The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[emoviefan]

11 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
M:I 7	T-18	Jax	6	69	3	134	10,964	1.22%
		Phx	6	58	10	90	11,155	0.81%
		Ral	8	54	1	130	8,344	1.56%
	Total		20	181	14	354	30,463	1.16%
M:I 7 (EA)	T-16	Jax	3	3	0	33	418	7.89%
		Phx	2	2	0	2	363	0.55%
		Ral	1	1	2	15	111	13.51%
	Total		6	6	2	50	892	5.61%
	T-17	Jax	5	7	6	105	1,407	7.46%
		Phx	1	1	0	35	410	8.54%
		Ral	2	2	16	50	412	12.14%
	Total		8	10	22	190	2,229	8.52%

 

M:I 7 (Total) T-18 comps

 - JW3 Total - .262x (4.71m)

 - Shazam 2 - missed

 - Black Widow - .382x (5.05m)

 - Avatar 2 - missed

 - F9 - 1.5x (10.62m)

 - John Wick 4 - 1.1x (9.81m)

 - Top Gun Total - missed

 

Size adjusted average - 8.87m

That is an improvement from yesterday. at least. 

[filmlover]

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I absolutely hate to doom post(there is too much of it on this forum). But we just had a mega disaster last week which is getting flushed out. This weekend we are seeing a lull after weeks of 50m+ openers. Spiderverse will probably win and we wont see a 20m weekend BO for any movie !!! 

 

Next week Indy is looking dire. Last week Flash did 3.6K on T-7(which was abject)/ Indy is doing 1917 by my check !! Overall its under 2/3rd of flash and daily pace is worse. Friday is better with it being low 70s% of Flash and pace is similar to Previews. I am sure it wont finish as badly as Flash for sure. Still cannot see more than 8m previews and 8x multi at this point. I think Black Adam is best comp. I hope I am wrong. @M37 graphs may show a better numbers. 

 

I am not impressed with MI7 as well with daily pace. I am not convinced with Sunday start with early shows on standard screens. This should have opened this weekend or even alongside Indy to benefit from July 4 holiday. 

 

But I am hopeful for 1-2 punch of B+O. That hopefully does not falter at the finish line as nothing beyond that in the summer looks good to me. Haunted Mansion, Meg 2 etc are not looking to me as domestic breakouts.  

On the contrary, August looking to be as weak as it is should allow these movies to develop strong staying power during the dog days of summer through the early fall when we enter a surprisingly busy September.

[emoviefan]

10 minutes ago, filmlover said:

On the contrary, August looking to be as weak as it is should allow these movies to develop strong staying power during the dog days of summer through the early fall when we enter a surprisingly busy September.

MI movies always have legs and good WOM if received well.Hopefully it can coexist with Oppenheimer since they are both targeting the Old white man demo along with Indy also. 

[M37]

On 6/18/2023 at 12:07 PM, M37 said:

Indiana Jones T-12 Preview Average

 

For now, not including Drafthouse in the average, as every comp for that sample is in double digits, with many close to $20M - clearly running extremely hot

 

Whole lot of mostly straight lines over the last week plus against these comps, which means the pace is matching and therefore is likely to continue to do so. However, neither Flash nor JWD had a great final week, and Wick 4 is rated R, and could see Indy playing better to families and casuals and coming in slightly ahead of where its heading at present

 

All together, sure seems like $8M-$9M previews incoming to me, barring a strong catalyst and finishing kick to made a push for $10M

8 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Next week Indy is looking dire. Last week Flash did 3.6K on T-7(which was abject)/ Indy is doing 1917 by my check !! Overall its under 2/3rd of flash and daily pace is worse. Friday is better with it being low 70s% of Flash and pace is similar to Previews. I am sure it wont finish as badly as Flash for sure. Still cannot see more than 8m previews and 8x multi at this point. I think Black Adam is best comp. I hope I am wrong. @M37 graphs may show a better numbers. 

If you're looking for better numbers ...

 

Indiana Jones & Dial of Destiny T-7 Update

Frankly, not much has changed since last update, with a whole lot of most flat lines, though tilting slightly down so that the average has dipped below $8M

 

The more concerning trend is the pace, or rather lack of it - well below the Flash/ATSV/even JWD range at this checkpoint - and what that could mean for the final week

• Optimistic Scenario - The longer sales window bottomed out the U-curve more, it plays better to casual audiences (maybe families?) aka GA comes home at the end (similar to GOTG3)
• Pessimistic Scenario - The film fails to really connect with younger GA, skews old, and pace continues to limp all the way through the finish

That the Denver and Jax/Ral/Pho markets, usually a good barometer for the breadth of demand, are all comping pretty low is of particular concern

 

As far as potential IM, Friday sales look decent, in that for both MTC1 and Drafthouse the ratio is almost identical to ATSV at similar checkpoints, and given size/presale rate/audience composition differences could see it nudging up over 7x, though doubtful IMO it gets up towards 8x

Overall, that combination generates this forecast, the mid-point of which is a number that's awfully similar to this past weekend...

 

Indiana Jones Forecast Matrix (T-7)		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$6.5	$6.8	$7.1	$7.4	$7.8	$8.1	$8.4	$8.7	$9.0
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	6.20	$40.3	$42.2	$44.2	$46.1	$48.1	$50.0	$51.9	$53.9	$55.8
	6.43	$41.8	$43.8	$45.8	$47.8	$49.8	$51.8	$53.8	$55.8	$57.8
	6.65	$43.2	$45.3	$47.4	$49.5	$51.5	$53.6	$55.7	$57.8	$59.9
	6.88	$44.7	$46.8	$49.0	$51.1	$53.3	$55.4	$57.6	$59.7	$61.9
	7.10	$46.2	$48.4	$50.6	$52.8	$55.0	$57.2	$59.5	$61.7	$63.9
	7.33	$47.6	$49.9	$52.2	$54.5	$56.8	$59.1	$61.3	$63.6	$65.9
	7.55	$49.1	$51.4	$53.8	$56.2	$58.5	$60.9	$63.2	$65.6	$68.0
	7.78	$50.5	$53.0	$55.4	$57.8	$60.3	$62.7	$65.1	$67.5	$70.0
	8.00	$52.0	$54.5	$57.0	$59.5	$62.0	$64.5	$67.0	$69.5	$72.0

 

 

The one bright spot in the tracking is Sacto, which recently has been on the lower end of comps but for this release is mostly leading the charge, so that's the sample I'll be watching most closely: to see if its a bellwether and others catch-up, or is pulling a TGM-lite (over-indexing in early sales) and falls back to the pack as the weak wears on. No pressure @Porthos!

[Tinalera]

Barbie

Thurs July 20 and Fri July 21 (T-28)

Vancouver and Calgary Canada

 

t-28		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	2	10	126	1913	2039	0.0617
	Fri	2	11	202	2432	2634	0.0766
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	11	70	1902	1972	0.0354
	Fri	4	14	128	2458	2586	0.0494

 

 

Don't really have any comps for this far I don't think, certainly no comedy ones-but sales of 3-7 percent almost a month out, yes there  seems to certainly be interest in Barbie this early out, even with Vancouver only having 2 theatres out of my usual 4 for presales so far.

[Eric is Quiet]

Quorum Updates

Asteroid City T-1: 31.21% Awareness

Joy Ride T-15: 25.84%

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem T-41: 41.2%

My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3 T-78: 24.61%

Dumb Money T-92: 12.2%

It Lives Inside T-92: 19.18%

Kraven the Hunter T-106: 19.64%

 

No Hard Feelings T-1: 43.19% Awareness

Final Awareness: 88% chance of 10M, 60% chance of 20M

Original - Low Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 33% chance of 20M

 

Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken T-8: 27.93% Awareness

Final Awareness: 12% chance of 10M

Animation/Family Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

 

Talk to Me T-36: 20.04% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 51% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 67% chance of 10M

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Indiana Jones	T-6	Jax	6	64	33	366	10,205	3.59%
		Phx	6	44	11	218	8,381	2.60%
		Ral	8	60	48	413	8,644	4.78%
	Total		20	168	92	997	27,230	3.66%
Ruby Gillman	T-6	Jax	5	19	10	12	2,145	0.56%
		Phx	6	24	5	9	2,236	0.40%
		Ral	7	27	0	13	2,563	0.51%
	Total		18	70	15	34	6,944	0.49%

 

Ruby Gillman T-6 comps

 - Bad Guys - .548x (631k)

 - Super Pets - .333x (733k)

 - Elemental  .156x (374k)

 - Lyle Lyle - 1.478x (850k)

 - Paws of Fury - .850x (429k)

 - Boss Baby 2 - .872x (1.14m)

 - Encanto - .415x (621k)

 - Peter Rabbit 2 - .791x (712k)

 - Strange World - 1.417x (1.13m)

 

Size adjusted average - 817k

 

Indiana Jones T-6 comps

 - F9 - .957x (6.79m)

 - JW3 - .319x (5.64m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - John Wick 4 - missed

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - Uncharted - 1.878x (6.95m)

 - Transformers (Total) - .813x (7.15m)

 - The Lost City (Total) - 3.612x (11.74m)

 

Size adjusted average - 7.21m

what is JW3? Is it John Wick 3 or Jurassic World 3?

[ringedmortality]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

what is JW3? Is it John Wick 3 or Jurassic World 3?

 

Jurassic World.

[cookie]

Is Gillman really pacing for a sub-$10m OW? It's been selling all of two tickets where I live, as of currently.

[THUNDER BIRD]

I think it's better to use JWD in place of JW3 

[M37]

6 minutes ago, cookie said:

Is Gillman really pacing for a sub-$10m OW? It's been selling all of two tickets where I live, as of currently.

Original animated movie, so potential for a late - aka why not? - surge and/or solid IM, but all indications are audiences just don’t care and sub-$10 is probably more likely than not. 

[abracadabra1998]

https://deadline.com/2023/06/box-office-the-flash-no-hard-feelings-jennifer-lawrence-1235422274/

 

Wowza, NHF must have had great walk-ups. $2.2M in previews. Asteroid City also cleared a million with $1.1M. 20 million/10 million in the cards for each of these?

[M37]

Just now, abracadabra1998 said:

https://deadline.com/2023/06/box-office-the-flash-no-hard-feelings-jennifer-lawrence-1235422274/

 

Wowza, NHF must have had great walk-ups. $2.2M in previews. Asteroid City also cleared a million with $1.1M. 20 million/10 million in the cards for each of these?

NHF also had EA/Sneaks on Saturday, so whatever those brought in is likely included in the preview total, still more like ~$1.9M for Thursday alone. But yes, good walk-ups, but think $20M and especially $10M are a bit too high for each

[rehpyc]

21 hours ago, rehpyc said:

 

Indy T-8

NTTD: 8.28M

GA: 10.49M

JWD: 8.21M

JW4: 11.51M

Flash: 7.94M

TLM: 9.62M

 

Each of this, short of NTTD, maintained that positive uptick started yesterday, pointing towards the 8-9M range that JW4 has also begun pointing at.

 

NTTD: 7.84M

GA: 10.12M

JWD: 7.96M

JW4: 10.98M

Flash: 7.91M

TLM: 9.41M

[vafrow]

1 hour ago, cookie said:

Is Gillman really pacing for a sub-$10m OW? It's been selling all of two tickets where I live, as of currently.

 

This morning, I checked a 50km radius from me, which covers most of the Greater Toronto Area, a metro of 5M people. I counted 6 tickets sold for Thursday previews total.

 

Tickets have only been on sale since Tuesday evening, so, that's not a lot of time. Plus, schools are out on the Friday here, so, people will likely save the movie for the weekend. But, 6 tickets.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

NHF also had EA/Sneaks on Saturday, so whatever those brought in is likely included in the preview total, still more like ~$1.9M for Thursday alone. But yes, good walk-ups, but think $20M and especially $10M are a bit too high for each

I did not track early shows at all. Every movie have to have them these days :-)

[Tinalera]

Indy 5

Thurs June 29 Fri June 30

Vancouver and Calgary Canada (T-7)

 

		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	4	22	304	4103	4407	0.0689
	Fri	3	25	351	4758	5109	0.0687
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	20	255	3678	3933	0.0648
	Fri	4	26	313	4939	5252	0.0595

 

 

Dungeons and Dragons T-7 (And yes I made sure this time lol)

dnd T-7		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Vancouver	Thurs	3	15	104	2904	3008	0.0345
	Fri	3	19	203	3854	4057	0.0500
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Calgary	Thurs	4	17	140	3097	3237	0.0432
	Fri	4	14	357	2925	3282	0.1087

 

Seat Available difference

 

	V T	V F	C T	C F
INDY5	4407	5109	3933	5232
DND	3008	4057	3237	3282
Diff	1399	1052	696	1950

 

 

Only Fast X I have is from East coast which wouldnt apply to West Coast, so hence no Fast X

[vale9001]

original animated movies seem really dead. In the post pandemic everything flopped, only movies from franchises or already well know ip (minions, mario and puss in boots) succeed.

Let's see if Wish can break the curse. 

Edited June 23, 2023 by vale9001

[ThatWaluigiDude]

1 hour ago, vale9001 said:

original animated movies seem really dead. In the post pandemic everything flopped, only movies from franchises or already well know ip (minions, mario and puss in boots) succeed.

Let's see if Wish can break the curse. 

My boy Bad Guys did nothing wrong, everybody keeps forgetting it existed...

[misterpepp]

Full-week, full-day-showtime re-releases coming to at least a few national chains:

 

Pirates: Black Pearl - July 7

Toy Story - July 21

Frozen - Aug 4

Beauty and the Beast (OG) - Aug 18

Incredibles - Sep 1

Coco - Sep 15

Lion King (OG) - Sep 29

Moana - Oct 13

 

These are being done to celebrate Disney’s 100th anniversary.