The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[TheFlatLannister]

On 6/9/2023 at 6:33 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elementals

 

THURSDAY

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
144	685	21579	3.2%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

56

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

40

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

This is doing pretty well all things considering. Hard to tell if Orlando MTCs are just overindexing because of Disney (Especially MTC1)

 

unofficial comp still pointing to ~$2.5M+

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

Elementals

 

THURSDAY

 

T-5

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
144	728	21579	3.4%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

43

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

 

unofficial comp pointing to $2.5M+

[ChipDerby]

2 hours ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

If the Flash underperforms what are the odds we see a general reshuffling of WB's rest of the year slate? They threw a lot of money into it's marketing after last year having to push movies back due to not having enough to market them.... 

Wouldn't be too surprised to see Aquaman pushed to 2024 and Wonka take it's spot since i would expect Ghostbusters to also get pushed, especially if more guilds strike

 

They're not moving anything. They want to be finished with the DCEU and take their year off.

[TwoMisfits]

43 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

Indiana Jones 5 (D-19)

 

323 tickets sold at 10 AMC's

 

So this has sold about 75% of the tickets that Oppenheimer has sold for its previews, not sure if Houston area loves Nolan or just doesn't give a shit about Indiana Jones but oof

 

I think I'm gonna have to rethink which movie is the 40+ Caucasian male draw this summer (it may be Oppenheimer and not MI7)...Oppenheimer is a movie so not in my wheelhouse, which is probably why it's a movie I'm not seeing well...

 

I was in Oppenheimer finishing low $100s DOM pre-summer...but these presales (more than IJ5, already?) are making me think I might be at least $100M too low...which is a good thing for summer box office...

 

To keep this on the tracking, it's set at 2 screens at both my locals, so not a big preset...but then again, Spidey started at that (unusually low for supers) 2 screens, too...

[Shawn Robbins]

Oppenheimer is definitely selling well across the board. I think the main cautionary tale as someone who tracked Indy 4 actively 15 years ago is to keep in mind it is probably not going to be as fan-heavy in presales as is sometimes assumed because it is associated tangentially with Star Wars via Ford and Lucasfilm and that general era of blockbuster movies.

 

That assumption happened within the box office community in 2008 and led to a great deal of doubt that it would get anywhere near the numbers it ended up grossing when the first days' numbers came out and didn't hold a candle to the Star Wars prequels or the Pirates trilogy.

 

Things are obviously much different today in terms of presale demand, but in relative terms, every type of movie has generally evolved in tandem.

 

I'm not saying Indy *will* beat the sagging projections, just that we should be careful in terms of comps. It's hard to weigh it directly against Oppenheimer, which is benefiting from the combo of Nolan fans (a more active and modern audience than Indy's) and a week of premium-only sales where it is designed to draw the bulk of its initial appeal.

 

End transmission. Gonna try to unwind and enjoy the weekend/grill some food this nice summer evening.

[emoviefan]

5 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Oppenheimer is definitely selling well across the board. I think the main cautionary tale as someone who tracked Indy 4 actively 15 years ago is to keep in mind it is probably not going to be as fan-heavy in presales as is sometimes assumed because it is associated tangentially with Star Wars via Ford and Lucasfilm and that general era of blockbuster movies.

 

That assumption happened within the box office community in 2008 and led to a great deal of doubt that it would get anywhere near the numbers it ended up grossing when the first days' numbers came out and didn't hold a candle to the Star Wars prequels or the Pirates trilogy.

 

Things are obviously much different today in terms of presale demand, but in relative terms, every type of movie has generally evolved in tandem.

 

I'm not saying Indy *will* beatthe sagging projections, just that we should be careful in terms of comps. It's hard to weigh it directly against Oppenheimer, which is benefiting from the combo of Nolan fans (a more active and modern audience than Indy's) and a week of premium-only sales where it is designed to draw the bulk of its initial appeal.

 

End transmission. Gonna try to unwind and enjoy the weekend/grill some food this nice summer evening.

Shawn my biggest question is who are the people buying tickets 5 weeks early for Oppenheimer. Chrstopher Nolan is my favorite active director and I sill have not bought tickets for that nor will I until a few days to release. Mission Impossible is my favorite Action Adventure franchise and I will not be buying tickets for that on Wednesday when tickets go on sale.  A few days before release. I think I will be good.  I am guessing there are a lot of people out there like me. The Flash probably Thursday or so for a saturday showing.  I guess this is my long winded way of saying I think the dogma some around here some have about presales  and that the Flash and Indy 5 are either going to bomb or be massive disappointments because presales aren't great is a little frustrating . 

[MrPink]

26 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Shawn my biggest question is who are the people buying tickets 5 weeks early for Oppenheimer. Chrstopher Nolan is my favorite active director and I sill have not bought tickets for that nor will I until a few days to release. Mission Impossible is my favorite Action Adventure franchise and I will not be buying tickets for that on Wednesday when tickets go on sale.  A few days before release. I think I will be good.  I am guessing there are a lot of people out there like me. The Flash probably Thursday or so for a saturday showing.  I guess this is my long winded way of saying I think the dogma some around here some have about presales  and that the Flash and Indy 5 are either going to bomb or be massive disappointments because presales aren't great is a little frustrating . 

 

[XXR & Friends]

29 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

I guess this is my long winded way of saying I think the dogma some around here some have about presales  and that the Flash and Indy 5 are either going to bomb or be massive disappointments because presales aren't great is a little frustrating . 

 

There are plenty of people like you who don't buy tickets until just before release, hence why the final week is the strongest. That is accounted for in most of the prognostication that takes place here. There are undeniable buying patterns based on a variety of factors that are almost always the same (+/- 10% let's say). Sure there can be outliers but that usually involves a unique set of circumstances which in all likelihood is not applicable to these films. 

[Eric is Quiet]

3 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

New York's gonna be lit mah boi 🔥

[Koni]

1 minute ago, Eric Prime said:

New York's gonna be lit mah boi 🔥

I'm not sure if I completely follow here... sorry about that, still new here.

[ZackM]

On 6/9/2023 at 9:10 AM, M37 said:

Hopefully @ZackM drops a T-7 update for Flash, but I expect it fall below the 70K benchmark I had set before, making it an uphill climb from there just to get to $11M+ for previews, with no review drop catalyst coming in the final week  

 

 

Sorry, I've been super busy these last couple weeks, but I do have data for each of the last few days.  I'll post an update in the morning.

[Rorschach]

36 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

[Eric is Quiet]

39 minutes ago, Koni said:

I'm not sure if I completely follow here... sorry about that, still new here.

Me, Pink, and a few other users I'm good friends with are going to see Oppy in NYC together the Saturday of release. Just hyping things up between the two of us.

[M37]

56 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Shawn my biggest question is who are the people buying tickets 5 weeks early for Oppenheimer. Chrstopher Nolan is my favorite active director and I sill have not bought tickets for that nor will I until a few days to release. Mission Impossible is my favorite Action Adventure franchise and I will not be buying tickets for that on Wednesday when tickets go on sale.  A few days before release. I think I will be good.  I am guessing there are a lot of people out there like me. The Flash probably Thursday or so for a saturday showing.  I guess this is my long winded way of saying I think the dogma some around here some have about presales  and that the Flash and Indy 5 are either going to bomb or be massive disappointments because presales aren't great is a little frustrating . 

Let me ask it this way: what portion of a film’s eventual audience watch it on the opening Thursday? Yet, with only that preview gross in hand, knowing the nuance of the genre, time of year, etc, one can project a film’s OW and final gross within a reasonable range, no?

 

That’s the same rationale of tracking presales, in that most people aren’t buying tickets weeks in advance, but a predictable enough portion of them are that it narrows down the range of outcomes. Can’t say for example Indy 5 has sold exactly 4% of its final Thursday total (so 25x from here), but can be reasonably sure it’s not 2% or 10% (50x or 10x) 

[emoviefan]

35 minutes ago, XXRptimus Primal said:

 

There are plenty of people like you who don't buy tickets until just before release, hence why the final week is the strongest. That is accounted for in most of the prognostication that takes place here. There are undeniable buying patterns based on a variety of factors that are almost always the same (+/- 10% let's say). Sure there can be outliers but that usually involves a unique set of circumstances which in all likelihood is not applicable to these films. 

I understand all that. I am under no illusion that Flash or Indy are getting within sniffing distance of 100 million opening weekend but in no way do I believe that just because ticket sales are slow right now that there are not enough late buyers and walkups to push Flash above black adam and into the mid 70's or low 80's on a holiday weekend with two holidays and presumed good wom and that if the Indy  reviews do continue to get better as we get closer to release that older casual audiences will not get off the fence and prevent those alarming low 60-70 million tracking  figures from happening.  Otherwise the second half of this summer movie season is going to be pretty depressing  because a 3 hour talky R rated movie about the formation of the atomic bomb is not doing 300 million dollars no matter how good it is. 

[21C]

3 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

I understand all that. I am under no illusion that Flash or Indy are getting within sniffing distance of 100 million opening weekend but in no way do I believe that just because ticket sales are slow right now that there are not enough late buyers and walkups to push Flash above black adam and into the mid 70's or low 80's on a holiday weekend with two holidays and presumed good wom and that if the Indy  reviews do continue to get better as we get closer to release that older casual audiences will not get off the fence and prevent those alarming low 60-70 million tracking  figures from happening.  Otherwise the second half of this summer movie season is going to be pretty depressing  because a 3 hour talky R rated movie about the formation of the atomic bomb is not doing 300 million dollars no matter how good it is. 

I don't think I've seen that many people here arguing vehemently against an opening in the mid 70s or the low 80s. I think everyone's aware both of those are reasonable possibilities at the moment.

[Dragoncaine]

Thread is depressing. Well-reasoned and very likely, but depressing.

[JohnnyGossamer]

12 minutes ago, 21C said:

I don't think I've seen that many people here arguing vehemently against an opening in the mid 70s or the low 80s. I think everyone's aware both of those are reasonable possibilities at the moment.

Yes. This. Many, myself included, still expect 75M+ OW DOM for Flash. I still think Indy is doing 75M+to o. I don't think either gets over 100M OW DOM but I think 75M OW DOM is the floor for each and each will likely have at least a 2.5+ or even close to a 3 multiplier of what the OW DOM is because of decent word of mouth and summer days.

[Mulder]

19 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

I understand all that. I am under no illusion that Flash or Indy are getting within sniffing distance of 100 million opening weekend but in no way do I believe that just because ticket sales are slow right now that there are not enough late buyers and walkups to push Flash above black adam and into the mid 70's or low 80's on a holiday weekend with two holidays and presumed good wom and that if the Indy  reviews do continue to get better as we get closer to release that older casual audiences will not get off the fence and prevent those alarming low 60-70 million tracking  figures from happening.  Otherwise the second half of this summer movie season is going to be pretty depressing  because a 3 hour talky R rated movie about the formation of the atomic bomb is not doing 300 million dollars no matter how good it is. 

Nobody's said Oppenheimer will make 300 million. If the summer movie season doesn't have another 300 million grosser after Spider-Verse, well that's on Hollywood. Not on trackers for just...stating facts. You seem to be upset at this thread for not blindly professing everything's fine for Flash and Indy when well...it isn't. 

[Johnny Tran]

I really don't think the release schedule is being talked about enough.  It's a relatively weak schedule until after the July 4th weekend.  That should help The Flash and Indiana Jones.  Spider-Man next week will already be into it's third weekend and you have to assume Transformers is dropping 65% next weekend. 

 

If the lack of competition doesn't help both movies then it's going to be a dead Summer. 

 

I think too much is being made of both Barbie and Oppenheimer.  They should do well but I don't see them breaking out.  Tom Cruise has a good shot at running yet another Summer. 

[Mulder]

5 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

I really don't think the release schedule is being talked about enough.  It's a relatively weak schedule until after the July 4th weekend.  That should help The Flash and Indiana Jones.  Spider-Man next week will already be into it's third weekend and you have to assume Transformers is dropping 65% next weekend. 

 

If the lack of competition doesn't help both movies then it's going to be a dead Summer. 

 

I think too much is being made of both Barbie and Oppenheimer.  They should do well but I don't see them breaking out.  Tom Cruise has a good shot at running yet another Summer. 

Why would Rise of The Beasts drop 65%? The WOM seems good, it's at 90% verified RT score and has an A- CinemaScore.