The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[BadOlCatSylvester]

New long-range forecast from Pro just dropped: https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-sonic-the-hedgehog-2-ambulance-and-everything-everywhere-all-at-once

• $40M-$55M opening and a $115M-$165M total for Sonic 2
• $12M-$18M opening and a $35M-$55M total for AmbuLAnce
• $3M-$7M opening and a $10M-$20M total for Everything Everywhere All at Once

[SchumacherFTW]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

RRR pre-sales

That's going to be a fun performance to track that weekend

[Krissykins]

Long range Forecast has $15-25m for The Lost City.

 

Sub $25m would be really disappointing. I’m hoping for $30m+. The advertising and buzz are there. 
 

Morbius and Sonic doing $80m and $115m totals at their low end range would be dreadful for both. 
 

Hoping April is much stronger than it appears. 

[john2000]

11 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

New long-range forecast from Pro just dropped: https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-sonic-the-hedgehog-2-ambulance-and-everything-everywhere-all-at-once

• $40M-$55M opening and a $115M-$165M total for Sonic 2
• $12M-$18M opening and a $35M-$55M total for AmbuLAnce
• $3M-$7M opening and a $10M-$20M total for Everything Everywhere All at Once

i think sonic 2 goes higher, 60-70 ow and i also could see a 200 dom for this one.

[ThatWaluigiDude]

17 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

New long-range forecast from Pro just dropped: https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-sonic-the-hedgehog-2-ambulance-and-everything-everywhere-all-at-once

• $40M-$55M opening and a $115M-$165M total for Sonic 2
• $12M-$18M opening and a $35M-$55M total for AmbuLAnce
• $3M-$7M opening and a $10M-$20M total for Everything Everywhere All at Once

I dunno, I can't really see Sonic 2 opening lower than the first one. Do we know the budget of Ambulance?

[BadOlCatSylvester]

10 minutes ago, john2000 said:

i think sonic 2 goes higher, 60-70 ow and i also could see a 200 dom for this one.

 

4 minutes ago, ThatWaluigiDude said:

I dunno, I can't really see Sonic 2 opening lower than the first one.

I can actually see Pro's projection panning out, at least for Sonic 2. The fact of the matter is families haven't really been all that enthuastic about returning to the big screen, hence every family movie besides Sing 2 (which is still a far cry from the first film and only profitable because of Illumination's inexpensiveness) bombing the past couple of years. As I said previously, had COVID never happened then Sonic 2 legitimately could've been a breakout hit and increased substantially from the first film, blazing past half a bilion with ease. Now, who knows?

 

That being said, my predictions have been absolutely destroyed this past year, so you should probably not take me seriously. I thought Free Guy, Dune, Ghostbusters Afterlife and Uncharted would all bomb. Make of that what you will.

 

I just hope that Sonic 3 logo doesn't end up retroactively eliciting the same energy as the Rangers of the New Republic or Rogue Squadron logos.

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 3/4/2022 at 9:26 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
The Batman	3,553	171,959		158,279	13,680	4,765	0
Uncharted	3,196	44,220	-37.10%	44,103	117	9	0
Dog	2,985	37,391	-10.70%	37,327	64	0	0
Spider-Man: NWH	2,360	25,101	-6.48%	25,015	86	0	37
Death on the Nile	2,226	24,861	-19.13%	24,815	46	0	0
Studio 666	2,027	9,113	-69.92%	9,104	9	0	0
Jackass Forever	1793	16578	-44.52%	16558	20	0	0
Sing 2	1,581	11,270	-23.89%	11,214	56	0	21
Marry Me	936	5,641	-77.10%	5,641	0	0	0
Hotel Transylvania 4	759	5,942		5,933	9	0	0
Cyrano	712	7,789	-14.79%	7,789	0	0	0
Scream	694	4,763	-55.04%	4,744	19	0	0
The Cursed	424	2,319	-81.66%	2,316	3	0	0
Blacklight	350	2,275	-77.89%	2,275	0	0	0
Bheemla Nayak	247	1,832	-43.11%	1,832	0	0	0
Worst Person	239	1,361	-69.49%	1,361	0	0	0
Jhund	222	1,934		1,934	0	0	0
Moonfall	213	1,074	-82.47%	1,074	0	0	0
Encanto	209	1,016	-67.63%	1,007	9	0	9
Oscar Nom Shorts	232	2,020	-34.44%	2,020	0	0	0

 

US showtime sample for 3/4/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

Batman- 171,959

 - No Way Home - 206,421 (3,340 TC)

 - Black Widow - 156,781 (3,409)

 

Future Releases

 

T-2 Week Previews

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 - 2,855 (1,454)

 - Jackass Forever - 2,779 (1,845)

 - Halloween Kills - 2,694 (1,368)

X - 1,829 (1,297)

 - The 355 - 1,846 (1,191)

 - House of Gucci - 2,045 (1,402)

 

T-3 Week Previews

Lost City (Fandango EA 3/19) - 76 (75)

Lost City (Girls Night Out 3/22) - 116 (115)

Lost City (Date Night Out 3/23) - 400 (398)

Lost City (Thursday Only) - 5,334 (1,929)

 - Scream - 3,888 (1,802)

 - No Way Home - 5,529 (793)

 

Three days of early shows for Lost City... 😒

Movie	Theaters	Shows	Change	Standard	PLF	IMAX	3D
The Batman	3,587	124,476	-27.61%	114,282	10,194	3,506	0
Uncharted	3,135	39,716	-10.19%	39,623	93	0	0
Dog	2,982	35,575	-4.86%	35,508	67	0	0
Spider-Man	2,359	24,117	-3.92%	24,034	83	0	41
Death on the Nile	2,119	22,710	-8.65%	22,677	33	0	0
Radhe Shyam	788	13,932		13,913	19	0	0
Sing 2	1623	11363	0.83%	11301	62	0	20
Jackass Forever	1,474	11,342	-31.58%	11,323	19	0	0
Hotel Transylvania 4	904	7,303	22.90%	7,260	43	0	0
Tyson's Run	420	5,682		5,682	0	0	0
Cyrano	632	4,945	-36.51%	4,945	0	0	0
Marry Me	609	3,795	-32.72%	3,795	0	0	0
Scream	558	3,712	-22.07%	3,695	17	0	0
The LEGO Movie	366	3,083		3,083	0	0	0
Blacklight	266	1,731	-23.91%	1,731	0	0	0
BTS Pernission	692	1,479		1,477	2	0	0
The Secret Life of Pets	236	1,461		1,461	0	0	0
The Cursed	226	1,305	-43.73%	1,300	5	0	0
Studio 666	287	1,252	-86.26%	1,252	0	0	0
Belfast	347	1,250		1,250	0	0	0
Licorice Pizza	289	1,133		1,133	0	0	0

 

US showtime sample for 3/11/22 weekend

 

OW shows comps

Tyson's Run - 5,682

 - Blue Bayou - 5,439 (444 TC)

 - Eyes of Tammy Faye - 5,545 (394)

 - The Harder They Fall - 5,792 (498)

 

Future Releases

 

T-1 Week

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 - 26,472 (2,001)

 - West Side Story - 27,605 (1,950)

 - Dog - 26,257 (2,172)

 - Matrix (OW) - 23,924 (2,657)

X - 19,249 (1,746)

 - Last Night in Soho - 20,306 (1,787)

 - Blacklight - 19,740 (1,627)

 - Many Saints of Newark - 18,302 (1,823)

The Outfit - 9,823 (821)

 - King's Daughter - 10,270 (815)

 - The Cursed - 11,540 (959)

Umma - 6,971 (506)

 - Licorice Pizza - 5,632 (607)

 

T-2 Week Previews

Lost City (Fandango EA 3/19) - 83 (83)

Lost City (Girls Night Out 3/22) - 122 (122)

Lost City (Date Night Out 3/23) - 424 (426)

Lost City (Thursday Only) - 5,838 (2,142)

 - Dune - 5,906 (2,129)

RRR - 3,336 (901)

 

T-3 Week Previews

Morbius - 4,809 (937)

 - No Way Home - 5,529 (793)

 - Lost City - 5,334 (1,929)

[BruiseCruise]

What kind of OW numbers are you guys projecting for JJK0?

[filmlover]

Just saw that tickets for Father Stu are now on sale and that it's rated R? I guess I shouldn't be surprised since it's...well, Mel Gibson...but that seems like it's gonna narrow its appeal down to a very limited audience.

[Issac Newton]

Just a question, how does US film board give rates to film? I meant Jujutsu Kaisen Movie 0 is rated G in Japan, while US rated it as R. Why? it is so much different 🥲?

[snarkmachine]

That Sonic 2 range seems very sus considering how well the first one did

[BruiseCruise]

Lol at Sonic 2's high end OW being less than the actual OW for the first one

[XXR & Friends]

54 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

What kind of OW numbers are you guys projecting for JJK0?

$12-15M

 

32 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Just a question, how does US film board give rates to film? I meant Jujutsu Kaisen Movie 0 is rated G in Japan, while US rated it as R. Why? it is so much different 🥲?

 

It’s PG-13 here.

[poweranimals]

7 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

 

I can actually see Pro's projection panning out, at least for Sonic 2. The fact of the matter is families haven't really been all that enthuastic about returning to the big screen, hence every family movie besides Sing 2 (which is still a far cry from the first film and only profitable because of Illumination's inexpensiveness) bombing the past couple of years. As I said previously, had COVID never happened then Sonic 2 legitimately could've been a breakout hit and increased substantially from the first film, blazing past half a bilion with ease. Now, who knows?

Sing 2 went up against the behemoth that was NWH though.

Edited March 11, 2022 by poweranimals

[BadOlCatSylvester]

1 hour ago, poweranimals said:

Sing 2 went up against the behemoth that was NWH though.

It appealed to a different audience than Spidey, which is why it was able to hang on. The other movies released around that time like Matrix 4 and The King's Man appealed to the same demographic as Spidey, which proceeded to destroy the former two akin to what Endgame did to Godzilla 2 and Detective Pikachu.

[filmlover]

I feel like Dog has benefitted from the lack of family movies on the market despite the PG-13 rating. By April I imagine there will definitely be a desire for a new kid-friendly movie.

[Tinalera]

It aint much yet but...

 

The Lost City

Toronto Ontario Greater Toronto area

Thurs March 25 taken March 11

6 Theatres

21 Shows

 

Total Sold 3

Total Remaining 6804

Total seats 6807

Percentage .04 (had to break out the abacus for that one )

 

Its the start of a track on this end, more seats as time goes by but its a start. 

 

 

 

 

[Eric is Quiet]

On 3/10/2022 at 11:20 PM, Eric Says Trans Rights said:

The Lost City Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	119	12340	0.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 2

 

Comp

3.132x of Jungle Cruise T-14 (8.45M)

0.419x of Scream T-14 (1.47M)

0.488x of Uncharted T-14 (1.8M)

The Lost City Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	55	121	12340	0.98%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 2

 

Comp

2.630x of Jungle Cruise T-13 (7.1M)

0.407x of Scream T-13 (1.43M)

0.453x of Uncharted T-13 (1.68M)

 

Tomorrow the film will premiere at SXSW. I don't think it'll change anything too drastically tomorrow, since reactions will come out a half hour or so after I start doing sales, but it will be interesting how it trickles into the weekend.

[Joyous Legion]

I know I mentioned earlier that we didn’t have my owrfect comps, and we are in the slow boring middle section. But the last few days feel especially slow. Maybe the half dozen sneak days will help from WoM 😂

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Like I said before, Lost City is something we won't even have a measure on until it opens like Dog. Really hoping for the sake of non-IPs and marketplace it opens nice and doesn't flop. The end of the trailer gets laughs in the theaters so hopefully that means something and awareness is there. SXSW won't move needle but a final Paramount marketing blitz can help