The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[vafrow]

Some updates from my theatre (Milton, Ontario)

 

Book Club has 11 tickets sold as the early show is about to close. Nothing sold for the late show. Compares to 10 tickets sold for Are You There God, It's Me Margaret. 

 

Blackberry has 6 tickets sold at my theatre. That compares to 6 for Renfield. Blackberry is obviously a very different release strategy.

 

Note, I did check Waterloo area, which is ground zero for this film. Sales picked up today. Up to 64 tickets sold. That's respectable at least. But, expect low numbers for this film unfortunately, even on a per theatre average.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 5/10/2023 at 7:25 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY 

T-15

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	2409	32751	7.4%

^{*Numbers taken as of 7:00pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

108

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

ATP: $14.38

 

Another strong day of sales 

 

 

 

COMPS

T-16

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.468x) ~$8.4M THUR

 

Mario 

(0.611x) ~$19.5M THUR

 

I think i might stop using Mario as comp. It had a pretty steady pace then exploded in the final days so it throws off numbers 

 

Anyways, I will post it for now 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY 

T-14

 

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
170	2477	32751	7.6%

^{*Numbers taken as of 7:00pm EST}

 

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

68

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

ATP: $14.38

 

 

COMPS

T-14

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.476x) ~$8.6M THUR

 

Mario 

(0.607x) ~$19.4M THUR adjusted for previews ~$14.4M THUR

[keysersoze123]

 

Interesting. Since when does Empire have access to any presales !!! Anyway not sure what is he comping with. I dont think presales are great or anything, but atrocious is a strong word. 

[grey ghost]

I wonder which will flop harder? Fast X or Transformers.?

 

Oh how the mighty have fallen.

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

I wonder which will flop harder? Fast X or Transformers.?

 

Oh how the mighty have fallen.

Both of them will underwhelm. If Fast X has a higher budget its the one getting dinged more. Biggest question is overseas gross. Which one will have a better OS run. Domestically there is not much hope for either. 

[TwoMisfits]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Interesting. Since when does Empire have access to any presales !!! Anyway not sure what is he comping with. I dont think presales are great or anything, but atrocious is a strong word. 

 

He reads us, obviously:).

 

As a reminder, Fast 9 demo was diverse (with 37% Hispanic, 35% Caucasian, 16% Black and 8% Asian) and skewed to both young (51% under the age of 25) and male (57%).  The 1st 2 (skew Hispanic and majority young) buy late, right?  So, it's gonna be harder to peg the opening number til the very last minute...

 

Edited May 12, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Ledmonkey96]

I mean fast 9 should be a pretty good comparison despite being deeper in covid.

[SpiderByte]

Yikes, at least Transformers makes hand over fist in toy sales, but I definitely thought it'd at least come over Bumblebee.

[jedijake]

Transformers is DOA. Fast X still has an audience and has fallen more slowly. But Transformers....let's call it a blown Transformer. 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

33 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

I wonder which will flop harder? Fast X or Transformers.?

 

Oh how the mighty have fallen.

Probably Transformers cause of what TwoMisfits mentioned, as well as the fact that Fast at least has the finale angle in its marketing while Transformers doesn’t really have a hook beyond being another Transformers movie.

 

If there’s one thing the F&F movies are good at it’s their ability to keep the movies feeling like events. It’s the only series to my knowledge to have premieres for the trailers.
 

[filmlover]

6 hours ago, JayPrimetown said:

I know it's fun to talk about tracking for films coming out next month, but any insights into the films coming out this week?

Not really, no. Book Club 2 might hit double digits due to Mother's Day on Sunday but is otherwise looking to be the latest in a long line of rejected comedy sequels. The various other openers are movies no one has even heard of and will accordingly make pennies.

[Lurrrrk]

1 hour ago, grey ghost said:

I wonder which will flop harder? Fast X or Transformers.?

 

Oh how the mighty have fallen.

Fast X is not flopping lol

[ThomasNicole]

6 minutes ago, Lurrrrk said:

Fast X is not flopping lol

With 340M budget it better gross a billion or it is flopping, maybe not much like some TF projections but still...

[reddevil19]

What does he mean by RELATIVELY, though? 

Like, 8 million previews, 60 OW, 140 dom? By previous heighs and the budget, sure, that's not great, but it's not far off the ninth one...

[Lurrrrk]

4 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

With 340M budget it better gross a billion or it is flopping, maybe not much like some TF projections but still...

If it makes 950m it's not a flop. A disappointment? maybe. But it would need to gross less than 2x it's budget to truly be considered a flop.

[GOGODanca]

fast and furious is an OS dominant franchise, the 8th movie made like 250m domestically and 1b OS, will it make a profit? probably not but it will make a lot of money, hardly bomb status

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

Just now, GOGODanca said:

fast and furious is an OS dominant franchise, the 8th movie made like 250m domestically and 1b OS, will it make a profit? probably not but it will make a lot of money, hardly bomb status

The problem is that F9 had a serious drop off in box office overseas. Yeah there was COVID but the response was still generally unenthusiastic. There’s no guarantee that will improve with this one especially since there’s more competition this time than there was for 9 and the consistent rumor is that the film isn’t great itself. 

[ThomasNicole]

7 minutes ago, Lurrrrk said:

If it makes 950m it's not a flop. A disappointment? maybe. But it would need to gross less than 2x it's budget to truly be considered a flop.

while i don´t think that will happen, maybe it won´t be that off tbh 

 

the way things are going it will probably made the same of F9 DOM, China presales seems lower than for F9, unless OS-C grow up quite a bit which is possible to be fair, there´s a quite good chance imo it will made around the same thing F9 did so 720-750M

 

certainly big numbers but the astronomical budget will put it in flop territory, even if not bomb territory, let´s see how it goes i don´t know why budget was so bigger this time

 

but the presales aren´t so bad like EC said, it seems like it should match F9 opening DOM 

[Eric Prime]

On 5/10/2023 at 9:15 PM, I Am Eric said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-8 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	107	915	21824	4.19%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 39

 

Comp - T-8

0.913x of F9 (6.48M)

0.429x of Jurassic World 3 (7.72M)

2.024x of Nope (12.95M)

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-7 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	107	974	21824	4.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 59

 

Comp - T-7

0.923x of F9 (6.55M)

0.435x of Jurassic World 3 (7.84M)

1.976x of Nope (12.64M)

[Eric Prime]

On 5/10/2023 at 9:23 PM, I Am Eric said:

The Little Mermaid Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-15 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	1367	28586	4.78%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 81

 

Comp - T-15

2.836x of Sonic 2 (17.73M)

0.853x of Jurassic World 3 (15.36M)

2.205x of Black Adam (16.76M)

0.763x of Avatar 2 (12.97M)

0.866x of Mario (27.46M)

The Little Mermaid Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	153	1500	28586	5.25%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 133

 

Comp - T-14

2.988x of Sonic 2 (18.67M)

0.895x of Jurassic World 3 (16.11M)

2.283x of Black Adam (17.35M)

0.810x of Avatar 2 (13.77M)

0.884x of Mario (28.04M)