The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[ZackM]

The Flash Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days
	Last Day
Showings Added	2,657
Seats Added	513,926
Seats Sold	33,870
5/23/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	424	2,657	33,870	513,926	6.59%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	1	9	27
ATP
$18.81

[Joyous Legion]

3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

No way its going that low. Its friday presales are fine where I see it. I think at least 25m true friday will happen. 

Guess we will see but I think 25 from 12.5 is QUITE optimistic. If previews get up to like 15 then sure maybe

Edited May 24, 2023 by Legions of the Galaxy

[SpiderByte]

4 hours ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

 

I do agree sales should definitely be better but don't think it will be as front loaded as the MCU considering where the brand is and audiences are less willing to dish out tickets for a DC film compared to an MCU entry.

DCs last few movies don't indicate that, even if you exclude the COVID ones.

 

Edited: the front loaded part, I mean

Edited May 24, 2023 by SpiderByte

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

Guess we will see but I think 25 from 12.5 is QUITE optimistic. If previews get up to like 15 then sure maybe

I dont agree with 12.5 as well. Let us wait and see. 

[M37]

5 hours ago, stephanos13 said:

Way overreaction just from a few hours of sales for The Flash.

 

I think Flash will have $100M+ weekend with ease.

While there has been some overreaction (and also denial) after Day 1 of Flash sales, what I've mostly seen is re-calibration.  For example, this was me before:

On 5/23/2023 at 8:46 AM, M37 said:

On the same token, let's not overreact to what I'm expecting to be VERY good OD sales for Flash. The hype is real, but probably dies down after a few days, and gut feeling it treks a path more like an MCU film than the better late kicking DC (Batman/BA) titles

Welp, clearly that was wrong (or we're heading towards like a $50M OW). I'm not one who believes the first day or few days of sales are determinative, but they absolutely do set the baseline from which extrapolation happens, and there are somewhat predictable patterns, and therefore limits to get from A-->B

 

... and getting to a high enough Thursday preview value from starting value for a $100M OW is a tough path. The only thing we can say for sure that is that (extremely vocal online) fan base just isn't that big (or at least couldn't be bothered to put their $ where their mouths are on Day 1 of sales).

 

The question from here is how GA friendly Flash (the DC brand) plays. If it stays more in the CBM lane (lower GA/fan ratio) then there's going to be a LOT of disappointment. Do think there is a plausible scenario where being the last June release to go on sale, the general state of DCEU, plus separate screenings all combined to take some of the wind out of the sails for the kick-off day. From there you can squint your way towards roughly a lower teens preview, but in June that likely wouldn't be enough for a $100M OW, unless we see a true outlier trajectory from here

Edited May 24, 2023 by M37

[charlie Jatinder]

32 minutes ago, ZackM said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-37 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago
Showings Added	17	2,435
Seats Added	2,684	498,507
Seats Sold	1,441	17,357
5/23/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	417	2,452	18,798	501,191	3.75%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	1	2	4	6
ATP
$18.37

@ZackM can you add a gross column along with atp. thanks.

[charlie Jatinder]

33 minutes ago, ZackM said:

The Flash Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days
	Last Day
Showings Added	2,657
Seats Added	513,926
Seats Sold	33,870
5/23/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	424	2,657	33,870	513,926	6.59%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	1	9	27
ATP
$18.81

YIKES. Less than Eternals.

[Dlund87]

10 hours ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

You can’t completely determine the outcome of course but you can develop a pretty healthy sense of the general range — and the “how” of it is by comparing to lots of other movies 12 hrs vs how they finished

How do you check presales? Honestly I'm just going to Fandago and seeing how the theaters are filling up seat wise. Thursday sales seem to fill up more in imax with online ticket sales while the regular theaters don't start filling up until just before the release or walk ups. Always curious to see how others track it. 

[efialtes76]

16 hours ago, GOGODanca said:

Suicide Squad

With Batman, Harley and Joker...

[Jiffy]

Bad news abounding.

[keysersoze123]

Indy Day 2 is meh. So not going to do much until final week. 

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

YIKES. Less than Eternals.

Nope higher. It sold 3K for 2/12 imax shows. Plus Eternals had among the worst presales run. I would rather compare this to Black Adam. Its doing ok. Flash wont be received as badly as Eternals, Ant-man 3 or Shazam 2. 

[stripe]

3 hours ago, jedijake said:

So $120 million 3-day and over $140-150 million 4-day is on the table?

 

IMHO, more likely 110M than120M 3day.

Maverick had stellar WOM and grossed 126M 3day after a 19.3M previews and 33M true Friday.

 

 

[stripe]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

While there has been some overreaction (and also denial) after Day 1 of Flash sales, what I've mostly seen is re-calibration.  For example, this was me before:

Welp, clearly that was wrong (or we're heading towards like a $50M OW). I'm not one who believes the first day or few days of sales are determinative, but they absolutely do set the baseline from which extrapolation happens, and there are somewhat predictable patterns, and therefore limits to get from A-->B

 

... and getting to a high a high enough Thursday preview value from starting value for a $100M OW is a tough path. The only thing we can say for sure that is that (extremely vocal online) fan base just isn't that big (or at least couldn't be bothered to put their $ where their mouths are on Day 1 of sales).

 

The question from here is how GA friendly Flash (the DC brand) plays. If it stays more in the CBM lane (lower GA/fan ratio) then there's going to be a LOT of disappointment. Do think there is a plausible scenario where being the last June release to go on sale, the general state of DCEU, plus separate screenings all combined to take some of the wind out of the sails for the kick-off day. From there you can squint your way towards roughly a lower teens preview, but in June that likely wouldn't be enough for a $100M OW, unless we see a true outlier trajectory from here

 

Could we have an scenario similar to The Batman/Guardians3? A scenario where an important part of the audience is reluctant to buy tickets until quality confirmed. If it happens, could we talk about a change of pattern regarding the way audience receives a new CBM entry?

[kayumanggi]

 

[M37]

Since a few people have asked, and the main trackers have their hands full juggling 3-6 major releases, I did a spot check on Boogeyman for the Tampa/St Pete market. As of T-9

 

Wed (EA) = 35

Thur = 55

 

No breakout here, but non-brand horror is notoriously backloaded, so not terrible either. I don't have any direct comps, but this sample in previous spot checks has had roughly the same total volume as the Philly, Sacto and Jax/Pho/Ral markets. Using some of those sales numbers, for M3GAN, Black Phone and Smile, come with a [large MOE] estimate of ~$2-$3M Thursday

 

Again, very much a back of envelope process here so don't hold me to that range, but thought it would be at least worth getting some idea. Will check again sometime over the weekend, but with the genre and holiday, most of the action is going to happen from T-2 and beyond.

[Maggie]

Box Office: ‘The Little Mermaid’ Swimming to $120 Million-Plus Over Memorial Day Weekend

 

https://variety.com/2023/film/news/little-mermaid-box-office-memorial-day-holiday-weekend-1235623771/

[cooldude97]

13 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

That would be awful considering how big seems it's going to be domestic 

[WorkingonaName]

the U.S is the only thing keeping TLM afloat. 

[Inceptionzq]

17 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Flash Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

102

2188

4.66%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

48

1179

4.07%

 

Monday: 149

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
321	N/A	20180	1.59%	13	106

 

0.436x Guardians first 11 hours (7.62M)

0.343x Ant-Man 3 first 14 hours (5.99M)

1.89x Black Adam first 23 hours (14.35M)

0.185x Thor L&T first 8.5 hours (5.36M)

0.272x Batman first 6.5 hours (5.88M)

0.798x Eternals first 10 hours (7.58M)

0.786x Black Widow first 7 hours (10.37M)

 

Keep in mind, this is only the first 6.5 hours of sales (it started at 9AM PT/12PM ET right?), so the Marvel comps are undershooting it. But still, don't think this is a good start for a 100M+ opening

The Flash Denver Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total

151

2188

6.90%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

78

1179

6.62%

 

Monday: 168(+19)

Thursday:

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST 17 HOURS	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
491	170	20180	2.43%	13	106

 

0.471x Guardians 3 Day 2 (8.25M)

0.389x Ant-Man 3 24 hours (6.81M)

2.65x Black Adam 24 hours (20.11M)

0.213x Thor L&T 24.5 hours (6.18M)

0.291x Batman 24 hours (6.29M)

0.848x Eternals Day 2 (8.06M)

0.835x Black Widow Day 2 (11.03M)

 

Looks like the trailer during the NBA game yesterday helped. I wonder if Denver will see a better boost compared to other non Florida and New England markets though since they have a reason to be paying more attention. Note that only the Thursday numbers are 24 hours of sales, the Monday numbers are 48 hours of sales.