The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[scytheavatar]

Has anyone been tracking Suzume? Just wondering how likely it is to outgross Renfield in opening week.

Edited April 13, 2023 by scytheavatar

[JustLurking]

51 minutes ago, scytheavatar said:

Has anyone been tracking Suzume? Just wondering how likely it is to outgross Renfield in opening week.

No chance from the numbers people posted.

Edited April 13, 2023 by JustLurking

[SchumacherFTW]

3 hours ago, scytheavatar said:

Has anyone been tracking Suzume? Just wondering how likely it is to outgross Renfield in opening week.

The US doesn't show up for original anime movies in the same way that they do for Shounen adaptations. If it can hit 10m total that's a big win. 

[OceanBlvd]

I mean Shinkai has been remaking the same movie over again and over again 🤭, so I don’t blame them.

Edited April 13, 2023 by OceanBlvd

[Porthos]

On 4/11/2023 at 11:43 PM, Porthos said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	206	26760	29669	2909	9.80%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

114

 

 

T-23 Comps:

	%		Sold T-23	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	33.14		195	8779		0/329	32131/40910	21.46%		21117	13.78%		11.93m
L&T	61.58		563	4724		0/228	26876/31600	14.95%		16962	17.15%		17.86m
BP2	50.07		102	5810		1/294	31209/37019	15.69%		16800	17.32%		14.02m
AM3	75.66		127	3845		0/235	28711/32556	11.81%		10475	27.77%		13.24m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      509/11075  [4.60% sold]
Matinee:     83/3555  [2.33% | 2.85% of all tickets sold]
3D:            305/5522  [5.52% | 10.48% of all tickets sold]

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	206	26655	29669	3014	10.16%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

105

 

T-22 Comps:

	%		Sold T-22	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	33.69		168	8947		0/329	31963/40910	21.87%		21117	14.27%		12.13m
L&T	59.57		336	5060		0/228	26540/31600	16.01%		16962	17.77%		17.27m
BP2	50.67		138	5948		1/294	31071/37019	16.07%		16800	17.94%		14.19m
AM3	76.03		119	3964		0/235	28592/32556	12.18%		10475	28.77%		13.31m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      519/11075  [4.69% sold]
Matinee:     85/3555  [2.39% | 2.82% of all tickets sold]
3D:            322/5522  [5.83% | 10.68% of all tickets sold]

[filmlover]

Renfield and The Pope's Exorcist: $8-10M each

Suzume: $5-8M

Mafia Mamma: sub-$5M

Sweetwater: $1-2M

 

Beau Is Afraid opens in 4 NYC/LA theaters.

 

Box Office Preview: Renfield, Mafia Mamma, Pope’s Exorcist, Suzume – The Hollywood Reporter

[Shawn Robbins]

12 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Does BOP always post these breakdowns whenever there's early access? Or is it whenever the studio reports it? 

Depends. The social posts only include them if they are confirmed by the studio.

 

However, generally speaking, I try to include them in the analysis write-ups on Friday morning (or whenever a preview gross is out) if there's enough verifiable data or a trustworthy source that's approved that information to be made public to report it as an unofficial source.

 

In other words, it's best not to rely exclusively on the Twitter posts from BOP. Check my write-ups on the site, and if they aren't there for some reason, you can find unofficial/rough estimates by asking in the thread here.

[DAJK]

Damn, was really hoping for a Renfield breakout. Universal’s had a nice streak of crazy, wacky concepts this year.

[keysersoze123]

On 4/12/2023 at 9:11 AM, keysersoze123 said:

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3

MTC1 Wed - 3457/17472 160230.00 58 shows

MTC1 Thursday(T-23) - 88817/1147944 1594313.19 7017 shows +1629

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol 3

MTC1 Wed - 3532/17472 163725.00 58 shows

MTC1 Thursday(T-22) - 90531/1148493 1623158.29 7022 shows +1714

 

FYI Ant 3 sold 2277 on the equivalent day. Still tracking under 3/4 of that movie. I am not seeing any catalyst for 2 more weeks when the premier/reactions will be out. I wonder if they will go for barrage of ads during NBA playoffs to up the ante and if that helps. Let us wait and see. 

Edited April 13, 2023 by keysersoze123

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/11/2023 at 3:46 PM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
You There (EA)	T-8	Jax	3	3	1	1	199	0.50%
		Phx	1	1	2	2	41	4.88%
		Ral	6	6	26	26	552	4.71%
	T-8 Total		10	10	29	29	792	3.66%
Evil Dead Rise	T-9	Jax	5	15	36	36	2,533	1.42%
		Phx	5	8	76	76	1,524	4.99%
		Ral	7	14	56	56	1,636	3.42%
	T-9 Total		17	37	168	168	5,693	2.95%
Guardians 3	T-23	Jax	5	98	679	679	15,754	4.31%
		Phx	4	82	449	449	12,270	3.66%
		Ral	11	159	1,011	1,011	21,622	4.68%
	T-23 Tot		19	339	2,139	2,139	49,646	4.31%
Mafia Mamma	T-2	Jax	5	8	9	9	671	1.34%
		Phx	5	8	6	6	603	1.00%
		Ral	6	11	9	9	626	1.44%
	T-2 Total		16	27	24	24	1,900	1.26%
Mafia Ma (EA)	T-0	Jax	2	2	27	27	216	12.50%
		Phx	4	4	45	45	433	10.39%
		Ral	1	1	16	16	42	38.10%
	T-0 Total		7	7	88	88	691	12.74%
Nefarious	T-2	Jax	4	13	10	10	818	1.22%
		Phx	3	10	30	30	1,177	2.55%
		Ral	1	3	9	9	219	4.11%
	T-2 Total		8	26	49	49	2,214	2.21%
Renfield	T-2	Jax	5	12	34	34	1,295	2.63%
		Phx	6	14	75	75	1,638	4.58%
		Ral	8	23	50	50	2,597	1.93%
	T-2 Total		19	49	159	159	5,530	2.88%
Renfield (EA)	T-1	Jax	1	1	18	18	81	22.22%
		Ral	1	1	8	8	84	9.52%
	T-1 Total		2	2	26	26	165	15.76%
LotR RotK (Re)	T-2	Jax	6	8	377	377	962	39.19%
		Phx	4	5	305	305	363	84.02%
		Ral	5	6	529	529	823	64.28%
	T-2 Total		15	19	1,211	1,211	2,148	56.38%
Suzume	T-2	Jax	4	11	49	49	1,725	2.84%
		Phx	6	17	106	106	2,169	4.89%
		Ral	7	20	120	120	1,155	10.39%
	T-2 Total		17	48	275	275	5,049	5.45%
Sweetwater	T-2	Jax	3	6	0	0	386	0.00%
		Phx	4	8	3	3	1,568	0.19%
		Ral	5	13	2	2	1,174	0.17%
	T-2 Total		12	27	5	5	3,128	0.16%
The Covenant	T-9	Jax	5	8	1	1	970	0.10%
		Phx	4	6	0	0	988	0.00%
		Ral	5	8	11	11	972	1.13%
	T-9 Total		14	22	12	12	2,930	0.41%
Pope's Exorcist	T-2	Jax	5	13	16	16	1,369	1.17%
		Phx	6	14	33	33	1,219	2.71%
		Ral	7	19	43	43	1,644	2.62%
	T-2 Total		18	46	92	92	4,232	2.17%

 

Looks like there will be plenty to see coming up. 

 

Mafia Mamma (Total) T-2 comps

 - Last Night in Soho (Total) - .767x (575k)

 - The Menu (Total) - .353x (353k)

 - Ghostbusters (Total) - .099x (448k)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .143x (658k)

 

Nefarious T-2 comps

 - Ambulance - .544x (381k)

 - Bones and All - .907x (313k)

 - Missing - .803x (610k)

 - Reminiscence (OD) - 1.065x (724k)

 

The Pope's Exorcist T-2 comps

 - Antlers - 1.533x (567k)

 - Firestarter - 1.034x (388k)

 - Men - .979x (414k)

 - X - 1.034x (455k)

 

Renfield (Total) T-2 comps

 - Black Phone (Total) - .413x (1.24m)

 - Candyman - .907x (1.72m)

 - Resident Evil - 1.331x (1.24m)

 

Suzume T-2 comps

 - Slime - 3.056x (764k)

 - One Piece - .395x (669k)

 - JJK 0 - .203x (586k)

 - Dragon Ball Z - .223x (961k)

 

Evil Dead Rise T-9 comps

 - Scream VI - .224x (1.28m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - .949x (2.85m)

 - Nope - .357x (2.28m)

 - Halloween Ends - .435x (2.35m)

 

Guardians 3 T-23 comps

 - Ant-Man 3 - .739x (12.94m)

 - Black Widow - 1.97x (26m)

 - Doctor Strange 2 - .268x (9.64m)

 - Thor 4 - .634x (18.38m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
You There (EA)	T-6	Jax	4	4	7	8	335	2.39%
		Phx	1	1	3	5	41	12.20%
		Ral	6	6	-1	25	552	4.53%
	Total		11	11	9	38	928	4.09%
Evil Dead Rise	T-7	Jax	6	16	37	73	2,574	2.84%
		Phx	6	10	15	91	1,676	5.43%
		Ral	7	14	12	68	1,636	4.16%
	Total		19	40	64	232	5,886	3.94%
Mafia Mamma	T-0	Jax	5	7	0	9	585	1.54%
		Phx	6	9	9	15	666	2.25%
		Ral	6	11	12	21	626	3.35%
	Total		17	27	21	45	1,877	2.40%
Nefarious	T-0	Jax	4	13	12	22	818	2.69%
		Phx	4	12	5	35	1,319	2.65%
		Ral	2	6	12	21	351	5.98%
	Total		10	31	29	78	2,488	3.14%
Renfield	T-0	Jax	5	13	43	77	1,345	5.72%
		Phx	7	18	38	113	1,879	6.01%
		Ral	8	23	62	112	2,597	4.31%
	Total		20	54	143	302	5,821	5.19%
LotR RotK (Re)	T-0	Jax	6	8	43	420	962	43.66%
		Phx	4	5	8	313	363	86.23%
		Ral	5	7	54	583	936	62.29%
	Total		15	20	105	1,316	2,261	58.20%
Suzume	T-0	Jax	5	14	37	86	2,680	3.21%
		Phx	6	17	46	152	2,169	7.01%
		Ral	7	20	45	165	1,155	14.29%
	Total		18	51	128	403	6,004	6.71%
Sweetwater	T-0	Jax	4	8	2	2	512	0.39%
		Phx	6	11	1	4	1,803	0.22%
		Ral	5	13	0	2	1,174	0.17%
	Total		15	32	3	8	3,489	0.23%
The Covenant	T-7	Jax	5	8	0	1	970	0.10%
		Phx	5	7	0	0	1,042	0.00%
		Ral	6	10	4	15	1,118	1.34%
	Total		16	25	4	16	3,130	0.51%

Popes Exorcist	T-0	Jax	5	13	33	49	1,369	3.58%
		Phx	7	15	37	70	1,251	5.60%
		Ral	7	19	41	84	1,644	5.11%
	Total		19	47	111	203	4,264	4.76%

 

Mafia Mamma (Total) T-0 comps

 - Last Night in Soho (Total) - .576x (432k)

 - The Menu (Total) - .319x (319k)

 - Ghostbusters (Total) - .071x (321k)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .102x (470k)

 

Nefarious T-0 comps

 - Ambulance - .462x (323k)

 - Bones and All - .821x (283k)

 - Missing - .639x (486k)

 - Reminiscence (OD) - .591x (402k)

 

The Pope's Exorcist T-0 comps

 - Antlers - 1.72x (637k)

 - Firestarter - 1.372x (514k)

 - Men - 1.344x (569k)

 - X - .91x (401k)

 

Renfield (Total) T-0 comps

 - Black Phone - .447x (1.16m)

 - Candyman - .584x (1.11m)

 - Resident Evil - .993x (929k)

 - Massive Talent - 1.148x (804k)

 

Suzume T-0 comps

 - Slime - 2.963x (741k)

 - One Piece - .434x (736k)

 - JJK 0 - .231x (664k)

 - Dragon Ball Z - .219x (944k)

 

Evil Dead Rise T-7 comps

 - Scream VI - .278x (1.58m)

 - Black Phone (Total) - 1.07x (3.22m)

 - Nope - .441x (2.82m)

 - Halloween Ends - .516x (2.78m)

[John Marston]

 

[el sid]

The Pope's Excorcist, counted today for today:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 62 (3 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 16 (3 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 4 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 8 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 17 (1 showtime)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 58 (3 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 92 (3 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 257.

Up quite good 46% since yesterday.
Comps (all films counted on Thursday for Thursday): Firestarter (375k from previews) had 171 sold tickets,
Prey for the Devil (660k) had 164,
Smile (2M) had 467
M3gan (2.75M) had 782 sold tickets
and The Invitation (775k) had 218 sold tickets.

So around 600k from the Firestarter comp but all other comps rather point to 1M.

The Pope's Exorcist, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 68 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 18 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 4 (4 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 7 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 10 (4 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 21 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 71 (4 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 199 .

Up ok 40% since yesterday.
Comps (all films counted on Thursday for Friday): Firestarter (3.8M OW) had 144 sold tickets,
Prey for the Devil (7.2M) had 262,
Smile (22.6M) had 549,
M3gan (30.4M) had 752 sold tickets,
The Conjuring III (no Thursday previews) had 1.074,
Malignant (5.4M) had 237,
Old (16.9M) had 500
and The Invitation (6.8M) had 204 sold tickets.

Around 7M OW is still my guess. With good walk-ups close to 10M.
 

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

If we did not have the data, this would have been utterly shocking. That said even 130m looks a stretch at this point. Presales are not backloaded over the weekend like say Wakanda. So it has to see huge spurts to even hit this number. Let us see how things go. 

[Willowra]

11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

If we did not have the data, this would have been utterly shocking. That said even 130m looks a stretch at this point. Presales are not backloaded over the weekend like say Wakanda. So it has to see huge spurts to even hit this number. Let us see how things go. 

So 21M in previews as per deadline?

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Willowra said:

So 21M in previews as per deadline?

I dont think industry tracking looks at day by day breakdown. They look at OW depending on metrics around Awareness/Definite Interest/First Choice numbers. Plus they might take presales into account. @Shawn would know but it seems to be a closely guarded secret at this point :-)

[Shawn Robbins]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont think industry tracking looks at day by day breakdown. They look at OW depending on metrics around Awareness/Definite Interest/First Choice numbers. Plus they might take presales into account. @Shawn would know but it seems to be a closely guarded secret at this point 🙂

Yeah, unless something has changed, they don't typically weigh pre-sales or daily breakdowns the way we do.

 

It's harder to tell these days, but Deadline's (and others') tracking articles are always 3 weeks out from release -- which is exactly when NRG has historically (for many, many years) released their awareness/interest/etc. numbers like clockwork.

[ThomasNicole]

39 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

If we did not have the data, this would have been utterly shocking. That said even 130m looks a stretch at this point. Presales are not backloaded over the weekend like say Wakanda. So it has to see huge spurts to even hit this number. Let us see how things go. 

They said distribution sources pointed that marketing hasn´t really fired up yet, so i would guess they´re probably factoring some more aggresive campaign in the next weeks and good reviews / WOM into their 130M tracking 

 

I think a great movie can build up intest and a huge surge on sales close to release and during the OW especially for a brand more isolated like this one, but it´s very worrying seeing Marvel not really doing anything different so far knowing it´s tracking well below Vol 2 and seeing these presales pattern

[Maggie]

7 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

 

 

I think a great movie can build up intest and a huge surge on sales close to release and during the OW especially for a brand more isolated like this one, but it´s very worrying seeing Marvel not really doing anything different so far knowing it´s tracking well below Vol 2 and seeing these presales pattern

I don't think Marvel can really do that much to increase sales. People know what to expect from this franchise. It's more of the same. Huge surge won't happen without something drastic happening between sequels ( a GOD forbid...a death...see Dark Knight and Fast and Furios)or if the predecessor did ok but it was discovered later at home (John Wick,), which is not the case here because this franchise did great things from the start

 

All in all, i think the franchise has reached its ceiling

Edited April 13, 2023 by Maggie

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Vol 2 started tracking at $160M before ending up around $14M less. Different times of course, but worth noting I think. Given that presales have been struggling to keep up with Ant-Man I feel like we’ll see something similar. Just depends on this final marketing push.

[interiorgatordecorator]

avatar 2 earth day re-release has been confirmed in some countries, any rumblings on the domestic front?