The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[dxmatrixdt]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

 

I've got Matrix at T-15 with 655 tickets in my areas (I think that was first day).  John Wick is at 350.  Keep in mind though that Matrix was OD Wednesday sales for Christmas week.

sounds like Matrix was tracking for 70-100 5-day OW then?

[Maggie]

Wick tracking 60-70M

 

‘John Wick: Chapter 4’ Loading Up Franchise Record Opening Between $60M-$70M – Early Look Box Office

 

https://deadline.com/2023/03/john-wick-chapter-4-box-office-keanu-reeves-1235276778/

Edited March 2, 2023 by Maggie

[M37]

Been mostly away this week, seeing that Creed III is doing better than I had expected.  What kind of IM/OW would $5M+ in previews lead to? Being a franchise plus EA shows could frontload it a bit and drag it down, but there isn't much to go on in recent releases

 

The only non-summer previews in this range (excluding Sonic) since October 2021 are:

• Halloween Ends = $5.4/$40.0M = 7.42x
• Black Adam = $7.6/$67.0M = 8.82x
• Fantastic Beasts = $6/$42.2M = 7.01x (Good Fri/Easter)
• Morbius = $5.7/$39.0M = 6.84x

Those 3 Oct 2011 titles (IMs may be a bit skewed due to lingering pandemic effects)

• NTTD = $6.3/$55 = 8.81x (IdPe Weekend)
• Halloween Kills = $4.85/$49.4 = 10.19x
• Dune = $4.1/$40.0M = 8.04x

So maybe 8/8.5x? Wherever it ends up should set a decent baseline for Scream VI and Wick 4 as well

[stripe]

35 minutes ago, M37 said:

Been mostly away this week, seeing that Creed III is doing better than I had expected.  What kind of IM/OW would $5M+ in previews lead to? Being a franchise plus EA shows could frontload it a bit and drag it down, but there isn't much to go on in recent releases

 

The only non-summer previews in this range (excluding Sonic) since October 2021 are:

• Halloween Ends = $5.4/$40.0M = 7.42x
• Black Adam = $7.6/$67.0M = 8.82x
• Fantastic Beasts = $6/$42.2M = 7.01x (Good Fri/Easter)
• Morbius = $5.7/$39.0M = 6.84x

Those 3 Oct 2011 titles (IMs may be a bit skewed due to lingering pandemic effects)

• NTTD = $6.3/$55 = 8.81x (IdPe Weekend)
• Halloween Kills = $4.85/$49.4 = 10.19x
• Dune = $4.1/$40.0M = 8.04x

So maybe 8/8.5x? Wherever it ends up should set a decent baseline for Scream VI and Wick 4 as well

 

WOM will be very good and it is more adult friendly, so I am expecting solid IM over the weekend, 9x the previews. Around 45M OW if 5M+ previews happens.

[Tinalera]

Scream 6

Nova Scotia Canada/Country round up (t-8)

Thurs mar 9 and fri mar 10

 

nova	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	3	15	48	1065	1113	0.0084
Fri	3	10	35	2181	2216	0.0039

 

 

Vancouv	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	3	10	127	2019	2146	0.0591
Calgary
Thurs	4	5	52	2187	2239	0.0232
Toronto
Thurs	4	10	231	3435	3666	0.0630
Montreal
Thurs	2	6	124	1581	1705	0.0727
nova
Thurs	3	15	48	1065	1113	0.0084
Total	16	46	582	10287	10869	0.0535
Vancouv
Fri	3	20	52	4003	4055	0.0128
Calgary
Fri	4	7	76	3838	3914	0.0194
Toronto
Fri	4	20	207	4129	4336	0.0477
Montreal
Fri	2	10	78	2867	2945	0.0264
nova
Fri	3	10	35	2181	2216	0.0039
Total	48	159	1612	37592	39204	0.0411

 

Last count for the week. Away for the weekend and won't be getting counts till Tues of Next week

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

Fwiw, I'm expecting Wick sales to play a little fan-ish and skew somewhat older, but to not Avatar/NTTD level, and TGM is probably the comp I'd eye the most in general (though in your market perhaps a little less so, at least in the beginning).

 

Agreed.  I was actually surprised at just how well Wick 4 held against TGM in my local, which is why I decided to add it officially as a "heavily and usually frontloaded fan rush property" comp.  

 

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Agreed.  I was actually surprised at just how well Wick 4 held against TGM in my local, which is why I decided to add it officially as a "heavily and usually frontloaded fan rush property" comp.  

 

Wick is over-indexing in Sacramento. Generally Sacramento is less than Harkins, for Wick Sacramento is higher.

[Hiccup23]

Midday update for today's previews and also added John Wick 4. JW4 is starting strong. (Madison WI Theaters). Glad to see Creed III is picking up in sales. I will pull this just before 3pm when the first showing for Creed III starts. 

 

Film	Total Sold	Total Seats	Percent Sold	# of Showings	Change
Creed III	105	1,904	5.5%	10	28	77
Operation Fortune	9	714	1.3%	6	0	9
John Wick 4	48	1,450	3.3%	5	N/A	N/A

[Porthos]

48 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Wick is over-indexing in Sacramento. Generally Sacramento is less than Harkins, for Wick Sacramento is higher.

 

Probably.  Which is why I added TGM as something of a control.  But even the ultra mega-hot start of TGM in Sacto was a sign that it was gonna break out much more than expected.

 

Anything else I have to say about this will probably be better served after a few more days of data.

[GOGODanca]

i wonder why the wick franchise has consistently been able to grow domestically while mission impossible hasn't

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

i wonder why the wick franchise has consistently been able to grow domestically while mission impossible hasn't

 

Starting from a smaller base = more room for growth.

 

Also people just taking time to "find" the franchise as the initial film was very very niche and nearly a cult classic.

[reddevil19]

3 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

i wonder why the wick franchise has consistently been able to grow domestically while mission impossible hasn't

Much lower floor. Started off small-ish, with a low profile, an aging - if well-liked - action star, low expectations that then grew with each movie based on actual reaction, etc. MI started with an incredibly high profile star in his prime, was a recognisable brand, upfront excitement etc. It probably should have grown more than it did (the second one's dip in quality and third one's drop due to everything outside the movie definitely didn't help, as the franchise then had to rebuild), but it's simply possible it has a ceiling and it played close to that ceiling from the very beginning. 

[keysersoze123]

MTC1 for JW4 is looking very good as well. Definitely think even 60m+ will happen with good reactions. 

[M37]

9 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:

i wonder why the wick franchise has consistently been able to grow domestically while mission impossible hasn't

If you remove the first film, as more of a cult classic/seed of the IP rather than the start of a franchise, it’s following pretty closely the trajectory of Bourne; MI was an already established brand that had a much higher starting value, harder to grow. This film should be the peak, and any (inevitable) sequels probably start seeing diminishing returns 

[kayumanggi]

 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

12 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 You're out of your league, Ant-Man.

[Alex SciChannel]

Lame...

 

[Alex SciChannel]

30 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

 You're out of your league, Ant-Man.

Virgin Panavision DXL2 with a borrowed RED sensor 

Vs.

Chad Sony Venice CMOS

[M37]

47 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

AMC NewPark 12. The Dolby at same location is only ~25% full, and 2 standard shows have sold … 8 total tickets. Would presume it’s a group event (or even a down projector, as Fri shows also sold out) rather than indicative of demand 

[kayumanggi]

Just now, M37 said:

AMC NewPark 12. The Dolby at same location is only ~25% full, and 2 standard shows have sold … 8 total tickets. Would presume it’s a group event (or even a down projector, as Fri shows also sold out) rather than indicative of demand 

 

What's your prediction for CREED III?