The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[LOGAN'sLuckyRun]

Sadly I'm not too surprised by GoTG's low sales. I haven't kept up with the MCU in a while

[superduperm]

2 minutes ago, LOGAN'sLuckyRun said:

Sadly I'm not too surprised by GoTG's low sales. I haven't kept up with the MCU in a while

Honestly feels like the MCU ended with No Way Home for most people. End Game was the climax and No Way Home was the “may as well see the epilogue because it’s loaded with nostalgia” hoorah.

 

Barring a big swing in the next couple years, I’ll be surprised if Secret Wars is as big as End Game.

[CJohn]

Quantumania kinda feels like it killed all the hype around superhero movies. Its crazy how it feels so different after it.

[Eric Quinn]

9 minutes ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

Eric I regret to inform you that r/boxoffice found this.

 

[CJohn]

4 minutes ago, Count Eric said:

 

BOT -> r/boxoffice -> The Trades

 

Expect articles mentioning a 100M OW early next week.

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

nvm

Edited April 15, 2023 by AMC Theaters Enjoyer
Image messed up

[vafrow]

I've been a bit surprised by the trades all coalescing around the $120-130M forecasts when the data here has been pointing to at minimum a risk of something quite a bit lower. My assumption has been that they either have different data that suggests it's got a higher floor, or more likely, $120M is as low as they can go without the perception of panic, and look foolish if it does rally and hit the higher end of its range.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Got to agree here. We have data from 5 chains and multiple big markets like Phily and Sacramento. I think even @Menor Reborn aluded that Marcus was also trending lower. We have not gotten any numbers to conflict that. So that is 6 chains. 

 

Its not just that Guardians has started badly(starting presales during Mario's crazy OW was not optimal). But even post Mario's OW, sales are well below Ant 3 levels and the trend have not changed at all. If anything its gotten worse. Its selling still around 70% of Ant 3 in its 13th day of its presales start. Let us not even compare these numbers with Thor or BP. They were at even higher levels than Ant. Assuming no catalyst until week before release, at low 70s level of Ant, it needs a huge ramp up to even catch up with Ant 3. I definitely see missing 100m as not just possible but probable. 

 

Plus its friday sales are not backloaded as well. its at 51K at MTC1 just now vs 93644 for previews(taken overnight yesterday). Even at MTC2 where friday tends to catch up its at 38800 (as of yesterday night) as opposed to thursday previews of 54566(just finished). Beyond all the domestic chains even Canada and Australia are behind Ant 3 !!! So its not an anomaly but a consistent pattern. 

 

I was in the camp of this performing the best among all MCU movies in 23/24 and actually have better presales start than Thor. But its closer to 60% of Thor which started a week later than Guardians/Ant. 

 

I am really surprised that little is being done from Disney to change the trend. I would look at early premier and even fan shows to build up hype. 

 

Anyway since I mentioned let me rather post numbers as well. 

 

MTC1 Thursday(T-20) - 93644/1147444 1675410.10 7014 shows +1535 // yesterday night

MTC1 Friday  - 51022/1269590 935123.64 6876 shows

MTC2 Thursday - 54566/590003 781744.87 3753 shows +1299 // just now

MTC2 Friday - 38800/825436 518385.07 5265 shows // This is as of yesterday 

It's not that Marcus is trending low, I haven't been able to get data. Just waiting to get some free time to take a look at the script and figure out what's going wrong. 

[Porthos]

FWIW, I think I've seen some tentative signs of recovery in Sacramento.  But I haven't really commented on it all that much because trying to figure out how much is genuine recovery, again if slight, and how much of it is just a post-Easter bounce I don't know.

 

But when I say "tentative" I really do mean that as it's only the last three days where GOTG3 has pulled to almost even with AM3 on day-to-day sales and in fact surpassed it yesterday.

 

        AM3   GOTG3
T-23:   127    114
T-22:   119    105
T-21:   104     93
T-20:    63     76

 

 

Next couple of days is when it started to become apparent that AM3 was not going to be a juggernaut after all and that expectations needed to be recalibrated downwards.  Well, actually T-20 was, but the next few days solidified it.  GOTG3 really needs to start doing better than AM3 did in that spell. 

[charlie Jatinder]

. Edited April 16, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[charlie Jatinder]

. Edited April 16, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Moderation 

I know I gave a warning less than a week ago about derailing the tracking thread with non-tracking discussions. The next time it happens in mass there's gonna be thread bans and warning points. 

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

T-25 to T-21 MTC 1

 

BP 2 - 10.8K

Ant Man 3 - 10.4K

 

GoTG 3 - 6.9K

 

Ant Man was just whole lot stronger than what $17.5M previews you see now. 

But Ant-man was already trending well down from the biggies last year when you look at daily pace. It was inevitable that it would finish below what opening day presales indicated. Guardians is following the same path. not just absolute number but daily pace is meager compared to what DS2/Thor did last year. Wakanda had a longer presales cycle and so had a different presales path and had much stronger Friday sales due to Veterans day. 

 

Guardians is just weak at this point. We are 2 weeks into its cycle. Its most probably going to meander along until final week and there is only so much it can recover. best case I can see Ant 3 level previews. That wont be enough to come in the ball park of 150m. Best case I can see is 120m. 

[charlie Jatinder]

. Edited April 16, 2023 by charlie Jatinder

[Eric Quinn]

Moderation

 

We don’t need MCU eulogies/speculation in the Tracking Thread every time Guardians 3 does bad numbers. It’s off topic and distracts from what the thread’s purpose is. I will move the off-topic posts to the Disney Thread later, which is where broader MCU discussion should go.

[keysersoze123]

21 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

It wasn’t. As I mentioned BP2 comparison. AM3 pace was similar to BP2 despite smaller start. AM3 peaked at T-16 point when T-x comp were $25M itself and then started the down turn.

Ant T-14 was 3/4th of Wakanda. It sold 16K the week before that as opposed to Wakanda which sold 23.5K. Wakanda had another week of presales as opposed to Thor or Ant. If you look at Thor it sold 38.5K with similar presales cycle. To me trend was quite clear it was going down big time. I did not see Antman movie playing as wide as movies in 2022 based on previous movie's performance at height of MCU hype. So I disagree with your 25m projections both in absolute number and relative pace. 

[filmlover]

One thing to keep in mind (if a nuanced take is even welcome amidst all the premature proclamations of doom and gloom) is that the previous Guardians also opened the last time Cinco de Mayo fell on a Friday (with previews that Thursday before) and that might cause another round of backloading again here (looking around near me it already seems to have sold more seats for that Saturday than for that Friday). I remember there was slight surprise when that movie was a bit on the backloaded side, and that one also arguably had more "sky is the limit" expectations attached to it compared to this so.

[Ryan Reynolds]

38 minutes ago, filmlover said:

One thing to keep in mind (if a nuanced take is even welcome amidst all the premature proclamations of doom and gloom) is that the previous Guardians also opened the last time Cinco de Mayo fell on a Friday (with previews that Thursday before) and that might cause another round of backloading again here (looking around near me it already seems to have sold more seats for that Saturday than for that Friday). I remember there was slight surprise when that movie was a bit on the backloaded side, and that one also arguably had more "sky is the limit" expectations attached to it compared to this so.

 Thursday is another more important holiday ☺️

[Porthos]

On 4/15/2023 at 2:38 AM, Porthos said:

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-34 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	27121	27765	644	2.32%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

10

 

T-34 Comp:

%

Sold T-34

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

JWD

48.79

69

1320

0/168

22354/23674

5.58%

33839

1.90%

8.78m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      98/10167  [0.96% sold]
Matinee:    12/3540  [0.34% | 1.86% of all tickets sold]

 

Fast X Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-33 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	182	27086	27744	658	2.37%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

14

 

T-33 Comp:

%

Sold T-33

Total Sold

Sellouts Shows

Seats Left Total Seats

Perct Sold

Final Sold

% of Final

Comp

JWD

48.31

42

1362

0/168

22312/23674

5.75%

33839

1.94%

8.70m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Fast X's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     100/10146  [0.99% sold]
Matinee:     14/3533  [0.40% | 2.13% of all tickets sold]

Edited April 17, 2023 by Porthos

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-20 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	206	26483	29666	3183	10.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

76

 

T-20 Comps:

	%		Sold T-20	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	34.35		132	9266		0/329	31642/40908	22.65%		21117	15.07%		12.37m
L&T	57.61		234	5525		0/228	26075/31600	17.48%		16962	18.77%		16.71m
BP2	51.24		114	6212		1/294	30810/37022	16.78%		16800	18.95%		14.35m
AM3	77.05		63	4131		0/235	28425/32556	12.69%		10475	30.39%		13.48m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     570/11075  [5.15% sold]
Matinee:    96/3555  [2.70% | 3.02% of all tickets sold]
3D:            351/5522  [6.36% | 11.03% of all tickets sold]

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-19 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	206	26377	29647	3270	11.03%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

87

 

T-19 Comps:

	%		Sold T-19	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	34.57		193	9459		0/329	31449/40908	23.12%		21117	15.49%		12.45m
L&T	57.57		155	5680		0/228	25920/31600	17.97%		16962	19.28%		16.70m
BP2	51.79		102	6314		1/294	30708/37022	17.05%		16800	19.46%		14.50m
AM3	78.38		41	4172		0/235	28384/32556	12.81%		10475	31.22%		13.72m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      589/11054  [5.33% sold]
Matinee:      97/3555  [2.73% | 2.97% of all tickets sold]
3D:            360/5501  [6.54% | 11.01% of all tickets sold]

Edited April 16, 2023 by Porthos