The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, AJG said:

Shazam's Verified is at 71%. Below $30m OW is starting to feel real to me.

It has been real for a while now.

[YM!]

14 minutes ago, AJG said:

Shazam's Verified is at 71%. Below $30m OW is starting to feel real to me.

Why is it so low?

[crazymoviekid]

6 minutes ago, YM! said:

Why is it so low?

While it could be just because the movie's not good, I'm feeling like it's more likely Snyder/anti-Gunn fans spamming the title 

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, crazymoviekid said:

While it could be just because the movie's not good, I'm feeling like it's more likely Snyder/anti-Gunn fans spamming the title 

You can't do that with verified RT scores. You have to scan your ticket from a certain movie site.

[TheFlatLannister]

6 hours ago, cookie said:

 

I'm still expecting $100M+ 3 day $125M+ 5-day

 

I will have Orlando numbers updated tomorrow 

[AJG]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

You can't do that with verified RT scores. You have to scan your ticket from a certain movie site.

 

RT's Verified Score also syncs up really well with CinemaScore, and Deadline have mentioned professionals are starting to keep an eye on it. It's a really good system so far.

[vafrow]

My local theatre is continuing to do brisk sales today on Shazam. My theatre (8 screen Cineplex in greater Toronto suburb) usually stays pretty close to general trends.

 

As the second of three shows start, it's at just shy of 200 tickets sold for Shazam in the plf screen. The late show walkups likely takes this comfortably over 200.

 

We have school break effect happening here, so it makes sense that its overindexing, but, taking ticket prices here and exchange rate, if you extrapolate this as being an average theatre, it gets a Thursday preview number of $7M.

 

We're not going to see that obviously, but, I think it shows that there's some pockets of support for this, likely in areas where families are feeling there hasn't been much for them recently.

Edited March 16, 2023 by vafrow
Had a typo on total daily sales getting over 300, when I meant 200. Extrapolation to $7M still holds.

[keysersoze123]

its less than 50 user ratings and 2 user reviews so far. That is just a noise. None of the folks who rated low bothered to even leave a review. 

 

Key data to share is walkups are robust so far. That is to be expected with many states  having spring break. But we are just into peak hours and its not even 4PM on west coast. California has no spring break this week. So most of the audience will wait for peak hours for walkups. 

Edited March 16, 2023 by keysersoze123

[TheFlatLannister]

22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 

Ok, maybe not...Sub $30M is most likely happening 

 

SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS ALL FRIDAY SHOWINGS --- ORLANDO 

 

T-2 

 

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
147	1342	23618	5.7%

 

roughly 2 hours since review embargo lifted 

 

comps 

SCREAM VI T-2 - 19.3% sold

CREED III T-2 - 10.9% sold

65 T-2 - 7.7% sold

 

Disney Springs AMC is performing okay, Cinemark meh, and rural chains are performing poorly 

SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS ALL FRIDAY SHOWINGS --- ORLANDO 

 

T-1

 

FINAL UPDATE

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
147	1740	23618	7.4%

SEATS SOLD TODAY
398

 

 

 

A nice jump in the last hours of sales, but a little too late for a rebound

 

comps 

SCREAM VI T-1 - 21.1% sold

CREED III T-1 - 11.5% sold

65 T-1 - 7.9% sold

[keysersoze123]

13 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

SHAZAM! FURY OF THE GODS ALL FRIDAY SHOWINGS --- ORLANDO 

 

T-1

 

FINAL UPDATE

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
147	1740	23618	7.4%

SEATS SOLD TODAY
398

 

 

 

A nice jump in the last hours of sales, but a little too late for a rebound

 

comps 

SCREAM VI T-1 - 21.1% sold

CREED III T-1 - 11.5% sold

65 T-1 - 7.9% sold

What were actual number of tickets sold comps. You are just comparing % sold. 

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:45am - 12:10pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	165	21921	23167	1246	5.38%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

177

 

T-0 [Mid-Day] Comps

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS [12:15-12:45]	74.61		327	1670		0/111	15173/16843	9.92%		2352	52.98%		3.06m
LTBC [12:00-12:50]	19.64		1216	6343		0/247	27313/33656	18.85%		7712	16.16%		2.28m
ET [12:00-12:30]	23.45		642	5314		0/136	13154/18468	28.77%		6409	19.44%		2.23m
GBA [12:00-12:45]	49.98		413	2493		0/192	21771/24264	10.27%		3034	41.07%		2.25m
Morb [12:00-12:40]	43.02		414	2896		0/183	21262/24158	11.99%		3477	35.84%		2.45m
Sonic 2[11:40-12:05]	38.37		364	3247		0/126	12668/15915	20.40%		3951	31.54%		2.40m
Nope [12:00-12:30]	43.64		596	2855		0/160	18458/21313	13.40%		3822	32.60%		2.79m
BA [11:35-12:25]	34.42		466	3620		0/250	28058/31678	11.43%		4494	27.73%		2.62m
AM3 [11:35-12:25]	13.27		979	9392		0/308	27981/37373	25.13%		10475	11.89%		2.32m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Shazam 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Not much to say that hasn't been already said.

 

Well, will note that DC has been historically soft in Sacramento for whatever reason, but even the Black Adam comp isn't anything to write home about.  The Suicide Squad, being an R-rated film, won't be as good as a comp.  But then again, maybe the ATP hikes since then will counteract that to some degree.

 

Either way, no real change locally.

 

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [3:55pm - 4:15pm]

*NOTE:  All showtimes that started before 3:55pm were sampled at the start of that showing.

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	166	21658	23321	1663	7.13%

 

Total Showings Added Since Mid-Day	1
Total Seats Added Since Mid-Day	154
Total Seats Sold Mid-Day	417

 

T-0 Comps

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS [5:40-6:10]	70.71		682	2352		0/111	14491/16843	13.96%		2352	70.71%		2.90m
LTBC [3:50-4:35]	21.56		1369	7712		0/249	26023/33735	22.86%		7712	21.56%		2.50m
ET [4:50-5:20]	25.95		1095	6409		0/147	12843/19252	33.29%		6409	25.95%		2.47m
GBA [3:50-4:30]	54.81		541	3034		0/192	21230/24264	12.50%		3034	54.81%		2.47m
Morb [3:50-4:30]	47.83		581	3477		0/188	21171/24648	14.11%		3477	47.83%		2.73m
Sonic 2 [3:55-4:15]	42.09		704	3951		0/126	11964/15915	24.83%		3951	42.09%		2.63m
Bats [3:00-4:30]	14.14		1279	11757		1/328	27144/38901	30.22%		11757	14.14%		3.06m
Nope [3:45-4:35]	43.51		967	3822		0/160	17491/21313	17.93%		3822	43.51%		2.78m
BA [3:45-4:35]	37.00		874	4494		0/250	27184/31678	14.19%		4494	37.00%		2.81m
AM3 [3:45-4:30]	15.88		1083	10475		0/307	26899/37374	28.03%		10475	15.88%		2.78m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Shazam 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Relatively decent walkups, at least compared to prior pace.   To few sales to really overthink this so let's go with 2.8m +/- .2m.

 

Did decide to throw in a The Batman comp due to DC under-performance locally, but even that only points to 3.1m. 

 

But wouldn't be surprised if these numbers are just off since I never ever track small openers, and it's dicey to compare a very small movie to even the Black Adam's of the world.  Find out soon enuf.

Edited March 16, 2023 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, Porthos said:

 

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [3:55pm - 4:15pm]

*NOTE:  All showtimes that started before 3:55pm were sampled at the start of that showing.

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	166	21658	23321	1663	7.13%

 

Total Showings Added Since Mid-Day	1
Total Seats Added Since Mid-Day	154
Total Seats Sold Mid-Day	417

 

T-0 Comps

	%		Sold Since Mid-Day	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
TSS [5:40-6:10]	70.71		682	2352		0/111	14491/16843	13.96%		2352	70.71%		2.90m
LTBC [3:50-4:35]	21.56		1369	7712		0/249	26023/33735	22.86%		7712	21.56%		2.50m
ET [4:50-5:20]	25.95		1095	6409		0/147	12843/19252	33.29%		6409	25.95%		2.47m
GBA [3:50-4:30]	54.81		541	3034		0/192	21230/24264	12.50%		3034	54.81%		2.47m
Morb [3:50-4:30]	47.83		581	3477		0/188	21171/24648	14.11%		3477	47.83%		2.73m
Sonic 2 [3:55-4:15]	42.09		704	3951		0/126	11964/15915	24.83%		3951	42.09%		2.63m
Bats [3:00-4:30]	14.14		1279	11757		1/328	27144/38901	30.22%		11757	14.14%		3.06m
Nope [3:45-4:35]	43.51		967	3822		0/160	17491/21313	17.93%		3822	43.51%		2.78m
BA [3:45-4:35]	37.00		874	4494		0/250	27184/31678	14.19%		4494	37.00%		2.81m
AM3 [3:45-4:30]	15.88		1083	10475		0/307	26899/37374	28.03%		10475	15.88%		2.78m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Shazam 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Relatively decent walkups, at least compared to prior pace.   To few sales to really overthink this so let's go with 2.8m +/- .2m.

 

Did decide to throw in a The Batman comp due to DC under-performance locally, but even that only points to 3.1m. 

 

But wouldn't be surprised if these numbers are just off since I never ever track small openers, and it's dicey to compare a very small movie to even the Black Adam's of the world.  Find out soon enuf.

Magic is gonna die today I think.

Spoiler

Blame California not having spring beak

 

[TheFlatLannister]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

What were actual number of tickets sold comps. You are just comparing % sold. 

 

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

What were actual number of tickets sold comps. You are just comparing % sold. 

Creed - 3005 SOLD / 25984 SEATS 

Scream - 4332 SOLD / 20496 SEATS 

65 - 552 SOLD / 7022 SEATS 

Shazam - 1740 SOLD / 23618 SEATS 

 

[Eric is Quiet]

On 3/15/2023 at 8:00 PM, Eric Batson said:

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	107	673	20143	3.34%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 122

 

Comp - T-1

0.615x of The Suicide Squad (2.52M)

0.208x of Shang-Chi (1.83M)

0.184x of Eternals (1.75M)

0.420x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (1.89M)

0.364x of Morbius (2.08M)

0.278x of Sonic 2 (1.73M)

0.391x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (2.35M)

0.162x of Jurassic World: Dominion (2.91M)

0.291x of Black Adam (2.21M)

Shazam! Fury of the Gods Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	107	1210	20143	6.01%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 537

 

Comp

0.595x of The Suicide Squad (2.44M)

0.255x of Shang-Chi (2.24M)

0.229x of Eternals (2.18M)

0.545x of Ghostbusters: Afterlife (2.45M)

0.443x of Morbius (2.52M)

0.358x of Sonic 2 (2.24M)

0.514x of Fantastic Beasts 3 (3.08M)

0.192x of Jurassic World: Dominion (3.46M)

0.343x of Black Adam (2.6M)

 

So 2.5M? Yeah, 2.5M.

[Ronin46]

Box office report

 

Predictions for this weekend's top 9 films at the domestic box office.

 

Rank	Film (Distributor)	Weekend Gross	Total Gross	% Change	Week #
1	Shazam! Fury of the Gods (Warner Bros. / New Line)	$31.0 M	$31.0 M	NEW	1
2	Scream VI (Paramount)	$19.5 M	$78.2 M	-56%	2
3	Creed III (MGM)	$16.5 M	$128.7 M	-39%	3
4	65 (Sony / Columbia)	$5.7 M	$22.3 M	-54%	2
5	Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania (Disney)	$4.5 M	$206.3 M	-37%	5
6	Cocaine Bear (Universal)	$4.3 M	$58.9 M	-31%	4
7	Jesus Revolution (Lionsgate)	$3.6 M	$45.7 M	-30%	4
8	Champions (Focus)	$3.4 M	$11.6 M	-34%	2
9	Avatar: The Way of Water (Disney / 20th Century)	$1.9 M	$679.1 M	-28%	14

[TheFlatLannister]

So I should have stuck with my initial $30M prediction🤔?

[filmlover]

1. Shazam's numbers are absolutely terrible near me. Think sub-$30M is definitely happening now.

2. Showtimes are starting to appear for Renfield and it begins at 5:00 that Thursday.

[GOGODanca]

80 Verified audience score at 50+ ratings

[Dragoncaine]

Just now, GOGODanca said:

80 Verified audience score at 50+ ratings

It's over

[DAJK]

Holy, the numbers I'm looking at. They aren't pretty...