The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Grebacio]

43 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Personally I am thinking 170/425 or so.

220/605

[ringedmortality]

69/420

[AnDr3s]

less than the first

[XXR & Friends]

43 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Yeah, I remember how it went with Love & Thunder and JW3. I will stick with my number for now. Marketing and reviews will dictate if I change it or not.

 

21 minutes ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Well if BP also gets poor reception then the predictions fo a weak OW will indeed go 3 for 3. 

Every prediction I make is on the basis of an “A” Cinemascore or rough equivalent. Sure, if BPWF is another B+ then I’d drop my OW down 15-20% and my total down 20-25%.

[Eric the Minion]

Guys, we have a Black Panther thread

[Eric the Minion]

Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	44	30	5006	0.60%

 

Comp

0.182x of Boss Baby 2 T-3 (238K)

0.168x of Jungle Cruise T-3 (452K)

0.732x of Addams Family 2 T-3 (402K)

2.143x of Ron's Gone Wrong T-3 (514K)

0.177x of Encanto T-3 (266K)

0.429x of The Bad Guys T-3 (493K)

 

Dang...Endgame's sweating mah bois

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Eric Odinson said:

Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	44	30	5006	0.60%

 

Comp

0.182x of Boss Baby 2 T-3 (238K)

0.168x of Jungle Cruise T-3 (452K)

0.732x of Addams Family 2 T-3 (402K)

2.143x of Ron's Gone Wrong T-3 (514K)

0.177x of Encanto T-3 (266K)

0.429x of The Bad Guys T-3 (493K)

 

Dang...Endgame's sweating mah bois

[ringedmortality]

I'm surprised this didn't go the way of Rumble.

[Eric the Minion]

Where the Crawdads Sing Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	39	194	4234	4.58%

 

Comp

1.311x of Dear Evan Hansen T-3 (1.05M)

1.366x of West Side Story T-3 (1.09M)

1.311x of Death on the Nile T-3 (1.44M)

3.031x of Marry Me T-3 (1.59M)

0.995x of Dog T-3 (1.25M)

0.374x of The Lost City T-3 (1.22M)

0.478x of Downton Abbey 2 T-3 (908K)

0.359x of Elvis T-3 (1.25M)

 

I know that Philly's a weird market and this movie is pretty darn White^TM, but this seems really soft, especially because I'm assuming the book's fanbase will probably rush out to see it right away. Hope to be proven wrong of course.

[Eric the Minion]

On 7/10/2022 at 10:52 PM, Eric Odinson said:

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	359	13040	2.75%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 11

 

Comp

0.415x of F9 T-11 (2.95M)

1.726x of Space Jam 2 T-11 (22.61M)
0.955x of Halloween Kills T-11 (4.63M)

1.075x of Scream T-11 (3.76M)

Nope Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	65	391	13040	3.00%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 32

 

Comp

0.439x of F9 T-10 (3.12M)

1.464x of Space Jam 2 T-10 (19.18M)

0.873x of Halloween Kills T-10 (4.23M)

1.032x of Scream T-10 (3.61M)

[Porthos]

On 7/11/2022 at 12:46 AM, Porthos said:

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	86	13286	13691	405	2.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

21

 

T-11 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	110.96		14	365		0/81	13587/13952	2.62%		2352	17.22%		4.55m
LTBC	34.64		107	1169		0/156	24909/26078	4.48%		7712	5.25%		4.02m
NTTD	46.23		64	876		0/134	20340/21216	4.13%		3737	10.84%		2.87m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

T-11 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-11	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	36.85		59	1080		0/79	11335/12415	8.70%		4407	9.03%		2.74m
Nope (adj)	—		18	398		0/72	11082/11480	3.47%		—	—		—

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Nope (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:      77/3959  [1.94% sold]
Matinee:    17/859  [1.98% | 4.20% of all tickets sold]

 

Nope Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	86	13221	13691	470	3.43%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

65

 

T-10 Unadjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS	121.13		23	388		0/82	13689/14077	2.76%		2352	19.98%		4.97m
LTBC	37.24		93	1262		0/156	24816/26078	4.84%		7712	6.09%		4.32m
NTTD	53.65		64	876		0/134	20340/21216	4.13%		3737	12.58%		3.33m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Nope's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-10 Adjusted Comps

	%		Sold T-10	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
F9	40.37		62	1142		0/79	11275/12417	9.20%		4407	10.46%		3.00m
Nope (adj)	—		63	461		0/72	11019/11480	4.02%		—	—		—

ADJUSTMENT NOTE:  Nope (adj) is the seats sold that does not include theaters that had unreliable data in their seat maps that that point in F9's track.

COMP NOTE: The F9 comp has been adjusted to reflect the absence of Ontario theaters in the DOM market during F9's pre-sale run (what would normally be the comp/0.955)

 

Regal:     77/3959  [1.94% sold]
Matinee:    17/859  [1.98% | 3.62% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

There were a couple of obvious group sales which greatly inflated the totals.  Still, sales are sales.  Maybe finally starting to pick up a tad.

Edited July 12, 2022 by Porthos

[vale9001]

Do you think readers care about reviews when it's about their favourite book? 😄

It's like saying critics can stop 50 shades, twilight or Harry Potter. 

 

Plus Crawdads target are women/oldest women. Since where women cares about critics?. They can say their favourite movie of all time is something panned by critics like Ghost and they don't give a f.. It's a common thing for women and young women  having  the mainstream (men) journalists and critics throwing mud to their favourite romantic movies or comedies. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

22 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Crawdads	T-3	Jax	6	18	31	130	1,884	6.90%
		Phx	5	15	11	51	1,833	2.78%
		Ral	7	22	51	255	2,101	12.14%
	Total		18	55	93	436	5,818	7.49%
Crawdads (EA)	T-2	Jax	1	1	12	48	86	55.81%
	Total		1	1	12	48	86	55.81%
Easter Sunday	T-24	Jax	6	15	2	5	2,232	0.22%
		Phx	3	9	0	1	1,134	0.09%
		Ral	7	16	0	4	1,976	0.20%
	Total		16	40	2	10	5,342	0.19%
Mrs. Harris	T-3	Jax	2	4	6	6	200	3.00%
		Phx	2	4	5	5	190	2.63%
		Ral	3	5	12	12	454	2.64%
	Total		7	13	23	23	844	2.73%
Nope	T-10	Jax	7	50	5	104	8,422	1.23%
		Phx	6	20	8	174	4,344	4.01%
		Ral	8	25	13	146	3,411	4.28%
	Total		21	95	26	424	16,177	2.62%
Paws of Fury	T-3	Jax	6	24	2	12	2,292	0.52%
		Phx	5	16	2	18	1,628	1.11%
		Ral	7	20	1	24	1,984	1.21%
	Total		18	60	5	54	5,904	0.91%

 

Added Mrs. Harris for opening week.  Only 13 shows in my regions but most have a ticket or two sold.

 

Crawdads T-3 comps

 - Elvis - missed

 - NTTD - missed

 - Dune - .37x (1.886m)

 - Uncharted - .645x (2.39m)

 - Black Phone - missed

 - Halloween Kills - .508x (2.46m)

 - Ghostbusters - .477x (1.98m)

 

Really liking the pace on Crawdads.  I don't love that Raleigh is over 50% share of the sales, but it tracks for movies like this.  Respect (54.7%), In the Heights (53.97%) and Downton (47.91%) were all heavily concentrated in Raleigh compared to the other regions.  They also all came in much lower than my comps suggested.  I'll keep that in mind when making my projections later this week.

 

Paws of Fury T-3 comps

 - Bad Guys - .563x (647k)

 - Peter Rabbit - .62x (559k)

 - Paw Patrol (Fri) - .128x (580k)

 - Encanto - .283x (424k)

 

Thinking with it being summer maybe we'll see a very late rush on Wed/Thu.  Maybe comps will get to 750k in the end?

 

Mrs. Harris T-3 comps

 - Stillwater - .885x (248k)

 - Respect - .359x (233k)

 - House of Gucci - .105x (136k)

 

Nope T-10 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .896x (3.72m)

 - NTTD - .898x (4.67m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.4x (5.76m)

 - F9 - .525x (3.73m)

 - Morbius - .69x (3.94m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Crawdads	T-2	Jax	6	18	32	162	1,884	8.60%
		Phx	5	18	16	67	2,340	2.86%
		Ral	7	24	84	339	2,337	14.51%
	Total		18	60	132	568	6,561	8.66%
Crawdads (EA)	T-1	Jax	1	1	5	53	86	61.63%
	Total		1	1	5	53	86	61.63%
Easter Sunday	T-23	Jax	6	15	0	5	2,232	0.22%
		Phx	3	9	0	1	1,134	0.09%
		Ral	7	16	0	4	1,976	0.20%
	Total		16	40	0	10	5,342	0.19%
Mrs. Harris	T-2	Jax	2	4	3	9	200	4.50%
		Phx	2	4	0	5	190	2.63%
		Ral	3	4	5	17	401	4.24%
	Total		7	12	8	31	791	3.92%
Nope	T-9	Jax	7	50	8	112	8,422	1.33%
		Phx	6	20	17	191	4,344	4.40%
		Ral	8	26	22	168	3,502	4.80%
	Total		21	96	47	471	16,268	2.90%
Paws of Fury	T-2	Jax	6	24	5	17	2,292	0.74%
		Phx	5	16	5	23	1,628	1.41%
		Ral	6	16	4	28	1,766	1.59%
	Total		17	56	14	68	5,686	1.20%

 

It's probably not a good thing if a movie is having shows taken away just a few days before opening, but that's what happened to Paws of Fury.  Maybe they'll reappear tomorrow.  Another big day for Crawdads is keeping me hopeful for a breakout.  Will we get a $2m preview?

 

Crawdads T-2 comps

 - Elvis - .764x (2.45m)

 - Dune - .377x (1.92m)

 - Uncharted - .73x (2.7m)

 - Black Phone - 1.775x (4.615m)

 - Halloween Kills - .51x (2.47m)

 - Ghostbusters - .521x (2.16m)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 5.21x (3.23m)

 - West Side Story - 3.92x (3.13m)

 - Death on the Nile - 2.78x (3.06m)

 - Marry Me - 4.86x (2.55m)

 - Dog - 6.53x (8.23m)

 - Lost City - 1.63x (4.07m)

 - Downton + EA - .56x (1.01m)

 

Paws of Fury T-2 comps

 - Bad Guys - .567x (651k)

 - Peter Rabbit - .654x (588k)

 - Paw Patrol (Fri) - .116x (523k)

 - Encanto - .281x (421k)

 - Ron's Gone Wrong - 3.78x (907k)

 

Mrs. Harris T-2 comps

 - Stillwater - .969x (271k)

 - Respect - .437x (283k)

 - House of Gucci - .101x (131k)

 - Spencer - .775x

 

Nope T-9 comps

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - NTTD - .894x (4.65m)

 - Suicide Squad - 1.49x (6.11m)

 - F9 - .545x (3.87m)

 - Morbius - .71x (4.06m)

[charlie Jatinder]

On 7/8/2022 at 2:01 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Where the Crawdads Sing Harkins T-7 Days

Day	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Early Access	5	731	128	17.51%	$1,617	$12.63
Thursday	95	16,046	147	0.92%	$1,686	$11.47
Total	100	16,777	275	1.64%	$3,303	$12.01

 

Hmm. Better than The Black Phone was at T-6 i.e. 203. $2.5M previews can happen.

Where the Crawdads Sing Harkins T-3 Days

Day	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Early Access	5	731	291	39.81%	$3,638	$12.50
Thursday	96	16,175	432	2.67%	$4,804	$11.12
Total	101	16,906	723	4.28%	$8,442	$11.68

 

Comps

1.497x of The Black Phone - $4.49M

0.310x of Elvis - $1.15M

 

TBP exploded on last day, so $2.5M is more likely.

Edited July 12, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-10	Nope	PLF	14	116	116	3,670	3.16%	$15.43	$1,789.47
		Standard	15	45	45	1,782	2.53%	$10.44	$470.02
	Nope Total		29	161	161	5,452	2.95%	$14.03	$2,259.49

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-10	Nope	N	20	129	129	3,846	3.35%	$14.95	$1,929.02
		Y	9	32	32	1,606	1.99%	$10.33	$330.47
	Total		29	161	161	5,452	2.95%	$14.03	$2,259.49
T-3	Crawdads	N	20	129	129	2,060	6.26%	$12.39	$1,597.73
		Y	10	47	47	1,036	4.54%	$8.56	$402.16
	Total		30	176	176	3,096	5.68%	$11.36	$1,999.89
T-3	Mrs. Harris	N	4	12	12	276	4.35%	$12.99	$155.88
	Total		4	12	12	276	4.35%	$12.99	$155.88
T-3	Paws of Fury	N	18	6	6	1,798	0.33%	$12.27	$73.62
		Y	9	8	8	899	0.89%	$8.80	$70.36
	Total		27	14	14	2,697	0.52%	$10.28	$143.98

 

Getting right back on schedule with three new releases this week and starting to track Nope.  These combine for 90 shows while Thor was averaging like 240 per day over the weekend.  

 

Crawdads T-3 comp

 - Northman - 1.676x (2.26m)

 

Paws of Fury T-3 comp

 - The Bad Guys - .378x (435k)

 

Nope T-10 comps

 - TG2 - .093x (1.37m)

 - FB3 - .352x (2.11m)

 

Bad Guys is probably the only actual comp I have; just putting what I can find for the others.

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-9	Nope	PLF	14	5	121	3,670	3.30%	$15.53	$1,879.32
		Standard	15	2	47	1,782	2.64%	$10.44	$490.58
	Total		29	7	168	5,452	3.08%	$14.11	$2,369.90

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-2	Crawdads	N	22	46	175	2,278	7.68%	$12.19	$2,134.06
		Y	10	25	72	1,036	6.95%	$8.77	$631.08
	Total		32	71	247	3,314	7.45%	$11.19	$2,765.14
T-2	Mrs. Harris	N	3	0	12	205	5.85%	$12.99	$155.88
	Total		3	0	12	205	5.85%	$12.99	$155.88
T-2	Paws of Fury	N	18	11	17	1,714	0.99%	$11.16	$189.67
		Y	9	0	8	857	0.93%	$8.80	$70.36
	Total		27	11	25	2,571	0.97%	$10.40	$260.03
T-9	Nope	N	20	7	136	3,846	3.54%	$15.00	$2,039.43
		Y	9	0	32	1,606	1.99%	$10.33	$330.47
	Total		29	7	168	5,452	3.08%	$14.11	$2,369.90

 

Crawdads T-2 comp

 - Northman - 1.885x (2.545m)

 - Downton - 1.515x (1.59m)

 

Paws of Fury T-2 comp

 - The Bad Guys - .329x (378k)

 

Nope T-9 comps

 - TG2 - .09x (1.32m)

 - FB3 - .321x (1.93m)

 

Bad Guys is probably the only actual comp I like; just putting what I can find for the others.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 7/8/2022 at 1:55 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Nope Harkins T-14 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
141	40,340	302	0.75%	$4,240	$14.04

 

+60 in 3 days. Probably around 500-600 at T-7 days. Let's see.

 

Comps

0.666x of Minions - $7.1M

0.331x of Shang Chi - $2.98M

 

A very bad comp but whatever, that's all I have. I guess take mid point of two for around $5M.

Nope Harkins T-10 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
141	41,499	366	0.88%	$5,183	$14.16

 

Comps

0.532x of Minions - $6M (adj for ATP)

~2.600x of Where the Crawdads Sing

Edited July 12, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

On 7/8/2022 at 2:06 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Paws of Fury Harkins T-7 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
97	15,505	22	0.14%	$230	$10.45

 

Woah. Doubled in 3 days.

Paws of Fury Harkins T-3 Days

Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
97	15,931	54	0.34%	$548	$10.15

 

Low. The only comparable number I have is The Bad Guys T-1.

Edited July 12, 2022 by charlie Jatinder

[CJohn]

At what time do the previews of Crawdads start?

[vale9001]

15 minutes ago, CJohn said:

At what time do the previews of Crawdads start?

3pm

[titanic2187]

2 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Crawdads	T-2	Jax	6	18	32	162	1,884	8.60%
		Phx	5	18	16	67	2,340	2.86%
		Ral	7	24	84	339	2,337	14.51%
	Total		18	60	132	568	6,561	8.66%
Crawdads (EA)	T-1	Jax	1	1	5	53	86	61.63%
	Total		1	1	5	53	86	61.63%
Easter Sunday	T-23	Jax	6	15	0	5	2,232	0.22%
		Phx	3	9	0	1	1,134	0.09%
		Ral	7	16	0	4	1,976	0.20%
	Total		16	40	0	10	5,342	0.19%
Mrs. Harris	T-2	Jax	2	4	3	9	200	4.50%
		Phx	2	4	0	5	190	2.63%
		Ral	3	4	5	17	401	4.24%
	Total		7	12	8	31	791	3.92%
Nope	T-9	Jax	7	50	8	112	8,422	1.33%
		Phx	6	20	17	191	4,344	4.40%
		Ral	8	26	22	168	3,502	4.80%
	Total		21	96	47	471	16,268	2.90%
Paws of Fury	T-2	Jax	6	24	5	17	2,292	0.74%
		Phx	5	16	5	23	1,628	1.41%
		Ral	6	16	4	28	1,766	1.59%
	Total		17	56	14	68	5,686	1.20%

 

Another big day for Crawdads is keeping me hopeful for a breakout.  Will we get a $2m preview?

 

Crawdads T-2 comps

 - Elvis - .764x (2.45m)

 - Dear Evan Hansen - 5.21x (3.23m)

 - West Side Story - 3.92x (3.13m)

 - Death on the Nile - 2.78x (3.06m)

 - Marry Me - 4.86x (2.55m)

 - Dog - 6.53x (8.23m)

 - Lost City - 1.63x (4.07m)

 

 

 

All movies targeting the similar demo are pointing to a healthy run, depending if young girls will be hooked by the YA-like of the marketing.