The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Anything is possible but I think the Black Adam comp is the best on the list

 

At this point with the level of sales at MTCs, it just isn't possible to go under 2. Probably is already over 2 with sales so far today. 

[JustLurking]

What sort of IM are we expecting for Shazam here?

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Anything is possible but I think the Black Adam comp is the best on the list

 

That is also impossible. its already at that. The problem is you stop looking when the shows are about to start. Movies with trivial presales skew with actual walkups. We will see that with end of day data. 

[Porthos]

11 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	165	22098	23167	1069	4.61%

 

Total Showings Added Today	6
Total Seats Added Today	442
Total Seats Sold Today	260

 

T-1 Comps

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	79.60		281	1343		0/107	15221/16564	8.11%		2352	45.45%		3.26m
LTBC	20.85		1372	5127		0/244	28009/33136	15.47%		7712	13.86%		2.42m
ET	22.88		739	4672		0/136	13796/18468	25.30%		6409	16.68%		2.17m
GBA	51.39		570	2080		0/192	22169/24249	8.58%		3034	35.23%		2.31m
Morbius	43.07		577	2482		0/184	21853/24335	10.20%		3477	30.74%		2.45m
Sonic 2	37.08		787	2883		0/125	12991/15874	18.16%		3951	27.06%		2.32m
Nope	69.01		333	1549		0/145	18685/20234	7.66%		3822	27.97%		4.42m
BA	33.89		585	3154		0/249	28462/31616	9.98%		4494	23.79%		2.58m
AM3	12.35		979	8654		0/305	28519/37173	23.28%		10475	10.21%		2.16m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Shazam 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

====

 

Oooof.

 

...

 

At least the direct CBM comps went over 2m?  Yay?

 

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:45am - 12:10pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	165	21921	23167	1246	5.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

177

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Comps

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS [12:15-12:45]	74.61		327	1670		0/111	15173/16843	9.92%		2352	52.98%		3.06m
LTBC [12:00-12:50]	19.64		1216	6343		0/247	27313/33656	18.85%		7712	16.16%		2.28m
ET [12:00-12:30]	23.45		642	5314		0/136	13154/18468	28.77%		6409	19.44%		2.23m
GBA [12:00-12:45]	49.98		413	2493		0/192	21771/24264	10.27%		3034	41.07%		2.25m
Morb [12:00-12:40]	43.02		414	2896		0/183	21262/24158	11.99%		3477	35.84%		2.45m
Sonic 2[11:40-12:05]	38.37		364	3247		0/126	12668/15915	20.40%		3951	31.54%		2.40m
Nope [12:00-12:30]	43.64		596	2855		0/160	18458/21313	13.40%		3822	32.60%		2.79m
BA [11:35-12:25]	34.42		466	3620		0/250	28058/31678	11.43%		4494	27.73%		2.62m
AM3 [11:35-12:25]	13.27		979	9392		0/308	27981/37373	25.13%		10475	11.89%		2.32m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Shazam 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Not much to say that hasn't been already said.

 

Well, will note that DC has been historically soft in Sacramento for whatever reason, but even the Black Adam comp isn't anything to write home about.  The Suicide Squad, being an R-rated film, won't be as good as a comp.  But then again, maybe the ATP hikes since then will counteract that to some degree.

 

Either way, no real change locally.

Edited March 16, 2023 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

What sort of IM are we expecting for Shazam here?

it will be higher than norm but still not as good as non SH movies. Let us wait until we have some walkups data to hone in on a number. 

[John Marston]

So instead of low  20s it will be high 20s. A total win!

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

it will be higher than norm but still not as good as non SH movies. Let us wait until we have some walkups data to hone in on a number. 

I am expecting ~8 tops given I assume spring break on thu should atleast counterbalance the more family appeal of shazam relative to normal sh films, thinking it may even be a bit generous given the reviews aren't very good for it. Are you thinking higher?

Edited March 16, 2023 by JustLurking

[Ronin46]

3.5/28.

[Menor the Destroyer]

I don't expect Sat bump to be that great given spring break. Looking at Fri sales it seems more matinee skewed than recent blockbuster releases. 

Edited March 16, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[MightyDargon]

I don't think ther'll be too many walkups. Maybe a decent skew towards matinee/discount Tuesday because I'll be damned if I'm spending a night on THIS movie.

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I don't expect Sat bump to be that great given spring break. Looking at Fri sales it seems more matinee skewed than recent blockbuster releases. 

[MightyDargon]

What exactly is "the hook" for Shazam 2 for the over 18 crowd anyway? I'm skeptical this movie will get a "full" benefit from Spring Break, it's not likely to appeal to the college crowd that much. I suspect older audiences are saving money for Wick 4.

[keysersoze123]

20 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I am expecting ~8 tops given I assume spring break on thu should atleast counterbalance the more family appeal of shazam relative to normal sh films, thinking it may even be a bit generous given the reviews aren't very good for it. Are you thinking higher?

As I said let us wait for some real data before I hone in on the number. Small movies tend to have higher IM. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

It will depend a lot on whether kids are off this week in the area or not, I suppose. It did look more normal in some areas. Did you check Alpha Sat btw? 

Edited March 16, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[DAJK]

Just an anecdote, Mummies is currently the #1 selling film in Canada today as of 12:00 PST (about 40% ahead of Shazam's total ticket sales as of right now) on Shazam's OPENING NIGHT!

 

Now, Shazam's higher ticket price and PLFs will more than make up for that, but this is sad LMAO.

Edited March 16, 2023 by DAJK

[TalismanRing]

9 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

What exactly is "the hook" for Shazam 2 for the over 18 crowd anyway? I'm skeptical this movie will get a "full" benefit from Spring Break, it's not likely to appeal to the college crowd that much. I suspect older audiences are saving money for Wick 4.

 

[Poseidon]

13 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Just an anecdote, Mummies is currently the #1 selling film in Canada today as of 12:00 PST (about 40% ahead of Shazam's total ticket sales as of right now) on Shazam's OPENING NIGHT!

 

Now, Shazam's higher ticket price and PLFs will more than make up for that, but this is sad LMAO.

 

Great to see that at least in Canada some people use their brains. 

Why in the world wouldn't any US Studio buy the distribution rights for "Mummies" and open in a deserted market?

 

It's doing fairly decent business in Europe. 

 

Of course it won't be a huge hit, but the theaters have so much room right now. Why say "no" to a $30m movie? 

Edited March 16, 2023 by Poseidon

[keysersoze123]

Mid morning update. 

 

Shazam 2 MTC1 previews  - 49953/553082 849452.83 2871 shows

 

Its where I expected yesterday night. headed towards 70k finish. Even with over index I am expecting 3.5m previews. 

[MightyDargon]

I expect a very quick drop post Friday if the RT decline continues/

[AJG]

Shazam's Verified is at 71%. Below $30m OW is starting to feel real to me.