The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[keysersoze123]

12 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Mario MTC1 OD - 67847/870213 1129531.55 4372 shows

 

Another good day.  

 

Mario MTC1 OD - 71854/873515 1190567.80 4398 shows.

 

9 more days of Presales left. Let us see how far it can go. 

 

[cooldude97]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Mario MTC1 OD - 71854/873515 1190567.80 4398 shows.

 

9 more days of Presales left. Let us see how far it can go. 

 

if it keeps it current pace, what should we expect for OD?

[Eric Duncan]

On 3/25/2023 at 7:52 PM, Eric Wick said:

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-11 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	159	1938	31960	6.06%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 110

 

Comp - T-11

1.151x of Sing 2 (11.2M)

3.167x of Sonic 2 (19.79M)

10.308x of Minions 2 (110.82M)

The Super Mario Bros. Movie Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-10 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	159	2077	31960	6.50%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 139

 

Comp - T-10

1.208x of Sing 2 (11.76M)

3.271x of Sonic 2 (20.44M)

9.484x of Minions 2 (101.95M)

[Eric Duncan]

On 3/21/2023 at 5:03 AM, Eric Wick said:

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-59 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	336	17734	1.89%

 

Total Seats Sold The Past Week: 24

Fast X Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-53 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	83	354	17734	2.00%

 

Total Seats Sold the Past Six Days: 18

[CJohn]

Any numbers for AIR? I feel that is gonna tank pretty hard.

[Eric Duncan]

Quorum Updates

Air T-9: 32.66% Awareness, 5.49 Interest

Love Again T-46: 21.65%, 5.11

Elemental T-81: 30.64%, 5.5

The Flash T-81: 45.25%, 5.92

Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 T-109: 35.73%, 5.98

Gran Turismo T-137: 16.22%, 4.95

Wonka T-263: 36.77%, 6.16

 

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves T-4: 47.98% Awareness, 5.32 Interest

Final Awareness: 87% chance of 10M, 56% chance of 20M, 35% chance of 30M, 22% chance of 40M

Final Interest: 42% chance of 10M, 13% chance of 20M, 6% chance of 30M

Known IP Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 67% chance of 30M, 33% chance of 40M

 

Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse T-67: 45.64% Awareness, 6.2 Interest

T-60 Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 80% chance of 40M, 60% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 60M, 40% chance of 70M

T-60 Interest: 100% chance of 40M, 90% chance of 50M, 70% chance of 70M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 70M, 50% chance of 100M

Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 50M

[stripe]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

Any numbers for AIR? I feel that is gonna tank pretty hard.

 

What's tank for you?

Reviews are quite solid and compare AIR to Jerry Maguire and Moneyball. That's encouraging for its legs.

I would say 10M OW / 40M DOM could be in store. I have read production budget is 30M.

 

[vafrow]

Are Air tickets available for sale already in the states? In Canada, regular tickets aren't available, but there's a couple of sneak preview showings on Wednesday in the greater Toronto area that are sold out already.

 

I'm surprised, because it appears to be for Cineclub members, which I am one, and I don't think I even heard about them being available, despite one of the theatres not that far away from me.

[efialtes76]

27 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Are Air tickets available for sale already in the states? In Canada, regular tickets aren't available, but there's a couple of sneak preview showings on Wednesday in the greater Toronto area that are sold out already.

 

I'm surprised, because it appears to be for Cineclub members, which I am one, and I don't think I even heard about them being available, despite one of the theatres not that far away from me.

Tickets are on sale since Friday 24th.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 3/24/2023 at 7:12 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

 

Greater Orlando Region

 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS 

 

T-6

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
44	743	8460	8.8%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00pm EST}

 

comps:

John Wick 4 - 3597 tickets sold   (0.206x) ~$1.8M THURSDAY PREVIEWS 

Scream VI - 1336 tickets sold (0.556x) ~$3.17M THURSDAY PREVIEWS 

     *So between $1.8M-$3.17M THUR based on comps 

 

Note: D&D has Amazon prime early showings on Sunday that are almost sold out and a few Wednesday showings here and there, so total preview numbers will be higher than comps have 

Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

 

Greater Orlando Region

 

THURSDAY PREVIEWS 

 

T-3

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
45	919	8658	10.6%

^{*numbers taken at approx. 12:00pm EST}

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE T-6 : 176

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-6: 1

 

COMPS: 

JOHN WICK 4 - (0.255x) $2.27M THUR

SCREAM VI - (0.688x) $3.92M THUR 

 

So $5-6M for total previews (I'm not sure how well Sunday and Wednesday previews sold) 

[ringedmortality]

If D&D opens to 6 million in previews wouldn't it get over 50?

[TheFlatLannister]

IM probably won't be over 8x considering how fan heavy previews were. Plus Sunday Amazon previews and Wednesday previews will juice numbers up a bit compared to John Wick which only had Thursday previews in Orlando 

 

@M37 and @keysersoze123 could probably provide a better analysis 

[keysersoze123]

29 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

If D&D opens to 6 million in previews wouldn't it get over 50?

6m is unlikely and whatever it does is spread of 5 days of previews. So cannot extrapolate from that. Just look at thursday previews and then see the multi. I am thinking 8-9x from whatever it does  on thursday. Let us wait and watch. 

[Pinacolada]

37 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

IM probably won't be over 8x considering how fan heavy previews were. Plus Sunday Amazon previews and Wednesday previews will juice numbers up a bit compared to John Wick which only had Thursday previews in Orlando 

 

@M37 and @keysersoze123 could probably provide a better analysis 

And just to add, I believe the 3/26 Sunday previews weren't Amazon Prime exclusive screenings. Those were 3/19 Sunday. 

 

I think the biggest pre-opening night "Sneak Previews" will be the 2 Sundays, 3/19 and 3/26. Both looked highly sold and had similar Theater counts near me (3/26 was probably a bit smaller).

 

If I had to guess somewhere around $1.5m from those? Depends how big 3/19 was... did that do $1m?

[CJohn]

8 hours ago, stripe said:

 

What's tank for you?

Reviews are quite solid and compare AIR to Jerry Maguire and Moneyball. That's encouraging for its legs.

I would say 10M OW / 40M DOM could be in store. I have read production budget is 30M.

 

They spent 5M on a Superbowl ad. I honestly think they wanted a 20M+ OW.

[el sid]

Dungeons & Dragons, counted today for Thursday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 86 (6 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 70 (8 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 51 (2 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 37 (2 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 43 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 218 (8 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 219 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 724.

Comps (both films counted on Monday of the release week for Thursday): The Lost City (2.5M from previews) had 306 sold tickets (but good jumps till Thursday)
and Uncharted (3.7M) had 868 sold tickets (with rather modest jumps).

Dungeons & Dragons, counted today for Friday:

NY (AMC Fresh Meadows 7): 157 (8 showtimes)
Miami (AMC Sunset Place 24): 69 (9 showtimes)
Grand Rapids (AMC Grand Rapids 18): 52 (3 showtimes)
Austin (AMC Lakeline 9): 21 (3 showtimes)
Tempe/Phoenix (AMC Centerpoint 11): 30 (3 showtimes)
San Francisco (AMC Metreon 16): 181 (11 showtimes)
LA (AMC Universal): 134 (6 showtimes)

Total tickets sold in 7 theaters: 644.

Comps (all films counted on Monday of the release week for Friday): Snake Eyes (13.4M OW) had 272 sold tickets,
The Lost City (30.5M) had 196
and Uncharted (44M) had 715 sold tickets.

A bit uneven from the comps so far but for sure better than what I expected. Would also go with 35M+ at the moment.

Edited March 27, 2023 by el sid

[efialtes76]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

They spent 5M on a Superbowl ad. I honestly think they wanted a 20M+ OW.

With a Wednesday opening?

I dunno.

[TheFlatLannister]

 

On 3/23/2023 at 2:13 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

THE SUPER MARIO BROS.

 

 

T-13

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
147	2752	28409	9.7%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE SUNDAY UPDATE

459

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE SUNDAY UPDATE

2

 

 

3D SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
38	394	4287	9.2%

 

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE SUNDAY UPDATE

87

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE SUNDAY UPDATE

0

 

 

Definitely cooled off a bit here after such a hot start

 

 

GREATER ORLANDO REGION 

 

THE SUPER MARIO BROS.

 

 

T-9

SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
160	3342	31338	10.7%

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE   T-13

590

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-13

13

 

 

3D SHOWINGS	TOTAL SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
40	487	4397	11.1%

 

 

SEATS SOLD SINCE   T-13

93

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-13

2

 

COMPS PREVIEWS: 
JOHN WICK 4 as of T-0 : (1.064x) $9.5M OD (3D ATP should push that estimate well past $10M OD) (Sales will continue to grow fast so expect Mario to finish maybe (2x) of John Wick T-0 (~$17-19M OD)

 

[Tinalera]

Dungeons and Dragons

Thurs Mar 23 Fri 24 (T-4)

 

Eastern Canada (Nova Scotia, New Brunswick Newfoundland)

 

NS		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	Thurs	4	12	40	2930	2970	0.0134
	Fri	4	12	193	3090	3283	0.0587
NB		# theatre	#show	Seats Sold	Seats Rem	Ttl seat	Percent
	Thurs	4	7	101	1629	1730	0.0583
	Fri	3	9	103	2370	2473	0.0416
NFLD	Thurs	1	3	34	605	639	0.0561
	Fri	1	4	105	747	857	0.1225

 

Heres a comparison for approx same time (T-2) for Antman for same area

 

Nova Sc	Thurs	4	27	825	5385	6210	0.1328
	fri	4	25	436	7651	8087	0.0539
New B	Thurs	3	12	306	2278	2584	0.1184
	fri	3	14	285	4307	4592	0.0620
St Jon NF	Thurs	1	13	398	2129	2527	0.1574
	fri	1	21	486	3989	4475	0.1086

[keysersoze123]

Dungeons and Dragons Honor Among Thieves MTC1

March 29 - 11194/37067 217798.21 173 shows

Previews - 25291/434463 418575.07 2209 shows 

 

I will update MTC2 tomorrow morning. Not a bad day overall. Sales were split across wednesday and thursday. 

On 3/26/2023 at 8:52 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Dungeons and Dragons 

MTC1 Mar 29 - 7240/37337 141273.54 174 shows

MTC1 Prev !! - 21542/388252 359829.28 1888 shows