The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[SchumacherFTW]

52 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

You can find plenty of crazy stunts on YouTube and Tiktok without shelling out money for a Jackass ticket, so I'm not sure Forever's going to perform all that much better than Moonfall.

 

I hope Uncharted gets at least decent reviews because otherwise exhibitors are fucked until March.

Jackass isn't just about the stunts, anybody can do that. It's the personalities that have made sure it's still a fondly remembered franchise. 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, Eric Riley said:

Jackass Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Countingb

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	29	277	4304	6.44%

 

Comp

0.374x of The Suicide Squad (1.53M)

1.787x of Free Guy T-3 (3.93M)

0.347x of Scream T-3 (1.21M)

 

Yeah it's kinda hard to find good comps for this tbh. If anybody has suggestions, that would be great.

T-3 days it dont really matter. Use Ghosbusters if you have or any other film that opened $20M range.

[JonahVex]

What kind of overseas performance do you guys think Uncharted will do?

[filmlover]

8 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

You can find plenty of crazy stunts on YouTube and Tiktok without shelling out money for a Jackass ticket, so I'm not sure Forever's going to perform all that much better than Moonfall.

 

I hope Uncharted gets at least decent reviews because otherwise exhibitors are fucked until March.

Jackass has actually sold a decent amount of tickets, unlike Moonfall (which actually has a realistic shot at making less than No Way Home this upcoming weekend even with the latter entering its eighth frame). Even if it doesn't approach the heights of the previous movies, it should still make in the mid-teens and is destined to turn a nice profit given that the budget was likely all of $2.

[DAJK]

Screw Moonfall. If Lionsgate has decided that Canadians don’t deserve to watch this movie, then it can crash and burn for all I care.

 

 

That being said... maybe Lionsgate KNEW the film was trash, and decided they’d save us from having to sit through it.

 

(also Jackass is selling really well here, although I have a hunch that walk-ups will be crap)

[filmlover]

11 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Screw Moonfall. If Lionsgate has decided that Canadians don’t deserve to watch this movie, then it can crash and burn for all I care.

 

 

That being said... maybe Lionsgate KNEW the film was trash, and decided they’d save us from having to sit through it.

 

(also Jackass is selling really well here, although I have a hunch that walk-ups will be crap)

Lionsgate released the first 5 minutes of Moonfall online a few months ago, which is usually a desperate last minute marketing tactic reserved for movies that are tracking poorly as they are about to open. Seems pretty obvious they've known they had a bomb that was doomed to fail on their hands for a while.

[Eric is Anxious]

16 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Screw Moonfall. If Lionsgate has decided that Canadians don’t deserve to watch this movie, then it can crash and burn for all I care.

 

Them promoting and selling NFTs with this film means it is objectively good this will bomb. Glad you're on my side brotha.

[el sid]

Today no Moonfall (tomorrow again).
The Jackass Investor Connect Screening, counted today at 10am EST for today, had 155 sold tickets in 4 theaters (1 show/theater). It had also 1 show in the AMC Grand Rapids and a Sell Out was reported - in this case it could be true because the other cinema halls in other theaters were also not too big and looked crowded but I'm not sure. So it's 155+ sold tickets, then in 5 theaters.
And if I add the AMC Barton Creek (because it had no showtimes in the AMC Lakeline) it would be 200+ sold tickets (155 + 45 in Barton Creek + maybe a Sell Out). I think these are quite good numbers.

Jackass Forever, counted today at the same time for Friday, Feb 4:
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 56 (9 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 64 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 49 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 14 (5 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 61 (7 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 70 (9 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 270 (10 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 584.
Up ok 17% since yesterday. They added 20 (!) new showtimes today.
My guess would be ca. 900 sold tickets on Thursday for Jackass and e.g. Ghostbusters: Afterlife had on that day for Friday 1.124. Would/will be a nice presales number but I'm also not sure if it will have decent walk-ups.

 

The tickets for Death on the Nile went on sale a few hours ago (?) and I counted 2-3 hours ago 52 sold tickets for Thursday and 26 sold tickets for Friday. So not terrible and also not sensational. But several for sure untrue Sell Outs were reported and so these shows were not even accessible and it had e.g. no showtimes for Friday in the AMC in New York.
The next days will bring more clarity.

[SchumacherFTW]

My Jackass show here in England is looking nice and busy on Friday night, probably a good 150/200 sold so far in a 300+ room

[TalismanRing]

NYC Local (Regal) (5pm)

 

Moonfall  - 5/1242

Jackass  - 31/602   (28 of 31 are the first show)

[XXR & Friends]

Thinking around $27-31M OW for Jackass and $11-14M for Moonfall.

[Pinacolada]

48 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

Thinking around $27-31M OW for Jackass and $11-14M for Moonfall.

That would be fantastic for Jackass

[XXR & Friends]

20 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

That would be fantastic for Jackass

 

Yea I could be high. Information is limited of course. Using @el sid estimation vs GBA (which did $44M) and accounting for fewer walk ups. Maybe I didn't account enough and it's actually $22-25M. I feel confident in over $20M at least. 

[21C]

https://www.mediaplaynews.com/omicron-surge-impacts-movie-business-with-smaller-theater-audiences/

 

Quote

 

The best bet to shake off Omicron fears and have a strong box office performance is The Batman. The latest Dark Knight flick — starring Robert Pattinson and set to come out on March 4 – looks poised to drive fans to the theater. Of more than 1,000 respondents who said they are interested in seeing The Batman, 61% said they prefer to see it in a movie theater — the highest percentage of any major film coming out in the next few months. 

 

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Right now it’s looking like mid-teens for the Jeff Tremaine-directed Jackass Forever at No. 1 in 3,590 theaters. The movie is tracking with males under 25, however, younger females are showing some decent heat as well.

 

Roland Emmerich’s independently financed $146M sci-fi disaster movie Moonfall starring Halle Berry, Patrick Wilson, Michael Pena, John Bradley, Donald Sutherland, Wenwen Yu, and Charlie Plummer with debut in 3,400 theaters. Lionsgate took domestic for a low eight-figure MG and they’re on the hook for P&A which is at a minimum a $30M+ spend. Exhibition, I hear, is seeing $8M-$11M, and if the movie overperforms, it’s in the $13M-$15M range. Males and females under 25 have the most interest, but really older guys are the core quad here

 

 

[filmlover]

King Richard is coming back to a lot of theaters near me this weekend for 1-2 shows a day. Oscar nominations next Tuesday means that we can expect whatever gets nominated to return (West Side Story and Licorice Pizza are the only movies in serious contention for Best Picture that are still theater exclusive at this point) and the fact there's gonna be little of note between now and the ceremony on March 27 (with arguably the biggest threat out of everything arriving the first weekend of March) means they should be around for a while.

[excel1]

2 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Right now it’s looking like mid-teens for the Jeff Tremaine-directed Jackass Forever at No. 1 in 3,590 theaters. The movie is tracking with males under 25, however, younger females are showing some decent heat as well.

 

Roland Emmerich’s independently financed $146M sci-fi disaster movie Moonfall starring Halle Berry, Patrick Wilson, Michael Pena, John Bradley, Donald Sutherland, Wenwen Yu, and Charlie Plummer with debut in 3,400 theaters. Lionsgate took domestic for a low eight-figure MG and they’re on the hook for P&A which is at a minimum a $30M+ spend. Exhibition, I hear, is seeing $8M-$11M, and if the movie overperforms, it’s in the $13M-$15M range. Males and females under 25 have the most interest, but really older guys are the core quad here

 

 

 

How the hell did they get $146m for that ?

[excel1]

3 hours ago, 21C said:

https://www.mediaplaynews.com/omicron-surge-impacts-movie-business-with-smaller-theater-audiences/

 

 

 

$250m+ incoming.

 

In presales.

[filmlover]

12 minutes ago, excel1 said:

 

How the hell did they get $146m for that ?

It was almost entirely funded by non-US studios. Who knows, maybe Chinese productions is what Emmerich will be forced to make going forward if he wants to maintain a feasible career after a dozen years worth of bombs.

[Eric is Anxious]

On 1/31/2022 at 11:01 PM, Eric Knoxville said:

Jackass Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Countingb

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	29	277	4304	6.44%

 

Comp

0.374x of The Suicide Squad (1.53M)

1.787x of Free Guy T-3 (3.93M)

0.347x of Scream T-3 (1.21M)

 

Yeah it's kinda hard to find good comps for this tbh. If anybody has suggestions, that would be great.

Jackass Forever Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	37	336	5343	6.29%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 59

 

Comp

0.374x of The Suicide Squad T-2 (1.53M)

1.507x of Free Guy T-2 (3.31M)

0.260x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife T-2 (1.17M)

0.315x of Scream T-2 (1.1M)

 

Yeah, I'm not sure 20M+ is happening. The tracking in the teens seems legit.