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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXR & Friends,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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excel1 Blockbuster

excel1

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bobzaruni said:

Thursday not OW

 

LOL I know, Bobzaruni. I was merely highlighting that they cherry picked by answering w/ just the preview # as opposed the entire OW which would be much more favorable. 

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

LOL I know, Bobzaruni. I was merely highlighting that they cherry picked by answering w/ just the preview # as opposed the entire OW which would be much more favorable. 

I guess if mid-60s counts as favorable to you lol. JWD had already established its backloaded sales pattern relative to CBMs at this point, it didn't exactly come as a surprise. Flash following those walkup trends wouldn't work some type of miracle.

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Cmasterclay Global Phenomenon

Cmasterclay

Posted
Posted

No Way Home stole alot of thunder from the Flash and I think that people underestimated how mainstream the Miller stuff had gone. The combination of multiverse fatigue + DC dying on the vine + toxic star is too much.

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John Marston Global Phenomenon

John Marston

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

No Way Home stole alot of thunder from the Flash and I think that people underestimated how mainstream the Miller stuff had gone. The combination of multiverse fatigue + DC dying on the vine + toxic star is too much.


 

 

it is Also not really a NWH type film. It’s not like we have Keaton’s Batman interacting with Bale’s Batman or something like that. 

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Apologies for breaking into all of this Flash OW discussion for an actual Tracking question,  but can anyone in other markets confirm for me that Regal does NOT have access to the Walmart+ See It First showings for MI7?

 

It's not playing at any of my local Regals and it's not listed on the corp site as near as I can tell.  But sometimes searches can be a bit wonky and, IMO at least, its corp site isn't the best for searching.

 

(in fact right now I only have it at my local Cinemarks [though I do know it's also at AMC which isn't in my coverage area)

I haven’t seen it on sale anywhere except on Atom Tickets. Some corp websites do have links to a page of it, but no showings up even though the showings are on Atom. So this must be a deal between Walmart and Atom

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el sid Box Office Gold

el sid

Posted
Posted

The Flash, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 578 (11 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 423 (20 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 46 (15 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 15 (7 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 75 (12 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 456 (18 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 908 (20 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 2.501.

Comps (great ;). Normally I have no good Tuesday comps but good ones for Wednesday. This time it's the other way around. But in this case, it doesn't matter):  

Eternals (21.2M true Friday/ 71.3M OW) had on the same day, Wednesday of the release week, 3.613 sold tickets = ca. 15M OD/50M OW but hopefully the walk-ups for The Flash will be better or the jump till tomorrow. Otherwise...
Thor 4 (40.5M/144.2M) had on Thursday = 1 day later 6.946 sold tickets.
GotG3 (30.7M/118.4M) had also on Thursday of the release week 4.484 sold tickets.
And SC (20.8M/75.4M) had 2.672 sold tickets on Tuesday and 3.617 on Thursday = ca. 3.100 sold tickets on Wednesday.

I never wish to bring or add doom & gloom but I have to admit that's not encouraging. It's Wednesday, still some time to recover but I also would not predict 70M OW as it looks today.

 

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katnisscinnaplex Box Office Gold

katnisscinnaplex

Posted
Posted
On 6/13/2023 at 11:19 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Thought it was interesting that @M37 was talking about PSM since that's partially what my new model is looking at.  I threw a few charts together for the Flash & comps to compare PSM at different preview numbers.  Projected is based on growth rate.

 

  XCBYyS8.png

 

vmFWfE9.png

K7uEiiB.png

9JANME7.png

 

Based on the shape so far, I could see this playing out like the lower comps (Avatar 2, Eternals, Batman) and coming in between 7.5 and 8m.  I'm not saying this will happen, but that the trends in my regions are pointing in that direction.

There was a positive turn today in presales for my region.  A nice jump in sales started a downturn in PSM which wasn't seen as much with the comps at the lower end.  In fact, the curve is now most similar to Shang-Chi (yellow) as seen in the 10m preview chart below.  I'm including the 8m chart as well to show the difference the shape is at that preview number.  Hopefully a good trend that prove out tomorrow morning. 

 

 TgjCrD8.png

 

 

 

C7aOwZ2.png

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Shawn Robbins Global Phenomenon

Shawn Robbins

Posted
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Posted
1 hour ago, 21C said:

I mean, yeah, but as I said before two things weren't the only unusual factors working against TSS. And The Flash, unlike TSS, does have some unusual factors that should be working in its favor.  If anything, maaaaybe Dark Phoenix would be a better comparison? (Hell, if this movie didn't have Batman in it, its totally conceivably it'd have opened to Dark Phoenix numbers)

We can point to a number of parallel movies that have some sort of relevance. I was simply replying to the three movies @Into the Legion-Verse called out in his prior post, which all happened to be DC.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

I haven’t seen it on sale anywhere except on Atom Tickets. Some corp websites do have links to a page of it, but no showings up even though the showings are on Atom. So this must be a deal between Walmart and Atom

 

Same thing here, actually.  Which is... annoying as I am currently being reminded how much I dislike the Atom interface when it comes to tracking.

 

(only four theaters locally at the moment, which is something, but I can already tell this is gonna be a GIGANTIC PITA)

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Maggie Box Office Gold

Maggie

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Same thing here, actually.  Which is... annoying as I am currently being reminded how much I dislike the Atom interface when it comes to tracking.

 

(only four theaters locally at the moment, which is something, but I can already tell this is gonna be a GIGANTIC PITA)

nevermind. i figured it our lol

Edited by Maggie
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TheFlatLannister Box Office Gold

TheFlatLannister

Posted
Posted
On 6/13/2023 at 3:32 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

No Hard Feelings

 

THURSDAY

 

T-9

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

38

78

4487

1.7%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Unofficial comp ~$700K

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

No Hard Feelings

 

THURSDAY

 

T-8

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

38

96

4487

2.1%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

18

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Unofficial comp ~$700K

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TheFlatLannister Box Office Gold

TheFlatLannister

Posted
Posted
On 6/13/2023 at 3:36 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

ASTEROID CITY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-9

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

21

188

2455

7.7%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

N/A

 

SELLOUTS

0

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

ASTEROID CITY

 

THURSDAY

 

T-8

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

21

204

2455

8.3%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

16

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

Posted
Posted (edited)

MI7 MTC1

Monday Early shows - 9149/53358 201153.31 217 shows 

previews(tuesday) - 12545/548109 243115.81 2679 shows 

 

its under a day but nothing crazy so far. I would not call it uber blockbuster level or anything. That said this may not behave like one. With a shorter PS cycle this could ramp faster. 

 

Edit: Added early shows data. It definitely looks lot better with early shows added. @Jayhawk the Hutt

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Jayhawk the Hutt Global Phenomenon

Jayhawk the Hutt

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MI7 MTC1 previews - 12545/548109 243115.81 2679 shows 

 

its under a day but nothing crazy so far. I would not call it uber blockbuster level or anything. That said this may not behave like one. With a shorter PS cycle this could ramp faster. 

Do this include Early Access?

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