The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Legion Again]

41 minutes ago, ZackM said:

1% margin of error is acceptable.

Ah but is 1.01%

[Boxofficerules]

How’s Scream VI looking?

[katnisscinnaplex]

21 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ant-Man 3	T-6	Jax	6	94	83	1,601	16,129	9.93%
		Phx	6	97	81	1,684	15,908	10.59%
		Ral	8	103	72	1,705	13,705	12.44%
	Total		20	294	236	4,990	45,742	10.91%
Cocaine Bear	T-13	Jax	6	19	2	25	2,036	1.23%
		Phx	6	15	4	46	1,980	2.32%
		Ral	8	20	0	49	1,569	3.12%
	Total		20	54	6	120	5,585	2.15%
Fast X	T-97	Jax	5	53	12	12	7,784	0.15%
		Phx	5	19	5	6	3,083	0.19%
		Ral	7	40	10	26	7,207	0.36%
	Total		17	112	27	44	18,074	0.24%
Jesus Revolution	T-13	Jax	5	9	0	25	1,021	2.45%
		Phx	4	5	0	19	622	3.05%
		Ral	7	11	4	69	1,156	5.97%
	Total		16	25	4	113	2,799	4.04%
Jesus Rev (EA)	T-12	Jax	5	11	0	243	1,021	23.80%
		Phx	5	8	19	156	850	18.35%
		Ral	8	12	-3	653	1,462	44.66%
	Total		18	31	16	1,052	3,333	31.56%
Marlowe	T-4	Jax	5	16	0	12	1,580	0.76%
		Phx	5	13	0	5	1,121	0.45%
		Ral	6	13	0	12	1,210	0.99%
	Total		16	42	0	29	3,911	0.74%
Scream VI	T-27	Jax	5	22	10	58	2,910	1.99%
		Phx	5	15	23	119	2,792	4.26%
		Ral	8	33	16	89	4,211	2.11%
	Total		18	70	49	266	9,913	2.68%

 

Marlowe T-4 comps

 - Missing - .906x (686k)

 - Ambulance - .558x (390k)

 - Fabelmans - 1.526x (609k)

 - Bones and All - 1.04x (357k)

 - Last Night in Soho - .509x (382k)

 - Amsterdam - missing

 

Ant-Man 3 T-6 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.653x (21.825m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - .386x (13.89m)

 - Thor 4 - .666x (19.3m)

 - Eternals - 2.26x (21.46m)

 - BP2 - missed

 

Jesus Revolution T-13 comps (excluding EA)

 - Left Behind - 1.27x (775k)

 - I Wanna Dance - 1.487x (1.085m)

 

Jesus Revolution + EA comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - missed

 - Left Behind - 13.09x (7.99m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 15.33x (11.19m)

 

Cocaine Bear T-13 comps

 - Knock at the Cabin - 1.5x (2.18m)

 - Elvis - .545x (1.75m)

 - Nope - .343x (2.19m)

 

Scream VI T-27 comps

 - Nope - missed

 - Knock at the Cabin - 7.6x (11.02m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Ant-Man 3	T-5	Jax	6	94	59	1,660	16,129	10.29%
		Phx	6	97	47	1,731	15,908	10.88%
		Ral	8	103	85	1,790	13,705	13.06%
	Total		20	294	191	5,181	45,742	11.33%
Cocaine Bear	T-12	Jax	6	19	6	31	2,036	1.52%
		Phx	6	15	3	49	1,980	2.47%
		Ral	8	20	1	50	1,569	3.19%
	Total		20	54	10	130	5,585	2.33%
Fast X	T-96	Jax	5	54	28	40	7,982	0.50%
		Phx	6	20	29	35	3,534	0.99%
		Ral	7	40	31	57	7,207	0.79%
	Total		18	114	88	132	18,723	0.71%
Jesus Revolution	T-12	Jax	5	9	1	26	1,021	2.55%
		Phx	4	5	0	19	622	3.05%
		Ral	7	11	7	76	1,156	6.57%
	Total		16	25	8	121	2,799	4.32%
Jesus Rev (EA)	T-11	Jax	5	11	2	245	1,021	24.00%
		Phx	5	8	0	156	850	18.35%
		Ral	8	12	5	658	1,462	45.01%
	Total		18	31	7	1,059	3,333	31.77%
Marlowe	T-3	Jax	5	16	3	15	1,580	0.95%
		Phx	5	13	0	5	1,121	0.45%
		Ral	6	13	2	14	1,210	1.16%
	Total		16	42	5	34	3,911	0.87%
Scream VI	T-26	Jax	5	22	5	63	2,910	2.16%
		Phx	5	15	17	136	2,792	4.87%
		Ral	8	33	20	109	4,211	2.59%
	Total		18	70	42	308	9,913	3.11%

 

Marlowe T-3 comps

 - Missing - .895x (680k)

 - Ambulance - .567x (397k)

 - Fabelmans - 1.545x (617k)

 - Bones and All - .85x (293k)

 - Last Night in Soho - .472x (354k)

 - Amsterdam - .324x (178k)

 

Ant-Man 3 T-5 comps

 - Black Widow - 1.623x (21.42m)

 - Dr Strange 2 - missed

 - Thor 4 - missed

 - Eternals - 2.25x (21.4m)

 - BP2 - missed

 

Jesus Revolution T-12 comps (excluding EA)

 - Left Behind - 1.16x (710k)

 - I Wanna Dance - 1.476x (1.077m)

 

Jesus Revolution + EA comps

 - Downton Abbey + EA - 3.147x (5.66m)

 - Left Behind - 11.35x (6.93m)

 - I Wanna Dance - 14.39x (10.5m)

 

Cocaine Bear T-12 comps

 - Knock at the Cabin - missed

 - Elvis - .556x (1.78m)

 - Nope - .343x (2.18m)

 - Bullet Train - .699x (2.34m)

 - Violent Night - 2.55x (2.8m)

 

Scream VI T-26 comps

 - Nope - missed

 - Knock at the Cabin - 8.1x (11.75m)

[TwoMisfits]

6 hours ago, GOGODanca said:

geez its avatar 2's final week all over again

 

Ummm, it is a front-loaded fanbase Disney blockbuster movie with a PG-13 rating and an appeal that will not skew heavily into minority markets, but deliver a more normal, or even possibly slightly more Caucasian MCU opening weekend audience during a non-summer period. 

 

Or, didn't I mention about 5 weeks ago, we shouldn't exclude that kinda ending week, b/c Ant Man would not be Wakanda?

 

That said, that doesn't mean the last week WILL happen that way b/c Super Bowl ads and Valentine Buys can still be very powerful...

 

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Ah but is 1.01%

Should @Magic Eric be banned for bringing shame to this house.

[Legion Again]

7 hours ago, GOGODanca said:

geez its avatar 2's final week all over again

Eternals is the more natural comp here

[Verrows]

I still can't see the multi being less than 6 for numbers this small so the previews would have to be less than $18M for sub $100M OW to happen. And it could happen, but that's my bar.

[Tinalera]

6 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

*checks*

 

Yeah, you're right.  Lemme change my blocks.

 

(what can I say?  I just copied Eric, presuming he was right )

Details! The difference between day 97 and 98 before could be a MASSIVE change in the end result-those extra 20 seats could make all the difference!

[M37]

21 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

this analysis would hold some weight if it didn't include MOM. you can't possibly have one of the three comps to be a film like MOM which was heading for $40M previews for something heading for $20M+.

First off, it's not an "analysis" on its own, just a basic aggregated chart with unweighted averages, including one for each individual title, so one can choose to focus on just 1 or 2 rather than the full average line. I usually post with my thoughts added rather that letting it speak for itself, because it's really not intended to stand alone, open to some interpretation

 

As to MoM specifically, the point about size is valid (though I would dispute the heading for $40M a bit), but that doesn't make the comp totally irrelevant, and I have been mentally downweighting that value to land at ~$20M rather than the mathematical ~$19M average, because AMWQ should out-run it over the final week and see value come up. But also going to pull up something I said way back when there was debate about the OD sales

On 1/19/2023 at 2:04 AM, M37 said:

Just think there's a decent chance AMWQ may prove to be more of a smaller version of MoM than falling on a trendline that includes Thor and especially BPWF

 

Finally ... "would hold some weight"?  That makes the second time in less than a day that you quoted and very matter-of-factly dismissed my comments/analysis as "wrong" in so many words. Words on a page without tone can be misinterpreted, and I have no issue with disagreement or debate, but unless you already have all the answers, don't think its too much to ask to be open towards - or at least respectful of - differing views of the data, even if you believe they will ultimately prove incorrect

[el sid]

Some numbers from yesterday. 
Fast X had in 5 of my 7 theaters 41 sold tickets for Thursday, May 18 and 50 sold tickets for Friday, May 19. 
No idea what that means. Probably that's an ok start.
 

Jesus Revolution had 28 sold tickets for Thursday, Feb 23.
Comp: Prey for the Devil (at the moment I don't have better comps) had on Monday of its release week 115 sold tickets for Thursday.
And for Friday, Feb 24 it had 45 sold tickets.
Comps: Father Stu (5.4M OW) had on Wednesday of its release week 31 sold tickets for Good Friday,
Overcomer (8.1M) had 34 sold tickets on Thursday of its release week
and The Chosen: Season 3 (?M) had also on Thursday of its release week 378 sold tickets.
 

Quite good numbers for Jesus Revolution but it often happened in recent months that films of that genre at first had ok presales but very small jumps in the release week.
 

Creed III tickets are still not available.

[el sid]

Scream VI, counted yesterday for Mar 9 with 27 days to go:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): no showtimes so far
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 36 (2 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 6 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 7 (4 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 26 (2 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 60 (2 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 269 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 6 theaters: 404.

Comp: Scream (3.5M from previews) had with 25 days to go 341 sold tickets in 7 theaters and 306 in the same 6 theaters.

Scream VI, counted yesterday for Mar 10 with 28 days to go:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 58 (4 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 23 (4 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 3 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 2 (6 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 14 (5 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 17 (4 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 60 (5 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 177.

Comp: Scream (30M OW) had with 26 days to go 124 sold tickets in 7 theaters.

Very nice numbers. Scream definitely build some goodwill.

[Tinalera]

Antman Quantumania

Thurs Feb 16 and Fri Feb 17 (taken feb 11)

Eastern Canada 

 

Nova Sc	Thurs	4	27	597	5675	6272	0.0951
	fri	4	25	454	5624	6078	0.0746
New B	Thurs	3	12	216	2368	2584	0.0835
	fri	3	14	172	2804	2976	0.0577
St Jon NF	Thurs	1	13	319	2208	2527	0.1262
	fri	1	9	300	1542	1842	0.1628

 

 

Canada Wide 

 

Vancouve	Thurs	3	18	1147	2345	3492	0.3284
Calgary	Thurs	4	32	560	5767	6327	0.0885
Toronto	Thurs	4	27	1541	5532	7073	0.2178
Quebec	Thurs	4	29	981	6956	7937	0.1235
Nova Sc	Thurs	4	27	597	5675	6272	0.0951
New B	Thurs	3	12	216	2368	2584	0.0835
St Jon NF	Thurs	1	13	319	2208	2527	0.1262
Thurs	Total	23	158	5361	30851	36212	0.1480
Vancouve	Fri	3	21	900	3273	4392	0.2049
Calgary	Fri	4	29	424	5887	6311	0.0671
Toronto	Fri	4	36	998	8529	9527	0.1047
Quebec	Fri	4	23	889	5400	6289	0.1413
Nova Sc	fri	4	25	454	5624	6078	0.0746
New B	fri	3	14	172	2804	2976	0.0577
St Jon NF	fri	1	9	300	1542	1842	0.1628
Friday	Total	23	157	4137	33059	37415	0.1105

 

Again just a friendly reminder that this is not ALL of Canada seats/shows, but rather a sample of 3-4 theatres per area 

Van and Tor being bigger centers not surprising bigger percentage in part to sheer amount of more seats, shows ect. Newfoundland is interesting because of the one theatre, and the small pop density, has some high numbers. Im surprised Calgary has a little lower number than I thought. Overall numbers, an average of 11 percent a week out isn't too bad-though as others have mentioned, how much are sales based on the reviews. MCU tends to be mostly critic proof, we will see how the numbers WOM plays out. 

[keysersoze123]

5 hours ago, Verrows said:

I still can't see the multi being less than 6 for numbers this small so the previews would have to be less than $18M for sub $100M OW to happen. And it could happen, but that's my bar.

I am not so sure looking at friday presales and pace being too close to thursday to catch up. its going to behave like DS2 than BP2 which had super strong friday due to Veteran's day. Let us see if things change. My prediction is still 20/110/125 over the long weekend. But it will change if presales dont pick up very soon. Hopefully the SB spot tomorrow start the big push. For now I am expecting tepid pace today and tomorrow due to focus on the big game. 

[misterpepp]

@Magic Eric Creed 3 general tix should be on sale this coming Friday, the 17th. Apologies for the mishap, seems there was a last-minute change to only do EA sales on the 10th and begin general sales later.

[cdsacken]

11 hours ago, Favorite Fearless Legion said:

Eternals is the more natural comp here

depends eternals was confusing, not funny, not that family friendly, long and basically had nothing to do with MCU.

 

Not saying ant man 3 does well. I sure hope it does but I recognize the results of the previous 2

[keysersoze123]

On 2/9/2023 at 3:28 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Ant-Man 3 MTC2 previews - 104688/654212 1517162.59 4211 shows

 

it sold 3244 tickets in past 24 hours. 

Ant-Man 3 MTC2 previews - 112837/653520 1630830.70 4203 shows

 

Pace is about 4100 per day. 

[charlie Jatinder]

10 hours ago, M37 said:

First off, it's not an "analysis" on its own, just a basic aggregated chart with unweighted averages, including one for each individual title, so one can choose to focus on just 1 or 2 rather than the full average line

Checking "analysis" definition

 

the result of a careful examination of something

 

I think its fair to assume that, careful plotting & examining of different data set does come in analysis.

 

With that settled, nothing personal, I just pointed out how having MOM in the mix is making the "analysis" of less use. On other hand of extremes, having something like Shang Chi would be inflating average. Just because all of them are MCU, can't be used as comps.

10 hours ago, M37 said:

That makes the second time in less than a day that you quoted and very matter-of-factly dismissed my comments/analysis as "wrong" in so many words

Funny thing, I don't even remember what did I object/dismissed. Which is again because there was nothing personal, I just saw something wrong, and just pointed out.

 

If that comes out rude, I apologise.

Edited February 12, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

47 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ant-Man 3 MTC2 previews - 112837/653520 1630830.70 4203 shows

 

Pace is about 4100 per day. 

Is it still taking long time. That would make this data basically T-5 days + like 7/8 hours right?

[Legion Again]

I mean, any kind of disagreement is saying that the other side is “‘wrong’ in so many words,” right? Even just positively asserting one’s own view implies that other conclusions are wrong!
 

M37 has also used some language recently along the lines of “what I was expecting was smart/reasonable/correct base case, what other people were expecting was wrong.” I disagree on the merits, but beyond that I don’t really object to the framing — I’d certainly hope that people believe their own analysis is right, and it’s not like you can simultaneously believe that heading for 23 is right and heading for 20 is right and heading for 18 is right. 

Edited February 12, 2023 by Favorite Fearless Legion

[keysersoze123]

30 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Is it still taking long time. That would make this data basically T-5 days + like 7/8 hours right?

yes. it takes forever. median time would be around afternoon today.