The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[MightyDargon]

When exactly is Indy supposed to run up?

[Eric Lasagna]

7 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

When exactly is Indy supposed to run up?

Never.

[Bobzaruni]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Barbie Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	96	11684	12627	943	7.47%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

70

 

T-25 Comps:

	%		Sold T-25	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	55.80		60	1690		0/171	22094/23784	7.11%		10966	8.60%		10.04m
Scream 6	283.18		29	333		0/65	7216/7549	4.41%		3134	30.09%		16.14m
FX	126.41		23	746		0/182	26954/27700	2.69%		4122	22.88%		9.48m
TLM	129.00		60	731		0/154	21263/21994	3.32%		6561	14.37%		13.29m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Barbie's current tickets sold versus that final number.

EA PRE-SALE NOTE: Wed Early Access tickets went on sale one day before regular preview tickets went on sale and accounted for 196 tickets sold for Barbie.

 

Regal:     225/4246  [5.30% sold]
Matinee:    33/1757  [1.88% | 3.50% of all tickets sold]
------------    
Wed:    279/423 [65.96% sold] [+5 tickets sold]
Thr:    664/12204 [5.44% sold] [+65 tickets sold]

Hey, do you by any chance have a Spiderverse comp for Barbie or did it not start this early?

[Grebacio]

7 minutes ago, Bobzaruni said:

Hey, do you by any chance have a Spiderverse comp for Barbie or did it not start this early?

Spiderverse presales started 23 days before its release.

[ZackM]

Oppenheimer Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago
Showings Added	3	1,295
Seats Added	704	254,435
Seats Sold	910	34,030
6/25/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	423	1,298	34,940	255,139	13.69%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	5	14	33	59
ATP	Gross
$19.80	$691,812

[Bobzaruni]

5 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Spiderverse presales started 23 days before its release.

Ah okay, my bad

[M37]

10 hours ago, Flip said:

I also don’t get how the IM can be that low for a GA centric franchise that should bring in people less keen to see it on thursday night 

Here is the IMs of the last two summers, starting from Memorial Day through first week in August

Title	Previews	OW	IM	Notes
Thor L&T	$29.00	$144.17	4.97	July 4th Week
Flash	$9.70	$55.04	5.67	Father's Day
Bullet Train	$4.60	$30.03	6.53
TGM	$19.30	$126.71	6.57	EA Shows / Memorial Day
Blackening	$0.90	$6.01	6.68	EA Shows
Black Phone	$3.50	$23.63	6.75
No Hard Feelings	$2.20	$15.10	6.86
Nope	$6.40	$44.37	6.93
Trans-ROTB	$8.80	$61.05	6.94	EA Shows
ATSV	$17.40	$120.66	6.95
Crawdads	$2.30	$17.25	7.50
JWD	$18.00	$145.08	8.06
Asteroid City	$1.10	$9.00	8.18	7PM Preview
Elvis	$3.50	$31.21	8.92
Mermaid	$10.30	$95.58	9.28
Lightyear	$5.20	$50.58	9.73
Minions 2	$10.80	$107.01	9.95	4th of July Weekend
Super Pets	$2.20	$23.00	10.45
Elemental	$2.40	$29.60	12.33
Paws of Fury	$0.50	$6.32	12.52

 

Looking at that list compared to demo breakdowns, sure seems like the only way to get much above a 7x in middle of summer is by drawing in women over 25/35, whether that be moms & grandmas with kiddos to family films or on their own (Crawdads & Elvis).  Thursday previews usually skew male and young, and if that audience composition doesn't shift much over the weekend, then IM stays low

 

The Jurassic franchise is an oddity, in that its a tentpole that also hits mostly everybody, but lacking the fan rush of CBMs - it plays like pseudo family film. JW:FK had nearly a 10x in 2018 (though Thursday may have been soft due to NBA finals). Here was the OW demo report for JWD:

Dominion drew 54% guys, close to half from the moviegoing demo of 18-34. Those under 17 repped 15%. Diversity demos were 41% Caucasian, 25% Hispanic and Latino, 16% Black, and 15% Asian and 5% other.

...with the majority being over 25 at 56%

 

Now maybe Indiana Jones plays similar, but I have a difficult time seeing a 55/45 M/F split and 15% under 17. More likely it goes similar to Ghostbusters Afterlife (60M/40F and 72% over 25), which had a sub-10x IM in November, and that is unlikely to translate to an 8x or more in middle of summer. Or even goes closer to TGM and skews very hard to older men. A 7-7.5x IM range is not "low", but giving Indy the benefit of the doubt

[katnisscinnaplex]

24 minutes ago, M37 said:

Here is the IMs of the last two summers, starting from Memorial Day through first week in August

Title	Previews	OW	IM	Notes
Thor L&T	$29.00	$144.17	4.97	July 4th Week
Flash	$9.70	$55.04	5.67	Father's Day
Bullet Train	$4.60	$30.03	6.53
TGM	$19.30	$126.71	6.57	EA Shows / Memorial Day
Blackening	$0.90	$6.01	6.68	EA Shows
Black Phone	$3.50	$23.63	6.75
No Hard Feelings	$2.20	$15.10	6.86
Nope	$6.40	$44.37	6.93
Trans-ROTB	$8.80	$61.05	6.94	EA Shows
ATSV	$17.40	$120.66	6.95
Crawdads	$2.30	$17.25	7.50
JWD	$18.00	$145.08	8.06
Asteroid City	$1.10	$9.00	8.18	7PM Preview
Elvis	$3.50	$31.21	8.92
Mermaid	$10.30	$95.58	9.28
Lightyear	$5.20	$50.58	9.73
Minions 2	$10.80	$107.01	9.95	4th of July Weekend
Super Pets	$2.20	$23.00	10.45
Elemental	$2.40	$29.60	12.33
Paws of Fury	$0.50	$6.32	12.52

 

Looking at that list compared to demo breakdowns, sure seems like the only way to get much above a 7x in middle of summer is by drawing in women over 25/35, whether that be moms & grandmas with kiddos to family films or on their own (Crawdads & Elvis).  Thursday previews usually skew male and young, and if that audience composition doesn't shift much over the weekend, then IM stays low

 

The Jurassic franchise is an oddity, in that its a tentpole that also hits mostly everybody, but lacking the fan rush of CBMs - it plays like pseudo family film. JW:FK had nearly a 10x in 2018 (though Thursday may have been soft due to NBA finals). Here was the OW demo report for JWD:

Dominion drew 54% guys, close to half from the moviegoing demo of 18-34. Those under 17 repped 15%. Diversity demos were 41% Caucasian, 25% Hispanic and Latino, 16% Black, and 15% Asian and 5% other.

...with the majority being over 25 at 56%

 

Now maybe Indiana Jones plays similar, but I have a difficult time seeing a 55/45 M/F split and 15% under 17. More likely it goes similar to Ghostbusters Afterlife (60M/40F and 72% over 25), which had a sub-10x IM in November, and that is unlikely to translate to an 8x or more in middle of summer. Or even goes closer to TGM and skews very hard to older men. A 7-7.5x IM range is not "low", but giving Indy the benefit of the doubt

You can add EA for Bullet Train, Black Phone, Crawdads, Elvis and Lightyear

[reddevil19]

27 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

Title	Previews	OW	IM	Notes
Thor L&T	$29.00	$144.17	4.97	July 4th Week
Flash	$9.70	$55.04	5.67	Father's Day
Bullet Train	$4.60	$30.03	6.53
TGM	$19.30	$126.71	6.57	EA Shows / Memorial Day
Blackening	$0.90	$6.01	6.68	EA Shows
Black Phone	$3.50	$23.63	6.75
No Hard Feelings	$2.20	$15.10	6.86
Nope	$6.40	$44.37	6.93
Trans-ROTB	$8.80	$61.05	6.94	EA Shows
ATSV	$17.40	$120.66	6.95
Crawdads	$2.30	$17.25	7.50
JWD	$18.00	$145.08	8.06
Asteroid City	$1.10	$9.00	8.18	7PM Preview
Elvis	$3.50	$31.21	8.92
Mermaid	$10.30	$95.58	9.28
Lightyear	$5.20	$50.58	9.73
Minions 2	$10.80	$107.01	9.95	4th of July Weekend
Super Pets	$2.20	$23.00	10.45
Elemental	$2.40	$29.60	12.33
Paws of Fury	$0.50	$6.32	12.52

 

Excellent post - and once we eliminate the extremes of under 6M and over 15M previews, it's making me feel more and more like a ROTB-like performance is likely. 

[ZattMurdock]

36 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

Oh good, another excuse to humiliate ZattMurdoch who insistd it would do well because "nostalgia"

It’s ZattMurdock. With a k, not ch. I’m not one of the Murdoch boys, that’s disgusting. Ew.

 

Gentle reminder that this isn’t a discussion thread, and that not all films operate the same way. Thinking previews will tell Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny whole story at the box office is something no one here on the boards would do. It will be some interesting couple of weeks, that’s for sure.

[M37]

1 hour ago, Maggie said:

How are these numbers?

Not a lot of comps this far out, and even when we have numbers to compare, there may not be a great guide for the sales pattern to come. But for some perspective, Barbie (including EA) has sold ~44K tickets for Alpha 25 days before release. That's on par with/ahead of:

• Indiana Jones at T-7
• Flash at T-19
• Mermaid at T-9
• Fast X at T-5
• JWD at similar checkpoint
• Avatar 2 at similar checkpoint

Even with a lower level final week, seems more likely than not that previews (including EA) goes over $10M, and Barbie is going to be top summer film post-ATSV, but difficult just yet (IMO) to put a range/ceiling on the value. Personally, still mostly in the $70M-$80M range, but thoughts of $90M+ or even $100M+ are not unrealistic, pending more data

[M37]

6 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

You can add EA for Bullet Train, Black Phone, Crawdads, Elvis and Lightyear

And NHF! To be honest, I can't keep track anymore, and was sure I missed some. But its mostly the bigger ones with a wide run/extra day of PLF shows that I think may lower the IM to a degree, because demand for Thursday can exceed limited capacity for those. The rest are probably just pulling from Thursday and not impacting the overall ratio much

[TheFlatLannister]

10 hours ago, emoviefan said:

Flat from yesterday at least.  Will be interesting to see how this final week goes.

I’m not very optimistic. There just isn’t signs of a major turn around 

[M37]

On 6/23/2023 at 10:11 AM, M37 said:

If you're looking for better numbers ...

 

Indiana Jones & Dial of Destiny T-7 Update

Frankly, not much has changed since last update, with a whole lot of most flat lines, though tilting slightly down so that the average has dipped below $8M

 

The more concerning trend is the pace, or rather lack of it - well below the Flash/ATSV/even JWD range at this checkpoint - and what that could mean for the final week

• Optimistic Scenario - The longer sales window bottomed out the U-curve more, it plays better to casual audiences (maybe families?) aka GA comes home at the end (similar to GOTG3)
• Pessimistic Scenario - The film fails to really connect with younger GA, skews old, and pace continues to limp all the way through the finish

That the Denver and Jax/Ral/Pho markets, usually a good barometer for the breadth of demand, are all comping pretty low is of particular concern

 

As far as potential IM, Friday sales look decent, in that for both MTC1 and Drafthouse the ratio is almost identical to ATSV at similar checkpoints, and given size/presale rate/audience composition differences could see it nudging up over 7x, though doubtful IMO it gets up towards 8x

Overall, that combination generates this forecast, the mid-point of which is a number that's awfully similar to this past weekend...

 

Indiana Jones Forecast Matrix (T-7)		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$6.5	$6.8	$7.1	$7.4	$7.8	$8.1	$8.4	$8.7	$9.0
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	6.20	$40.3	$42.2	$44.2	$46.1	$48.1	$50.0	$51.9	$53.9	$55.8
	6.43	$41.8	$43.8	$45.8	$47.8	$49.8	$51.8	$53.8	$55.8	$57.8
	6.65	$43.2	$45.3	$47.4	$49.5	$51.5	$53.6	$55.7	$57.8	$59.9
	6.88	$44.7	$46.8	$49.0	$51.1	$53.3	$55.4	$57.6	$59.7	$61.9
	7.10	$46.2	$48.4	$50.6	$52.8	$55.0	$57.2	$59.5	$61.7	$63.9
	7.33	$47.6	$49.9	$52.2	$54.5	$56.8	$59.1	$61.3	$63.6	$65.9
	7.55	$49.1	$51.4	$53.8	$56.2	$58.5	$60.9	$63.2	$65.6	$68.0
	7.78	$50.5	$53.0	$55.4	$57.8	$60.3	$62.7	$65.1	$67.5	$70.0
	8.00	$52.0	$54.5	$57.0	$59.5	$62.0	$64.5	$67.0	$69.5	$72.0

 

 

The one bright spot in the tracking is Sacto, which recently has been on the lower end of comps but for this release is mostly leading the charge, so that's the sample I'll be watching most closely: to see if its a bellwether and others catch-up, or is pulling a TGM-lite (over-indexing in early sales) and falls back to the pack as the weak wears on. No pressure @Porthos!

Another 3 days of data ... and not much has changed. Still some room for a surprise - either positive or negative -  but all indications are suggesting a pretty straightforward finish, as most samples and comps are trending towards convergence probably just shy of $8M

 

NOTE: Averages include values not shown on the graph

 

No recent updates on sales past Thursday, but see post a few spots back regarding summer IMs, and don't think we'll see any surprise there either.

 

An preview at or below $8M, an IM around or just below 7x, and O/U Flash's $55M OW still seems like the general cut line (ie Forecast Matrix in quoted post still holds), though leaning more towards slightly below than above. Even over $50M isn't assured just yet

[rehpyc]

23 hours ago, rehpyc said:

 

Indy T-5

NTTD: 7.14M

GA: 9.71M

JWD: 7.50M

JW4: 10.0M

Flash: 7.86M

TLM: 8.71M

 

NTTD & JWD would suggest a low 7M, with GA, JW4, Flash, and TLM  suggesting more around 8M.

 

Indy T-4

NTTD: 6.85M

GA: 9.49M

JWD: 7.17M

JW4: 9.68M

Flash: 7.96M

TLM: 8.59M

 

The Flash is the only one that has continued a trend up, with a trajectory similar to JW4, GA, and TLM around 8.25-8.5M.

[DAJK]

Something I've noticed pretty consistently is that Oppenheimer's sales are pretty consistently much stronger, and on a much stronger pace than Barbie for Thursday.

 

However, at multiple theatres I track, Barbie has already taken Oppenheimer on Friday-Sunday in terms of pace as well as total sales. Interesting trajectory. Probably indicates that the Nolan "fanbase" is more of a pre-sale driver, but I do expect much of Oppenheimer's weekend business to be walk-up (it's going to skew very old), whereas Barbie I think will be a bit more pre-sale heavy throughout the weekend. 

 

I could honestly see 6M+ for both movies on Thursday. Perhaps even 7M, given Oppenheimer's PLF boost. Going to be a very fun match-up weekend. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I don't see how Oppenheimer can depend on walk-up business when it's an IMAX film. The hype and narrative is to see a Nolan film in IMAX 70mm, yet all the IMAX screenings are mostly sold-out/too crowded

[MrPink]

26 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I don't see how Oppenheimer can depend on walk-up business when it's an IMAX film. The hype and narrative is to see a Nolan film in IMAX 70mm, yet all the IMAX screenings are mostly sold-out/too crowded

 

Mmm yes my expectation is that it'll be very pre-sale heavy but the weekend multiplier itself might be OK because IMAX shows throughout the weekend will be really strong and propping up grosses each day since Thursday will be limited.

 

I'm also really curious how a 5pm previews time + 3 hour runtime is also going to affect the multiplier vs say Dunkirk.

[poweranimals]

1 hour ago, rehpyc said:

 

Indy T-4

NTTD: 6.85M

GA: 9.49M

JWD: 7.17M

JW4: 9.68M

Flash: 7.96M

TLM: 8.59M

 

The Flash is the only one that has continued a trend up, with a trajectory similar to JW4, GA, and TLM around 8.25-8.5M.

GA?

 

Edit: Never mind. It's Ghostbusters Afterlife.

Edited June 26, 2023 by poweranimals

[vale9001]

51 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Something I've noticed pretty consistently is that Oppenheimer's sales are pretty consistently much stronger, and on a much stronger pace than Barbie for Thursday.

 

However, at multiple theatres I track, Barbie has already taken Oppenheimer on Friday-Sunday in terms of pace as well as total sales. Interesting trajectory. Probably indicates that the Nolan "fanbase" is more of a pre-sale driver, but I do expect much of Oppenheimer's weekend business to be walk-up (it's going to skew very old), whereas Barbie I think will be a bit more pre-sale heavy throughout the weekend. 

 

I could honestly see 6M+ for both movies on Thursday. Perhaps even 7M, given Oppenheimer's PLF boost. Going to be a very fun match-up weekend. 

 

has this theater WED preview for Barbie? This could damage in general in every theater the other weekday of the week.