Christmas Weekend Thread (24-26 Dec). No Way Home (84.5m) | Matrix (22.5m 5 day) | Sing 2 (39.4m 5 day)

[charlie Jatinder]

17 minutes ago, baumer said:

Just a friendly reminder once again that even though Canada is small we still account for around 10-13% of the box office in North america

% is varying for different films. For Bond you can be 15-20% as well, for Star Wars 10%+ while MCU can be under 10%.

 

Also its full run that Canada come around 10%, for opening weekend, the ratio is around 7-8% for MCU.

[baumer]

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Come on. Gotta compare similar films when talking in absolutes.

 

Only a Sith deals in absolutes 😊

[Cooper Legion]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

RTH used to do a mini theater breakdown for us by telling us what the top 10 grossing cinemas were in North America for any given weekend. Sometimes he would do the top 20 and often a couple of theaters in Toronto and one in Calgary would come in the top 20 and sometimes the top 10.

 

I was also vaguely aware that the province of Quebec, which is the second biggest one in Canada by population, contributed significantly to the box office. Unfortunately the province of Quebec is being hit the hardest with restrictions right now and it's obviously affecting movie going. So I think the Canadian box office is a very significant factor as to why the numbers are not increasing the way they should be.

Well, they’re a drag on the total and the legs but it shouldn’t really be skewing daily % trends much except on days where there is a notable ratcheting of restrictions. Like if Sat is 31 instead of 34, but Fri was 20 instead of 22, it’s pretty much a wash as far as judging the Sat bump.   
 

Canada iirc actually has slightly better weekdays, so —

much better Mon hold

bit weaker Fri bump

bit weaker Sat bump

bit better Sun hold  

 

which means, in general, deducting Canada should help the Sat increase very minority. In this particular case with Xmas and capacity limits on a large raw gross movie, the details get really messy and I’m happy to just recommend people look at the more zoomed out trending rather than obsessing about daily %s.

[Krissykins]

39 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

No, Matrix Christmas day is $4.5. 66% increase.

Ah whoops. Thread title confused me. 

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Come on. Gotta compare similar films when talking in absolutes.

Yeah, that’s why it’s better not to talk in absolutes 😛 

[Cooper Legion]

6 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Only a Sith deals in absolutes 😊

From my point of view, the subtraction is evil.

[Agafin]

12 minutes ago, XO21 said:

I don't get why you keep insisting all those movies didn't have covid to deal with...

How much more do you think NWH would have done without Covid? I would say $50m tops, though it's impossible to prove.

[baumer]

1 minute ago, Agafin said:

How much more do you think NWH would have done without Covid? I would say $50m tops, though it's impossible to prove.

 

Nothing more OW. 

Like you said it's impossible to actually know but I personally believe that whatever the total is you could probably add on at least another 7-10% that was lost due to the muted Canadian box office. But again it's literally impossible to know.

[charlie Jatinder]

Oh we have a Canada box office thread @baumer

 

 

 

[baumer]

4 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Oh we have a Canada box office thread @baumer

 

 

 

 

You're awesome! No one's ever done this before. Thanks for doing this!

[wildphantom]

Looking at Spidey’s number, the answer as to why it didn’t get closer to late 30’s is clear as day….

 

Sony lent Warner Bros $4.5 million to resurrect Matrix for Christmas. 

[Agafin]

20 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

You're awesome! No one's ever done this before. Thanks for doing this!

The province of Quebec also has a BOM-like tracking site:

https://www.cinoche.com/films/box-office/2021-12-10

Dune was a MASSIVE success there.

[Tokugennumataka]

3 hours ago, Product Driven Legion said:

405.5M to date

31.5
33

26

24

23

23

19

29

19 (67) 

8

11

652M through Jan 4th

120-150M after that

These are a bit out there imho but the optimist in me is still wants to believe in $750M.

[Gavin Feng]

I still think a lifetime number around AIW. People's expectations here are so wavering. Many doubted $550M-plus lifetime before pre-sale. Then many expected $700M-plus after $260M opening. And now disappointments. The conclusions for its performance are very biased. 

[eddyxx]

 

We missed out on a All Marvel top 5 by a measley 9 million. Fucking mediocre.

[Cooper Legion]

21 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

I still think a lifetime number around AIW. People's expectations here are so wavering. Many doubted $550M-plus lifetime before pre-sale. Then many expected $700M-plus after $260M opening. And now disappointments. The conclusions for its performance are very biased. 

Updating with new information is not “wavering” or “biased.” Not updating with new information is just silly.

[Cooper Legion]

7 minutes ago, eddyxx said:

 

We missed out on a All Marvel top 5 by a measley 9 million. Fucking mediocre.

Should have had Watts direct Eternals

[john2000]

8 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Updating with new information is not “wavering” or “biased.” Not updating with new information is just silly.

true at this point the situation is still incredible fluid, other than 500 and 600 being locked we dont have any idea about high it will go.

[john2000]

by the way any update on the numbers @EmpireCity @charlie Jatinder or the same like before ?

[CoolioD1]

Btw the “meltdown” portion of the thread is just people talking about how there’s going to be meltdowns so far. For anyone who wants to read the overnight posts and is gonna be disappointed like me.