Weekday Numbers (12/27-30) | Asgard 2 says 20.5 Thursday for NWH | Derby is Back!

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, druv10 said:

As Charlie stated OW wasn't 260M so maybe Sony is taking 200K a day to balance out OW. 

Naa that was minor thing. Settled on Monday itself.

 

These are just estimates, actuals can be easily over. Wednesday is sureshot $20.5M.

[JonahVex]

 

[PDC1987]

21 minutes ago, druv10 said:

As Charlie stated OW wasn't 260M so maybe Sony is taking 200K a day to balance out OW. 

Imagine thinking the OW was fudged that much.

[druv10]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Naa that was minor thing. Settled on Monday itself.

 

These are just estimates, actuals can be easily over. Wednesday is sureshot $20.5M.

Then actuals should bump up by couple of million since Sony has been underreporting every day.

[Krissykins]

 

[JonahVex]

What are we thinking for tonight? 25m?

[XXR vs XXR]

14 minutes ago, JonahVex said:

What are we thinking for tonight? 25m?

Well, I’m not thinking it but I am curious after doing my presales count. Given that tomorrow is a day off for a large amount of people domestically, I’m curious to see what kind of increase we get today. 
 

As long as it’s over $20M, I’ll be happy but $22M+ would be nice to see.

[JonahVex]

2 minutes ago, RiddlerXXR said:

Well, I’m not thinking it but I am curious after doing my presales count. Given that tomorrow is a day off for a large amount of people domestically, I’m curious to see what kind of increase we get today. 
 

As long as it’s over $20M, I’ll be happy but $22M+ would be nice to see.

What kind of drop off are you expecting on NYE? 17-18m?

[wildphantom]

Sing 2 ticking along very nicely. 

[XXR vs XXR]

26 minutes ago, JonahVex said:

What kind of drop off are you expecting on NYE? 17-18m?

Let’s see what today does but my estimate would be 20-30% lower than today. 

[Legion Again]

Think we’re gonna crack the DOM top 10 with wknd actuals here. That will give us the first time in history that a 4000+ wide A+ whose run has ended is not in the top 10.

[charlie Jatinder]

I have NWH doing $33M in 4th weekend for total of $661M.

 

From there,

TFA did 2.95x, gives $758m

Rogue One did 2.5x, gives $743M

TLJ did 2.02x, gives $727M.

 

Choose your own adventure

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I have NWH doing $33M in 4th weekend for total of $661M.

 

From there,

TFA did 2.95x, gives $758m

Rogue One did 2.5x, gives $743M

TLJ did 2.02x, gives $727M.

 

Choose your own adventure

 

I'll take 2.25x and whatever that gives us. 

[JonahVex]

TFA multipler gets it oh so close to Avatar,  if it gets that close we might see some people go and watch against just to help it get over that hump like they did with Endgame back in 2019

[LPLC]

14 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I have NWH doing $33M in 4th weekend for total of $661M.

 

From there,

TFA did 2.95x, gives $758m

Rogue One did 2.5x, gives $743M

TLJ did 2.02x, gives $727M.

 

Choose your own adventure

$33M in 4th weekend ? That would be huge, I was more thinking of something like $20M-$25M if $45M in 3rd weekend.

[KP1025]

7 minutes ago, JonahVex said:

TFA multipler gets it oh so close to Avatar,  if it gets that close we might see some people go and watch against just to help it get over that hump like they did with Endgame back in 2019

 

I would say that was a different case though. Endgame was within striking distance of taking the #1 WW crown from Avatar, which seemed an insurmountable goal for a decade. They also released an extended theatrical cut to further entice viewers to return. I don't think getting to #3 DOM is as big a deal for them to try to push NWH over.

[wildphantom]

Charlie’s forecast for 4th weekend make sense. Likely to see better weekend holds as the week days get back to normal. 

[Tokugennumataka]

31 - 14M

1 Jan - 19M

2 - 15M

3 - 6M

4 - 6.5M

5 - 4.9M

6 - 4.4M

7 - 8.4M

8 - 13.5M

9 - 8.6M

30.5M (-37%). 656M by Sunday. Titanic to sink on the following Tuesday. 

[narniadis]

1 hour ago, LPLC said:

$33M in 4th weekend ? That would be huge, I was more thinking of something like $20M-$25M if $45M in 3rd weekend.

45m would be a disaster all things considered. Should comfortably cross 50m+ and will probably be close to 40m with just Friday and Saturday (and yes, that accounts for it dropping on Friday.) 

[narniadis]

7 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

31 - 14M

1 Jan - 19M

2 - 15M

3 - 6M

4 - 6.5M

5 - 4.9M

6 - 4.4M

7 - 8.4M

8 - 13.5M

9 - 8.6M

30.5M (-37%). 656M by Sunday. Titanic to sink on the following Tuesday. 

Tuesday the 4th will drop from the 3rd, as the rest of schools make it back in. Usually its the 2nd week before (precovid) the Tuesday increases were normal again. 

 

And obviously 2010/11 is too far back to be a complete follow but it gives a good picture of how this coming week should behave in theory, particularly the daily drops most of the week and rare increases. 

Edited December 31, 2021 by narniadis