Christmas Weekend Thread (24-26 Dec). No Way Home (84.5m) | Matrix (22.5m 5 day) | Sing 2 (39.4m 5 day)

[BK007]

18 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

I think the biggest issue is 2nd weekend curse. Of the top 10 of the year, 5 of them have 2nd weekend drop over 65%. This is normally the drop for some bad horror film in pre-pandemic time but now almost every major openers are BvS. 

 

I have never experienced such a boring box office trend where you can throw 2.3x to 2.7x multipliers leg and probably >90% of the films will fall within that 4 decimal points. We need more casual moviegoers to fill in the seat. 

 

It's not a curse as much as it is the new normal.

 

Why are people still acting as though covid had/has no impact? There are people, whether you agree with them or not, who have not and maybe even will not return.

 

I'm also quite surprised Dune will be WB's biggest hit this year. How did they manage to convince people to watch that in the cinemas and not everything else? In normal times you'd think it'd be outperformed by most everything else.

[john2000]

A normal monday drop for spidey would be between 25-30% we shall see.

Edited December 27, 2021 by john2000

[Coldbird]

34 minutes ago, BK007 said:

Also, why do people keep saying this movie will drive subscribers for any movie opening early digitally? I can guarantee that most movies will not do so. You really think Encanto will push people over? So since it's gonna be spending the rest of its life on Disney+, they really should not have rushed it. The most high profile animated film failing to make $100m is depressing for the medium's future.

Its not always driving new subscribers but also keeping the ones you have. People subscribed for Raja or Luca, but they are not keep their subscription over years for one-two movies.

[thedast]

31 minutes ago, BK007 said:

I'm also quite surprised Dune will be WB's biggest hit this year. How did they manage to convince people to watch that in the cinemas and not everything else? In normal times you'd think it'd be outperformed by most everything else.

Cast really helped especially Timothee and Zendaya and Oscar who together appeal to a broad, younger audience.

 

Then people wouldn't shut up about it being this thing you REALLY needed to experience in a theatre because of Denis, to give a middle finger to WB, to see more of Zendaya in part 2, to experience Zimmer. Feel like that was one of the few times that plea worked because they built an admittedly effective narrative around it where it was seen as some sort of indie, auteur underdog and an already massive hit at the same time, so an air of FOMO with a dash of criticism that its fan aggressively dismissed as impatient (it picks up in part 2!) or dumb (you only understand jokes from Marvel!). 

[TwoMisfits]

7 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

That is why 30-45  theater exclusive window is a joke. They may not impacting a movie only when on the week when it is available on streaming but the impact may very well in place on a movie 1st or 2nd week. And studio still rushing going somewhere else where a film will stick there forever, thereby cheapen their product  

Had my 5 siblings on a Christmas call and pitched them watching Spidey - none of them had.  Two of them said "this will be on Disney Plus in a month anyway" and then I had to tell them it isn't Disney and this one wouldn't have free streaming for months...

 

Not sure I convinced any of them to go, but there's your 35+ adults with 12 and unders families who pre-Covid did see movies...if streaming is too fast, they stay home...

[TwoMisfits]

33 minutes ago, Coldbird said:

Its not always driving new subscribers but also keeping the ones you have. People subscribed for Raja or Luca, but they are not keep their subscription over years for one-two movies.

 

Bingo - at the prices D+ charges, they need a lot more material to keep adults happy for a continuous subscription - I dropped for this year (since I'd seen everything and Marvel movies were taking a 9 month break), and I'll see what they add in a year before I look to add back next Thanksgiving/Christmas...

[M37]

1 hour ago, BK007 said:

 

I'm also quite surprised Dune will be WB's biggest hit this year. How did they manage to convince people to watch that in the cinemas and not everything else? In normal times you'd think it'd be outperformed by most everything else.

It got the “have to see it on big screen” WOM effect (see Avatar, Gravity), which was especially given home viewing accessibility 

[filmlover]

I get a feeling that if Keanu wasn't having a moment in pop culture (the movie was given the green light right after John Wick 3/Toy Story 4 came out) and everyone wasn't hungry for nostalgia money these days, the studio would've been perfectly fine with the Matrix IP remaining in eternal slumber. The numbers are low enough to suggest it would've been an underperformer no matter the circumstances.

[charlie Jatinder]

33.5

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

33.5

 

A nice increase. Monday drops $12-14M.

[JonahVex]

So $84.7 mil weekend, looking like Avatar is still a legit possibilty

[Tokugennumataka]

Good number. Hopefully it stabilises from this week. Great signs if Monday drop is less than 35%.

[Tokugennumataka]

4 minutes ago, JonahVex said:

So $84.7 mil weekend, looking like Avatar is still a legit possibilty

Ah yes, with 33M, even 700M was dead but with 33.5M Avatar is going down. 

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, JonahVex said:

So $84.7 mil weekend, looking like Avatar is still a legit possibilty

 

Naaaahhh....

 

$730M absolute max at this point.

[Legion Again]

Avatar was still in reach with 32, little closer with 33.5 of course. I expect Mon to kill it though.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 hours ago, BK007 said:

 

It's not a curse as much as it is the new normal.

 

Why are people still acting as though covid had/has no impact? There are people, whether you agree with them or not, who have not and maybe even will not return.

 

I'm also quite surprised Dune will be WB's biggest hit this year. How did they manage to convince people to watch that in the cinemas and not everything else? In normal times you'd think it'd be outperformed by most everything else.

Dune has the most committed fanbase. Also had a good release date.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

Had my 5 siblings on a Christmas call and pitched them watching Spidey - none of them had.  Two of them said "this will be on Disney Plus in a month anyway" and then I had to tell them it isn't Disney and this one wouldn't have free streaming for months...

 

Not sure I convinced any of them to go, but there's your 35+ adults with 12 and unders families who pre-Covid did see movies...if streaming is too fast, they stay home...

Some of my friends are the same way, used to go see stuff in theaters but now are asking me "when is Spider-Man going to be on Disney+" This is why I don't like these super short windows. Now the theater experience has less value so we will see depressed BO.

 

[Tokugennumataka]

6 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:

Avatar was still in reach with 32, little closer with 33.5 of course. I expect Mon to kill it though.

What Mon numbers would kill the hope, would you say? Under $21M? 

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

What Mon numbers would kill the hope, would you say? Under $21M? 

Anything under 23 probably gets the job done.

[titanic2187]

10 minutes ago, Menor said:

Some of my friends are the same way, used to go see stuff in theaters but now are asking me "when is Spider-Man going to be on Disney+" This is why I don't like these super short windows. Now the theater experience has less value so we will see depressed BO.

 

Everytime if they asked me this question I will reply, "Are you some freaking incel or nerd? Go out there and mingle around people!"

 

 Size matters, and they always do, therefore big screen is here to serve that scientific law.