The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, GOGODanca said:

Guardians 3 was tracking for 130m  weeks out according to the trades and it fell short despite good reception

Oh. I thought Shawn and Co. had it a lot closer to 100M OW DOM and had adjusted down considerably by the time it was 2 weeks out. I thought the very early tracking before presales was 130M+ though.

[21C]

I still wonder when would they increase. I doubt the fan-screenings happening on the 12th will bring a very different crowd than the ones that already went on the ones that happened this week. Word of mouth is a factor, yes, but in this movie it's a weird case because social media reactions have been out for a while so I don't think it'll have an impact on pre-sales. Maaaybe once the movie opens on the 16th it could cause an increase on Sunday like what GoTG experienced but... how high is that ceiling, exactly?  So far, Keaton (the main hook of the film) hasn't moved the needle much. 

Edited May 25, 2023 by 21C

[tonytr87]

Don't underestimate the incoming reboot factor as a deterrent for some audiences. Also the fact that Justice League (the ONLY DCEU movie featuring Flash) was six years ago and was terrible. Most people haven't seen the better director's cut and think of Ezra's Flash as the fast dude from that terrible movie years ago. 

[jedijake]

19 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

TLM

$11 m seems to low.

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, 21C said:

I still wonder when would they increase. I doubt the fan-screenings happening on the 12th will bring a very different crowd than the ones that already went on the ones that happened this week. Word of mouth is a factor, yes, but in this movie it's a weird case because social media reactions have been out for a while so I don't think it'll have an impact on pre-sales. Maaaybe once the movie opens on the 16th it could cause an increase on Sunday like what GoTG experienced but... how high is that ceiling, exactly?  So far, Keaton (the main hook of the film) hasn't moved the needle much. 

 

Instead of having a spike it's possible/plausible to have a rolling wave of increased interest.  Something similar to TLM which had an abnormally high middle run thanks to a super early embargo lift/premiere but not quite as high end period.

 

Could also be something like LTBC where there was a critical mass/threshold surpassed in the final days where there was enough people out there who had seen it to create buzz on its own.

 

Or it could just have random spikes and valleys where it'll be next to impossible to separate the signal from the noise.

 

Or when the "real" premiere happens (as I understand it, it's still the CinemaCon Cut making its way around).

 

Or it could get lost in all the noise (could, not will).

 

Along that last point, I'm... reluctant to draw too many conclusions about The Flash's prospects while it isn't the center of attention.   Does raise the question "when will it become the center of attention", which is what I think you're really getting at, but I ain't an Oracle.

 

Will say I do think that the buzz surrounding the film's quality is a major (perhaps sole) reason why so many people, myself included, are still willing to give it the benefit of the doubt/prove itself in the marketplace.  

 

[poweranimals]

2 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

Don't underestimate the incoming reboot factor as a deterrent for some audiences. Also the fact that Justice League (the ONLY DCEU movie featuring Flash) was six years ago and was terrible. Most people haven't seen the better director's cut and think of Ezra's Flash as the fast dude from that terrible movie years ago. 

You would think the glowing reviews might help though.

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Little Mermaid Alamo Drafthouse

T-0 Wednesday	3 Showings	315	+8	321
T-1 Thursday	256 Showings	8773	+1301	34972	ATP:	16.19

0.865	Avatar 2 T-1	14.70M
0.797	JW Dominion T-1	14.35M
2.068	Ghostbusters T-1	9.31M

 

T-2 Friday

427 Showings

13679

+2155

56154

ATP:

15.43

0.967	Avatar 2 T-2	35.00M
0.948	JW Dominion T-2	39.44M
2.846	Ghostbusters T-2	34.57M

 

T-3 Saturday

449 Showings

12192

+1607

58274

0.812	Avatar 2 T-3	36.01M
0.903	JW Dominion T-3	42.32M
2.484	Ghostbusters T-3	40.83M

 

T-4 Sunday

418 Showings

8210

+965

54999

0.852	Avatar 2 T-4	31.17M
1.029	JW Dominion T-4	39.71M
3.464	Ghostbusters T-4	37.83M

The Little Mermaid Alamo Drafthouse

T-0 Wednesday	3 Showings	315		321
T-0 Thursday	248 Showings	11287	+2514	33411	ATP:	15.84

0.897	Avatar 2 T-0	15.24M
0.752	JW Dominion T-0	13.53M
2.334	Ghostbusters T-0	10.50M

 

T-1 Friday

432 Showings

16382

+2703

56639

ATP:

15.34

0.995	Avatar 2 T-1	36.02M
0.922	JW Dominion T-1	38.36M
2.734	Ghostbusters T-1	33.22M

 

T-2 Saturday

452 Showings

14123

+1931

58412

0.823	Avatar 2 T-2	36.47M
0.866	JW Dominion T-2	40.59M
2.447	Ghostbusters T-2	40.23M

 

T-3 Sunday

420 Showings

9473

+1263

55097

0.871	Avatar 2 T-3	31.83M
0.985	JW Dominion T-3	38.02M
3.358	Ghostbusters T-3	36.67M

[Wotad]

6 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

You would think the glowing reviews might help though.

They need to release those views quite quickly then. 

[joselowe]

41 minutes ago, PrinceRico said:

Yeah The Flash is not looking good.

I think it’s a combo of the studio (Warner Discovery is a disaster, despite people hopefulness) and real promo is going to be very difficult considering the scandals around Ezra Miller. This film is depending on fanboys at this point but the promo push is going to be a tough sell to people outside the fandom of The Flash.

[DAJK]

Crazy looking back and seeing how massive Beauty and the Beast was. Like wow, Disney’s marketing machine was on fire for that film. 

[Inceptionzq]

22 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Little Mermaid Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

286

3159

9.05%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

277

1901

14.57%

 

Wednesday: 484(+116)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1942	283	25776	7.53%	13	163

 

0.410x Avatar 2 T-1 (6.98M)

0.481x JW Dominion T-1 (8.66M)

1.76x Ghostbusters T-1 (7.91M)

1.02x Shang-Chi T-1 (8.98M)

The Little Mermaid Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

451

3155

14.29%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

401

1901

21.09%

 

Wednesday: 496(+12)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
3079	1110	25964	11.70%	13	165

 

0.471x Avatar 2 T-0 (8.01M)

0.500x JW Dominion T-0 (9.00M)

1.77x Ghostbusters T-0 (7.97M)

0.886x Shang-Chi T-0 (7.80M)

 

Denver seems to be underperforming and Drafthouse overperforming. If I average out the same comps between the two chains, after adjusting Ghostbusters up by 15%, I get 11.17M. It'll be way more dumb luck than anything if it gets close, but I'll roll with it.

[John Marston]

Flash hype always seemed manufactured (Keaton’s Batman? Supergirl? Does anyone really care?) and people are putting their heads in the sand when it comes to the lead. Not only is the lead brimming with controversy but is miscast and is no leading man

[GOGODanca]

Do we have any info on when the flash premiere is?

[Eric the Minion]

Moderation

 

The Monday Morning Quarterbacking for The Flash has started to become very tiresome and is derailing the thread's intentions. I think it's time to take this conversation to The Flash thread.

[filmlover]

Hollywood Reporter confirms the tracking: $70M for The Flash, $40M for Elemental.

 

Ezra Miller’s ‘The Flash,’ ‘Elemental’ Encounter Box Office Headwinds – The Hollywood Reporter

[M37]

33 minutes ago, jedijake said:

$11 m seems to low.

That value is at the lower end of the range where tracking has been pointing too, but not falling out of it. We’ll see what later updates bring, but to get to $12M, going to need a bit more from those

 

There may also be variation in markets depending on where schools are out on Friday vs not

[filmlover]

Both June 16 openers are tracking at where I've had the feeling they would land for a while so...I dunno.

 

[keysersoze123]

 

17 minutes ago, Prince Eric said:

Moderation

 

The Monday Morning Quarterbacking for The Flash has started to become very tiresome and is derailing the thread's intentions. I think it's time to take this conversation to The Flash thread.

Thank you. Some posters who contribute nothing to this thread but spew constant garbage on movies. I would highly encourage normal folks to avoid discussions with these negative nancies. 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Across the Spider-Verse Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

452

3200

14.13%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

352

1875

18.77%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2094	108	22850	9.16%	13	123

 

0.545x Ant-Man 3 T-8 (9.54M)

0.371x Thor L&T T-8 (10.76M)

1.22x Eternals T-8 (11.56M)

Across the Spider-Verse Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

485

3200

15.16%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

373

1875

19.89%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
2254	160	22850	9.86%	13	123

 

0.383x Thor L&T T-7 (11.10M)

0.524x Batman T-7 (11.31M)

1.26x Eternals T-7 (12.00M)

[Eric the Minion]

20 hours ago, Prince Eric said:

The Little Mermaid Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	183	4243	31870	13.31%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 556

 

Comp - T-1

1.750x of Sonic 2 (10.94M)

1.019x of Jurassic World 3 (18.34M)

1.832x of Black Adam (13.92M)

0.932x of Avatar 2 (15.85M)

0.464x of Mario (14.7M)

The Little Mermaid Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	183	5982	31870	18.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 1,739

 

Comp

1.769x of Sonic 2 (11.05M)

0.951x of Jurassic World 3 (17.12M)

1.694x of Black Adam (12.87M)

0.986x of Avatar 2 (16.76M)

 

Sonic 2 has always felt like the best comp for this movie IMO, and that indicates the same 11M everybody else is gunning towards. So let's just use that for here.