The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[vafrow]

On 5/22/2023 at 8:40 AM, vafrow said:

I've started tracking my local theatre (Milton, Ontario) more actively. Single theatre, so not the best representation, and I don't have much in the way of comps. 

 

However, at T-4 on Little Mermaid, I do have a comparison now with Fast X. However, Fast X looks like it overperformed locally, and Little Mermaid is on the opposite end.

 

The result is a Thursday opening of $4.9M. Obviously it's clearly not aligned to other numbers here, but, I figure one of the general rules of statistical analysis is not withholding data just because it's an outlier.

For comparison, Across the Spiderverse has sold almost 4X the tickets as Little Mermaid already despite an additional week to release.

 

Milton, Ontario

 

Sales continue to be slow at my theatre. For morning of, it's at 29 tickets sold, which is 38.2% of Fast X, for a preview number of $2.9M. It's clearly under indexing here compared to the other trackers.

 

Some other quick comparisons of films I have morning of stats

 

0.155x of GOTG3 for $2.7M

2.42x of Dungeons and Dragons for $13.6M

0.09x Super Mario for $2.87M

 

 

It leaves lots of room for walk ups, but I'm not expecting anything too different. I'm in a very young and kid skewing suburb, so, I'm surprised this is performing so poorly here. Spiderverse (which I'll try and create a separate post for) is doing extremely well for example.

 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Legions of the Galaxy said:

 Might as well put 17.5M in the bank for marvels at this rate 🧐

So we are skipping ahead of first day of sales as well?

[vafrow]

Milton, Ontario

Across the Spiderverse Thursday Previews 

 

T-8

Tickets sold is 100 even. Sales have been remarkably steady since it launched. 

 

Comps at T-8 are limited for me, but this is what I have.

 

8.33x Fast X for $63.3M

5.55x Little Mermaid for ???

 

Obviously, not helpful comps, but, does signal that this movie is doing well.

 

Bizarrely, it only is on one screen, and they didn't add more showtimes when they released this coming week. They're locked into a lot of films though, so the only way they can get a second screen for the weekend is taking it away from TLM, which based on performance thus far, would make sense, but, they might be locked into a Disney contract for that second screen.

[JohnnyGossamer]

8 hours ago, Sckathian said:

I don’t really understand why some are so hot on Flash being a massive hit. For me it’s got a lot going against it - definitely an interesting one. Will be good to see how it performs, GotG showed there might be some ‘let’s see if it’s good first’ for CBMs.

Early word from screenings seems pretty positive. Nostalgia hit of having Keaton, Shannon, Affleck, etc. all in the same movie. Obviously not the same as having 3 Spider guys together in No Way Home but it's still something. Good marketing with some great trailers. Great release date with Father's Day Sunday followed directly by Juneteenth on Monday it OW DOM. So, even if the opening weekend isn't huge, there's room for word of mouth to spread really fast and that Monday number could blow up.

 

Might not start as fast as I initially expected, but if word of mouth is good it should clean up until Indy. And, Indy will open big even with middling reviews but Flash also has 4th of July early enough in its run to get a nice bump during that week too with many taking off multiple days around the holiday in the US.

[M37]

7 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Early word from screenings seems pretty positive. Nostalgia hit of having Keaton, Shannon, Affleck, etc. all in the same movie. Obviously not the same as having 3 Spider guys together in No Way Home but it's still something. Good marketing with some great trailers. Great release date with Father's Day Sunday followed directly by Juneteenth on Monday it OW DOM. So, even if the opening weekend isn't huge, there's room for word of mouth to spread really fast and that Monday number could blow up.

 

Might not start as fast as I initially expected, but if word of mouth is good it should clean up until Indy. And, Indy will open big even with middling reviews but Flash also has 4th of July early enough in its run to get a nice bump during that week too with many taking off multiple days around the holiday in the US.

An opening around but below Wonder Woman, good WOM but not quite on that levels of legs, finishing at 80-85% of DOM is probably near the optimal outcome. Especially if Indy is weak, there’s really nothing else until MI7 in early July 

[John Marston]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

An opening around but below Wonder Woman, good WOM but not quite on that levels of legs, finishing at 80-85% of DOM is probably near the optimal outcome. Especially if Indy is weak, there’s really nothing else until MI7 in early July 

 

Lol Indy not being competition? I’m ts a huge release with large brand recognition and will take away screens. It’s hurting The Flash that weekend 

[keysersoze123]

Mermaid MTC2 Previews(T-1) - 74287/583436 1049092.29 4241 shows

 

Probably headed up around 130-140K. Should be sufficient to hit the number I posted yesterday night with MTC1. But this is not over performing at MTC2. But here again I expect Friday to be the day. Let us see how walkups go today. 

[ZackM]

On 5/24/2023 at 9:51 AM, ZackM said:

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-37 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago
Showings Added	17	2,435
Seats Added	2,684	498,507
Seats Sold	1,441	17,357
5/23/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	417	2,452	18,798	501,191	3.75%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	1	2	4	6
ATP
$18.37

 

There's something weird with yesterday's data that's causing the ATP to jump a ton.  I don't know what's causing it, but I'm going to post the data as-is and monitor it moving forward.

 

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-36 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago
Showings Added	2	17	2,435
Seats Added	128	2,684	498,507
Seats Sold	490	1,441	17,357
5/24/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	417	2,454	19,288	501,319	3.85%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	1	1	2	4	7
ATP	Gross
$18.66	$359,914

[misterpepp]

Blackening tix on sale June 1

Edited May 26, 2023 by datpepper

[ZackM]

On 5/24/2023 at 9:52 AM, ZackM said:

The Flash Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-23 days
	Last Day
Showings Added	2,657
Seats Added	513,926
Seats Sold	33,870
5/23/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	424	2,657	33,870	513,926	6.59%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	1	9	27
ATP
$18.81

Same ATP jump with The Flash, so it must be something on the Alpha side of things.

 

The Flash Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago
Showings Added	17	2,657
Seats Added	3,602	513,926
Seats Sold	5,157	33,870
5/24/2023	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	425	2,674	39,027	517,528	7.54%
% of Seats Sold	100%	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	0	2	13	34
ATP	Gross
$19.05	$743,464

[TheFlatLannister]

20 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
219	5332	37562	14.2%

^{*numbers taken as of 4:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

661

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

NOTE: *This is probably overindexing by a bit because of Disney influence

 

 

COMPS

T-1

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.568x) ~$10M THUR

 

JOHN WICK 4

(1.962x) ~$17.5M THUR

 

Average: $13.75M THUR Previews

 

Put me down for $12M-$12.5M Previews 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION

 

The Little Mermaid

 

THURSDAY

 

T-0 *Final update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
219	6698	37562	17.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 1:00pm EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

1366

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

1

ATP: $14.56

 

$97,522 approx gross 

 

 

COMPS (Adj for ATP)

T-0

 

GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL 3 

(0.619x) ~$10.8M THUR

 

 

Guardians comp seems to point to ~$11Mish for Thursday previews. With early access included i'll go with $11.5M

 

Excellent final day. Thinking this weekend it overperforms a lot $110M+ 3 day

Edited May 25, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[Sckathian]

6 hours ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Early word from screenings seems pretty positive. Nostalgia hit of having Keaton, Shannon, Affleck, etc. all in the same movie. Obviously not the same as having 3 Spider guys together in No Way Home but it's still something. Good marketing with some great trailers. Great release date with Father's Day Sunday followed directly by Juneteenth on Monday it OW DOM. So, even if the opening weekend isn't huge, there's room for word of mouth to spread really fast and that Monday number could blow up.

 

Might not start as fast as I initially expected, but if word of mouth is good it should clean up until Indy. And, Indy will open big even with middling reviews but Flash also has 4th of July early enough in its run to get a nice bump during that week too with many taking off multiple days around the holiday in the US.

Keaton - I don't think will have much nostalgia buy in, it's actually just been too long. Only thing I'll give here is he's before my time but I still watched his films as a kid.

 

Affleck - I mean he's the Batman from very poorly received films and financial failures. I like him but I doubt wider audiences care.

 

Shannon - 600M film hardly going to explode now.

 

But as I say it's an interesting one to watch especially how reviews impact it. If it follows a GotG sequel trajectory then clearly audiences have adapted to over saturation by seeking out what's worth watching.

[M37]

53 minutes ago, ZackM said:

Same ATP jump with The Flash, so it must be something on the Alpha side of things.

Ticket price increase company-wide for the summer movie season? This would be about the time they would roll it out (if not already for GOTG3) 

[filmlover]

Early tracking for Elemental shows a $40M opening.

 

‘Elemental’ Projected to Earn $40 Million Box Office Opening, Ranking Among Pixar’s Lowest (thewrap.com)

[ringedmortality]

Movies are dead

[Pinacolada]

21 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Movies are dead

July 21st weekend is gonna be such a banger tho with MI7, Oppenheimer, and Barbie. Easy at least $30m+ weekend for all 3. Could easily be higher too

 

There r just some duds in June. Disney has all but killed Pixar, so Elemental looking to do not great numbers isn't surprising in the slightest. Indy 5 is just getting a pretty bad start in reviews so that's not helping its case, which already hasn't felt that strong post-the trailers. The Flash, tho is apparently good and WOM will help, DC is in a bad state (at least in the public consciousness) and just feels like a lame duck movie (Ik most people aren't as tapped in online as we are, but I feel like most people know about either Ezra Miller, or the fact that this shit is all getting rebooted, OR again, they just view DC as kind of a joke now). Transformers, I mean.... no one gives a shit anymore, the trailers look bad, and it has no stars. As for TLM, maybe people are starting to wisen up for these lazy ass Disney remakes

 

Just hoping No Hard Feelings can do some decent numbers, and Asteroid City gets a better total than French Dispatch

Edited May 25, 2023 by Pinacolada

[joselowe]

30 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Movies are dead

Definitely think after 2023 studios are going to see that audiences are fatigued of franchises, remakes and films on popular toys/comics. Disney kind of went into overkill after seeing the success of the Marvel films. That’s why Avatar was so successful because it was a fresh concept. 

[Porthos]

11 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 day and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	225	24182	29156	4974	17.06%

 

Total Showings Added Today	4
Total Seats Added Today	266
Total Seats Sold Today	1002

 

T-1 Comps:

	%		Sold T-1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	172.53		787	2883		0/125	12991/15874	18.16%		3951	125.89%		10.78m
JWD	59.08		1560	8419		0/290	25319/33738	24.95%		10966	45.36%		10.63m
BA	157.70		585	3154		0/249	28462/31616	9.98%		4494	110.68%		11.99m
Scream VI	218.25		498	2279		0/116	11326/13605	16.75%		3134	158.71%		12.44m
Wick 4	127.05		716	3915		0/173	17327/21242	18.43%		5448	91.30%		11.31m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:        790/8203  [9.63% sold]
Matinee:    240/1556  [15.42% | 4.83% of all tickets sold]
3D:            537/4318  [12.44% | 10.80% of all tickets sold]
———    

Wed:    540/1517      [35.60% sold] [+214 tickets] [FINAL]
Thr:    4434/27639  [16.04% sold] [+788 tickets]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.832x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-1 [14.75m]    
TLM = 0.99869x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-1  [13.78m]    
TLM = 0.57116x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-1   [15.11m]    
TLM = 1.19209x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-1     [11.65m]   

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

 

The Little Mermaid Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (MID-DAY REPORT) [11:40am - 12:15pm]

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	225	23553	29156	5603	19.22%

 

Total Seats Sold Since Last Night

629

 

T-0 (Mid-Day) Comps:

	%		Sold Since Last Night	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
GBA [12:00-12:25]	224.75		413	2493		0/192	21771/24264	10.27%		3134	178.78%		10.11m
Sonic 2 [11:40-12:05]	172.56		364	3247		0/126	12668/15915	20.40%		3951	141.81%		10.78m
JWD [12:00-12:50]	59.04		1071	9490		0/290	24248/33738	28.13%		10966	51.09%		10.63m
BA [11:35-12:25]	154.78		466	3620		0/250	28058/31678	11.43%		4494	124.68%		11.76m
Wick 4 [11:45-12:20]	128.95		430	4345		0/185	18230/22575	19.25%		5448	102.85%		11.48m
GOTG3 [11:30-12:20]	60.91		836	9199		0/345	32602/41801	22.01%		10750	52.12%		10.66m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of TLM's current tickets sold versus that final number.

  
Regal:        956/8203  [11.65% sold]
Matinee:    438/2559  [17.12% | 7.82% of all tickets sold]
3D:             637/4318  [14.75% | 11.37% of all tickets sold]
———

Wed:          540/1517  [35.60% sold] [FINAL]
Thr:       5063/27639  [18.32% sold] [+629 tickets]
———    
***EXTREMELY UNOFFICIAL COMPS***    
TLM = 1.67357x Aladdin at the same sources of tracking at T-1 [13.47m]    
TLM = 0.94432x TS4 at the same sources of tracking at T-1      [13.03m]    
TLM = 0.56369x TLK at the same sources of tracking at T-1      [14.91m]    
TLM = 1.18919x F2 at the same sources of tracking at T-1           [11.62m]     

NOTE:  All of the above comps have been adjusted upward by 15% to account for differences in ATP from 2019 and 2023.

 

===

 

Removed the Scream VI comp as it had long outlived its usefulness, added GBA and GOTG3 comps.  Might add Minions 2 at final bell.  Solid enough start, if a bit uneven in the region.  Have to see how the rest of the day goes, but looking like 10.5m - 11.25m is the range from Sacto comps, especially with early access and 3D factored in.

Edited May 25, 2023 by Porthos

[kayumanggi]

 

[grey ghost]

Movies arent dead.

 

Movie concepts that have been ran into the ground are dead.