The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Bigscrubnus]

10 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Is it a less passionate review pushing even more people to actual weekend than usual for JWD? 

The reviews aren’t even out 

[WrathOfHan]

20 minutes ago, Yandereprime101189 said:

Elvis might be big. I have a feeling it will be. Hell, the trailers make me want to  go out and see it.

Everything I've seen indicates 40M minimum. Once we get closer to release I would not be surprised if 60M is in reach.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Elvis updated from last Wednesday (day 1 of sales)

 

AMC DOLBY FAN EVENT- 70 (+44)

 

Thursday

AMC: (3)

DOLBY- 5 (0)

7 (3)

CINEMARK (1)

510 (1), 9 (0)

 

Friday

AMC: (6)

DOLBY- 630 (2)

3 (0), 7 (4)

CINEMARK (6)

11 (0), 240 (1), 620 (5), 10 (0)

 

Nothing to write home about here besides the dolby event

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-24 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	163	24356	24424	68	0.28%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

68

 

Day One Comps

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	34.17		199	199		0/104	15788/15987	1.24%		9196	0.74%		1.54m
Sonic 2	37.36		182	182		0/73	11083/11265	1.62%		5847	1.16%		2.34m

 

Regal:        5/5129  [0.10% sold]
Matinee:    0/2080  [0.00% | 0.00% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

How'd I get talked into this, again?  I blame @Shawn, personally.

 

Anyway, even though I know this is gonna be backloaded as all heck, and it's 24+ days of presales, this still seems a little on the soft side for a start.  Very likely to just compile this on my home sheet nightly and only start posting it here when it gets interesting.  In for a penny, in for a pound though, so I will at least be tracking it nightly on my home sheet even if I don't report it here.

 

 

 

Minions 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	165	25079	25200	121	0.48%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	776
Total Seats Sold Today	53

 

Day Two Comps

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	48.79		49	248		0/108	16447/16695	1.49%		9196	1.32%		2.20m
Sonic 2	56.02		34	216		0/73	11049/11265	1.92%		5847	2.07%		3.50m

 

Regal:        5/5129  [0.10% sold]
Matinee:    0/2080  [0.00% | 0.00% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

A fairly decent day even without the handful of group sales I saw (three which accounted for 29 tickets of the 53 sold today).  Thus a super quick report.  Still most likely to switch to a twice a week or once a week until it heats up.  But it did relatively well today, and I figured I should note it since it was pretty anemic yesterday.

[Porthos]

Lightyear Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 and counting

***NOW CORRECTED***

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	131	16457	16852	395	2.34%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

395

 

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GB:A	198.49		199	199		0/104	15788/15987	1.24%		3034	13.02%		8.93m
Sonic 2	217.03		182	182		0/73	11083/11265	1.62%		3951	10.00%		13.56m
SC	71.30		554	554		0/92	15096/15650	3.54%		5847	6.76%		6.27m

 

 

Wednesday Sales:      150/1325 [11.32% sold] [+150 tickets]
Thursday Sales:       245/15527 [1.58% sold] [+245 tickets]
    
Regal:        28/3441  [0.81% sold]
Matinee:    12/1684  [0.71% | 4.90% of all tickets sold]

 

Edited June 16, 2022 by Porthos
I AM AN EFFIN' MORON IS THE REASON FOR THE EDIT!!!! - major sheet error corrected

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	281	26773	32836	6063	18.46%

 

Total Showings Added Today	57
Total Seats Added Today	4904
Total Seats Sold Today	795

 

T-3 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	119.02		469	5094		0/193	22219/27313	18.65%		9196	65.93%		16.45m
SC	221.20		335	2741		0/156	19111/21852	12.54%		5847	103.69%		19.47m
NTTD	322.33		178	1881		0/157	21272/23153	8.12%		3737	162.24%		19.98m
Dune	402.32		173	1507		0/92	11672/13179	11.43%		2915	207.99%		20.52m
TG:M	78.19		624	7754		1/324	33685/41439	18.71%		11474	52.84%		15.06m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-3 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	273.34		257	2063		0/122	15198/17261	11.95%		4407	127.96%		20.32m
JWD (adj)	---		702	5639		0/255	23797/29436	19.16%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: Both the F9 and the BW comp have been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during pre-sale runs of those films (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.70414x JW2 at the same sources of tracking at T-3 [23.47m adj]
JW3 = 3.45105x KotM at the same sources of tracking at T-3 [19.57m adj]
JW3 = 0.9292x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-3 [19.23m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:      1043/8106  [12.87% sold]
Matinee:    367/2120  [17.31% | 6.05% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Yep.  Sacramento likes its dinos, alright.

 

Jurassic World Dominion Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	288	26655	33514	6859	20.47%

 

Total Showings Added Today	7
Total Seats Added Today	678
Total Seats Sold Today	796

 

T-2 Unadjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	118.26		706	5800		0/241	25079/30879	18.78%		9196	74.59%		16.35m
SC	209.18		490	3279		0/183	21325/24604	13.33%		5847	117.31%		18.41m
NTTD	307.58		349	2230		0/176	22255/24485	9.11%		3737	183.54%		19.07m
MoM	41.39		1182	16572		0/383	28323/44895	36.91%		2915	235.30%		14.90m
TG:M	78.74		957	8711		2/344	34293/43004	20.26%		11474	59.78%		15.17m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Jurassic World: Dominon's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-2 Adjusted Comp

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	259.15		397	2460		0/143	15720/18180	13.53%		4407	144.66%		19.27m
JWD (adj)	---		736	6375		0/259	23386/29761	21.42%		---	---		---

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  JWD (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: Both the F9 and the BW comp have been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during pre-sale runs of those films (what would normally be the comp/0.955).

 

***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***

JW3 = 1.61711x JW2 at the same sources of tracking at T-2 [22.27m adj]
JW3 = 3.40929x KotM at the same sources of tracking at T-2 [19.33m adj]
JW3 = 0.9142x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-2 [18.92m adj]

NOTE: Comp has been adjusted downward by 10% to account for differences in comping in Sacto from 2018/19 to 2022.

 

Regal:      1178/8248  [14.28% sold]
Matinee:    414/2182  [18.97% | 6.04% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

The mixed social embargo reactions felt its bite here even in Sacto.  In fact, a lot of the sales were from those showings added yesterday.  Running really late so other thoughts will just have to wait.

 

NB:::

 

I did take Dune out of the comp box (more adult tickets sold, probably, and PLF skewing) and put in MoM in its place (more kid friendly and probably around a similar PLF and 3D penetration).  May add FB3 on day of release, but for now it isn't noticeably different from other comps.

Edited June 8, 2022 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

The dark magic lives. 

Tho we need Sacramento to be prophet and not last moment match with actuals. 👀 @Porthos 

[Mulder]

I feel like as long as its above FK's preview gross it's fine, but if it falls below it like one of Porthos' projections....

[charlie Jatinder]

BTW that 125M projection that had meltdown in thread was a bit low, but not like TGM low. 

[Porthos]

35 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

The dark magic lives. 

Tho we need Sacramento to be prophet and not last moment match with actuals. 👀 @Porthos 

 

Oh, I think Sacto (and Denver) was fairly prophetic on TGM.   Just like all prophecies, though, the art is in the interpretation. 👍

 

(after all, what prophet worth their salt is straightforward and transparent? You get kicked out of Oracle School if you make it too easy )

[ThomasNicole]

Overall i though Lightyear presales are decent, but not astonishing.

 

With that said, while Lightyear awareness is pretty good, i think the presales started very random, so maybe that's why. 

 

The premiere is later today, with social embargo dropping tomorrow, which could help. 

 

I do think the proximity of sales with JW release also isn't a good decision. But overall i still think the 90M Shawn predict is a reasonable number.

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Oh, I think Sacto (and Denver) was fairly prophetic on TGM.   Just like all prophecies, though, the art is in the interpretation. 👍

 

(after all, what prophet worth their salt is straightforward and transparent? You get kicked out of Oracle School if you make it too easy )

I swear it's like your spell realized it was over indexing and decided things had to be normalized.

[M37]

9 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	395	186	0	6	0
Seats Added	44,200	20,751	0	508	0
Seats Sold	16,191	12,055	8,750	6,658	6,123
6/7/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	428	4,944	132,107	833,943	15.84%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	3	25	123	281
ATP
$17.13

 

 

Jurassic World: Dominion Comps
	Top Gun: Maverick		The Batman		Dr. Strange MoM		Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-1	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
T-2	$14.1	$13.2	$10.0	$9.5	$10.3	$10.8	$10.9
T-3	$14.1	$13.2	$9.6	$9.2	$9.8	$10.4	$10.6
T-4	$14.0	$13.1	$9.4	$8.9	$9.4	$10.0	$10.2
T-5	$13.8	$12.9	$9.0	$8.5	$9.1	$9.6	$9.9
T-6	$13.8	$12.9	$8.7	$8.2	$8.7	$9.3	$9.6
T-7	$13.8	$12.9	$8.4	$7.9	$8.4	$8.9	$9.3
T-8	$13.9	$13.0	$8.1	$7.7	$8.3	$8.8	$9.2
T-9	$13.8	$12.9	$7.9	$7.5	$8.1	$8.6	$9.0
T-10	$13.9	$13.0	$7.8	$7.3	$8.0	$8.5	$8.9
T-11	$13.9	$13.1	$7.6	$7.2	$7.8	$8.3	$8.8
T-12	$14.0	$13.2	$7.5	$7.1	$7.7	$8.2	$8.7
T-13	$14.2	$13.4	$7.5	$7.1	$7.6	$8.1	$8.6

 

Its surprising - at least to me - how much the JWD sales are pacing along with Top Gun 2, given the audience makeup is expected to be very different

 

However, using just the Thursday sales for TG2, excluding the EA and investor, the ratio is 1.13x rather than 0.73x. If Thursday alone was ~$14.8M ($19.4-3.8-0.8), the TG2 comp suggests $16.7M (unweighted) ... but TG2 had an atypical distribution in sales which probably doesn't repeat here

[WrathOfHan]

8 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Everything I've seen indicates 40M minimum. Once we get closer to release I would not be surprised if 60M is in reach.

Since Reddit thinks this is based on data, I'm going by anecdotal evidence  Sales are strong everywhere I look

[YM!]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Since Reddit thinks this is based on data, I'm going by anecdotal evidence  Sales are strong everywhere I look

Han the Analysis God.

[Eric is Quiet]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Since Reddit thinks this is based on data, I'm going by anecdotal evidence  Sales are strong everywhere I look

...excuse me?

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Eric the Last Dinosaur said:

...excuse me?

 

[Eric is Quiet]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

Hey if any of you Redditors reading this are able to find a way for me to meet Timothee, that would be soooooooo nice 😇

[AJG]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

 

This reminds me when a post from @Olive was quoted in Forbes.

[CJohn]

16 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

BOT -> Reddit -> BOT