The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[Tinalera]

Thor4

SW/Toronto Ontario t-2 (t-0 friday)

 

Thor4

SW/Toronto Ontario t-2 (t-0 friday)

 

thor4	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	20	288	11074	32598	43672	0.2535
Fri	20	373	8200	56224	64424	0.1794

 

Comps

 

X2.219 Jurassic dominion (7.32 Million Canada only, 130 million Canada/US)

X.7831 Doctor Strange 2 (4.855 Million, 70.47 million Canada/US)

 

Just like I thought show amount increased by 90, and total seats inventory increased by about 20,000 on the friday. Wed is always a fun day for doing cineplex numbers lol

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1466

3809

38.49%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1631

4985

32.72%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
7937	726	41246	19.24%	15	265

 

AMCs sold	5071
Cinemarks sold	1115
Regals sold	956
Harkins sold	795

 

1.16x Top Gun Maverick T-2 (22.40M)

0.669x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (24.07M) [+1059]

1.27x Batman T-2 (27.43M)

0.451x NWH T-2 (22.53M)

Thor Love and Thunder Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1614

4487

35.97%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1743

5187

33.60%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
9057	1120	44316	20.44%	15	314

 

AMCs sold	5548
Cinemarks sold	1352
Regals sold	1167
Harkins sold	990

 

1.21x Top Gun Maverick T-1 (23.38M)

0.707x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (25.45M) [+940]

1.29x Batman T-1 (27.92M)

0.470x NWH T-1 (23.50M)

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Denver Thursday Showings

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1614

4487

35.97%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1743

5187

33.60%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
9057	1120	44316	20.44%	15	314

 

AMCs sold	5548
Cinemarks sold	1352
Regals sold	1167
Harkins sold	990

 

1.21x Top Gun Maverick T-1 (23.38M)

0.707x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (25.45M) [+940]

1.29x Batman T-1 (27.92M)

0.470x NWH T-1 (23.50M)

Nice. Bigger day than DS2. Let us see if MTC1 nationwide mimics Denver. 

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex

 

T-2 Thursday(200 showings): 8826(+869)/49177

1.09x Top Gun Maverick T-2 (20.91M)

0.627x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (22.56M) [+1273]

1.17x Batman T-2 (25.29M)

0.365x NWH T-2 (18.23M)

 

T-3 Friday(258 showings): 5693(+788)/67683

0.546x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (29.89M) [+1547]

1.09x Batman T-3 (37.98M)

0.283x NWH T-3 (20.35M)

 

T-4 Saturday(264 showings): 3299(+432)/69227

0.485x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (28.04M) [+1117]

1.11x Batman T-4 (48.00M)

0.242x NWH T-4 (17.87M)

 

T-5 Sunday(253 showings): 1155(+143)/68879

0.660x Doctor Strange MoM T-5 (25.67M) [+208]

1.60x Batman T-5 (54.54M)

0.341x NWH T-5 (21.88M)

 

For some reason the marathon showing at Megaplex is under a business date of Wednesday, so I never picked it up until now. That's why the Thursday increase is only 869, I didn't count the marathon showing as new tickets sold. Also removed the Top Gun comp. It was never that great of a comp anyways, but the overperformance here is really showing.

Thor Love and Thunder Megaplex

 

T-1 Thursday(236 showings): 10136(+1310)/55313

0.654x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (23.55M) [+1407]

1.21x Batman T-1 (25.98M)

0.394x NWH T-1 (19.68M)

 

T-2 Friday(331 showings): 6939(+1246)/79863

0.578x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (31.63M) [+1584]

1.06x Batman T-2 (36.94M)

0.318x NWH T-2 (22.88M)

 

T-3 Saturday(335 showings): 3942(+643)/80933

0.503x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (29.07M) [+1037]

1.04x Batman T-3 (44.86M)

0.255x NWH T-3 (18.81M)

 

T-4 Sunday(324 showings): 1354(+199)/79733

0.617x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (23.99M) [+445]

149x Batman T-4 (51.02M)

0.335x NWH T-4 (21.49M)

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Thor Love and Thunder Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-2 Thursday(237 showings): 19083(+1249)/32770 ATP: $15.18

0.743x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (26.74M) [+2506]

1.19x Batman T-2 (20.99M, only using Thurs gross of 17.6M)

0.647x NWH T-2 (32.35M)

 

T-3 Friday(290 showings): 17292(+1607)/41301 ATP: $15.16

0.669x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (36.58M) [+3729]

0.927x Batman T-3 (32.43M)

0.636x NWH T-3 (45.72M)

 

T-4 Saturday(310 showings): 16435(+1751)/43889 ATP: $14.67

0.600x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (34.66M) [+3871]

0.840x Batman T-4 (36.32M)

0.587x NWH T-4 (43.39M)

 

T-5 Sunday(283 showings): 10145(+1298)/40690 ATP: $14.41

0.639x Doctor Strange MoM T-5 (24.85M) [+2188]

0.988x Batman T-5 (33.71M)

0.588x NWH T-5 (37.75M)

Thor Love and Thunder Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-1 Thursday(294 showings): 21943(+2860)/39400 ATP: $15.13

0.785x Doctor Strange MoM T-1 (28.26M) [+2261]

1.22x Batman T-1 (21.41M, only using Thurs gross of 17.6M)

0.650x NWH T-1 (32.52M)

 

T-2 Friday(410 showings): 20395(+3103)/54522 ATP: $15.01

0.700x Doctor Strange MoM T-2 (38.33M) [+3253]

0.933x Batman T-2 (32.67M)

0.69x NWH T-2 (45.95M)

 

T-3 Saturday(451 showings): 19023(+2678)/59388 ATP: $14.60

0.628x Doctor Strange MoM T-3 (36.31M) [+2873]

0.828x Batman T-3 (35.82M)

0.579x NWH T-3 (42.77M)

 

T-4 Sunday(406 showings): 11574(+1429)/54620 ATP: $14.32

0.651x Doctor Strange MoM T-4 (25.31M) [+1908]

0.956x Batman T-4 (32.62M)

0.585x NWH T-4 (37.56M)

[Menor the Destroyer]

On 7/4/2022 at 10:47 AM, Menor Reborn said:

Thor T-4 Marcus

Theaters: 85

 

Thursday:

Showings: 916 (+12)

Seats Sold: 30507/136711 (+6004 in 5 days)

 

Friday:

Showings: 1391 (-4)

Seats Sold: 20700/209035 (+5940 in 6 days)

 

Not a super great pace, but as I have said, I have been expecting the holiday weekend to depress things. 

 

*for Friday, the website has gone a bit wacky and a few shows aren't reachable even manually.

Thor T-2 Marcus (from last night) (2-day pace)

Theaters: 85

 

Thursday:

Showings: 1143 (+227)

Seats Sold: 37783/158737 (+7276)

 

Just don't have time for Friday today, way too many errors and don't have time to manually count all those shows. 

Edited July 6, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[keysersoze123]

BO is saying 135m+. So what has changed now. @Shawn

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-thor-love-and-thunder-looks-to-strike-with-135m-domestic-debut/

[filmlover]

Honestly the marketing for Thor has been pretty underwhelming. The most memorable "money shot" in the trailer is Thor having his clothes flicked off and a bunch of maidens passing out.

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Honestly the marketing for Thor has been pretty underwhelming. The most memorable "money shot" in the trailer is Thor having his clothes flicked off and a bunch of maidens passing out.

The marketing seems small-scale and uneventful probably because the movie is small-scale (at least per reviews). They could've sold it deceptively but that could be poison for legs. 

Edited July 6, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[TwoMisfits]

17 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

BO is saying 135m+. So what has changed now. @Shawn

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-thor-love-and-thunder-looks-to-strike-with-135m-domestic-debut/

 

Ummm, he finally started believing me?:)  Which might be a mistake, since I did have my biggest miss (and one of my few misses) of the year last weekend, but that obviously means I'm due again:)...

 

(If someone is taking this seriously, you may need to see the new Minions movie!)

[filmlover]

In other news, if Thor really comes under expectations that would be two Disney tentpoles in a row to miss their intended targets (Doctor Strange still made a crap ton more than the previous solo movie so its performance is more than acceptable). I'm sure that would make a number of people happy after their dominance between 2016-2019, minus a few misses (that could've been seen coming from miles away) here and there.

Edited July 7, 2022 by filmlover

[Tinalera]

16 minutes ago, filmlover said:

In other news, if Thor really comes under expectations that would be two Disney tentpoles in a row to miss their intended targets (Doctor Strange still made a crap ton more than the previous solo movie so its performance is more than acceptable). I'm sure that would make a number of people happy after their dominance between 2016-2019, minus a few misses (that could've been seen coming from miles away) here and there.

My personal total speculation is that it probably does around what Thor3 did. The numbers Im seeing in comparison to DR Strange 2 for SW Ontario/Toronto, its seat sales are a little less certainly not massively so. Thor4 seems to go be going for a "hero-romcom-fun-popcorn-light" type of film compared to Strange 2. now whether people who saw Strange 2 who weren't expecting the more serious/scariness of it are thrown off of Thor4 I don't know (the trailers and stuff seem to show a fun lighter movie).  For me I think now getting post covid, how the Disney marvel films gradually do from here is what Im watching. Is there a kind of continued baked in fanbase that keep it going, or do we (very slow) gradual start seeing a drop off over the next few mcu films. I guess I just wonder at what box office line does Disney start saying "yea okay we need to change stuff up" I think as long as they are making anywhere from 700 on up per Global Box office, they're good. But if the movies start to start topping off at around 5-600 million (box office numbers that almost every other studio would cry for), then I wonder what disney does. 

 

 

[XXR & Friends]

50 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

BO is saying 135m+. So what has changed now. @Shawn

 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-box-office-forecast-thor-love-and-thunder-looks-to-strike-with-135m-domestic-debut/

 

Specifically their prediction is $154M. 

[ViewerAnon]

Something’s felt off about THOR for a few weeks, though I can’t put my finger on what. I wonder if there’d be more momentum if this flipped release dates with DS2? That had the whole “mythology episode” hook whereas L&T looks decidedly more standalone.

 

The theaters in LA I’ve sampled have looked fine in terms of sales but not especially great. The Chinese IMAX still has hundreds of seats open for the 6 p.m. show tomorrow, which feels light for a big MCU movie.

 

Hoping Charlie and company are right and I’m just being a pessimist. I want the box office winning streak to continue.

[lorddemaxus]

2 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

Something’s felt off about THOR for a few weeks, though I can’t put my finger on what.

I think Marvel wasn't confident with the movie tbh, at least based on how late the marketing started and some of the rumors we've heard here. And this article indicates a messy post-production: https://www.indiewire.com/2022/07/thor-love-and-thunder-cut-scenes-1234737936/

[Flamengo81]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

In other news, if Thor really comes under expectations that would be two Disney tentpoles in a row to miss their intended targets (Doctor Strange still made a crap ton more than the previous solo movie so its performance is more than acceptable). I'm sure that would make a number of people happy after their dominance between 2016-2019, minus a few misses (that could've been seen coming from miles away) here and there.

Except the fact that this was not a solo movie and at least most definitely not sold as one. I think it is acceptable, but anything more than that I don't see it...

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

42 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I think Marvel wasn't confident with the movie tbh, at least based on how late the marketing started and some of the rumors we've heard here. And this article indicates a messy post-production: https://www.indiewire.com/2022/07/thor-love-and-thunder-cut-scenes-1234737936/

IMO they really should have just pushed Thor to Nov and BP to Feb 2023. 

 

Even if Thor had a messy production and fundamental issues or impending Taika backlash, you spend more time ironing them out as much you can and organically build buzz from there. Not throw out half-assed marketing 2 months before release and hope the brand and name carries you. 

[ZackM]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Nice. Bigger day than DS2. Let us see if MTC1 nationwide mimics Denver. 

Spoiler alert...it does.

[cedec0]

Quote

Something’s felt off about THOR for a few weeks, though I can’t put my finger on what. I wonder if there’d be more momentum if this flipped release dates with DS2? That had the whole “mythology episode” hook whereas L&T looks decidedly more standalone.

 

I think that endgame damaged Thor.   Everyone saw him become a basement dwelling, out-of-shape loser.  That image is seared into our minds.  Seeing your favorite character turned into a joke hurts.

 

This is probably the reason for the lack of excitement.

 

 

 

[ZackM]

 

Thor: Love and Thunder Alpha Chain Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 days
	Last Day	2 Days Ago	3 Days Ago	4 Days Ago	5 Days Ago
Showings Added	182	737	358	0	18
Seats Added	15,669	80,875	33,239	0	2,790
Seats Sold	41,682	26,190	16,409	10,747	8,949
7/6/2022	Theaters	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Pct. Sold
Total	440	7,805	361,999	1,250,976	28.94%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	2	43	267	777	1,450
ATP
$16.34

 

 

Thor: Love and Thunder
	Dr. Strange MoM		Spider-Man: No Way Home		Total Net	Thursday Only Net
	Unweighted	Weighted	Unweighted	Weighted
D0
T-0
T-1	$25.3	$25.7	$23.1	$26.2	$27.1	$28.6
T-2	$24.3	$24.7	$22.0	$25.1	$26.6	$28.1
T-3	$24.3	$24.8	$21.7	$24.8	$26.8	$28.3
T-4	$24.6	$25.1	$21.2	$24.3	$27.1	$28.7
T-5	$24.8	$25.3	$21.0	$24.1	$26.8	$28.4
T-6	$24.8	$25.2	$20.8	$23.8	$26.8	$28.4
T-7	$24.6	$25.1	$20.4	$23.4	$26.7	$28.3
T-8	$24.6	$25.1	$20.1	$23.0	$26.6	$28.2