The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[babz06]

28 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Nothing has gone "wrong" really. For a movie completely devoid of star power (Eichner isn't even close to an A-lister and even considering the relative paucity of big name LGBTQ actors, the rest of the cast is really low-profile), $50M total always would've been a win.

Agreed. Eichner caters to a very niche audience. The Lost City is still the only comedy to cross the 30m threshold this year and it did that soley because of Bullock and Tatum.

Edited September 23, 2022 by babz06

[Cmasterclay]

Knocked Up, Forgetting Sarah Marshall, and even Trainwreck weren't exactly overflowing with star power when they dropped either, but the Apatow model of elevating a new star lead used to be 20m+ OW. For all intents and purposes this is the same style and same kind of campaign as those movies that in 2012 era were locks to be solid openers.

[grim22]

5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Knocked Up, Forgetting Sarah Marshall, and even Trainwreck weren't exactly overflowing with star power when they dropped either, but the Apatow model of elevating a new star lead used to be 20m+ OW. For all intents and purposes this is the same style and same kind of campaign as those movies that in 2012 era were locks to be solid openers.

Apatow you say... any relation to the actress from Euphoria?

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I still think Bros will beat tracking. Or at least hold very strong once WOM gets out. The Apatow brand still works. It has the LGBT narrative. And the reviews are quite good for a comedy. 

 

If it does flop, I think that can be traced back to Universal pushing the film out of August. Yes, the TIFF launch was nice but it would have cleaned up in August

 

[Eric the Minion]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

Apatow you say... any relation to the actress from Euphoria?

There was discourse on Twitter a couple months ago when some Euphoria stan learned Lexi's a nepotism baby. They said Maude was the daughter of Leslie Mann and "some movie director". These kids today really have no idea what we had back then and it's kind of terrifying

[Flopped]

3 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I still think Bros will beat tracking. Or at least hold very strong once WOM gets out. The Apatow brand still works. It has the LGBT narrative. And the reviews are quite good for a comedy. 

 

If it does flop, I think that can be traced back to Universal pushing the film out of August. Yes, the TIFF launch was nice but it would have cleaned up in August

 

If it flops its bc a mainstream audience will not go see a theatrical comedy about topping and bottoming and whatnot. 

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Knocked Up, Forgetting Sarah Marshall, and even Trainwreck weren't exactly overflowing with star power when they dropped either, but the Apatow model of elevating a new star lead used to be 20m+ OW. For all intents and purposes this is the same style and same kind of campaign as those movies that in 2012 era were locks to be solid openers.

Amy Schumer was having a major moment in the industry when Trainwreck came out (she earned an Emmy nomination the same week the movie was released). Billy Eichner isn't quite on that level, and while I find him more amusing than most, I can easily see how his Billy on the Street personality would get under a lot of people's skin, making the concept of spending two hours with him off-putting for a number of folks (that controversial Variety interview a few weeks ago probably didn't make him seem very likeable either).

[ringedmortality]

11 minutes ago, Eric from Progressive said:

There was discourse on Twitter a couple months ago when some Euphoria stan learned Lexi's a nepotism baby. They said Maude was the daughter of Leslie Mann and "some movie director". These kids today really have no idea what we had back then and it's kind of terrifying

 

If a kid is into movies they'd know who Apatow is. If all they care about is pop-culture/actors then there's no reason for them to know who directors are besides the obvious big names.

[Flopped]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Amy Schumer was having a major moment in the industry when Trainwreck came out (she earned an Emmy nomination the same week the movie was released). Billy Eichner isn't quite on that level, and while I find him more amusing than most, I can easily see how his Billy on the Street personality would get under a lot of people's skin, making the concept of spending two hours with him off-putting for a number of folks (that controversial Variety interview a few weeks ago probably didn't make him seem very likeable either).

Trainwreck is about a straight woman. There's that too. 

[Tinalera]

Smile

Taken Sept 23 (T-8 Thur, T-7 Fri)

SW/Toronto Ontario

	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	18	33	11	6198	6209	0.0017
Fri	6	24	17	6450	6467	0.0026

 

Comps

Thurs

x .0696 Nope(approx 62 thousand cdn) 830 thousand Can/US

x.0666 Bullet Train( 66 thousand cdn) (estimating a 1 Mil OD for Canada as the numbers seemed similar to Nope) 800 Thousand can/us

 

Friday

x.0939 Nope (approx 84 thousand cdn) 1.12 mil Can/US

x.0949 Bullet Train (approx 94 thousand)1.13 mil Can US

 

NOTE-

THE BT numbers I used I was approximating at 1 mil OD for Canada, it tracked almost same as Nope except maybe touch higher, so take the BT numbers as they are for education purposes lol

 

 

[Old Spice]

Preview showings for Black Adam starting to show up in the Salt Lake Valley. 17 screenings at the West Jordan Cinemark 24 XD, which is right in line with where TGM, Dominion, and Thor were.

[MattW]

9 hours ago, Tinalera said:

I will never not be intrigued when Openings for movie opening predictions that haven't/or barely started selling tickets. That whole thing of trends, observing numbers from trailers ect, combined with using past history to make a call on a movie that is over a month away-theres some really funky demo numbers/trends/math/magic/mojo combination going on to bring forth the numbers, always tickles me to see it.

I think box office pro originally was trying to use social media buzz as a secret sauce on top of normal early tracking data. I don't think it worked out for them but it seemed like a real possibility early on, 7-8 years ago.

 

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, A Star is Delayed said:

Preview showings for Black Adam starting to show up in the Salt Lake Valley. 17 screenings at the West Jordan Cinemark 24 XD, which is right in line with where TGM, Dominion, and Thor were.

Tf. Is it just because of lack of movies?

[filmlover]

39 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Tf. Is it just because of lack of movies?

I doubt it since the box office should be in a fairly healthy state by then (the next couple of weekends have easy double digit openers on them). Some multiplexes near me have a show running every 30 minutes. I think everyone who has been eager to write it off should chill for a moment, especially when WB is certain to send the marketing blitz into overdrive on Monday now that DWD is out.

[Joyous Legion]

50 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Tf. Is it just because of lack of movies?

Yes

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I doubt it since the box office should be in a fairly healthy state by then (the next couple of weekends have easy double digit openers on them). Some multiplexes near me have a show running every 30 minutes. I think everyone who has been eager to write it off should chill for a moment, especially when WB is certain to send the marketing blitz into overdrive on Monday now that DWD is out.

Halloween ends ~12M

Croc ~6M

Amsterdam maybe 4M

Smile perhaps 3M

Bros 2M?

DWD ~1M

TWK 3M

That is not what I’d call a fairly healthy state, certainly compared to holdovers  when TGM/JWD/TLT were coming out.

 

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Halloween ends ~12M

Croc ~6M

Amsterdam maybe 4M

Smile perhaps 3M

Bros 2M?

DWD ~1M

TWK 3M

That is not what I’d call a fairly healthy state, certainly compared to holdovers  when TGM/JWD/TLT were coming out.

 

Ticket to Paradise comes out the same weekend as Black Adam and is also guaranteed an opening in the teens. Three movies making over $10M on one weekend (that's assuming something like Lyle doesn't breakout and develops crazy staying power, not impossible in that movie's case if the reviews are solid and being the first family movie since July) is better than what we've seen for most weekends this year IMO.

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

Tf. Is it just because of lack of movies?

 

I also think it's just "lack of movies".  Similar thing happened with Joker a few years back.  Had far more screens than I was anticipating (even before the signs of breakout were occurring).  It's also happened a few other times in the meantime when there have been long stretches of barren wasteland, though I didn't take the time to remember the exact films for each and every instance.

 

This is the first "big" movie in quite a while (especially since Ends is gonna be day and date).  Not too surprising to me that theaters are seeing it as an unofficial soft re-launch for the movies.

Edited September 24, 2022 by Porthos

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

I also think it's just "lack of movies".  Similar thing happened with Joker a few years back.  Had far more screens than I was anticipating (even before the signs of breakout were occurring).  It's also happened a few other times in the meantime when there have been long stretches of barren wasteland, though I didn't take the time to remember the exact films for each and every instance.

 

This is the first "big" movie in quite a while (especially since Kills is gonna be day and date).  Not too surprising to me that theaters are seeing it as an unofficial soft re-launch for the movies.

This Halloween movie is titled "Ends." 

 

Feel like that's headed for an underperformance between day-and-date, the last movie rubbing a lot of people the wrong way, and reviews for this one probably not going to be very good either, even being the most high-profile horror movie for October this year.

[Joyous Legion]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Ticket to Paradise comes out the same weekend as Black Adam and is also guaranteed an opening in the teens. Three movies making over $10M on one weekend (that's assuming something like Lyle doesn't breakout and develops crazy staying power, not impossible in that movie's case if the reviews are solid and being the first family movie since July) is better than what we've seen for most weekends this year IMO.

Better than most this year -- yes. But much worse than June July specifically, where two of the screen allocation comps fell.

 

Admittedly it is actually quite similar to TGM wknd, with ticket playing the role of burgers and Halloween as the DS2 

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

This Halloween movie is titled "Ends." 

 

Brain fart (been a loooooooooooong day).

 

Fixed.