The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	223	23587	27757	4170	15.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

285

 

T-6 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	102.46		256	4070		0/178	21664/25734	15.82%		9196	45.35%		14.16m
SC	212.54		188	1962		0/111	15649/17611	11.14%		5847	71.32%		18.70m
NTTD	292.22		125	1427		0/145	21026/22453	6.36%		3737	111.59%		18.12m
Dune	365.47		93	1141		0/79	11187/12328	9.26%		2915	143.05%		18.64m
TG:M	65.75		399	6342		0/271	30967/37309	17.00%		11474	36.34%		12.66m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-6 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	262.83		79	1493		0/87	11891/13384	11.16%		4407	89.04%		19.54m
JWD (adj)	---		270	3924		0/197	20419/24343	16.12%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: Both the F9 and the BW comp have been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during pre-sale runs of those films (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.62512x JW2 at the same sources of tracking at T-6 [22.38m adj]
JW3 = 3.13352x KotM at the same sources of tracking at T-6 [17.77m adj]
JW3 = 0.86837x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-6 [17.98m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:        712/6145  [11.59% sold]
Matinee:    241/1535  [15.70% | 5.78% of all tickets sold]

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	224	23313	27932	4619	16.54%

 

Total Showings Added Today	1
Total Seats Added Today	175
Total Seats Sold Today	449

 

T-5 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	106.92		250	4320		0/193	22993/27313	15.82%		9196	50.23%		14.78m
SC	215.34		183	2145		0/113	15466/17611	12.18%		5847	79.00%		18.95m
NTTD	298.77		119	1546		0/145	20907/22453	6.89%		3737	123.60%		18.52m
Dune	383.64		63	1204		0/79	11124/12328	9.77%		2915	158.46%		19.57m
TG:M	69.42		312	6654		0/271	30655/37309	17.83%		11474	40.26%		13.37m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-5 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	270.92		113	1606		0/89	11878/13484	11.91%		4407	98.73%		20.14m
JWD (adj)	---		427	4351		0/198	20167/24518	17.75%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: Both the F9 and the BW comp have been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during pre-sale runs of those films (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.6905x JW2 at the same sources of tracking at T-5 [23.28m adj]
JW3 = 3.15993x KotM at the same sources of tracking at T-5 [17.92m adj]
JW3 = 0.90442x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-5 [18.72m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:        777/6145   [12.64% sold]
Matinee:    285/1535  [18.57% | 6.17% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	224	23313	27932	4619	16.54%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

449

 

 

@Brainbug the Dinosaur @Mulder

 

======

 

This was a very nice Fri->Sat bump*, and looking at my internal patterns... Well "so it begins" seems about the right thing to say here

* Actually, locally at least, any Sat bump is a good one, never mind one that's an over 50% jump.  Mind, Fri was a tiny bit soft compared to the previous Thur, but this is still ahead of the very strong Thur, so I think the point still stands.

 

Anyway, no guarantee that this is in fact the beginning of the liftoff locally.  But gotta say, I like the internal trendline at least relative to my gut-instinct in my head.

[titanic2187]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

@Brainbug the Dinosaur @Mulder

 

======

 

This was a very nice Fri->Sat bump*, and looking at my internal patterns... Well "so it begins" seems about the right thing to say here

* Actually, locally at least, any Sat bump is a good one, never mind one that's an over 50% jump.  Mind, Fri was a tiny bit soft compared to the previous Thur, but this is still ahead of the very strong Thur, so I think the point still stands.

 

Anyway, no guarantee that this is in fact the beginning of the liftoff locally.  But gotta say, I like the internal trendline at least relative to my gut-instinct in my head.

The impact of people keep seeing JWD trailer in front of TGM. 

[Krissykins]

Just noticed both Jurassic World films had the exact same weekend multipliers: 2.55

 

Thats impressive. 

Edited June 5, 2022 by Krissykins

[Eric is Quiet]

On 6/4/2022 at 12:29 AM, Eric Mitchell said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	2346	23705	9.90%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 109

 

Comp

2.056x of F9 T-6 (14.6M)

2.100x of Venom 2 T-6 (24.36M)

2.060x of No Time to Die T-6 (12.98M)

1.019x of Top Gun 2 T-6 (19.62M)

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	2500	23705	10.55%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 154

 

Comp

1.932x of F9 T-5 (13.72M)

1.968x of Venom 2 T-5 (22.83M)

2.056x of No Time to Die T-5 (12.95M)

1.005x of Top Gun 2 T-5 (19.35M)

 

Mickey's Law really is a cruel, cruel beast.

[filmlover]

Didn't Fallen Kingdom end up overperforming compared to pre-sales due to walk-ups surprising everyone? It ain't over until it's over.

[Nublar7]

Forgive me, I am not sure I completely understand all these theater tracking in relation to weekend projections. But is Dominion still on track for a $180 million opening, or is it looking lower/higher?

[XXR & Friends]

33 minutes ago, Nublar7 said:

Forgive me, I am not sure I completely understand all these theater tracking in relation to weekend projections. But is Dominion still on track for a $180 million opening, or is it looking lower/higher?

 

I would personally estimate lower @ $160-170M. There are still a lot of variables to figure out in the next few days, though. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

41 minutes ago, Nublar7 said:

Forgive me, I am not sure I completely understand all these theater tracking in relation to weekend projections. But is Dominion still on track for a $180 million opening, or is it looking lower/higher?

I think it is, actually, but it really depends on the internal multi. But I think 20+ previews will happen based on the last few days. It's showing the signs of a final week/walkup explosion. 

Edited June 5, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[John Marston]

Top Gun Maverick highest grossing film of the summer worldwide and not just domestically?

 

 

 

 

[keysersoze123]

24 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

I think it is, actually, but it really depends on the internal multi. But I think 20+ previews will happen based on the last few days. It's showing the signs of a final week/walkup explosion. 

Will need 350K+ in alpha to make that much. Do you think it will get there?

[M37]

1 hour ago, Nublar7 said:

Forgive me, I am not sure I completely understand all these theater tracking in relation to weekend projections. But is Dominion still on track for a $180 million opening, or is it looking lower/higher?

It's honestly murky, but the actual ticket sales data is pointing lower, maybe a $140-$150M opening. But within those numbers is a baked-in expectation this movie will have a strong finishing kick, and bump that projection up a good amount.  How much is still an unknown, but last couple of days/data points have been really strong, and the arrow is definitely pointing up. $180 is certainly possible on the higher end of where things can go from here, but all the way up to $200 will take something special, which cannot be ruled out

[LegendaryBen]

3 hours ago, Eric Mitchell said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	2500	23705	10.55%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 154

 

Comp

1.932x of F9 T-5 (13.72M)

1.968x of Venom 2 T-5 (22.83M)

2.056x of No Time to Die T-5 (12.95M)

1.005x of Top Gun 2 T-5 (19.35M)

 

Mickey's Law really is a cruel, cruel beast.

Does this indicate JWD will open sub-Fallen Kingdom or is there still hope?

[Menor the Destroyer]

15 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Will need 350K+ in alpha to make that much. Do you think it will get there?

Will it need 350k? I think it can do it from 320k Alpha and overperformance in other chains, which is about where I have it. Sacramento is really strong and the comps there are probably gonna finish at like 23m. I wish we still had Cinemark data to check. 

Edited June 5, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Will it need 350k? I think it can do it from 320k Alpha and overperformance in other chains, which is about where I have it. Sacramento is really strong and the comps there are probably gonna finish at like 23m. I wish we still had Cinemark data to check. 

Not that much. Bats did 335K thursday for 17.5m. Plus my limited view into MTC2 does not look like huge overperformance as well. 

[John Marston]

3 hours ago, Eric Mitchell said:

Jurassic World: Dominion Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	134	2500	23705	10.55%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 154

 

Comp

1.932x of F9 T-5 (13.72M)

1.968x of Venom 2 T-5 (22.83M)

2.056x of No Time to Die T-5 (12.95M)

1.005x of Top Gun 2 T-5 (19.35M)

 

Mickey's Law really is a cruel, cruel beast.

 

I’m confused now. Some are saying it’s showing a nice pickup in sales but others are saying it is doing badly 

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Not that much. Bats did 335K thursday for 17.5m. Plus my limited view into MTC2 does not look like huge overperformance as well. 

Batman was very Alpha-heavy, though, probably the most of any big blockbuster recently. 

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Batman was very Alpha-heavy, though, probably the most of any big blockbuster recently. 

 

I  know. For JWD to have bats ratio and hit 20m it needs 390K. That is why I mentioned 350K. I cannot see more than 300K at this point. But one never know how things will be on thursday. But doubling from say 175K wednesday would be hard and 175K by wednesday is not a joke. 

[Bigscrubnus]

30 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

I’m confused now. Some are saying it’s showing a nice pickup in sales but others are saying it is doing badly 

I’m confused too tbh

[M37]

Per the data in the old tracking thread, Venom sold ~162K tickets from T-5 to end of Thursday night (45K --> 207K), including 100K on Thursday alone. JWD would need to be 60% over that pace (+255K) to get to 350K total for Alpha from where it sits now

 

But for the last 3 days (T-8 to T-5), JWD has been 70% better (17K vs 10K). That's a difficult pace to maintain given the number of tickets already sold (and TG2 in the market vs the void Venom faced) but also a much lower total growth rate (+270% vs +480% from T-5).  Seems plausible IMO

 

Venom T-5

Venom Final

 

Venom T-8