The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	273	29558	35864	6306	17.58%

 

Total Net Showings Added Today	46
Total Net Seats Added Today	3914
Total Net Seats Sold Today	587

 

T-3 Comps:

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	123.79		469	5094		0/193	22219/27313	18.65%		9196	68.57%		19.22m
ET	183.47		397	3437		0/118	13711/17148	20.04%		6409	98.39%		19.70m
MoM	40.97		1037	15390		0/368	28239/43629	35.27%		21117	29.86%		14.75m
L&T	62.38		550	10109		0/251	23592/33701	30.00%		16962	37.18%		18.09m
Bats	93.16		748	6769		0/324	31752/38521	17.57%		11757	53.64%		20.12m
BP2	57.08		914	11048		2/355	30945/41993	26.31%		16800	37.54%		15.98m
AM3	88.97		474	7088		0/269	28018/35106	20.19%		10475	60.20%		15.57m
JWD	104.01		795	6063		0/281	26773/32836	18.46%		10966	57.51%		18.72m
TGM	81.33		624	7754		1/324	33685/41439	18.71%		11474	54.96%		15.66m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

BW & ET COMP NOTE:  The Black Widow comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.17594x to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post, while Eternals has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x purely to reflect the difference in ATP.

 

Regal:     1442/11427  [12.62% sold]
Matinee:    263/3276  [8.03% | 4.17% of all tickets sold]
3D:            783/6396  [12.24% | 12.42% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Bit back down to earn after yesterday, but still much better than it had been.  Gun to my head, kinda feeling 18m-ish in previews right now.  We'll see if it keeps up the momentum as we enter the final stretch.

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	318	31900	39089	7189	18.39%

 

Total Showings Added Today	45
Total Seats Added Today	3225
Total Seats Sold Today	883

 

T-2 Comps:

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
BW	123.95		706	5800		0/241	25079/30879	18.78%		9196	78.18%		19.24m
ET	182.79		496	3933		0/130	14226/18159	21.66%		6409	112.17%		19.63m
MoM	43.38		1182	16572		0/383	28323/44895	36.91%		21117	34.04%		15.62m
L&T	63.79		1161	11270		0/311	28171/39441	28.57%		16962	42.38%		18.50m
Bats	90.79		1149	7918		0/326	30853/38771	20.42%		11757	61.15%		19.61m
BP2	60.28		879	11927		2/375	31211/43138	27.65%		16800	42.79%		16.88m
AM3	93.67		587	7675		0/289	28754/36429	21.07%		10475	68.63%		16.39m
JWD	104.81		796	6859		0/288	26655/33514	20.47%		10966	65.56%		18.87m
TGM	82.53		957	8711		2/344	34293/43004	20.26%		11474	62.65%		15.89m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of GOTG3's current tickets sold versus that final number.

BW & ET COMP NOTE:  The Black Widow comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.17594x to reflect the lack of Ontario and the ATP differences between now and then, with the same methodology as explained in this post, while Eternals has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x purely to reflect the difference in ATP.

 

Regal:     1649/12813  [12.87% sold]
Matinee:    322/3816  [8.44% | 4.48% of all tickets sold]
3D:            888/6510  [13.64% | 12.35% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Another strong day locally. 👍

 

NB:  Thor 4 had its first post-Fourth of July sales day, and will see somewhat inflated sales all the way through the final bell. Just something to keep in mind.

[charlie Jatinder]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Just for Jat, went ahead and added a Wick 4 comp, R-rating difference be damned.

 

...

 

Also added a Black Adam comp because the idea of The Rock vs Vin Diesel amused me.

I think JW4, F9 & Black Adam are gonna end up pretty good comps.

[JohnnyGossamer]

6 hours ago, DisposedData said:

Agreed. It was the only remake that seemed to have legitimate strong word of mouth, everyone seemed impressed. 

Jungle Book absolutely had strong WOM too. Beauty and the Beast WOM wasn't bad either. Cinderella had decent enough WOM too. Heck, even Lion King had a 2.85 multiplier off a 192M OW DOM. 

 

I actually think Cruella has/had the best WOM of any remake but, of course, opened in the middle of COVID. I also think it's easily the best of the Disney animated to live action movies since that trend started.

Edited May 3, 2023 by JohnnyGossamer

[M37]

As mentioned previously, I have a family event this week, so my big last update before we get actual numbers. Preview chart below through, and can see the big curve upwards since reviews & reactions on T-7, but appears to be leveling off a bit in last round of updates (Alpha update pending, which I expect to land between 185-190K)

 

 

To my eye, given the big late surge by BPWF and especially Thor that sets a high bar, I think we're heading towards a preview of around $17M (which is coincidentally what GOTG2 made for its preview Thursday). But still room to level off to as low as $16M, or pace enough to still hit $18M+

 

As for the weekend overall, the daily pattern and resulting IM still looks murky. Just by gut feeling about audience and lesser expected fan rush, think it at least hits a 6x, and the data mostly backs that up, but Friday pre-sale numbers are not great as compared to Thursday, while Saturday looks relatively strong. (Maybe a Cinco de Mayo effect limiting Friday sales?). Expecting around $80M through Saturday, give or take a few million in either direction, with Sunday dependent on the path it takes to get to that total (and WOM)

 

On 4/23/2023 at 9:22 AM, M37 said:

OW Range: $80-105M

Its been an interesting 10 days, huh?

 

On 4/23/2023 at 10:05 AM, M37 said:

Even if GOTG3 ultimately ends up at $90M+ or even $100M+, wanted to plant a flag at how low the floor has become with present data. I personally don't think that will happen, from my own gut feeling to it being Fandango's most anticipated movie of 2023, but rather to caution how much of a course correction is needed from present standing to even get to what most would consider "disappointing" range

The course correction did indeed happen, but with 2 days left, the starting value was so low that it doesn't appear to have been enough to jump all the way up to the $120-$130M range, though probably at least topping $100M for OW (though enough uncertainty that I wouldn't use the L word just yet).

 

Throw a dart, find the answer

GOTG3 OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$15.0	$15.5	$16.0	$16.5	$17.0	$17.5	$18.0	$18.5	$19.0
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.70	$85.5	$88.4	$91.2	$94.1	$96.9	$99.8	$102.6	$105.5	$108.3
	5.85	$87.8	$90.7	$93.6	$96.5	$99.5	$102.4	$105.3	$108.2	$111.2
	6.00	$90.0	$93.0	$96.0	$99.0	$102.0	$105.0	$108.0	$111.0	$114.0
	6.15	$92.3	$95.3	$98.4	$101.5	$104.6	$107.6	$110.7	$113.8	$116.9
	6.30	$94.5	$97.7	$100.8	$104.0	$107.1	$110.3	$113.4	$116.6	$119.7
	6.45	$96.8	$100.0	$103.2	$106.4	$109.7	$112.9	$116.1	$119.3	$122.6
	6.60	$99.0	$102.3	$105.6	$108.9	$112.2	$115.5	$118.8	$122.1	$125.4
	6.75	$101.3	$104.6	$108.0	$111.4	$114.8	$118.1	$121.5	$124.9	$128.3
	6.90	$103.5	$107.0	$110.4	$113.9	$117.3	$120.8	$124.2	$127.7	$131.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 3, 2023 by M37

[RamblinRed]

44 minutes ago, M37 said:

As mentioned previously, I have a family event this week, so my big last update before we get actual numbers. Preview chart below through, and can see the big curve upwards since reviews & reactions on T-7, but appears to be leveling off a bit in last round of updates (Alpha update pending, which I expect to land between 185-190K)

 

 

To my eye, given the big late surge by BPWF and especially Thor that sets a high bar, I think we're heading towards a preview of around $17M (which is coincidentally what GOTG2 made for its preview Thursday). But still room to level off to as low as $16M, or pace enough to still hit $18M+

 

As for the weekend overall, the daily pattern and resulting IM still looks murky. Just by gut feeling about audience and lesser expected fan rush, think it at least hits a 6x, and the data mostly backs that up, but Friday pre-sale numbers are not great as compared to Thursday, while Saturday looks relatively strong. (Maybe a Cinco de Mayo effect limiting Friday sales?). Expecting around $80M through Saturday, give or take a few million in either direction, with Sunday dependent on the path it takes to get to that total (and WOM)

 

Its been an interesting 10 days, huh?

 

The course correction did indeed happen, but with 2 days left, the starting value was so low that it doesn't appear to have been enough to jump all the way up to the $120-$130M range, though probably at least topping $100M for OW (though enough uncertainty that I wouldn't use the L word just yet).

 

Throw a dart, find the answer

GOTG3 OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$15.0	$15.5	$16.0	$16.5	$17.0	$17.5	$18.0	$18.5	$19.0
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	5.70	$85.5	$88.4	$91.2	$94.1	$96.9	$99.8	$102.6	$105.5	$108.3
	5.85	$87.8	$90.7	$93.6	$96.5	$99.5	$102.4	$105.3	$108.2	$111.2
	6.00	$90.0	$93.0	$96.0	$99.0	$102.0	$105.0	$108.0	$111.0	$114.0
	6.15	$92.3	$95.3	$98.4	$101.5	$104.6	$107.6	$110.7	$113.8	$116.9
	6.30	$94.5	$97.7	$100.8	$104.0	$107.1	$110.3	$113.4	$116.6	$119.7
	6.45	$96.8	$100.0	$103.2	$106.4	$109.7	$112.9	$116.1	$119.3	$122.6
	6.60	$99.0	$102.3	$105.6	$108.9	$112.2	$115.5	$118.8	$122.1	$125.4
	6.75	$101.3	$104.6	$108.0	$111.4	$114.8	$118.1	$121.5	$124.9	$128.3
	6.90	$103.5	$107.0	$110.4	$113.9	$117.3	$120.8	$124.2	$127.7	$131.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Love the dart chart! Great way to visually represent the higher and lower odds of preview and OW grosses.

 

The chart does make it look like it is levelling off just a little from a few days ago.

I'm hoping for something like $18/$120 but that may be alot to ask based on the current data.

[ZackM]

On 5/2/2023 at 8:30 AM, ZackM said:

 

 

The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
5/1/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	57	57	4,928	17,116	28.79%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	0	1
ATP
$46.30

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	142	5	7	8	1
Seats Added	18,074	265	679	1,256	167
Seats Sold	15,307	10,424	7,044	7,901	5,088
5/1/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	431	7,081	168,325	1,146,392	14.68%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	5	58	207	402
ATP
$17.06

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
	Ant-Man: Quantumania		Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2
T-3	$14.8	$14.5	$16.4	$16.9	$16.6	$17.0
T-4	$14.3	$14.0	$16.1	$16.7	$16.0	$16.4
T-5	$13.8	$13.6	$15.9	$16.4	$15.5	$15.9
T-6	$13.5	$13.4	$15.8	$16.3	$15.2	$15.7
T-7	$13.1	$13.0	$15.5	$16.1	$14.9	$15.4
T-8	$13.0	$12.8	$15.5	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-9	$12.9	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.8	$15.3
T-10	$13.0	$12.9	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-11	$12.9	$12.8	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-12	$12.8	$12.7	$15.5	$16.1	$14.8	$15.2
T-13	$12.8	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-14	$12.8	$12.7	$15.7	$16.3	$15.1	$15.6
T-15	$12.8	$12.7	$15.9	$16.5	$15.2	$15.7
T-16	$12.8	$12.7	$16.0	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8
T-17	$12.8	$12.6	$15.9	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8

 

Unfortunately, basically no growth yesterday.

 

The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 days
5/2/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	57	57	5,064	17,116	29.59%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	0	0	1
ATP
$46.31

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3 Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-2 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	163	142	5	7	8
Seats Added	15,602	18,074	265	679	1,256
Seats Sold	15,962	15,307	10,424	7,044	7,901
5/2/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	431	7,244	184,287	1,161,994	15.86%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	8	63	243	449
ATP
$16.95

 

 

Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps
	Ant-Man: Quantumania		Black Panther: WF		Thor: Love & Thunder
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1
T-2	$15.2	$14.9	$16.4	$17.0	$16.7	$17.1
T-3	$14.8	$14.5	$16.4	$16.9	$16.6	$17.0
T-4	$14.3	$14.0	$16.1	$16.7	$16.0	$16.4
T-5	$13.8	$13.6	$15.9	$16.4	$15.5	$15.9
T-6	$13.5	$13.4	$15.8	$16.3	$15.2	$15.7
T-7	$13.1	$13.0	$15.5	$16.1	$14.9	$15.4
T-8	$13.0	$12.8	$15.5	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-9	$12.9	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.8	$15.3
T-10	$13.0	$12.9	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-11	$12.9	$12.8	$15.6	$16.2	$14.7	$15.2
T-12	$12.8	$12.7	$15.5	$16.1	$14.8	$15.2
T-13	$12.8	$12.7	$15.6	$16.1	$14.9	$15.3
T-14	$12.8	$12.7	$15.7	$16.3	$15.1	$15.6
T-15	$12.8	$12.7	$15.9	$16.5	$15.2	$15.7
T-16	$12.8	$12.7	$16.0	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8
T-17	$12.8	$12.6	$15.9	$16.5	$15.3	$15.8

[keysersoze123]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Guardians

MTC2 Previews(T-3) - 108811/644742 1561043.04 4318 shows 

 

Guardians MTC2 Previews(T-2) - 123100/743048 1754747.99 5335 shows +14289

 

Relative to MTC1 this is a good increase. I think this will over index in MTC2. 

[ZackM]

If it under-indexes at Alpha we're probably looking at 18 or 18.5.  Which probably puts the weekend in the 115 range, I think.

[TwoMisfits]

37 minutes ago, ZackM said:

If it under-indexes at Alpha we're probably looking at 18 or 18.5.  Which probably puts the weekend in the 115 range, I think.

 

Did Ant 3 overindex at MTC 1, 2, or both (neither)?  Just mentally doing some calculus on the heartland turnout or lack thereof...  

[ZackM]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Did Ant 3 overindex at MTC 1, 2, or both (neither)?  Just mentally doing some calculus on the heartland turnout or lack thereof...  

Ant-Man 3 over-index a bit at Alpha.  Comps had it around 18.5, but it ended up at 17.5.

[keysersoze123]

11 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Did Ant 3 overindex at MTC 1, 2, or both (neither)?  Just mentally doing some calculus on the heartland turnout or lack thereof...  

Ant 3 over indexed everywhere :-) MTC2 finish - 235371/803067 3245994.75. 

 

I am just going to comp with Ant 3 at the end. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Normal day in MiniTC2 as well. Probably some external factor in Alpha.

[PrinceRico]

So is 110 still a realistic number? This data is confusing.

[ChipDerby]

Make sure you all predict in the Derby!
 

https://derby.boxofficetheory.com/Predictions.aspx

[M37]

9 minutes ago, PrinceRico said:

So is 110 still a realistic number? This data is confusing.

Yes, but looking a little less likely than a day ago at this time. Next round of updates should give better indication of trajectory and possible OW totals 

[PrinceRico]

14 minutes ago, M37 said:

Yes, but looking a little less likely than a day ago at this time. Next round of updates should give better indication of trajectory and possible OW totals 

Thanks. Still shocked this will come close to AM3 weekend. I thought Thor4 opening was already disappointing enough but that might be a win at this point.

[SpiderByte]

12 hours ago, GOGODanca said:

because it had incredible word of mouth, had nothing to do with the brand, couldn't even open to 100m

You think Joker would have made a billion if it didn't have anything to do with Batman?

[Tinalera]

Guardians of the galaxy 3

Thurs May 4 Fri May 5 (T-2)

Toronto and Montreal:

 

Seat adjustments/comp I will do later, just dropping basic numbers-got a lot going on this week 

 

 

 

 

Toronto	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	39	1979	6467	8446	0.2344
Fri	4	70	2035	15328	17363	0.1172
Montreal	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	4	30	1184	7221	8405	0.1408
Fri	3	45	1071	12358	13429	0.0797

 

Antman Quantum comp

 

 

	T2	# theatre	#show		Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Toronto	Thurs	4	36	2518	7614	10132	0.2485
	Fri	4	37	2248	7288	9536	0.2357
		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Quebec	Thurs	4	29	1294	6783	8077	0.1602
	Fri	4	23	1078	5219	6297	0.1711

 

Also threw this together (this is an experiment and playing around with difference for T-2 If it seems goobledy apologies, Im trying to fit my rather outside the box thinking to work with numbers (These probably aren't the Comps of Seat gains that was suggested, Im still figuring out how I want to do that  )

 

Gotg	8446	17363	8405	13429
Ant	10132	9536	8077	6297
Diff	-1686	7827	328	7132

                          TT        TF              MT          MF

In very short with this chart Antman Toronto Thurs had sold more seats than GOTG, leaving GOTG 1686 less seats sold

 

Ant Toronto Fri and Montreal both days GOTG sold more, though interesting the difference for Montreal Thurs is a lot less than Tor F and Mon F 

 

(If this totally confuses you, apologies-I tend to be an outside the box thinker who tries different things to get things to fit in my head, and I have to get creative when it comes to numbers )

 

EDIT: Im a dummy, those numbers are TOTAL seats (Sold+remaining) for those days, as opposed to Seats sold (still I think it is still interesting data, as it shows the variation of how many seats were total inventory-which makes the Thurs Toronto -1686 less seats avail an interesting outlier compared to rest of the availablity)

 

As an aside, thank you everyone for being patient and giving me suggestion/guidance and not losing your minds with me-numbers have never been a thing Ive worked with, so Im trying to stretch muscles that don't get stretched.  Thank you for your patience and acceptance, it means more than you know 

Edited May 3, 2023 by Tinalera

[TheFlatLannister]

18 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY

T-23

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	1924	32751	5.9%

^{*Numbers taken as of 6:30pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

60

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

ATP: $14.38

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

THURSDAY

 

T-22

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	1976	32751	6.0%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

52

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

ATP: $14.38

[kayumanggi]