The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Krissykins]

$3.5m honestly doesn’t seem as bad as the last week or so suggested lol. I thought from here it looked like 2 would be a struggle. 
 

Can’t see it getting to $30m though 

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Magic died tonight.

 

Lot of joking going around tonight about this, but I'm already on record as to not expecting much accuracy for films this low.  Said it for Creed III and I mean it double for this.  If I just don't have many low-end comps, expecting super exact accuracy is expecting... a bit much, even for Sacto Dark Magic.  I think the lack of low-end comps is far more of a real factor here than lack of Spring Break locally.

 

...

 

Plus, studios have been known to fudge embarrassing preview numbers (*cough* Stilldon'tbuyLightyearsreportednumber *cough*).

 

Besides, if Sacto is in fact underindexing/underperforming, it's hardly alone given reports out of Philly, Canada, and TalismanRing's corner of NY.

 

Honestly, if it comes at all close, I'll be fairly pleased.  Sad, but still pleased. 

Edited March 17, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

BTW, speaking of underperfoming locals, sure hope Shazam 2 didn't break @katnisscinnaplex's spirit, as they haven't posted since Tues.  

[Mulder]

I don't think 3.5's too different from the higher comps of 2.8/2.9 that people had. It just slightly over-indexed. 

[vafrow]

19 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Plus, studios have been known to fudge embarrassing preview numbers (*cough* Stilldon'tbuyLightyearsreportednumber *cough*).

 

 

It'll be interesting to see how much energy is put into even defending this one from the studio. If they haven't been bothered to strongly promote it, I can't see too much effort made to distort the preview numbers.

 

I agree that it's going to be a hard film to read though, even to get a decent multiplier.

 

I'd generally peg this franchise to be the most family oriented superhero franchise outside of Spiderman, but at these low numbers, it might be the DC die hards driving what little attendance there is, which makes a Saturday bump harder to predict.

[stripe]

3.5M previews would be kind of decent, IMHO. It points that there has been an interesting last push of demand.

9x previews would wear to an opening of 31.5M. Anyways, I am expecting healthier legs, because it's family friendly film. Wouldn't be surprised with a 35M opening

[JustLurking]

11 minutes ago, stripe said:

3.5M previews would be kind of decent, IMHO. It points that there has been an interesting last push of demand.

9x previews would wear to an opening of 31.5M. Anyways, I am expecting healthier legs, because it's family friendly film. Wouldn't be surprised with a 35M opening

10x and even 9x for a poorly received and reviewed film with a spring-break boosted thu previews feel really optimistic to me.

[stripe]

5 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

10x and even 9x for a poorly received and reviewed film with a spring-break boosted thu previews feel really optimistic to me.

 

Didn't think about spring-break effect... My bad.

Anyways, IMHO, reception is not poor enough to damage the IM of this kind of film. In fact it's just a mild not enthusiastic reception

[Porthos]

On 3/10/2023 at 12:28 AM, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-70 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	165	24998	25514	516	2.02%

 

Total Showings Since Last Thursday	9
Total Seats Since Last Thursday	1885
Total Seats Sold Since Last Thursday	35

 

BREAKDOWN

  Reveal hidden contents

 

T-76:	15
T-75:	9
T-74:	10
T-73:	-4
T-72:	-3
T-71:	6
T-70:	2

 

 

0.96774x F9 (2020) at T-74 at the equivalent sources of tracking.    [???m]

Regal:       77/8037  [0.96% sold]
Matinee:    11/2648  [0.42% | 2.13% of all tickets sold]

 

NB:  F9 tickets stopped at T-73 due to theaters shutting down because of the COVID pandemic.  So we're truly flying blind until around T-42 or so when the first day of JWD's sales comes online.

 

Next update will be next Thursday.

 

 

 Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-63 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	166	25103	25636	533	2.08%

 

Total Showings Since Last Thursday	1
Total Seats Since Last Thursday	122
Total Seats Sold Since Last Thursday	17

 

BREAKDOWN

Spoiler

 

T-69:	-2
T-68:	8
T-67:	5
T-66:	-2
T-65:	4
T-64:	1
T-63:	3

 

 

 

0.97986x F9 after three days of pre-sales/T-21. [6.9m]

 

Regal:     83/8037  [1.03% sold]
Matinee:    12/2648  [0.45% | 2.25% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Next update in ***TWO*** weeks (Mar 30th)

[Porthos]

On 3/16/2023 at 12:31 AM, Porthos said:

 

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	109	13716	15299	1583	10.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

120

 

T-8 Comps

	%		Sold T-8	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	135.07		134	1172		0/144	21181/22353	5.24%		3737	42.36%		8.37m
TGM	28.42		365	5570		0/268	31445/37015	15.05%		11474	13.80%		5.47m
JWD	44.33		191	3571		0/223	24183/27754	12.87%		4456	35.53%		7.98m
BA	124.25		82	1274		0/152	21685/22959	5.55%		4494	35.22%		9.44m
A2	40.36		261	3922		0/184	22207/26129	15.01%		8986	17.62%		6.86m
Scream 6	177.47		42	892		0/77	8855/9747	9.15%		3134	50.51%		10.12m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Wick 4's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     340/3784  [8.99% sold]
Matinee:    67/1253  [5.35% | 4.23% of all tickets sold]

 

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-7 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	113	13827	15571	1744	11.20%

 

Total Showings Added Today	4
Total Seats Added Today	272
Total Seats Sold Today	161

 

T-7 Comps

	%		Sold T-7	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	133.95		130	1302		0/144	21051/22353	5.82%		3737	46.67%		8.30m
TGM	29.35		373	5943		0/271	31366/37309	15.93%		11474	15.20%		5.65m
JWD	44.89		314	3885		0/223	23869/27754	14.00%		4456	39.14%		8.08m
BA	124.84		123	1397		0/152	21562/22959	6.08%		4494	38.81%		9.49m
A2	41.98		232	4154		0/184	21975/26129	15.90%		8986	19.41%		7.14m
Scream 6	172.84		117	1009		0/77	8738/9747	10.35%		3134	55.65%		9.85m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Wick 4's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     404/3784  [10.68% sold]
Matinee:    77/1253  [6.15% | 4.42% of all tickets sold]

[Eric Furiosa]

23 hours ago, Eric Batson said:

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	71	991	13379	7.41%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 78

 

Comp - T-8

2.581x of The Suicide Squad (10.58M)

1.030x of Venom 2 (11.95M)

1.053x of No Time to Die (6.63M)

1.150x of Dune (5.86M)

2.967x of Uncharted (10.98M)

1.248x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (7.49M)

0.516x of Top Gun 2 (9.94M)

0.465x of Jurassic World: Dominion (8.37M)

3.394x of Bullet Train (15.61M)

0.398x of Avatar 2 (6.77M)

John Wick: Chapter 4 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	71	1042	13379	7.79%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 51

 

Comp - T-7

2.511x of The Suicide Squad (10.29M)

1.004x of Venom 2 (11.64M)

0.987x of No Time to Die (6.22M)

1.126x of Dune (5.74M)

2.706x of Uncharted (10.01M)

1.171x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (7.02M)

0.497x of Top Gun 2 (9.57M)

0.466x of Jurassic World: Dominion (8.38M)

3.177x of Bullet Train (14.61M)

0.386x of Avatar 2 (6.55M)

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

 

Lot of joking going around tonight about this, but I'm already on record as to not expecting much accuracy for films this low.  Said it for Creed III and I mean it double for this.  If I just don't have many low-end comps, expecting super exact accuracy is expecting... a bit much, even for Sacto Dark Magic.  I think the lack of low-end comps is far more of a real factor here than lack of Spring Break locally.

 

...

 

Plus, studios have been known to fudge embarrassing preview numbers (*cough* Stilldon'tbuyLightyearsreportednumber *cough*).

 

Besides, if Sacto is in fact underindexing/underperforming, it's hardly alone given reports out of Philly, Canada, and TalismanRing's corner of NY.

 

Honestly, if it comes at all close, I'll be fairly pleased.  Sad, but still pleased. 

excuses won't save you. dark magic defeated 😎

Edited March 17, 2023 by charlie Jatinder
on serious note, almost all our regionals seem to be not having spring breaks, except Harkins, which also did $5M+ equivalent in Arizona but CA was around $2.75M.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

I don't think 3.5's too different from the higher comps of 2.8/2.9 that people had. It just slightly over-indexed. 

 

Well, yeah.  But was gonna save that sort of commentary until we get an official number.

 

(plus, like, the amount of care-age I have about this level of previews could be measured in a thimble ).

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

excuses won't save you. dark magic defeated 😎

 

 

(might be reaction bait — but it's still bait, Jat)

((and as such I shall ignore said bait 😉))

[Eric Furiosa]

23 hours ago, Eric Batson said:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-21 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	159	1135	31960	3.55%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 47

 

Comp - T-21

0.769x of Sing 2 (7.49M)

3.592x of Sonic 2 (22.45M)

24.149x of Minions 2 (259.6M)

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	159	1185	31960	3.71%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 50

 

Comp - T-20

0.804x of Sing 2 (7.83M)

3.229x of Sonic 2 (20.18M)

22.358x of Minions 2 (240.35M)

[Maggie]

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Renfield ($14-19M/$37-55M) and The Pope’s Exorcist ($4-9M/$9-24M), Plus John Wick: Chapter 4 Updates ($59-74M/$156-210M)

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-renfield-and-the-popes-exorcist-plus-john-wick-chapter-4-updates/

[charlie Jatinder]

32 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Long Range Box Office Forecast: Renfield ($14-19M/$37-55M) and The Pope’s Exorcist ($4-9M/$9-24M), Plus John Wick: Chapter 4 Updates ($59-74M/$156-210M)

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-renfield-and-the-popes-exorcist-plus-john-wick-chapter-4-updates/

Wick pinpoint change 36%. That means last week was around 50M and now 70M ? @Shawn

[Legion Again]

35 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Wick pinpoint change 36%. That means last week was around 50M and now 70M ? @Shawn

Previous low 49 vs now 59: +20.4%

high 59-> 74: +15.6%

geomean 56->66.1: +18%

 

Even new high of 74 over previous geomean is only +32. Does seem a  bit mysterious 

[filmlover]

Dungeons & Dragons tracking went up a bit too. Positive buzz at work!

 

Renfield looks like a lot of fun. I think it's gonna be another silly hit for Universal.

[upriser7]

any new D&D tracking numbers ?