Christmas Weekend Thread (24-26 Dec). No Way Home (84.5m) | Matrix (22.5m 5 day) | Sing 2 (39.4m 5 day)

[DAR]

This forum is spoiled

[titanic2187]

 People saying Matrix is a reboot that nobody asked for that will flop even during pre-pandemic time while facing mega-blockbuster like NWH, totally forgetting the fact that Jumanji 2017, another film that nobody asked for reboot, grossed 400m under TLJ shadow.

 

 

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

If NWH doesn’t reach 700 the legs will be extremely disappointing, verging on pathetic.

true , right now i am thinking the last jedi legs, hopefully it has better legs than that it has the potential and opportunity

[Gavin Feng]

8 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

What use is the comparison to other movies this year supposed to have when there weren’t any other big movies this year?

 

There was. Just all of them are shit movies.

[AJG]

2 hours ago, wildphantom said:

Don’t delay Scream!

at this rate Wales and Scotland might be out of the question and I’ll have to travel to England to unmask the killer!! Road trip @Krissykins?? 

 

England >>>>>>> those other countries

 

We have an M&M's Store.

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Jumanji 2017, another film that nobody asked for reboot, grossed 400m under TLJ shadow.

1. Trailers were fun.

2. Movie was fun.

 

fun is fun. 

[john2000]

Just now, Gavin Feng said:

 

There was. Just all of them are shit movies.

that still not a reason to compare them

[Cooper Legion]

10 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

 People saying Matrix is a reboot that nobody asked for that will flop even during pre-pandemic time while facing mega-blockbuster like NWH, totally forgetting the fact that Jumanji 2017, another film that nobody asked for reboot, grossed 400m under TLJ shadow.

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

1. Trailers were fun.

2. Movie was fun.

 

fun is fun. 

I think that’s the point. If Matrix was well-received we wouldn’t have this “nobody asked for” talking point

[Webjam02]

1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

In terms of absolute hold, nearly 70% second weekend drop is definitely not good. But in terms of volume, $80M is a amazing performance. Remember, only 3 movies this year made that much on their opening weekend.

I’m surprised we aren’t celebrating this. Covid is getting wild in the US. We are EXTREMELY lucky we got one full crazy weekend.

[Webjam02]

8 minutes ago, john2000 said:

true , right now i am thinking the last jedi legs, hopefully it has better legs than that it has the potential and opportunity

Disagree with both. Why would this movie perform normally with the pandemic ratcheting back up right after its OW?

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, Webjam02 said:

Disagree with both. Why would this movie perform normally with the pandemic ratcheting back up right after its OW?

bc as of now every other movie this year had normal legs,if its that frontloaded it wont be bc of covid

[Gavin Feng]

3 minutes ago, john2000 said:

that still not a reason to compare them

 

I did not mean to compare them. I'm saying the disappointment argument is ridiculous. I agree any opinion saying the legs is weak or bad. But those who think $650M-plus lifetime is disappointed? If legs is everything, then I suggest folks here go to track those movies which make $100 lifetime after $1 opening. A better run that make $600M movie feel desperate.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

 

 

[SchumacherFTW]

38 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

England >>>>>>> those other countries

 

We have an M&M's Store.

You say that like it's worth going to visit the M&M store 

[titanic2187]

6 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

 

 

In line Phantom Thread after expansion, a very good sign for award season run.  

[KJsooner]

Not surprised at the drop for Spider-Man, my whole family came down with Omicron. First time we haven’t seen a movie on Christmas Day since 2015. 
 

We planned to see Spidey a 2nd time yesterday.

[Eric the Marxist]

I know Omicron's a big factor to all this, but I also think the big issue for the NWH titles, once again, is that we still don't have a vast chunk of the non 18-34 demos heading out to theaters. Sing 2 is reliant on families, who have likely been way more conditioned with PVOD than other demographics, and stuff like West Side is reliant on 45+ who just aren't as eager. Even NWH was still about 62% 18-34 for its OW, an insane skew. 29% of FFH was 18-24 by comparison. Even if you want to factor in 25-34 there, that's still likely an absurdly smaller percentage.

 

And seeing as how families and older auds are the ones who supply good legs...yeah, that's going to impact NWH as well. And as I always say, who knows if they'll ever come back? I already talked about this a couple days ago, but I think (and I know I might be wrong, don't even bother "Hahaing" me or giving me a lecture) that grosses will be depressed to account for these missing demos. 350 is the new 500 and whatnot.

[Deathlife]

Just to piggy back off what Baumer said, there's full on covid panic in Canada right now. All the news is about how we're experiencing an unprecedented surge in cases which isn't exactly encouraging news to film goers.

 

I'm in Saskatoon and the only way to get into a theatre (for all adults) is to show evidence of FULL vaccination. Granted the Canadian box office doesn't add much to the totals, it's still something.

 

Also, these numbers need to taken into account with the pandemic being a factor. We've seen covid surges in different areas of the world and the news of the omicron variant being the dominant strain of covid will likely keep a lot of people (myself included) in-doors for the holidays. All in all, it's not surprising the numbers are turning out to be depressed. 

 

That being said, any statstical modelling or analysis being done at the moment needs to take the pandemic into account as the "unknown factor". On a purely academic perspective, any model that doesn't take it into account is simply inaccurate.

[keysersoze123]

I am sorry to say from a bigger perspective, canada does not matter that much. At best it would be another 5m or so. But impact to US BO is huge. As @Eric Smith mentioned its lack of older and very young kids at theaters that is limiting the potential of NWH. In my viewing on a holiday there were few of them but not enough like pre pandemic screening of even SW9. I definitely saw an impact and I live in a county with 81.1% across all ages fully vaccinated and 51% with booster dose. With Omicron in early ramp, things wont get better in next few weeks. 

[Shanks]

You all like taking (% ) of things no?

• Highest yearly Domestic share of by any movie was held by End Game, it shared 7.5% of total Box office of year 2019.
• TFA, Avatar, Titanic, Black Panther all have shares that are distributed in two years, as December releases come at 5% on higher end of Share.

No Way Home even though it's Gross will be shared by two years of 2021 and 2022, This year will have 12% Share of total box office of Year 2021. (Assuming it grosses 500m by end of 31st)

 

• Talking about Any Month's highest Share,  Avengers (2012) held record with 51% share of May's Month of 2012.
• Talking about December releases. The Force Awakens used to be first, it held 50% share of total gross of December of 2015. 
• End-Game made 400m in it's month of release (8 days) but that Month even without Endgame would have made 600m. Now, If you add 1st week of May to gross of April's Month, so that Endgame can have 14 days of release window taking it's gross to 644 Million still remains 54% of share.

No Way Home will be taking 67-70% share of December's total Gross.