The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I mean sure, but so are Star Wars movies. aren't they same audience?

This is not Sci-fi despite Indy doing the impossible. SW could turn off folks not interested in inter galactic adventures. Even Indy 4 back in 2008 was not frontloaded. I remember when 25m thursday estimates came in(full day), we thought its going to be a disaster. But weekend really picked up and it finished above 150m over 5 days. 

 

Star Wars have always skewed midnights/previews. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I mean sure, but so are Star Wars movies. aren't they same audience?

Simple, SW has a huge and rabid fanbase while Indy is GA (which I think will actually hurt this one, as GA appeal is more fickle and harder to maintain across many years)

[keysersoze123]

4 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Only 41.07% Awareness for MI:DR? How come so low? They really botched the marketing with the late release of the new trailer

I think Quorum is highly suspect. I would ignore it. Just wait for Industry tracking in 2-3 weeks which is based on NRG metrics. That will give better picture. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Slow start for Indy in MiniTC2, one-third Spider Verse, somewhat better than Transformers.

[Deep Wang]

I checked my theater for showtimes and just to see how it was looking and like every dolby show was sold out and I was like, yo wtf.  Sent a screenshot to my old boss and he said, "yeah, that's not right, show's are getting locked out randomly.

 

It looks like they've been fixed now, but just a warning for anyone doing tracking in case they see something similar lol.

[kayumanggi]

 

[CJohn]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Slow start for Indy in MiniTC2, one-third Spider Verse, somewhat better than Transformers.

Reviews killed it. Who approved the movie to be shown at Cannes 45 days before release needs to be fired.

[Firepower]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I mean sure, but so are Star Wars movies. aren't they same audience?

Star Wars are extremely fan-driven.

[GOGODanca]

21 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Slow start for Indy in MiniTC2, one-third Spider Verse, somewhat better than Transformers.

How does it compare to TGM OD sales?

[YM!]

1 minute ago, GOGODanca said:

How does it compare to TGM OD sales?

1/5 of TGM apparently.

[Porthos]

The natural comps for Indy 5 will be the Jurassic World films.  Especially JWD since that also had a long pre-sale window.

[Issac Newton]

Mark your calendar as Tracking Team need to track another 3 Fast Movies (Fast X II, Fast X III &Fast Spin-off)

 

[el sid]

Pretty worthless, my counting last week. I know that happens but it's still annoying.

TLM counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 362 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 233 (17 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 83 (12 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 41 (8 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 26 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 270 (16 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 490 (17 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 1.505.
Comps (I did not count Aladin; all four films counted on the same day = Monday of the release week): Dolittle (21.8M OW) had 143 sold tickets,
JC (35M) had 357,
Sonic 2 (72.1M) had 791
and Minions: The Rise of Gru (107M) had 907 sold tickets.
Frozen II (130.3M) had on Wednesday of the release week 3.463 sold tickets. TLM should reach more than 2k sold tickets till then which would be ca. 3/5 and 78M plus that it is a well known brand but no sequel. If it reaches - with good reviews – more, maybe 2.5k tickets, the better.
Lightyear (50.6M) had also on Wednesday 1.235 sold tickets.

Overall very uneven from the comps but most point to more than 100M OW at the moment. Of course it needs good reviews and decent jumps over the next few days.
On the one hand it's an original film. OTOH who doesn't know the little mermaid? So it's something in-between I think.

Edited May 22, 2023 by el sid

[Flopped]

I know others have asked but any news on how Boogeyman is doing? 

[Spidey Freak]

1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:

Mark your calendar as Tracking Team need to track another 3 Fast Movies (Fast X II, Fast X III &Fast Spin-off)

 

 

When the female-led spin-off is titled Fast XX

Edited May 22, 2023 by Spidey Freak

[M37]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

The natural comps for Indy 5 will be the Jurassic World films.  Especially JWD since that also had a long pre-sale window.

Mermaid, Spider-Verse, Indy ... has JWD become the default comp for everything now? lol

 

In all seriousness, I would suggest - particularly from T-21 and on - leaning more on the older/mature audience films like TGM, NTTD, even Avatar 2 (ATP adjusted), than any of the younger skewing/GA films in the JWD/BA grouping (though JW4 may be OK). Would expect both the daily flow of sales and final week trajectory to behave more similarly

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, M37 said:

Mermaid, Spider-Verse, Indy ... has JWD become the default comp for everything now? lol

 

In all seriousness, I would suggest - particularly from T-21 and on - leaning more on the older/mature audience films like TGM, NTTD, even Avatar 2 (ATP adjusted), than any of the younger skewing/GA films in the JWD/BA grouping (though JW4 may be OK). Would expect both the daily flow of sales and final week trajectory to behave more similarly

 

TGM is a problematic comp for Sacramento, however.  Denver as well for probably similar reasons.

 

(the more I think about it, the more I think the historical military base tie in was the reason it had such a massive start both here and in Denver)

 

EDIT:::

 

I would also add that NTTD only had 21 days of pre-sales (starting at T-20), so any comps against a film that'll be nearly double that (39 days of pre-sales, if my math is right) is also gonna have... difficulty.  Was already toying with A2 as a comp though, as well as NTTD for first day sales.

Edited May 22, 2023 by Porthos

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, M37 said:

Mermaid, Spider-Verse, Indy ... has JWD become the default comp for everything now? lol

 

In all seriousness, I would suggest - particularly from T-21 and on - leaning more on the older/mature audience films like TGM, NTTD, even Avatar 2 (ATP adjusted), than any of the younger skewing/GA films in the JWD/BA grouping (though JW4 may be OK). Would expect both the daily flow of sales and final week trajectory to behave more similarly

Any movie with bad presales and big OW expectations. Compare it with only non family flick that was so backloaded :-) 

[Cooper Legion]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Any movie with bad presales and big OW expectations. Compare it with only non family flick that was so backloaded 🙂

I mean… yeah 😛 

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Any movie with bad presales and big OW expectations. Compare it with only non family flick that was so backloaded 🙂

 

The reason I use JWD for a lot of things is because GA friendly films like action-adventure films tend not to be particularly front loaded when compared to truly frontloaded pre-sale properties.

 

Back in the day, JW:FK was my go-to/anchor comp for a long list of action-adventure GA-skewing films.  

 

Biggest problem with JWD as a comp is that it had 43 days of pre-sales (for the millionth time WHHHHHHY), and while that's usually irritating, it's actually not that bad for a film like Indy 5 which'll have 39 days of pre-sales.