The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

  

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ant-Man 3 MTC1 previews(T-6) - 175088/950344 3081671.28 5230 shows + 5164

 

not much of a boost again. Tad over half of Thor 4 sales and less than that for Wakanda and others(over past 24 hours). Probably nothing big until final week. 

 

Ant-man 3 MTC1

previews (T-5) - 180090/953231 3161527.66 5258 shows +5002

Friday - 125666/1262120 2229631.04 6654 shows

 

At least friday sold more than 6K tickets but as I posted earlier, we have wait until Monday for the real action if we get one. 

[Eric the Ape]

22 hours ago, Magic Eric said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-6 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	178	5235	33074	15.83%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 211

 

Comp - T-6

1.826x of Black Widow (24.1M)

3.129x of Shang-Chi (27.54M)

2.398x of Eternals (22.78M)

0.275x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (13.77M)

0.845x of The Batman (18.26M)

0.423x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.23M)

0.739x of Thor 4 (21.44M)

0.573x of Black Panther 2 (16.06M)

1.819x of Avatar 2 (30.92M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	178	5410	33074	16.36%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 175

 

Comp - T-5

1.765x of Black Widow (23.3M)

3.027x of Shang-Chi (26.64M)

2.324x of Eternals (22.08M)

0.275x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (13.76M)

0.830x of The Batman (17.94M)

0.427x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.37M)

0.740x of Thor 4 (21.46M)

0.571x of Black Panther 2 (16M)

1.791x of Avatar 2 (30.44M)

[Eric the Ape]

22 hours ago, Magic Eric said:

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-27 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	325	8200	3.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 70

 

Comp T-27

4.333x of Scream (15.17M)

1.795x of Nope (11.49M)

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-26 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	351	8200	4.28%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 26

 

Comp - T-26

2.600x of Scream (9.1M)

1.939x of Nope (12.41M)

[Eric the Ape]

22 hours ago, Magic Eric said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-97 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	79	159	17004	0.94%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 97

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-96 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	79	172	17004	1.01%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 13

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-98 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	156	23365	23621	256	1.08%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

195

 

1.2965x F9 (2020) after 2 days of pre-sales at the equivalent sources of tracking. [???m]

 

Regal:      42/8019  [0.52% sold]
Matinee:    7/2638  [0.27% | 2.73% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Now that's more like it. 👍

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-96 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	156	23303	23621	318	1.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

62

 

1.2579x  F9 (2020) after 3 days of pre-sales at the equivalent sources of tracking. [???m]

0.7966x F9 (2020) at T-96 at the equivalent sources of tracking.                              [???m]

 

Regal:      59/8019  [0.74% sold]
Matinee:    7/2638  [0.27% | 2.20% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-27 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	65	7272	7549	277	3.67%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

33

 

Day 3 Comps

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	110.80		34	250		0/73	11015/11265	2.22%		3951	7.01%		6.93m
Nope	374.32		10	74		0/85	13630/13704	0.54%		3822	7.25%		23.96m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-27  Comp

%

Sold T-27

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

Nope

153.04

5

181

0/84

13523/13704

1.32%

3822

7.25%

9.79m

 

Regal:        60/2624  [2.29% sold]
Matinee:      24/687  [3.49% | 8.66% of all tickets sold]
3D:            110/2458  [4.48% | 39.71% of all tickets sold]

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-26 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	65	7245	7549	304	4.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

27

 

Day 4 Comps

	%		Sold Day 4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	101.67		49	299		0/73	10966/11265	2.65%		3951	7.69%		6.35m
Nope	370.73		8	82		0/84	13622/13704	0.60%		3822	7.95%		23.73m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-27  Comp

%

Sold T-26

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

Nope

159.16

10

191

0/84

13513/13704

1.39%

3822

7.95%

10.19m

 

Regal:     65/2624  [2.48% sold]
Matinee:    29/687  [4.22% | 9.54% of all tickets sold]
3D:            123/2458  [5.00% | 40.46% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Switching to T-x comps exclusively, even if they won't be very good, starting tomorrow.

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	249	27442	33626	6184	18.39%

 

Total Showings Added Today	12
Total Seats Added Today	968
Total Seats Sold Today	200

 

T-6 Comps

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	47.34		506	13063		0/353	29617/42680	30.61%		21117	29.28%		17.04m
L&T	71.35		393	8667		0/249	24865/33532	25.85%		16962	36.46%		20.69m
BP2	67.93		395	9104		2/308	29023/38127	23.88%		16800	36.81%		19.02m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1381/12874  [10.73% sold]
Matinee:     241/3314  [7.27% | 3.90% of all tickets sold]
3D:            734/6500  [11.29% | 11.87% of all tickets sold]

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	249	27315	33626	6311	18.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

127

 

T-5 Comps

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET	221.52		99	2849		0/101	13119/15968	17.84%		6409	98.47%		21.04m
MoM	46.72		446	13509		0/353	29171/42680	31.65%		21117	29.89%		16.82m
TG:M	94.85		312	6654		0/271	30655/37309	17.83%		11474	55.00%		18.74m
L&T	70.36		302	8969		0/251	24732/33701	26.61%		16962	37.21%		20.41m
BP2	66.32		412	9516		2/307	28444/37960	25.07%		16800	37.57%		18.57m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1440/12874  [11.19% sold]
Matinee:    250/3314  [7.54% | 3.96% of all tickets sold]
3D:            741/6500  [11.40% | 11.74% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Not quite as bad as it looks, as it lost 20 tickets at a showing when (what was likely) a group sale went up in smoke.  And, as @M37 noted, the Super Bowl is probably exasperating the tendency for Saturdays-before-release being soft.

 

Still, with that said:  Could have been better, locally.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	249	27315	33626	6311	18.77%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

127

 

T-5 Comps

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
ET	221.52		99	2849		0/101	13119/15968	17.84%		6409	98.47%		21.04m
MoM	46.72		446	13509		0/353	29171/42680	31.65%		21117	29.89%		16.82m
TG:M	94.85		312	6654		0/271	30655/37309	17.83%		11474	55.00%		18.74m
L&T	70.36		302	8969		0/251	24732/33701	26.61%		16962	37.21%		20.41m
BP2	66.32		412	9516		2/307	28444/37960	25.07%		16800	37.57%		18.57m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Ant-Man 3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     1440/12874  [11.19% sold]
Matinee:    250/3314  [7.54% | 3.96% of all tickets sold]
3D:            741/6500  [11.40% | 11.74% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Not quite as bad as it looks, as it lost 20 tickets at a showing when (what was likely) a group sale went up in smoke.  And, as @M37 noted, the Super Bowl is probably exasperating the tendency for Saturdays-before-release being soft.

 

Still, with that said:  Could have been better, locally.

That group bailed when they saw the social media reactions 

[M37]

12 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Spoiler

Checking "analysis" definition

 

the result of a careful examination of something

 

I think its fair to assume that, careful plotting & examining of different data set does come in analysis.

 

With that settled, nothing personal, I just pointed out how having MOM in the mix is making the "analysis" of less use. On other hand of extremes, having something like Shang Chi would be inflating average. Just because all of them are MCU, can't be used as comps.

 

Spoiler

Here was the actual analysis that accompanied the chart at T-16 (and hasn't really changed since then):

 

At present, the average is floating around $19M, though likely weighted down by the monstrous early pre-sale volume of Strange, and should come up to $20M+ over time ...

 

... but currently doesn't look to pacing for all that much more than that; whole lot of nearly flat lines over the last 4-7 days.  In addition, looking at bit closer at the markets (and accounting for atypical distribution of BPWF) finding that higher comps values are in the more PLF/pre-sale heavy samples like Alpha and Drafthouse, major markets (Sacto, Philly) are a step below, and the secondary markets (Denver, Jax/Pho/Ral) are even trending lower

 

All in all, the sales to this point smell a little fan-heavy-ish, in that while the introduction of Kang spurred a larger early rush, the broader MCU audience appears to still largely view this release as an just another Ant-Man movie. As opening gets closer that perception may change, and won't be surprised with a strong late kick - especially if we get very good reviews in contrast to the mostly underwhelming phase 4 - but for now expectations are probably best tempered from where they may have vaulted after the opening day of sales

 

T-16 Forecast: $19-$22M Thursday, $100-$130M 3-day

 

Including MoM and seeing how values were dropping more vs Thor than coming up vs MoM is partially how those conclusions were reached; there is often value in imperfect comps, even if indirectly. Disagree with that read of data if you want, but "doesn't hold water" or "wrong" is pretty strong language given how things have played out to this point

 

12 hours ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Spoiler

M37 has also used some language recently along the lines of “what I was expecting was smart/reasonable/correct base case, what other people were expecting was wrong.”

 

Spoiler

There was a fairly robust back and forth following the somewhat unexpected OD surge and where expectations should set as a result, and I think my language was fairly restrained, because while I leaned toward a particular view of the early data, I genuinely wasn't sure how it would play out. Have those words of caution grown louder over the ensuing weeks as what I thought might happen has - to this point* - largely occurred? Sure, guilty as charged, but I never said it was "wrong" to hold the more optimistic view - quite the opposite actually - only that some were in my view a little slow to let go of that expectation despite the sales data that came in after it.

 

*not going to be totally shocked if AMWQ pulls a Thor here at the end, with outside factors diminishing last week sales before catching up in one fell swoop, despite (likely) not great reviews

 

 

Spoiler

I'm done with this conversation, at least in public; PMs are open if there's more to be said. ... but also tracking in general for at least through the rest of AMWQ Thursday, maybe even longer. The effort to "fun" ratio is just leaning too much the wrong way

 

Anyway, none of the above directly tracking related, so buried under spoilers so that people can skip over it and not derail the thread

 

Updated chart at T-5 (holding Alpha flat from T-6), without accompanying analysis; feel free to draw your own conclusions from the aggregated data:

[XXR vs XXR]

15 minutes ago, M37 said:

Spoiler

I'm done with this conversation, at least in public; PMs are open if there's more to be said. ... but also tracking in general for at least through the rest of AMWQ Thursday, maybe even longer. The effort to "fun" ratio is just leaning too much the wrong way

 

 

That's why I stopped. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

I think a supersized Eternals is the most apt comp in terms of the trend we've seen over the past week and when/why the trend really amplified. That did have something of a bump relative to SC in the final week after the pace was utterly dire beforehand. Not enough to save it, but enough to keep the super low-end possibilities from coming to fruition. 

Edited February 12, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[keysersoze123]

Big question is Monday sales. May be like Thor tuesday(7/5), presales wont recover completely after 4th of July depressed sales. but wednesday took off big time. Here we may have to wait until tuesday to see how much it recovers. when do reviews come out. Is that on tuesday as well?

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Big question is Monday sales. May be like Thor tuesday(7/5), presales wont recover completely after 4th of July depressed sales. but wednesday took off big time. Here we may have to wait until tuesday to see how much it recovers. when do reviews come out. Is that on tuesday as well?

Yes. 

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Big question is Monday sales. May be like Thor tuesday(7/5), presales wont recover completely after 4th of July depressed sales. but wednesday took off big time. Here we may have to wait until tuesday to see how much it recovers. when do reviews come out. Is that on tuesday as well?

Feb 14th 9:00AM PT/12:00PM EST

[Eric the Ape]

23 hours ago, Magic Eric said:

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-5 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	178	5410	33074	16.36%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 175

 

Comp - T-5

1.765x of Black Widow (23.3M)

3.027x of Shang-Chi (26.64M)

2.324x of Eternals (22.08M)

0.275x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (13.76M)

0.830x of The Batman (17.94M)

0.427x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.37M)

0.740x of Thor 4 (21.46M)

0.571x of Black Panther 2 (16M)

1.791x of Avatar 2 (30.44M)

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-4 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	178	5569	33074	16.84%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 159

 

Comp - T-4

1.658x of Black Widow (21.88M)

2.807x of Shang-Chi (24.7M)

2.231x of Eternals (21.2M)

0.273x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (13.67M)

0.803x of The Batman (17.35M)

0.415x of Doctor Strange 2 (14.94M)

0.721x of Thor 4 (20.9M)

0.559x of Black Panther 2 (15.65M)

1.681x of Avatar 2 (28.58M)

[Eric the Ape]

23 hours ago, Magic Eric said:

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-26 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	351	8200	4.28%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 26

 

Comp - T-26

2.600x of Scream (9.1M)

1.939x of Nope (12.41M)

Scream VI Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-25 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	50	406	8200	4.95%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 55

 

Comp - T-25

2.491x of Scream (8.72M)

2.020x of Nope (12.93M)

[Eric the Ape]

23 hours ago, Magic Eric said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-96 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	79	172	17004	1.01%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 13

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-95 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	79	211	17004	1.24%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 39

[keysersoze123]

On 2/11/2023 at 9:28 PM, keysersoze123 said:

  

 

Ant-man 3 MTC1

previews (T-5) - 180090/953231 3161527.66 5258 shows +5002

Friday - 125666/1262120 2229631.04 6654 shows

 

At least friday sold more than 6K tickets but as I posted earlier, we have wait until Monday for the real action if we get one. 

Ant-man 3 MTC1

previews (T-4) - 187666/953725 3283921.22 5261 shows +7576

Friday - 134954/1263548 2380674.36 6664 shows +9288

 

50% boost today for previews and friday. 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-96 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	156	23303	23621	318	1.35%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

62

 

1.2579x  F9 (2020) after 3 days of pre-sales at the equivalent sources of tracking. [???m]

0.7966x F9 (2020) at T-96 at the equivalent sources of tracking.                              [???m]

 

Regal:      59/8019  [0.74% sold]
Matinee:    7/2638  [0.27% | 2.20% of all tickets sold]

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-95 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	251	27082	33696	6614	19.63%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

36

 

1.2555x  F9 (2020) after 4 days of pre-sales at the equivalent sources of tracking. [???m]

0.8696x F9 (2020) at T-95 at the equivalent sources of tracking.                              [???m]

 

Regal:      59/8019  [0.74% sold]
Matinee:    7/2638  [0.27% | 1.98% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 2/12/2023 at 12:24 AM, Porthos said:

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-26 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	65	7245	7549	304	4.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

27

 

Day 4 Comps

	%		Sold Day 4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	101.67		49	299		0/73	10966/11265	2.65%		3951	7.69%		6.35m
Nope	370.73		8	82		0/84	13622/13704	0.60%		3822	7.95%		23.73m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

T-27  Comp

%

Sold T-26

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

Nope

159.16

10

191

0/84

13513/13704

1.39%

3822

7.95%

10.19m

 

Regal:     65/2624  [2.48% sold]
Matinee:    29/687  [4.22% | 9.54% of all tickets sold]
3D:            123/2458  [5.00% | 40.46% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Switching to T-x comps exclusively, even if they won't be very good, starting tomorrow.

 

Scream VI Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-25 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	65	7216	7549	333	4.41%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

29

 

T-25  Comp

%

Sold T-25

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

Nope

169.90

5

196

0/84

13508/13704

1.43%

3822

8.71%

10.87m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Scream VI's current tickets sold versus that final number.

Regal:        70/2624  [2.67% sold]
Matinee:      34/687  [4.95% | 10.21% of all tickets sold]
3D:           135/2458  [5.49% | 40.54% of all tickets sold]

Edited February 14, 2023 by Porthos