The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[GOGODanca]

if we comp flash only to the Batman, BA and Shazam, how does growth rate compare?

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, killbill said:

Comps say $16M from the 2 DC movies. 

Yeah that is why I’m helping you out by letting you know how incredibly misleading the straight comps on those 2 dc movies are given the size and pace mismatch

[M37]

16 minutes ago, killbill said:

So about $16M preview for Flash 

Shazam is likely a poor comp, with fans checked out, playing almost entirely to GA, much higher growth rate down the stretch. Black Adam, while a DC film, was just as much a Rock action vehicle, which is going to play very well in this tracking sample 

 

Can’t just cherry pick the comps you like and ignore the ones you don’t … at minimum you average them, and in this case would I lean more towards the ATSV range, closer to ~$11M, but with some hope it ends up higher. Just not at $16M

[Legion Again]

The size adjusted avg from those 4 minitc2 comps is 11.1M this update

 

… down from 11.7 3 days prior. Optimistically perhaps it will stay steady from here, but more likely continue trending down an uncertain amount.

[AJG]

When did shit get this bad?

 

6/16/2023	Elemental	$31,000,000 – $41,000,000		$98,000,000 – $167,000,000		Disney / Pixar
6/16/2023	The Flash	$72,000,000 – $105,000,000	-20%	$176,000,000 – $282,000,000	-20%	Warner Bros. Pictures

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, AJG said:

When did shit get this bad?

 

6/16/2023	Elemental	$31,000,000 – $41,000,000		$98,000,000 – $167,000,000		Disney / Pixar
6/16/2023	The Flash	$72,000,000 – $105,000,000	-20%	$176,000,000 – $282,000,000	-20%	Warner Bros. Pictures

If you’re referring to the flash range you might be in for a trip if you read the last few pages 

[charlie Jatinder]

27 minutes ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

Also Flash a comic book movie vs Transformers which is more of a general audience franchise.

A comic book movie could be on gain as well, there is no rule against it.

[filmlover]

Long Range Box Office Forecast & 2023’s Upcoming Calendar
(as of 6/9/23)

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Low/High Range	Pinpoint % Chg from Last Week	Distributor
6/16/2023	Asteroid City (Limited)					Focus Features
6/16/2023	The Blackening	$8,000,000 – $13,000,000		$20,000,000 – $43,000,000		Lionsgate
6/16/2023	Elemental	$31,000,000 – $41,000,000		$98,000,000 – $167,000,000		Disney / Pixar
6/16/2023	The Flash	$72,000,000 – $105,000,000	-20%	$176,000,000 – $282,000,000	-20%	Warner Bros. Pictures
6/23/2023	Asteroid City (Expansion)					Focus Features
6/23/2023	No Hard Feelings	$14,000,000 – $22,000,000		$50,000,000 – $76,000,000		Sony Pictures
6/23/2023	Past Lives (Wide Expansion)					A24
6/30/2023	Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny	$76,000,000 – $105,000,000	-17%	$211,000,000 – $359,000,000	-17%	Disney / Lucasfilm
6/30/2023	Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken	$13,000,000 – $18,000,000		$38,000,000 – $66,000,000		Universal / DreamWorks Animation
7/7/2023	Insidious: The Red Door	$25,000,000 – $33,000,000		$56,000,000 – $76,000,000		Sony Pictures / Screen Gems
7/7/2023	Joy Ride	$12,000,000 – $17,000,000		$40,000,000 – $64,000,000		Lionsgate

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-insidious-the-red-door-and-joy-ride/

 

Don't think the entire chart was posted.

[alexandr]

$8.8M preview actuals for ROTB.

 

Edit: $1.2M Wednesday, $7.6M Thursday per Deadline.

Edited June 9, 2023 by alexandr
Add info

[M37]

8 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

if we comp flash only to the Batman, BA and Shazam, how does growth rate compare?

Major Goldilocks problem there, where Batman was way too big (closer to MCU),  Shazam too small (finished more like Sonic 2), leaving only Black Adam from the DC bunch as a possible comp

 

But from the Sacto data set, here's a broad comp list for pace comparisons at T-7

• Transformers +57%*
• Scream VI +54%
• Black Adam +53%
• ATSV +53%
• JW4 +52%
• JWD +50%
• Fast X +41% (very long pre-sale period)

Most of these films saw tickets increase by another 200-225% to the final count, except for JWD (dragged lower by poor reviews), and Transformers which blew up (*but presence of EA shows makes it weird).

 

Meanwhile: Flash +41% (with other samples in similar range) and that's with a review "bump". There's a very real chance sales just never pick back up the pace and preview ends up not too far from where Transformers just finished

[YSLDC]

Maybe after Transformers opening weekend, the market will be clear, WB will start heavy marketing, and Flash will start accelerating. Let's hope

[JpTransformers]

 

[Shawn Robbins]

Transformers coming in a little above expectations certainly underscores the caution of worrying too much about Flash, Indy, or anything else with walk-up potential too far out this summer. Not to say there aren't valid concerns on those (there are), but props to everyone keeping a level head on projecting some of these sales with a crowded market in mind. Summer is a different... beast.

[keysersoze123]

Flash should have reasonably better walkups than what the forum expects. Keaton targets older audience who will just come in. And its summer and so walkups generally will be better than otherwise. Plus its father's day weekend and it will have better than norm IM as well. Let us see how final week goes. 

[keysersoze123]

10 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Transformers MTC1 Previews Final - 130297/697006 2264718.05 4009 shows +63243

 

Really strong walkups today. I am thinking ~8.8m including early shows. I still dont have final MTC2 data but walkups there are even better than MTC1.

This makes me think its walkups over the weekend will be really good and get close to 60m OW.  

[Relevation]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

Elemental T-7 Forecast

 

Admittedly, not a whole of data on this this one, and what numbers are available are pretty low, so we're in sub-$30M bomb territory, right? Well ... with the caveat that true family movies are the most difficult to extrapolate precisely given small baseline sales and massively high late growth rate, it doesn't look quite that bad to me

 

The pace of sales heading into the final week for Sacto is just a shade below where Minions landed at this same checkpoint last summer, and would therefore would lean on that comp moving forward. If it were to hold, would expect to see 500+ sales at T-4 checkpoint (if you're able to grab that one) and finishing at 7-8x current sales total.

 

 

Not surprising given proximity to Disney, but a higher volume of early sales and correspondingly lower pace for this market, but increasing to 3-4x current value by final count is a good benchmark, which would be 30-40% of TLM final. Would pencil in 850-900+ tickets sold by T-4 to stay in that range of pace

 

@keysersoze123 are you able to run an MTC1 pull for Elemental? Would like to have that value in hand to better track big picture growth rate

 

Not going to do a full chart, but something in the range of $3M-$4M+ previews, with a standard family film summer IM of ~10x seems right ... or pretty much right in line with the $31-$41M OW forecast from PBO. However, will be curious to see if the metro over-index (or more accurately, smaller market under-index) that helped to drag down totals for both TLM and Lightyear continues with this film

I agree with your projected preview range, but Minions had a 10x internal multi despite being a franchise film and having the Gentleminions trend surging sales right at the end. I feel like this should result in Elemental being less preview heavy in comparison. Obviously it won’t be on the level of Inside Out and the Bad Guys both at 20x+ but I honestly think it I could be like 14x potentially? That gives me a… weirdly high weekend of $42M to $56M. Lemme know if I’m off-base here but I just think it’ll be really walk-up heavy even more so than the average animated family sequel.

[TheFlatLannister]

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

OPPENHEIMER

 

THURSDAY previews

 

T-41 *First 24 hours

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
70	616	12741	4.8%

^{*Numbers taken as of 10:00am EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

Edited June 9, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[Rocketracoon]

9 minutes ago, Relevation said:

I agree with your projected preview range, but Minions had a 10x internal multi despite being a franchise film and having the Gentleminions trend surging sales right at the end. I feel like this should result in Elemental being less preview heavy in comparison. Obviously it won’t be on the level of Inside Out and the Bad Guys both at 20x+ but I honestly think it I could be like 14x potentially? That gives me a… weirdly high weekend of $42M to $56M. Lemme know if I’m off-base here but I just think it’ll be really walk-up heavy even more so than the average animated family sequel.

 

 

Would Flash releasing on the same week affect walk-ups?

 

[M37]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Flash should have reasonably better walkups than what the forum expects. Keaton targets older audience who will just come in. And its summer and so walkups generally will be better than otherwise. Plus its father's day weekend and it will have better than norm IM as well. Let us see how final week goes. 

Pace has been trending down, lagging behind similar titles, but agree its too soon to go full doom and gloom. But ask me again a T-4 though ... (Do agree on IM not sinking too low, for a few reasons)

 

However, older audiences in general buy tickets earlier than their younger counterparts, lower walk-up rate (look at JW4 final few days shading below pace of similar titles for example), so don't think Keaton's presence is going to help much

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, Rocketracoon said:

 

 

Would Flash releasing on the same week affect walk-ups?

 

No, Elemental is counter-programming, just like Inside Out and Jurassic World