The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Inceptionzq]

21 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Drafthouse [+5 days of sales]

 

T-3 Thursday(381 showings): 15360(+3826)/48131 ATP: $15.66

0.774x Black Panther WF T-3 (21.66M)

0.864x Thor L&T T-3 (25.06M)

0.662x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (23.85M)

2.36x Eternals T-3 (22.38M)

 

T-4 Friday(540 showings): 14900(+4406)/68924 ATP: $15.39

0.631x Black Panther WF T-4 (35.50M)

0.950x Thor L&T T-4 (38.52M)

0.673x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (36.83M)

2.31x Eternals T-4 (49.33M)

 

T-5 Saturday(551 showings): 15001(+4321)/69896 ATP: $14.78

0.667x Black Panther WF T-5 (37.46M)

1.03x Thor L&T T-5 (43.28M)

0.637x Doctor Strange MoM T-5 (36.84M)

2.33x Eternals T-5 (56.29M)

 

T-6 Sunday(505 showings): 7766(+2585)/64591 ATP: $14.19

0.587x Black Panther WF T-6 (24.04M)

0.878x Thor L&T T-6 (28.53M)

0.567x Doctor Strange MoM T-6 (22.06M)

1.98x Eternals T-6 (32.30M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Drafthouse

 

T-2 Thursday(417 showings): 16214(+854)/50450 ATP: $15.65

0.754x Black Panther WF T-2 (21.11M)

0.852x Thor L&T T-2 (24.72M)

0.631x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (22.72M)

2.27x Eternals T-2 (21.60M)

 

T-3 Friday(652 showings): 16449(+1549)/78939 ATP: $15.37

0.599x Black Panther WF T-3 (33.74M)

0.951x Thor L&T T-3 (38.57M)

0.636x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (34.80M)

2.20x Eternals T-3 (46.85M)

 

T-4 Saturday(663 showings): 16253(+1252)/80005 ATP: $14.78

0.656x Black Panther WF T-4 (36.81M)

0.994x Thor L&T T-4 (41.87M)

0.593x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (34.28M)

2.25x Eternals T-4 (54.24M)

 

T-5 Sunday(616 showings): 8512(+746)/75106 ATP: $14.19

0.566x Black Panther WF T-5 (23.17M)

0.839x Thor L&T T-5 (27.27M)

0.536x Doctor Strange MoM T-5 (20.85M)

1.94x Eternals T-5 (31.61M)

[Tinalera]

11 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Drafthouse

 

T-2 Thursday(417 showings): 16214(+854)/50450 ATP: $15.65

0.754x Black Panther WF T-2 (21.11M)

0.852x Thor L&T T-2 (24.72M)

0.631x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (22.72M)

2.27x Eternals T-2 (21.60M)

 

T-3 Friday(652 showings): 16449(+1549)/78939 ATP: $15.37

0.599x Black Panther WF T-3 (33.74M)

0.951x Thor L&T T-3 (38.57M)

0.636x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (34.80M)

2.20x Eternals T-3 (46.85M)

 

T-4 Saturday(663 showings): 16253(+1252)/80005 ATP: $14.78

0.656x Black Panther WF T-4 (36.81M)

0.994x Thor L&T T-4 (41.87M)

0.593x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (34.28M)

2.25x Eternals T-4 (54.24M)

 

T-5 Sunday(616 showings): 8512(+746)/75106 ATP: $14.19

0.566x Black Panther WF T-5 (23.17M)

0.839x Thor L&T T-5 (27.27M)

0.536x Doctor Strange MoM T-5 (20.85M)

1.94x Eternals T-5 (31.61M)

Looking at these and others, the showing that the only mcu film that's its going over 100 percent, its sobering. My personal speculation is that if Disney is seeing these types of numbers in their own tracking, they have to really be hoping that the WOM is good for the film in order for it to really pick up, which isnt a guarantee. Could be a very interesting Board meeting Come Monday morning at Disney Headquarters if this is OW is seen as underperforming in a concerning manner.

[TwoMisfits]

So, on a new movie, Creed III is getting the $5 T-Mobile Atom ticket deal.  2nd movie of the year after Plane, which did get a pretty noticeable lift from long range tracking from the deal.  Creed III came out with lower than expected tracking, so this deal is probably a response to get Stallone fans and other fence sitters in.  Tickets go live Feb 28.

[keysersoze123]

On 2/11/2023 at 6:14 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Ant-Man 3 MTC2 previews - 112837/653520 1630830.70 4203 shows

 

Pace is about 4100 per day. 

Ant-Man MTC2 previews - 135056/779836 1934323.61 5525 shows

 

Not much to extrapolate from this at this point. Thinking 250-275K finish at MTC2. 

[ZackM]

18 hours ago, ZackM said:

 

More numbers:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	470	4	26	20	28
Seats Added	51,785	516	2,841	3,264	2,058
Seats Sold	11,297	7,064	5,088	5,125	4,969
2/13/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	435	5,635	198,599	987,003	20.12%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	10	69	273	536
ATP
$17.41

 

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Comps
	Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3	$19.3	$20.4	$19.6	$20.5	$16.4	$17.5
T-4	$19.8	$20.8	$19.6	$20.4	$16.6	$17.7
T-5	$20.1	$21.1	$19.6	$20.4	$16.8	$17.9
T-6	$20.4	$21.4	$19.7	$20.6	$16.8	$17.9
T-7	$20.7	$21.7	$19.9	$20.7	$16.9	$18.0
T-8	$20.9	$21.9	$20.0	$20.9	$17.0	$18.1
T-9	$21.2	$22.2	$20.1	$20.9	$17.1	$18.2
T-10	$21.0	$22.0	$19.8	$20.7	$16.9	$18.0
T-11	$21.1	$22.1	$20.0	$20.8	$16.8	$17.9
T-12	$21.2	$22.2	$20.2	$21.0	$16.8	$18.0
T-13	$21.3	$22.3	$20.3	$21.2	$16.8	$17.9
T-14	$21.5	$22.5	$20.7	$21.5	$16.7	$17.8
T-15	$21.7	$22.7	$20.7	$21.6	$16.6	$17.7
T-16	$21.8	$22.8	$20.9	$21.7	$16.5	$17.7
T-17	$21.8	$22.8	$21.0	$21.8	$16.5	$17.6
T-18	$21.8	$22.8	$21.2	$22.1	$16.7	$17.8

 

Tough day...

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	692	470	4	26	20
Seats Added	72,557	51,785	516	2,841	3,264
Seats Sold	13,131	11,297	7,064	5,088	5,125
2/14/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	435	6,327	211,730	1,059,560	19.98%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	9	77	296	577
ATP
$17.30

 

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Comps
	Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder		Dr. Strange MoM
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2	$18.9	$19.9	$19.2	$20.0	$16.1	$17.1
T-3	$19.3	$20.4	$19.6	$20.5	$16.4	$17.5
T-4	$19.8	$20.8	$19.6	$20.4	$16.6	$17.7
T-5	$20.1	$21.1	$19.6	$20.4	$16.8	$17.9
T-6	$20.4	$21.4	$19.7	$20.6	$16.8	$17.9
T-7	$20.7	$21.7	$19.9	$20.7	$16.9	$18.0
T-8	$20.9	$21.9	$20.0	$20.9	$17.0	$18.1
T-9	$21.2	$22.2	$20.1	$20.9	$17.1	$18.2
T-10	$21.0	$22.0	$19.8	$20.7	$16.9	$18.0
T-11	$21.1	$22.1	$20.0	$20.8	$16.8	$17.9
T-12	$21.2	$22.2	$20.2	$21.0	$16.8	$18.0
T-13	$21.3	$22.3	$20.3	$21.2	$16.8	$17.9
T-14	$21.5	$22.5	$20.7	$21.5	$16.7	$17.8
T-15	$21.7	$22.7	$20.7	$21.6	$16.6	$17.7
T-16	$21.8	$22.8	$20.9	$21.7	$16.5	$17.7
T-17	$21.8	$22.8	$21.0	$21.8	$16.5	$17.6
T-18	$21.8	$22.8	$21.2	$22.1	$16.7	$17.8

[keysersoze123]

21 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ant-man 3 MTC1

Previews(T-3) - 199211/1012871 3466675.35 5800 shows + 11545

Friday - 147708/1309101 2585552.62 7021 shows +12754

Ant-man 3 MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 211893/1083164 3665071.55 6473 shows +12682

Friday - 163450/1430070 2838962.62 7984 shows +15742

 

oof. I think 100m is now 50-50. FYI this is well below Venom 2 T-2(daily sales) and that was having serious momentum and here there is none. 

[Eric Furiosa]

On 2/14/2023 at 1:50 AM, Eric the Conqueror said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-3 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	183	5950	33845	17.58%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 381

 

Comp - T-3

1.627x of Black Widow (21.48M)

2.585x of Shang-Chi (22.74M)

2.171x of Eternals (20.62M)

0.278x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (13.89M)

0.763x of The Batman (16.49M)

0.413x of Doctor Strange 2 (14.86M)

0.719x of Thor 4 (20.86M)

0.557x of Black Panther 2 (15.61M)

1.614x of Avatar 2 (27.44M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	240	6470	40895	15.82%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 520

 

Comp - T-2

1.509x of Black Widow (19.92M)

2.463x of Shang-Chi (21.67M)

2.063x of Eternals (19.6M)

0.275x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (13.73M)

0.741x of The Batman (16M)

0.416x of Doctor Strange 2 (14.99M)

0.701x of Thor 4 (20.33M)

0.558x of Black Panther 2 (15.62M)

1.586x of Avatar 2 (26.96M)

 

This is gonna be a rough fucking weekend lol

[Eric Furiosa]

On 2/14/2023 at 1:57 AM, Eric the Conqueror said:

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-24 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	434	8200	5.29%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 28

 

Comp - T-24

2.398x of Scream (8.39M)

2.076x of Nope (13.29M)

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-23 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	465	8200	5.67%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 31

 

Comp - T-23

2.325x of Scream (8.14M)

2.123x of Nope (13.59M)

[Eric Furiosa]

On 2/14/2023 at 2:00 AM, Eric the Conqueror said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-94 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	226	17734	1.27%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 15

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-93 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	237	17734	1.34%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 11

[Verrows]

Hoping for a healthy March and not just a string of fucking disappointments.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-94 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	156	23263	23621	358	1.52%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

4

 

0.83152x F9 (2020) at T-94 at the equivalent sources of tracking.    [???m]

 

Regal:      63/8019  [0.79% sold]
Matinee:    7/2638  [0.27% | 1.96% of all tickets sold]

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-93 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	156	23254	23621	367	1.55%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

9

 

0.84906x F9 (2020) at T-93 at the equivalent sources of tracking.    [???m]

 

Regal:      63/8019  [0.79% sold]
Matinee:    7/2638  [0.27% | 1.91% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Next update will be on Sunday.

Edited February 15, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-24 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	65	7212	7549	337	4.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

4

 

T-24  Comp

	%		Sold T-24	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	185.16		182	182		0/73	11083/11265	1.62%		3951	8.53%		11.57m
Nope	169.35		3	199		0/84	13505/13704	1.45%		3822	8.82%		10.84m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:         70/2624  [2.67% sold]
Matinee:       34/687  [4.95% | 10.09% of all tickets sold]
3D:            136/2458  [5.53% | 40.36% of all tickets sold]

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold
TOTALS	0	0	65	7200	7549	349

 

Total Seats Sold Today

12

 

T-23  Comp

	%		Sold T-23	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	161.57		34	216		0/73	11049/11265	1.92%		3951	8.83%		10.10m
Nope	161.57		17	216		0/84	13488/13704	1.58%		3822	9.13%		10.34m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:         74/2624  [2.82% sold]
Matinee:        36/687 [5.24% | 10.32% of all tickets sold]
3D:            140/2458  [5.70% | 40.11% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	269	28018	35106	7088	20.19%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	18
Total Net Seats Added Today	1410
Total Net Seats Sold Today	474

 

T-3 Comps

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET	206.23		397	3437		0/118	13711/17148	20.04%		6409	110.59%		19.59m
MoM	46.06		1037	15390		0/368	28239/43629	35.27%		21117	33.57%		16.58m
L&T	70.12		550	10109		0/251	23592/33701	30.00%		16962	41.79%		20.33m
BP2	64.16		914	11048		2/355	30945/41993	26.31%		16800	42.19%		17.96m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1675/14211  [11.79% sold]
Matinee:    293/3941  [7.43% | 4.13% of all tickets sold]
3D:            823/5889  [13.98% | 11.61% of all tickets sold]

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	289	28754	36429	7675	21.07%

 

Total Showings Added Today	20
Total Seats Added Today	1323
Total Seats Sold Today	587

 

T-2 Comps

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET	195.14		496	3933		0/130	14226/18159	21.66%		6409	119.75%		18.54m
MoM	46.31		1182	16572		0/383	28323/44895	36.91%		21117	36.35%		16.67m
L&T	68.10		1161	11270		0/311	28171/39441	28.57%		16962	45.25%		19.75m
BP2	64.35		879	11927		2/375	31211/43138	27.65%		16800	45.68%		18.02m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1862/14211  [13.10% sold]
Matinee:    360/3941  [9.13% | 4.69% of all tickets sold]
3D:            900/6039  [14.90% | 11.73% of all tickets sold]

[YM!]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ant-man 3 MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 211893/1083164 3665071.55 6473 shows +12682

Friday - 163450/1430070 2838962.62 7984 shows +15742

 

oof. I think 100m is now 50-50. FYI this is well below Venom 2 T-2(daily sales) and that was having serious momentum and here there is none. 

Is my 90m club happening?

[TwoMisfits]

So, should I bump my "$16M previews are not off the table" posts from the 1st few presale days...or would that be too much?

[Menor the Destroyer]

13 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, should I bump my "$16M previews are not off the table" posts from the 1st few presale days...or would that be too much?

It's still not going to be that low.

[M37]

On 1/17/2023 at 10:02 AM, M37 said:

So the final week of sales includes:

 

Sun 2/12 = Super Bowl 

Mon 2/13 = premiere/reactions (got moved)

Tue 2/14 = Valentine’s Day 

Also review drop, not sure if they’ll do it on Tue because of V-Day, but certainly in that week 

 

Trying to decipher those daily sales before T-1 😂

 

 

 

 

I know its difficult to grasp, but for most people outside of this forum, the most important event on Tuesday was not the review drop of AMWQ 😆

 

Would doubt to quite the same degree, but don't be surprised if we get Thor'd here

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

I know its difficult to grasp, but for most people outside of this forum, the most important event on Tuesday was not the review drop of AMWQ 😆

 

Would doubt to quite the same degree, but don't be surprised if we get Thor'd here

Yeah not impossible, kinda like how July 4 depresses presales. The only thing is with Thor we had the precedent of BW to know that it affected things, whereas at least I have never tracked presales for a big movie on Valentine's day specifically.

[M37]

22 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Yeah not impossible, kinda like how July 4 depresses presales. The only thing is with Thor we had the precedent of BW to know that it affected things, whereas at least I have never tracked presales for a big movie on Valentine's day specifically.

Far different movie, but here were the last week of sales for Uncharted in Philly on this same week last year, and the Alpha sales for AMWQ

 

T-6 = 45 / 5125

T-5 = 40 / 5088

T-4 = 40 / 7064 (Super Bowl)

T-3 = 71 (V-Day) / 11,297

T-2 = 131 / 13,131 (V-Day)

T-1 = 198 / ???

T-0 = 492 / ???

 

My target is still a ~350K finish for Alpha, making up some ground today (over 20K), but most of it on Thursday

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, should I bump my "$16M previews are not off the table" posts from the 1st few presale days...or would that be too much?

I was thinking of bumping them — the fact that it got Eternals reception and still isn’t going that low is a good demonstration of how it wasn’t on the table 😛 

Edited February 15, 2023 by Favorite Fearless Legion