The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[romeross]

WHERE THE CRAWDADS SING viewer rating of 79 on RT, a very good sign

[Rebeccas]

5 minutes ago, romeross said:

WHERE THE CRAWDADS SING viewer rating of 79 on RT, a very good sign

How is that good for an adaptation of a very popular book with a built in fanbase?

[katnisscinnaplex]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

I have a hunch Crawdads is going to play fairly white and Southern - does that line up with the breakdown of sales by markets for the EA shows?

I posted the top few states earlier.  AZ actually had the highest gross per show for states with more than one show, followed by NV, CO, SC and MN.  Maybe Harkins pulled some of my Phoenix audience away with the earlier offerings.

[charlie Jatinder]

On 7/12/2022 at 5:36 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Where the Crawdads Sing Harkins T-3 Days

Day	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Early Access	5	731	291	39.81%	$3,638	$12.50
Thursday	96	16,175	432	2.67%	$4,804	$11.12
Total	101	16,906	723	4.28%	$8,442	$11.68

 

Comps

1.497x of The Black Phone - $4.49M

0.310x of Elvis - $1.15M

 

TBP exploded on last day, so $2.5M is more likely.

Where the Crawdads Sing Harkins T-1 Day

Day	Shows	Capacity	Sold	% Sold	Gross	ATP
Early Access	5	731	493	67.44%	$6,203	$12.58
Thursday	99	16,404	941	5.74%	$10,307	$10.95
Total	104	17,135	1,434	8.37%	$16,510	$11.51

 

Comps

1.169x of The Black Phone - $3.5M

0.392x of Elvis - $1.47M

 

Added +512 yesterday, which is almost what TBP did but Early access showings mess it up. I am expecting around 3.8-4K final, which will be around $1.9-2.1M approx with both the comps I am using. Including Early Access screenings.

[vale9001]

Are you watching the RT metascore after just a bunch of EA shows in america?

Of course a lot of people voted without watching the movie.

 

You really want Crawdads to look homogenous. It's not like every movie is not a tentpole blockbuster. Still previews sales seems really solid in some states and a good level elsewhere. 15-20M are on lock. If it makes very good in his strongest target and zones also 20-25M. 

[BruiseCruise]

3 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

Are you watching the RT metascore after just a bunch of EA shows in america?

Of course a lot of people voted without watching the movie.

 

You really want Crawdads to look homogenous. It's not like every movie is not a tentpole blockbuster. Still previews sales seems really solid in some states and a good level elsewhere. 15-20M are on lock. If it makes very good in his strongest target and zones also 20-25M. 

A VERIFIED audience score of 79 after early access is atrocious

[vale9001]

18 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

I posted the top few states earlier.  AZ actually had the highest gross per show for states with more than one show, followed by NV, CO, SC and MN.  Maybe Harkins pulled some of my Phoenix audience away with the earlier offerings.

 

from cinemark tracking is very strong also in Utah and Louisiana. 

[vale9001]

2 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

A VERIFIED audience score of 79 after early access is atrocious

 

Now is 80.

No more than 25- 30K people watched the movie yesterday. Some People on the internet are clearly started an hating campaign against the movie. It's not that deep,

Edited July 14, 2022 by vale9001

[BruiseCruise]

4 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

Now is 80.

No more than 25- 30K people watched the movie yesterday. Some People on the internet are clearly started an hating campaign against the movie. It's not that deep,

 

This isn't some massive tentpole for it to have some hate campaign against it

[M37]

3 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

I posted the top few states earlier.  AZ actually had the highest gross per show for states with more than one show, followed by NV, CO, SC and MN.  Maybe Harkins pulled some of my Phoenix audience away with the earlier offerings.

Oh that's right, forgot you compiled that data too

 

11 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Top states

 

State	Theaters	Shows	Late	Capacity	Gross
CA	40	44	2,368	5,257	$37,850
TX	19	30	1,612	2,882	$22,605
NY	15	16	986	2,270	$15,943
FL	11	14	1,014	1,543	$14,550
OH	12	13	922	1,587	$11,654
VA	9	11	885	1,561	$12,514
TN	6	11	869	1,371	$12,709

 

So maybe a bit of skew towards Appalachia (TN @ $2100 per theater, VA, OH, plus SC/NC), that might be more reflective of the the regional variance - outside of the book audience - but we'll see.

[vale9001]

Just now, BruiseCruise said:

 

This isn't some massive tentpole for it to have some hate campaign against it

why not? People love to hate when something takes bad reviews.

Anyways is literally "less than 50 verified votes". Probalby they are like 10 votes lol

 

and something like rotten tomaoes audience score is ìrrelevant for this kinf of product. We need to wait the real cinemascore. 

[Tinalera]

11 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Final numbers

 

Chain	Theaters	Shows	Late	Capacity	Gross
MTC1	86	101	6,316	11,717	104,091
MTC2	59	84	4,259	7,677	53,805
Harkins	5	5	466	732	5,869
Marcus	13	13	1,011	1,748	12,791
Other	16	18	1,117	1,814	14,596
MTC3	53	63	5,354	8,902	73,608
Grand Total	232	284	18,523	32,590	$264,760

 

Top states

 

State	Theaters	Shows	Late	Capacity	Gross
CA	40	44	2,368	5,257	$37,850
TX	19	30	1,612	2,882	$22,605
NY	15	16	986	2,270	$15,943
FL	11	14	1,014	1,543	$14,550
OH	12	13	922	1,587	$11,654
VA	9	11	885	1,561	$12,514
TN	6	11	869	1,371	$12,709

 

These totals don't include Canada or any theaters without reserved seating.  I am seeing a good number of showings in Canada tonight, so maybe the total gets close to $300k for early access.  With good walkups maybe it gets to $2.5 total previews.

I wasn't able to really track Crawdads due to stuff going on and general life, happy to hear it seems to be doing good numbers in Canada

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

 

This isn't some massive tentpole for it to have some hate campaign against it

The controversies surrounding the author of the book have been going around a bit this week (the only thing that seems to have generated any kind of social media chatter surrounding the movie because of course it is) but not enough to launch a "vote it down" campaign. That Internet demo probably wouldn't give a movie like this the time of day even if the reviews had been good.

[Eric Duncan]

25 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

Are you watching the RT metascore after just a bunch of EA shows in america?

Of course a lot of people voted without watching the movie.

 

You really want Crawdads to look homogenous. It's not like every movie is not a tentpole blockbuster. Still previews sales seems really solid in some states and a good level elsewhere. 15-20M are on lock. If it makes very good in his strongest target and zones also 20-25M. 

Stop with this. The verified score is specifically designed for people who bought a ticket for the movie. If you did not buy a ticket, you are not part of the verified score. Do you really think there's this massive group of people who decided to go to an early showing of a movie they hate specifically to destroy its RT score? That's just ridiculous.

[vale9001]

8 minutes ago, Eric Odinson said:

Stop with this. The verified score is specifically designed for people who bought a ticket for the movie. If you did not buy a ticket, you are not part of the verified score. Do you really think there's this massive group of people who decided to go to an early showing of a movie they hate specifically to destroy its RT score? That's just ridiculous.

 

oh ok i didn't know. I thought it means they were verified users on the platform, just that. 

Anyways still like 5 total votes maybe. 

[vale9001]

By the way on RT There are 6 verified reviews and they are all very positive 

[WrathOfHan]

As long as Crawdads gets a B/B+ CS I'm not worried about legs when the marketplace is so empty. A 20/70 run would be great 

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

By format

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-7	Nope	PLF	21	16	143	5,307	2.69%	$15.48	$2,213.52
		Standard	22	4	57	2,875	1.98%	$10.73	$611.81
	Nope Total		43	20	200	8,182	2.44%	$14.13	$2,825.33

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-0	Crawdads	N	32	84	349	3,237	10.78%	$12.26	$4,279.46
		Y	11	56	165	1,080	15.28%	$9.07	$1,497.21
	Crawdads Total		43	140	514	4,317	11.91%	$11.24	$5,776.67
T-0	Mrs. Harris	N	3	10	27	205	13.17%	$12.99	$350.73
	Mrs. Harris Total		3	10	27	205	13.17%	$12.99	$350.73
T-0	Paws of Fury	N	20	35	58	1,890	3.07%	$11.56	$670.49
		Y	10	22	30	945	3.17%	$8.65	$259.53
	Paws of Fury Total		30	57	88	2,835	3.10%	$10.57	$930.02
T-7	Nope	N	33	13	157	6,279	2.50%	$15.07	$2,365.76
		Y	10	7	43	1,903	2.26%	$10.69	$459.57
	Nope Total		43	20	200	8,182	2.44%	$14.13	$2,825.33

 

Crawdads T-0 comp

 - Northman - 2.23x (3m)

 - Downton - 2.13x (2.13m)

 - Black Phone - .682x (1.77m)

 - Elvis - .371x (1.19m)

 

Didn't get close to matching Black Phone.   I am a little concerned with this finish, especially with Santikos not offering any early access shows.  For my Santikos prediction I'll go with 1.9m for true Thursday

 

Paws of Fury T-0 comp

 - The Bad Guys - .583x (670k)

 

Made up a lot of ground in the last day. Let's go with 650k.

 

Nope T-7 comps

 - TG2 - .095x (1.39m)

 - FB3 - .302x (1.81m)

 - JW3 - missed

Santikos Tracking

 

By matinee

 

Day	Movie	Mat	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold	ATP	Gross
T-1	Crawdads (Fri)	N	32	266	266	3,669	7.25%	$12.50	$3,324.90
		Y	29	213	213	3,264	6.53%	$9.52	$2,027.81
	Total		61	479	479	6,933	6.91%	$11.17	$5,352.71
T-1	Paws of Fury (Fri)	N	20	49	49	2,034	2.41%	$12.12	$593.75
		Y	30	84	84	3,092	2.72%	$8.91	$748.77
	Total		50	133	133	5,126	2.59%	$10.09	$1,342.52

 

Pretty ugly presales for Crawdads, but Paws is already over 3x where previews were T-1.  

 

Crawdads Fri T-1 comp

 - Morbius - .318x (3.69m)

 

Paws of Fury Fri T-1 comps

 - Minions - .033x (1.22m)

 

Don't have any good comps for Santikos yet; still building my portfolio.  Here are my sales projections for tomorrow:

 

Crawdads: ~750
Paws of Fury: ~350

[Tinalera]

57 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

As long as Crawdads gets a B/B+ CS I'm not worried about legs when the marketplace is so empty. A 20/70 run would be great 

Theres a joke to be had about Crawdads and legs somewhere in there

[Tinalera]

Nope

SW/Toronto Ontario T-8 (t-0 Friday) no comps 

 

 

NOPE	# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
Thurs	20	67	243	15167	15410	0.0157
Fri	5	20	152	6408	6560	0.0231

 

 

And yes Im surprised that even a week out more Friday inventory has not dropped yet. Which prolly means a bonkers amount next wed...yay!