The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[AnDr3s]

17 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Awful two days. Not just US across World for some reason slowed badly.

the world cup is the only reason that made sense

[cooldude97]

Wonder if the nearly 3 and a half hour runtime is scaring off the normies

[Nero]

8 minutes ago, AnDr3s said:

the world cup is the only reason that made sense

Could be one of the reason. While others might not agree I think overpriced tickets could be another one. Prices are atleast 3x here for OW.

[Porthos]

On 12/12/2022 at 11:36 PM, Porthos said:

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	277	27377	32924	5547	16.85%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	73
Total Net Seats Added Today	5124
Total Net Seats Sold Today	453

 

T-3 Comp

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Dune	368.08		173	1507		0/92	11672/13179	11.43%		2915	190.29%		18.77m
Bats	81.95		748	6769		0/324	31752/38521	17.57%		21117	26.27%		17.70m
FB3	280.58		288	1977		0/193	24695/26672	7.41%		4456	124.48%		16.83m
TGM	71.54		624	7754		1/324	33685/41439	18.71%		11474	48.34%		13.78m
JWD	91.49		795	6063		0/281	26773/32836	18.46%		10966	50.58%		16.47m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:          1337/11268  [11.87% sold]
Matinee:         401/3462  [11.58% | 7.23% of all tickets sold]
3D:              3610/17858  [20.22% | 65.08% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:        2576/7439  [34.63% | 46.44% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

I do want to make one slight proviso out of the way, right off the bat.  Inexplicably, a couple of showtimes got shifted around tonight at a theater that put up its final set tonight, and in the process two showings that had sold 45 3D tickets got lost to the ether.  After about 30+ minutes of checking, I'm pretty sure it is legit and the theater in question just gone dun goofed up when it added more A2 showings tonight (the auditorium got shifted to a BP:WF showing at a similar time).  Maybe they'll notice their mistake and correct it tomorrow, or maybe not.

 

But even with those 45 other tickets that still just be a 500 tickets sold day.
 

I guess we now sit and see just how much those reviews (which look to be very good) help things in these last couple of days.

 

Avatar: The Way of Water Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	296	27849	34119	6270	18.38%

 

Total Showings Added Today	19
Total Seats Added Today	1195
Total Seats Sold Today	723

 

T-2 Comp

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
NTTD	281.17		349	2230		0/176	22255/24485	9.11%		3737	167.78%		17.43m
Dune	359.93		235	1742		0/109	13069/14811	11.76%		2915	215.09%		18.36m
Bats	79.19		1149	7918		0/326	30853/38771	20.42%		21117	29.69%		17.10m
TGM	71.98		957	8711		2/344	34293/43004	20.26%		11474	54.65%		13.86m
JWD	91.41		796	6859		0/288	26655/33514	20.47%		10966	57.18%		16.45m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Avatar 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       1498/11416  [13.12% sold]
Matinee:      452/3536  [12.78% | 7.21% of all tickets sold]
3D:           3978/18743  [21.22% | 63.44% of all tickets sold]
PLF 3D:      2751/7439  [36.98% | 43.88% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Decided to swap out FB3 for NTTD as I never really liked the FB3 comp (which over-performed here) and A2 looks to following a more adult-skewed film pre-sale pattern.  Don't like that NTTD will be before the latest round of ticket price hikes, but A2 having more kids tickets sold should help there.  NTTD's PLF penetration was aksually pretty solid at 44%, so that should help keep it in the right ballpark.  Still think Dune is gonna be the best when all is said and done.

 

Also, a reminder that both The Batman and Top Gun: Maverick had their Early Access screenings at T-2, which will skew both of their daily comps.  Just something to keep in mind over the next couple of days.

[Legion Again]

Prices, sure.

Runtime, sure.

3D, sure.

World Cup, why not.

 

But… the forbidden reasoning… 

Spoiler

Can’t just assume GA will show up to a sequel in numbers anything close to lightning in a bottle vfx zeitgeist original — no matter the director. Especially when the original has No Cultural Impact™️. And there is more internet/fan base interest in this than some realized, driving more PS heaviness and CBM pattern similarity relative to widespread  assumptions of massive late buying ga dynamic that applied to a very different movie ina  very different era.

 

Edited December 14, 2022 by Korra Legion

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Korra Legion said:

Prices, sure.

Runtime, sure.

3D, sure.

World Cup, why not.

 

But… the forbidden reasoning… 

  Hide contents

Can’t just assume GA will show up to a sequel in numbers anything close to lightning in a bottle vfx zeitgeist original — no matter the director. Especially when the original has No Cultural Impact™️. And there is more internet/fan base interest in this than some realized, driving more PS heaviness and CBM pattern similarity relative to widespread  assumptions of massive late buying have appeal

 

 

I mean, yes to even what you said in the spoiler box, but I think our Fearless Leader @Cap is absolutely right that booking ***FOUR HOURS*** during the holiday season is not a small ask.

(3.25 to 3.5 hours in-theater + travel time should be around 4 hours for most folks)

 

It's not just the runtime but when the movie is playing in the calendar.

 

Even RotK back in the day was hit a little by this (though there was also finale factor countering it).

Edited December 14, 2022 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

In some ways the relative success of the A1 rerelease (compared to say, NWH rerelease in similar time) should have been a canary in the coal mine as far as potential early buys from a dedicated base. 

[Borobudur]

Why not we collectively agree to wait until 2nd weekend to see if there is developing serious great legs before panic? If the first movie left no cultural phenomenon, then we should just treat this movie like every other original movie, right? 

[reddevil19]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

I mean, yes to even what you said in the spoiler box, but I think our Fearless Leader @Cap is absolutely right that booking ***FOUR HOURS*** during the holiday season is not a small ask.

(3.25 to 3.5 hours in-theater + travel time should be around 4 hours for most folks)

 

It's not just the runtime but when the movie is playing in the calendar.

 

Even RotK back in the day was hit a little by this (though there was also finale factor countering it).

Yep. To be honest, I personally may only get around to seeing it after the New Year (or, at best, after the 27th). Either myself or my bf have way too much going on and it just isn't easy to find those four hours. Add to this that it's hardly plot-driven with a massive desire to see what happens, as opposed to a visual spectacle that can easily wait for a couple of weeks, and, yeah... No rush. And since I can't commit to those four hours, I'm not buying in advance for any of its first 10 days either. 

 

It will obviously still be a huge opening but I have to imagine loads of people aren't in a rush. The question is whether this will catch on like the original, to the point of it playing big until mid-Jan, or if those people that aren't in a rush decide to skip it altogether. 

Edited December 14, 2022 by reddevil19

[Nikostar]

Things are not looking good. Hopefully today will pick up.

[Cap]

Super Super Quick Check In of my IMAX theater:

 

IMAX screen is dominating. They’re doing 3 showings on Thursday; 4 on FSSMT.

 

Interesting enough, it’s the SUNDAY 10:00AM showing “Few Seats Left” and The Saturday AND Sunday 2:30PM show is sold out/blocked out. 

Thursday is basically sold out (Aka only front and sides available), and the rest of the weekend follows a similar pattern of 

 

10:00AM: 50-60%
2:30 and 6:30PM: 80%+
10:30PM: 30-50%

 

Then we get to the non-IMAX tickets.  This is the breakdown total for the whole day:

 

39 Thursday 

63 Friday

87 Saturday 

40 Sunday 

0 Monday

13 Tuesday
 

I find the 2:30PM being the post popular showing telling. It makes sense for the run time AND you are getting like a $1.25 off from the 6:30PM show. 
 

And it is 100% supporting the “Disney and Jame Cameron told everyone to see it in IMAX, and they are waiting for IMAX while literally there are empty auditoriums running at the same time” narrative. There are more IMAX tickets for Monday currently than the rest of the 2D FSS weekend combine. 
 

 

[Cap]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

I mean, yes to even what you said in the spoiler box, but I think our Fearless Leader @Cap is absolutely right that booking ***FOUR HOURS*** during the holiday season is not a small ask.

(3.25 to 3.5 hours in-theater + travel time should be around 4 hours for most folks)

 

It's not just the runtime but when the movie is playing in the calendar.

 

Even RotK back in the day was hit a little by this (though there was also finale factor countering it).

I’m not saying you can’t do it. I’m saying you have to want to do it.

And if there is no urgency, in terms of “OMG THEY WIPED OUT HALF OF EXISTENCE AND HOW IS STEVE SURVIVE AND FIX THIS” combined with “WE NEED TO GO TO THE FIRST FIRST FIRST SHOWING BECAUSE IF SOMEONE SPOILERS STEVE’S FATE I WILL BE ALL KNIVES OUT”, then obvi folks will prioritize not only “Best Screen and Seats”, but “best time for all of my friends because this is a social event”. 
 

we also should remember that we are not really a good sample of hype/interest for films. we have gotten burned here several times before, most notably with Pika Pika. 
 

The folks on this board really like movies. So obviously, our height for things is elevated and we’re probably talking to people who share our interests.

 

It’s a lot different, asking a family to drag the kids away from the new toys for a four hour round-trip, instead of a 2 1/2 hour round-trip. 
 

it makes you think twice about that 10 PM showing, that’s not gonna get out at midnight, but it’s gonna get out at 2 o’clock in the morning.

 

not when I can just go next weekend… 

[JustLurking]

On one hand, the good news is that the film does have enough time on the premiums to just leg out on those if folks *really* just want those, and to have good seats on those, because nothing is actually coming out to take them from the film.

 

On the other, if people are really that bent up about getting those seats, that kind of will mean bad walk-ups, and in SK that is exactly what happened. So...that's not great.

[filmlover]

I always felt everyone shouldn't overlook the fact that this is 3 hours and 12 minutes long. That's a big commitment that takes out a nice portion of the day. It wouldn't be much of a surprise if this is more backloaded than many are anticipating since more people will have the time for such a long movie in the weeks ahead when they have time off.

[Eric is Anxious]

Quorum Updates

Puss in Boots T-7: 57.19% Awareness, 6.02 Interest

Cocaine Bear T-72: 26.56%, 5.44

Mummies T-72: 22.12%, 5.01

65 T-121: 7.07%, 5.39

Book Club 2: The Next Chapter T-149: 12.39%, 4.47

The Little Mermaid T-163: 55.61%, 6.18

Dune: Part Two T-324: 27.2%, 5.02

 

Avatar: The Way of Water T-2: 72.32% Awareness, 6.47 Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

Final Interest: 47% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 100M

Tentpole Interest: 67% chance of 100M

 

Babylon T-9: 28.83% Awareness, 5.09 Interest

Final Awareness: 7% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 43% chance of 10M

Original - High Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Original - High Interest: 25% chance of 10M

 

House Party T-30: 30.16% Awareness, 5.51 Interest

T-30 Awareness: 93% chance of 10M, 57% chance of 20M

T-30 Interest: 78% chance of 10M, 67% chance of 20M

Known IP Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 75% chance of 20M

Known IP Interest: 100% chance of 10M and 20M

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Avatar 2	T-2	Jax	5	84	166	1,958	11,195	17.49%
		Phx	7	115	186	1,589	16,203	9.81%
		Ral	8	80	222	1,790	9,445	18.95%
ATP: $16.16	Total		20	279	574	5,337	36,843	14.49%
Babylon	T-9	Jax	5	12	0	18	1,380	1.30%
		Phx	4	12	0	40	1,289	3.10%
		Ral	8	17	0	34	1,618	2.10%
	Total		17	41	0	92	4,287	2.15%
I Wanna Dance	T-9	Jax	5	15	7	33	1,454	2.27%
		Phx	4	13	0	29	1,277	2.27%
		Ral	9	25	6	58	2,579	2.25%
	Total		17	53	13	120	5,310	2.26%
M3GAN	T-23	Jax	5	20	0	5	1,758	0.28%
		Phx	4	11	0	9	1,327	0.68%
		Ral	7	14	0	10	1,817	0.55%
	Total		16	45	0	24	4,902	0.49%
Puss in Boots	T-8	Jax	6	31	4	26	3,261	0.80%
		Phx	6	41	0	12	5,391	0.22%
		Ral	6	35	4	58	4,087	1.42%
	Total		18	107	8	96	12,739	0.75%

 

Avatar 2 T-2 comps

 - Eternals - 1.769x (16.81m)

 - TG2 - .822x (15.87m)

 - JW3 - .911x (16.4m)

 - F9 - 3.08x (21.9m)

 - Ghostbusters - 4.89x (20.3m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 2.49x (14.92m)

 - Dune - 3.54x (18.06m)

 - Batman - .85x (14.97m)

 

ATP Adjusted

 - Eternals - 19.62m

 - JW3 - 17.85m

 - FB3 - 18.09m

 - Batman - 17.74m

 

Pretty bad day against all comps.  Personally feeling like we'll get something in the 18.5-19m range for previews.  

 

Puss in Boots T-8 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .187x (930k)

 - Minions 2 - .24x (2.58m)

 - Lyle Lyle - 5.65x (3.25m)

 - Super Pets - 1.352x (2.97m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-9 comps

 - Elvis - .421x (1.347m)

 - Easter Sunday - 4x (2m)

 - Respect - 4.615x (3m)

 

Babylon T-9 comps

 - Elvis - .323x (1.03m)

 - Bullet Train - .382x (1.28m)

 

M3GAN T-23 comps

 - Nope - .11x (705k)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Avatar 2	T-1	Jax	5	104	243	2,201	13,015	16.91%
		Phx	7	115	330	1,919	16,203	11.84%
		Ral	8	97	262	2,052	11,199	18.32%
ATP: $15.99	Total		20	316	835	6,172	40,417	15.27%
Babylon	T-8	Jax	5	12	-2	16	1,380	1.16%
		Phx	5	15	7	47	1,489	3.16%
		Ral	8	17	2	36	1,618	2.22%
	Total		18	44	7	99	4,487	2.21%
I Wanna Dance	T-8	Jax	5	15	2	35	1,454	2.41%
		Phx	5	17	0	29	1,451	2.00%
		Ral	9	25	0	58	2,579	2.25%
	Total		18	57	2	122	5,484	2.22%
M3GAN	T-22	Jax	5	20	0	5	1,758	0.28%
		Phx	4	11	0	9	1,327	0.68%
		Ral	7	14	0	10	1,817	0.55%
	Total		16	45	0	24	4,902	0.49%
Puss in Boots	T-7	Jax	6	53	0	26	5,228	0.50%
		Phx	6	48	1	13	5,995	0.22%
		Ral	6	36	11	69	4,216	1.64%
	Total		18	137	12	108	15,439	0.70%

 

Lots of new shows added for A2 and Puss in Boots

 

Avatar 2 T-1 comps

 - Eternals - 1.806x (17.16m)

 - TG2 - .821x (15.84m)

 - JW3 - .897x (16.14m)

 - F9 - 2.83x (20.09m)

 - Ghostbusters - 4.41x (18.28m)

 - NTTD - missed

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - 2.49x (14.94m)

 - Dune - 3.5x (17.85m)

 - Batman - .84x (14.79m)

 

ATP Adjusted

 - Eternals - 19.83m

 - JW3 - 17.38m

 - FB3 - 17.92m

 - Batman - 17.33m

 

Not too much change after a bad day yesterday.  Lowering a little to 18m expectation now.  

 

Puss in Boots T-7 comps

 - Sonic 2 - .196x (978k)

 - Minions 2 - .243x (2.61m)

 - Lyle Lyle - missed

 - Super Pets - 1.44x (3.17m)

 

I Wanna Dance T-8 comps

 - Elvis - .384x (1.23m)

 - Easter Sunday - 4.21x (2.1m)

 - Respect - 3.49x (2.27m)

 

Babylon T-8 comps

 - Elvis - .311x (996k)

 - Bullet Train - .407x (1.36m)

 - Amsterdam - 1.87x (1.03m)

 

M3GAN T-22 comps

 - Nope - .103x (656k)

[Dragoncaine]

So what are we looking at here, $130-150m domestic OW?

[M37]

23 hours ago, M37 said:

Preview Average Chart through T-3:

(Note: have removed all JWD data points as it no longer appears to be a good comp, and chart was getting cluttered anyway)

 

Without JWD, seems like $17M is the target, within a range of [15]16 - 18[19] - set expectations accordingly

 

However, one potential, optimistic scenario is that expansion of 2D showings will facilitate more late sales/walk-ups than the previous showing allotment was generating. I ran the numbers for the Tampa/St Pete market each of the last two days, but they really didn't have much added value in isolation, so didn't bother posting, but one trend that I do want to highlight

 

Here is the growth in tickets sold by format (shown on a log scale for ... reasons)

 

(the PLF 3D line is skewed a bit here due one location not putting IMAX shows on sale until ~10 days ago and playing catching up)

 

Can see that while the PLF sales have have lower growth rates which drag down the average, the 3D and especially 2D shows are adding tickets a much higher rate. It's almost as if we have to treat Avatwo as TWO films in one: the high demand and early purchased PLF, and the more walk-up/GA friendly 3D and 2D showings. That we're (likely) getting very good reviews and these added shows today could help push the Thursday sales up higher than the overall trajectory the last few days suggest

Averages through T-2

 

Really not a good Tuesday, both in terms of sales, and where the bar was set for reviews to help push people off the fence. 

 

Since T-14, sales overall have paced very similarly to TGM in Sacto ... which is a fairly tepid finish,  given how hot sales started in that market before cooling off at the end. That continued pace would project to only a ~30-35% additional increase between now and T-0. Since T-7, we're not quite at the lower growth rate of most high-volume CBMs, but also not all that far above it either. Probably at the point where $16M Thursday might be the more accurate target, and its honestly not clear if that number will even be reached without some momentum in the final days (though ATP could push it over)

 

We (i.e. the boards) are here:

[interiorgatordecorator]

7 hours ago, Borobudur said:

Why not we collectively agree to wait until 2nd weekend to see if there is developing serious great legs before panic? If the first movie left no cultural phenomenon, then we should just treat this movie like every other original movie, right? 

 

I cant comfortably predict anything over 5x legs, which probably kills any 800+ dreams thats why

Edited December 14, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[vafrow]

53 minutes ago, M37 said:

Averages through T-2

 

Really not a good Tuesday, both in terms of sales, and where the bar was set for reviews to help push people off the fence. 

 

Since T-14, sales overall have paced very similarly to TGM in Sacto ... which is a fairly tepid finish,  given how hot sales started in that market before cooling off at the end. That continued pace would project to only a ~30-35% additional increase between now and T-0. Since T-7, we're not quite at the lower growth rate of most high-volume CBMs, but also not all that far above it either. Probably at the point where $16M Thursday might be the more accurate target, and its honestly not clear if that number will even be reached without some momentum in the final days (though ATP could push it over)

 

We (i.e. the boards) are here:

 

It's looking like some unpleasant weather in the northeast tomorrow, which is not going to help the walk up crowd.

 

I'm in the greater Toronto area, and it's looking like freezing rain and snow. That's "stay home" weather unless you've got something urgent.

 

I'm not sure how it's manifesting a bit further south in NE in the States. A few degrees warmer and its just rain, but, also not ideal for walk ups.