

Scream is headed towards 6m+ previews with fan shows if walkups are there. Should have a good weekend as well. No change from yesterday on my projections. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

22 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I think a Jurassic movie and a Pixar movie also might not be the worst comps - similar starting sets (okay, maybe not recent Pixar, but possibly Lightyear) with similar early fanbase buyers, but also huge late buying family bases...

Both of those had pretty unusual presale lengths, though. JWD 42 days and Lightyear I think was only 9. 

[el sid]

Scream VI, counted yesterday for Thursday:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 66 (7 new showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 114 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 57 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 23 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 117 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 328 (9 showtimes) 
LA (AMC Universal): 988 (16 showtimes)
 

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.631. 

Up mediocre 31% since Monday.
Comps (all counted on Wednesday for Thursday): Scream (3.5M from previews) had 1.302 sold tickets in 7 theaters = 4.45M from previews for Scream 6.
M3gan (2.3M) had 450,
Smile (2M) had 306
and HK (4.85M) had 1.006.
 

Scream VI, counted yesterday for Friday:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 319 (10 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 61 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 33 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 6 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 44 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 111 (8 showtimes) 
LA (AMC Universal): 272 (5 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.276.
 

Up good 78% since Monday.
Comps (all counted on Wednesday for Friday): Scream (30M OW) had 1.149 sold tickets,
M3gan (30.4M) had 506,
Smile (22.6M) had 399,
and HK (49.4M) had 1.254.
 

I stick to 35M OW. New numbers in a few hours.

Edited March 9, 2023 by el sid

[Borja9198]

hace 8 minutos, el sid dijo:

Scream VI , contado ayer para el jueves:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 66 (7 nuevos horarios)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 114 (3 horarios)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 57 (4 horarios)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 23 ( 3 funciones)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 117 (2 funciones)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 328 (9 funciones) 
LA (AMC Universal): 988 (16 funciones)
 

Total entradas vendidas en 7 salas: 1.631 . 

Hasta mediocre 31% desde el lunes.
Comps (todas contadas el miércoles para el jueves): Scream (3,5 millones de avances) tenía 1302 boletos vendidos en 7 cines = 4,45 millones de avances para Scream 6.
M3gan (2,3 millones) tenía 450,
Smile ( 2 millones) tenía 306
y HK (4.85M) tenía 1.006.
 

Scream VI , contado ayer para el viernes:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 319 (10 funciones)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 61 (4 funciones)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 33 (3 funciones)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 6 (5 horarios)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 44 (5 horarios)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 111 (8 horarios) 
LA (AMC Universal): 272 (5 horarios)

Total entradas vendidas en 7 salas: 1.276 .
 

Hasta un buen 78% desde el lunes.
Comps (todos contados el miércoles para el viernes): Scream (30M OW) tenía 1.149 boletos vendidos,
M3gan (30.4M) tenía 506,
Smile (22.6M) tenía 399
y HK (49.4M) tenía 1.254.
 

Me quedo con 35M OW. Nuevos numeros en unas horas.

+$40M easy

Edited March 9, 2023 by Borja9198

[YM!]

Mario is going all out at my local theater. It’s the first time I’ve seen a movie start at 10:30 am in years and a big 3D/2D split for PLF moreso than any other tentpole, even Avatar.

12:30/5:00/10:00 for 3D, 2:30 and 7:00 for 2D