The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Gavin Feng]

48 minutes ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

Even 70 is quite a clear highball at this point

already that bad?

 

no way they would keep Miller after this one except WBD want to be a masochist.

[reddevil19]

2 hours ago, Phoenix22 said:

Not sure, Black Adam opened to $140M WW and managed to hit $393M and that was without China and with worse reviews than Flash and also without any JL member; let's say that it opens to $160M WW then with the 2.8x legs of BA it does $448M.

 

I'll say: 

OW: $80M

DOM: $195M

WW: $320M 

Total: $515M 

 

And that would be enough to just break even which at least it won't make them lose money after PVOD and home media and streaming rights, probably it could make a cute profit of around $50M - $70M in the end. 

It's looking pretty DOA here in the UK too. It also is getting fewer screens than Spider-Verse in quite a few locations. Its one chance is walk-ups but with the weather looking the way it is...seems unlikely. Think most of Europe will be a hard pass for Flash. China will also be pretty much a non-factor from presales there. It really needs WOM to be strong soon as it opens. Right now if the opening is 80 or so OS, I can't see how it gets past 300 even with summer weekdays ahead.

 

 

[AJG]

24 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

already that bad?

 

no way they would keep Miller after this one except WBD want to be a masochist.

 

Don't worry. Deadline has an explanation for the numbers that I don't think the tracking thread has taken into account. Ezra Miller's fandom is out there.

 

Quote

One assumption is that those being polled by tracking aren’t admitting that they have ulterior motives to really see the Miller movie this weekend. Flash previews start at 3 p.m Thursday.

 

[SirFireHydrant]

Totally anecdotal, but at the biggest theatre in my area, on the biggest screen, the 6pm showing of The Flash this evening (Wednesday openings here in Australia), 7 tickets had sold when I checked at around 3pm. Dial of Destiny at the same 6pm showing same screen two weeks later, has sold 5 tickets. The 9pm showing tonight has sold 1 ticket. Thursday 6pm, 1 ticket. Friday 6pm, 1 group of 4 tickets. Hell, Spider-Verse in non-premium format has sold 12 tickets for its 7:45pm showing tonight. The Flash's non-premium 7pm showing (nearest comparison) has sold 9 tickets.

 

I can almost count on one hand the number of premium screen 6pm tickets The Flash has sold for its opening Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

 

Whilst it's just one cinema in one city of Australia, it's painting a really dire situation for The Flash.

Edited June 14, 2023 by SirFireHydrant

[TwoMisfits]

2nd local finally set...and the openers continue to lose, as does Fast X and Boogeyman (although GOTG 3 does take a small hit, too, b/c 12 screens does not go as far as 14)...

 

Flash - 3 screens/15 showings (almost no expansion)

Elemental - 2+ screens/11 showings (almost no expansion

Adipurush - 1+ screen

 

Somehow, the Blackening got unbooked, which is kinda a shock - that one's being left to fail...

 

Spidey and Transformers both are almost 2 screens.  Mermaid keeps 1.  And the Boogeyman and GOTG 3 split one, with the Boogeyman again getting 1 show (and GOTG 3 also giving a morning show to Elemental, so it's more like .6 screens for it).

 

Everything else is gone, including Fast X.  While it may have been a good Father's Day movie, it may not be around long enough to benefit anywhere except the biggest of screen locations...

 

PS - I know I'm getting more positive on Oppenheimer but this weekend may be a sign of that July weekend to come...

[cookie]

Flash sales for today here are… not great. Unless walkups are really strong, OD is looking weak. Spider-verse is actually not that far behind it RN.

Edited June 14, 2023 by cookie

[CJohn]

It is gonna mega tank here. Pre-sales are horrendous. Probably gonna open around the same terrible numbers Transformers did a week ago.

[reddevil19]

Yeah, I think OS is gonna be even more dire than domestic. Ooof.

[vafrow]

I've been tracking Elemental at my theatre (Milton, On) since it came along, but it's been at a single ticket sold for the last few weeks, so, not worth reporting.

 

However, the Saturday and Sunday sales have been decent, but almost all through a few big group blocks it seems of 10+ seats.

 

I have no benchmarks, but Saturday is at 70 tickets sold (Flash is at 51 for some basic benchmark).

 

Sunday is only at 23, which is surprising given fathers day, Flash only at 6.

 

Again, I don't have detailed comps to really do much with this, but it is encouraging that the weekend days are much better than previews.

[M37]

On 6/12/2023 at 7:52 PM, M37 said:

Flash T-4 (Ok, 3.5) Update

 

Isn't it ironic that a movie about a guy who can run really fast is having problems with ... pace? Not breaking any news here to anyone paying attention, but the trendline vs comps has not been good, pretty much on a steady downward trajectory across most samples [Drafthouse loves them some DC] since T-10 (would think reviews were on JWD level instead of ~70% RT)

 

 

While the raw average shown here is again probably a bit overstated, in that $10M for Thursday is now closer to the mid-point of the expected range than the lower bound, not totally ready to waive the white flag just yet.

 

The one [hopeful?] comp that Flash has been not really been sliding down against is Fast X. Now a big caveat that Fast X had tickets on sale forever, so there was probably less lower hanging fruit to pick off in the T-14 to T-4 time frame, but it did have an above average finish from where pace was looking at this same checkpoint. Now that we're basically in full summer, the baseline walk-up rate could be higher than even ATSV 2 weeks ago. Fast X is still probably not a great comp in terms of market performance/raw values, so it wouldn't hit the $12.5M shown for Orlando (other comps not shown are in similar ~$12M range), but doing just enough to wind up around $11M cannot be ruled out. YET

 

Finally, as far as potential IM, Friday sales still look weak in relation to Thursday, and not gaining much ground; if plays like a traditional CBM, the OW could get ugly, in that sub-$60M is very much in play. Not going to do an updated chart and/or forecast, but every indication is start eying that top left quadrant from the one above ...

 

This was only meant to be a joke!

Less than 2 days from release, and Flash sales remain .... soft, but also weird? Its not really following any typical pattern: pacing now well below the more GA friendly films like BA and ATSV, but also not like a typical CBM. I even did a spot check on the Tampa/St Pete market, not so much for volume but just too look at sales patterns and found ... even more weirdness.

IMO, there is clearly something going on "under the hood", disrupting typical sales patterns, and I have a guess as to what that might be [alas, this post is already long enough], but data is such that one can reasonably argue that its pulling an AMWQ-style big fan rush and little GA appeal and will continue to limp to the finish and IM poorly, or that it will be walk-up heavy (and IM better) from here, more similar to Fast X

 

Values vs the common comps continue the downward slide

 

But if you want some level of reasonable hopium, here's what I wrote on T-3 regarding Fast X, where the casual audience did in fact show up, and a walk-up friendly finish led to a $7.5M preview

On 5/16/2023 at 11:16 AM, M37 said:

In that last round of updates, only the Philly/JWD comp is over $7.8M, with that and Sacto/F9 (adj) the only ones topping even $7.2M. Smells to me like MTC1 is going to run a bit hot with the PLF draw, while the standard/casual audience is softer, and all together its heading towards a preview number closer to $7M (if not below).

 

And though data is more limited, here's how Flash has been holding vs Fast X comps: still some downwards motion in last day or two, but longer term track has mostly held steady.  Maybe the all that promo work & early review release helped to pull some sales earlier, with both Sacto and Orlando slightly ahead of where they landed at T-14, and outlier Philly coming back down to the pack

 

Again, I don't think necessarily believe those comp $ values will verify, but am watching the relative pace here closely, which does still keep $10M+ Thursday in play

 

I'm sure others are as tired of talking about this film as I am, but personally am not convinced we "have seen enough" to really nail down with reasonable precision what kind of sales and IM pattern will follow through Sunday. Anything from like $55M to $75M OW wouldn't surprise me from here

[Alexander]

Yeah, looking at my local cinema in my country I think both The Flash and Elemental will do poorly OS. Just 6 tickets sold between them out of 5200 available.

[WorkingonaName]

MI is gonna clean up overseas.

[reddevil19]

2 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

MI is gonna clean up overseas.

It's the only one that has a chance of beating GOTG3. Otherwise it's shaping up to be a pretty shit summer at the international box office IMO. 

[TwoMisfits]

MI7 is getting 3 screens (11 and 12 showings) at both my locals.  Better than Oppenheimer, but not quite as much as an MCU single character open.  Its problem for OW vs legs is gonna be it's length, b/c 10am, 2pm, 6pm, and 10pm maxes what can be seen in a day...now you know why it's a weeklong "weekend" open...

[TwoMisfits]

33 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

It's the only one that has a chance of beating GOTG3. Otherwise it's shaping up to be a pretty shit summer at the international box office IMO. 

 

Fast X is the current Hollywood summer leader at the INT BO - NOT GOTG 3, and it's not close.

 

WW, GOTG 3 is winning, but that's when it gets to add DOM...

[reddevil19]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

MI7 is getting 3 screens (11 and 12 showings) at both my locals.  Better than Oppenheimer, but not quite as much as an MCU single character open.  Its problem for OW vs legs is gonna be it's length, b/c 10am, 2pm, 6pm, and 10pm maxes what can be seen in a day...now you know why it's a weeklong "weekend" open...

Still a month to go...I'm sure cinemas will be cutting Elemental and Flash faster than normal if they end up underperforming. 

[reddevil19]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Fast X is the current Hollywood summer leader at the INT BO - NOT GOTG 3, and it's not close.

 

WW, GOTG 3 is winning, but that's when it gets to add DOM...

Ya, meant WW. I expect MI to be much bigger OS than GOTG3 but domestic is the question.

[Justin4125]

22 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Fast X is the current Hollywood summer leader at the INT BO - NOT GOTG 3, and it's not close.

 

WW, GOTG 3 is winning, but that's when it gets to add DOM...

 

I don't think the poster said anything about GOTG3 being the biggest, just that nothing will pass it (which suggests nothing will pass Fast X either). Also, I think they are relatively close (especially OS-china, though Fast X has a bit more in the "tank"). I tend to agree. I thought Flash would be the OS leader this summer, but outside of MI7 I don't see anything passing Guardians OS (post Indy reviews). Still holding out for Flash's legs, saw the film at a preview and while I'm more of a MCU guy, I was personally impressed (though I've learned my tastes aren't predictive of GA views)

Edited June 14, 2023 by Justin4125

[el sid]

Counted on Monday for Friday: Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (18 days to go):
 

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 130 (8 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 72 (14 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 7 (6 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 8 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 5 (6 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 212 (12 showtimes) 
LA (AMC Universal): 293 (14 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 727.
 

Up 62% since the last counting 11 days ago. An ok jump but not stellar.
Comps: Uncharted (11.7M true Friday/44M OW) had with 16 days left 276 sold tickets,
JW: D (41.55M/145.1M) had also with 16 days left 1.839 sold tickets.
Ghostbusters: Afterlife (12.1M/44M) had on Monday of the release week 514 sold tickets,
TLC (9M/30.5M) on the same day 196
and Death on the Nile (?/12.9M) had also on Monday of the release week 198 sold tickets.

Still far from a clear picture. The Ghostbusters: Afterlife and Uncharted comps look promising, the JW: D comp not at all (at least JW:D had with 9 days left 2.460 sold tickets, so not the biggest jump from 16 days left to 9 days left).

Overall close to 1k tickets with 2 ½ weeks to go isn't bad IMO but also not appeasing.

PS: The Blackening had yesterday 115 sold tickets for Thursday (with showtimes in 6 theaters).
In a few minutes new The Blackening numbers.

[el sid]

Counted a few minutes ago The Blackening had for Thursday 176 sold tickets.
Up quite good 53% since yesterday.
Comps: Renfield (900k from previews) had 316 sold tickets

and Honk for Jesus (?) had on Thursday = 1 day later 69 sold tickets.

And for Friday it had 181 sold tickets.
Comps (both counted on Wednesday of the release week for Friday): Easter Sunday (5.4M OW) had 243 sold tickets

and Renfield (8M OW) had 269 sold tickets.
Honk for Jesus (1.4M) had on Thursday = 1 day later 25 sold tickets.

Not even that bad for The Blackening. At least better than what I expected. Easter Sunday had only a small jump (22%) from Wednesday to Thursday so maybe it can be on par by tomorrow.

The Flash a bit later today.