The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[filmlover]

Handful of theaters are showing an early access of screening of The Covenant at 4 today and they're actually doing decent looking around? Anything over a $5M opening would be a surprise given how so little buzz there is for it.

[M37]

With the major caveat that I've only been casually keeping up with tracking, put me in the camp that it's too soon to write the GOTG3 under AMWQ or $100M eulogy. Going to call back to something I said in the early days of debate over AMWQ's presales:

On 1/19/2023 at 2:04 AM, M37 said:

Just think there's a decent chance AMWQ may prove to be more of a smaller version of MoM than falling on a trendline that includes Thor and especially BPWF

 

I understand the proximity in both time and OW value makes AMWQ the de-facto comp ... but I think its a poor one within the MCU, existing on a somewhat different plane than the likes of Thor & BPWF in having more back-loaded sales trajectories.  GOTG has never been a fan-heavy/frontloaded sub-franchise; even highly anticipated GOTG2, after the leggy run of the first, had a solid IM and OW/OWeek multiplier relative to comparable titles at the time of release. Throw in the Easter/Spring Break and Mario's success as limiting factors in the first wave of sales, and the bad taste from lower quality Thor and AMWQ (and even that low-budget GOTG Xmas Special) making buyers more cautious, and IMO its just too early to hit the eject button here

 

For now, I'm mostly focused the Thor comp values, and while even those don't suggest a $20M Thursday in line with $120-$130M OW forecasts, they aren't as doom and gloom as some of the others either, with room to grow if reviews are positive

[Sckathian]

Sorry if it has been asked, do we have a good example of a film which rose quite sharply after its previews/reviews after middling tracking? Preferably a franchise film but just interested if anyone has one off hand.

[Tinalera]

Guardians of the galaxy 3

Thurs May 4 Fri May 5

Eastern Canada (Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Newfoundland) (T-19)

 

NS		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	Thurs	4	16	248	4134	4382	0.0565
	Fri	4	22	138	1679	1817	0.0759
NB		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	Thurs	3	12	111	2661	2772	0.0400
	Fri	4	15	57	3753	3810	0.0149
NFLD	Thurs	1	4	53	911	964	0.0581
	Fri	1	5	24	1115	1145	0.0209

 

 

Antman Quantumania approx same time

 

Antman Quantumania

Thurs Feb 16 and Fri Feb 17

East Coast/ Overall total

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Nova Sc	Thurs	4	18	592	4050	4642	0.1275
	fri	4	26	258	6402	6660	0.0387
New B	Thurs	3	7	87	1329	1416	0.0614
	fri	3	14	73	2680	2753	0.0265
St Jon NF	Thurs	1	6	249	1138	1387	0.1795
	fri	1	8	161	1685	1846	0.0872

[el sid]

I almost forgot that I counted Evil Dead Rise on Friday.

Evil Dead Rise, counted last Friday for Thursday, April 20:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 47 (2 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 78 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 15 (1 showtime)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 12 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 17 (1 showtime)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 97 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 155 (2 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 421.

Comps (all counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday = 3 days left for EDR): Prey for the Devil (660k from previews) had 114 sold tickets,
Smile (2M) had 213,
M3gan (2.75M) had 274,
Barbarian (850k) had 156
and The Invitation (775k) had 96 sold tickets.

Evil Dead Rise, counted last Friday for Friday, April 21:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 66 (5 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 13 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 16 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 15 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 8 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 73 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 83 (4 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 274.

Comps (again counted on Monday of the release week for Friday = 3 days left for EDR): Old had 150 sold tickets,
Prey for the Devil had 149 sold tickets,
Smile had 229,
M3gan had 247,
Barbarian had 70
and The Invitation had 87 sold tickets.
The Black Phone had with 9 days left 170 sold tickets.

These are only the presales of my 7 theaters but so far it looks very solid. Combined with the very good reviews on RT and from users on imdb I stay optimistic that it reaches 20M OW.

Edited April 16, 2023 by el sid

[M37]

41 minutes ago, Sckathian said:

Sorry if it has been asked, do we have a good example of a film which rose quite sharply after its previews/reviews after middling tracking? Preferably a franchise film but just interested if anyone has one off hand.

It’s a little difficult to disentangle because of the EA shows, but Batman absolutely saw a review bump that pushed its OW higher than tracking was suggesting only a few days before, though probably not “sharply.”  (That also bled into second weekend with a sub-50% hold)

 

There, I do think the DC brand was tarnished to a point that there was some hesitation from ticket buyers waiting for reviews/WOM … and it’s not unreasonable to think MCU has now fallen to a similar level (wether or not GOTG3 is the one to break that streak we can’t yet say)

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Sckathian said:

Sorry if it has been asked, do we have a good example of a film which rose quite sharply after its previews/reviews after middling tracking? Preferably a franchise film but just interested if anyone has one off hand.

 

TGM, I think...I'd have to look back, but I remember most folks having it under $100M (like $95M OW) for a long time...of course, I think no one knew what to comp it to...

[keysersoze123]

15 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

TGM, I think...I'd have to look back, but I remember most folks having it under $100M (like $95M OW) for a long time...of course, I think no one knew what to comp it to...

I dont think TGM for previews or friday showed great walkups. Magic happened on saturday increase and especially crazy holds on sunday/monday and beyond. Previews were kind of depressed due to early shows on tue/wed for sure. Even after friday numbers OW around 110m were thrown around.

 

Anyway we have argued all we can about GOTG and now let us wait and see closer to release how things go. Thor had a short presales cycle and so never had a very low PS day. At this point it was still early and was selling 7K+ tickets !!! its slowest rates were around 4K per day. Wakanda had the longest PS cycle for a MCU sequel in past 2 years and was at its slowest pace 2k+ around this point. But it did start accelerating after the weekend as it had premier earlier than what Guardians is doing. So this is unchartered territory for sure. 

[TheFlatLannister]

Evil Dead Rise

 

Thursday

ORLANDO REGION

 

T-4

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
17	543	2471	21.9%

^{*Numbers taken as of 3:00pm EST}

 

*0 New Showings Added Today 

*13 Seats Sold Today

 

Comps: 

Renfield T-4 (1.853x) ~$1.67M THUR 

The Pope's Exorcist T-0 (2.056x) ~$1.75M THUR 

 

Upping my prediction to $1.5M-$2M THUR

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, Sckathian said:

Sorry if it has been asked, do we have a good example of a film which rose quite sharply after its previews/reviews after middling tracking? Preferably a franchise film but just interested if anyone has one off hand.

Mario kind of blew up. 2 weeks into tracking many thought $125M 5 day was a good landing spot...Then it blew up in the last week to $200M 5 day

[Tinalera]

Posted for the sake of thinking of its future box office-Disney adds a massive amount of time to Little Mermaid Remake.

https://www.cbr.com/the-little-mermaid-runtime-disney/

 

2 hours and 15 minutes, original was 1 hour 27. I would have to think thats going to eat up time between films. (And thats just film adding ads/closing credits ect easily pushing a 2 and a half hour plus window)

Edited April 16, 2023 by Tinalera

[Firepower]

20 hours ago, CJohn said:

Quantumania kinda feels like it killed all the hype around superhero movies. Its crazy how it feels so different after it.

We witnessed a real genre killer, a historic moment.

[Eric the Minion]

On 4/15/2023 at 2:29 PM, Count Eric said:

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-20 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	221	2903	39919	7.27%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 62

 

Comp - T-20

1.976x of Black Widow (26.08M)

2.542x of Eternals (24.15M)

0.334x of Doctor Strange 2 (12.02M)

0.633x of Thor 4 (18.35M)

0.473x of Black Panther 2 (13.25M)

0.792x of Ant-Man 3 (13.85M)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-19 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	221	2956	39919	7.40%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 53

 

Comp - T-19

1.961x of Black Widow (25.89M)

2.463x of Eternals (23.4M)

0.335x of Doctor Strange 2 (12.07M)

0.630x of Thor 4 (18.28M)

0.478x of Black Panther 2 (13.38M)

0.787x of Ant-Man 3 (13.77M)

[Eric the Minion]

On 4/15/2023 at 2:34 PM, Count Eric said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-34 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	432	17734	2.44%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

 

Comp - T-34

0.415x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.47M)

3.600x of Nope (23.04M)

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-33 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	442	17734	2.49%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 10

 

Comp - T-33

0.401x of Jurassic World: Dominion (7.23M)

3.593x of Nope (23M)

[CJohn]

I still think GotG3 will open with 130M+. There is no reason for people to rush buying tickets. If reviews are great, people will show up. Marvel and Disney are hammering down hard the fact that its the last one in the marketing.

[ThatWaluigiDude]

Honestly Disney did a pretty bad job the last 10 years at setting up new reliable franchises, while tossing aside any possible mid-budget project. If we are starting to see an era where Marvel, live action remakes and their animations are not sure hits anymore, this could really mean trouble for them in the future.

[grey ghost]

6 hours ago, Firepower said:

We witnessed a real genre killer, a historic moment.

 

It was the straw that broke the camel's back.

 

But phase 4 was full of subpar movies.

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

Honestly Disney did a pretty bad job the last 10 years at setting up new reliable franchises, while tossing aside any possible mid-budget project. If we are starting to see an era where Marvel, live action remakes and their animations are not sure hits anymore, this could really mean trouble for them in the future.

Eh, they've gone through rough eras before and have ultimately pulled through time and time again in the past (see: almost the entirety of the 80s and Disney Animation during the 2000s).

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-33 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	27086	27744	658	2.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

14

 

T-34 Comp:

%

Sold T-33

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

JWD

48.31

42

1362

0/168

22312/23674

5.75%

33839

1.94%

8.70m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     100/10146  [0.99% sold]
Matinee:     14/3533  [0.40% | 2.13% of all tickets sold]

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-32 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	27083	27744	661	2.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

3

 

T-32 Comp:

%

Sold T-32

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

JWD

46.91

47

1409

0/168

22263/23672

5.95%

33839

1.95%

8.44m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     100/10146  [0.99% sold]
Matinee:     14/3533  [0.40% | 2.12% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-19 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	206	26377	29647	3270	11.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

87

 

T-19 Comps:

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	34.57		193	9459		0/329	31449/40908	23.12%		21117	15.49%		12.45m
L&T	57.57		155	5680		0/228	25920/31600	17.97%		16962	19.28%		16.70m
BP2	51.79		102	6314		1/294	30708/37022	17.05%		16800	19.46%		14.50m
AM3	78.38		41	4172		0/235	28384/32556	12.81%		10475	31.22%		13.72m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      589/11054  [5.33% sold]
Matinee:      97/3555  [2.73% | 2.97% of all tickets sold]
3D:            360/5501  [6.54% | 11.01% of all tickets sold]

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	206	26287	29647	3360	11.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

90

 

T-18 Comps:

	%		Sold T-18	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	34.87		176	9635		0/329	31273/40908	23.55%		21117	15.91%		12.55m
L&T	57.18		196	5876		0/228	25724/31600	18.59%		16962	19.81%		16.58m
BP2	52.27		114	6428		1/294	30596/37024	17.36%		16800	20.00%		14.64m
AM3	78.30		119	4291		0/235	28265/32556	13.18%		10475	32.08%		13.70m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      614/11054  [5.55% sold]
Matinee:    102/3555  [2.87% | 3.04% of all tickets sold]
3D:             375/5501  [6.82% | 11.16% of all tickets sold]