Best Picture Predictions: 2022

[filmlover]

Yeah, even with at least half of this year's Best Picture nominees looking to be sub-$10M grossers at the box office, I don't think the Academy really cares about trying to boost the ratings as much as possible. They just want avoid producing a show that isn't a PR nightmare like the last few have been.

[stripe]

Today we have NYFCC announcing winners! Awards season officially begins. Other noticeable precursors in the near future:

12/5 - Atlanta Film Critics Circle

12/6 - Satellite Awards Nominations

12/8 - NBR

12/9 - Las Vegas Critics Noms

12/10 - Washington Critics Noms

12/11 - LAFCA

12/11 - NY Film Critics Online

12/11 - Boston

12/12 - Golden Globes Noms

12/12 - Washington Critics Winners

12/12 - Las Vegas Critics Winners

12/14 - Chicago

12/21 - Oscars shortlists

 

 

 

Edited December 2, 2022 by stripe

[stripe]

NYFCC 2022 winners

Best Picture: Aftersun (last year: Drive my car)
Best Director: (last year: Jane Campion)

Best Actor: (last year: Benedict Cumberbatch)

Best Actress: (last year: Lady Gaga)

Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once (last year: Kodi Smit-McPhee)
Best Supporting Actress: Keke Palmer, Nope (last year: Kathryn Hunter)

Best Screenplay: (last year: Licorice Pizza)
Best Cinematography: (last year: West Side Story)

Best Animated Film: Marcel the Shell with shoes on (last year: Mitchels vs the Machines)

Edited December 2, 2022 by stripe

[filmlover]

51 minutes ago, stripe said:

NYFCC 2022 winners

Best Picture: Aftersun (last year: Drive my car)
Best Director: (last year: Jane Campion)

Best Actor: (last year: Benedict Cumberbatch)

Best Actress: (last year: Lady Gaga)

Best Supporting Actor: (last year: Kodi Smit-McPhee)
Best Supporting Actress: (last year: Kathryn Hunter)

Best Screenplay: (last year: Licorice Pizza)
Best Cinematography: (last year: West Side Story)

Best Animated Film: Marcel the Shell with shoes on (last year: Mitchels vs the Machines)

Quan wins Supporting Actor. He’s probably going to be the closest to an acting sweep this year given his lack of competition tbh.

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

2022 NYFCC Winners:

 

 

BEST FILM
Tar

BEST DIRECTOR
S.S. Rajamouli, RRR

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, Tar

BEST ACTOR
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin and After Yang

BEST SCREENPLAY
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
EO (Poland)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Claudio Miranda, Top Gun: Maverick

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Keke Palmer, Nope

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST NON-FICTION FILM
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On

SPECIAL AWARDS
–Jake Perlin, curator, distributor and publisher in recognition of his indispensable contributions to film culture.

–dGenerate Films for their invaluable work bringing independent films to China.

–Jafar Panahi, for “dogged bravery as an artist, and for the humanity and beauty of a body of work created under the most oppressive circumstances.

BEST FIRST FILM
Aftersun

[CoolioD1]

keke palmer in supporting is crazy category fraud lol

Edited December 2, 2022 by CoolioD1

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

39 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

keke palmer in supporting is crazy category fraud lol

I mean, if Carey Mulligan is "supporting" in She Said, anybody else might as well try playing the same game. As long as the Academy doesn't regulate it (other organizations have overruled placements at times), the category fraud will just get worse and worse.

[Jake Gittes]

The critics' groups are free to ignore the campaigning and decide for themselves which category an actor belongs in, though, no? 

[Maggie]

The Fabelmans 0 noms? What gives?

[interiorgatordecorator]

24 minutes ago, Maggie said:

The Fabelmans 0 noms? What gives?

 

too dumb for the super smart new york critics

 

thats only partly sarcastic

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

7 hours ago, Jake Gittes said:

The critics' groups are free to ignore the campaigning and decide for themselves which category an actor belongs in, though, no? 

Critics groups often position themselves as doing their own thing independent of the Academy, but they can influence the Oscar race, lifting up something/someone out of left field and into the conversation with a win.

 

If Keke had won Lead Actress at NYFCC the pundits would have gone WTF and written it off mostly. But as a Supporting win here, other voters down the line can maybe talk themselves into it: Kaluuya is more of a lead than her, it's horror, her character is often comic relief, she's never been nominated before...  Toni Collette and Lupita Nyong'o got snubbed Oscar morning despite even bigger pushes, and critics still complain about it. So, I can them going along with Palmer in Supporting now, figuring some recognition for a horror performance is better than nothing. 

 

 

Edited December 3, 2022 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[filmlover]

Love Keke but the category fraud lmao. This makes even less sense than, say, Viola Davis going Supporting for Fences (at least she had the excuse of disappearing for a decent amount of time in that movie). 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Fabelmans losing here despite the group loving Spielberg usually is indicative of why it won't win BP-- frontrunner fatigue, lack of rooting factor, passion issues.

 

Expecting Los Angeles to go like:

Picture: Everything Everywhere All At Once

runner-up: RRR

 

Director: Todd Field, TAR

runner-up: Park, Decision To Leave

 

Lead Performance: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Onc

runner-up: Cate Blanchett, TAR

 

Supporting Performance: Dolly DeLeon, Triangle of Sadness

runner-up: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once

 

Screenplay: Everything Everywhere All At Once

runner-up: Banshees of Inisherin

[Cmasterclay]

There was a tweet about it posted earlier so I'm bandwagoning but I have had two friends that barely have watched anything since the Matrix (1999 edition) tell me how much they and their wives loved Elvis this week. It's in my top five easily despite me usually fucking despising these musical biopics. It did huge numbers on HBO Max. I really think that is being underestimated - it has a better chance of winning it all then missing the nomination at this point.

[CoolioD1]

do people think elvis is missing the nomination? why is that? i haven't really kept up with the conversations much this year. it's the one Oscar baity movie that's been seen by anybody. i still think austin butler is winning too.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I've been on the Austin Butler train 

 

I'm also worried about The Whale. Fraser is good. Chau should coattail. But the reviews have gotten crummier since the festivals, the backlash is brewing. Backlash is essentially meaningless I've argued but a mediocre film that's only getting by due to goodwill narrative of actor can only go so far when it doesn't have broad support. It seems to be a crowdpleaser and will pop a major PTA next weekend, but it remains to be seen how it crosses over. The marketing has also dropped the ball. With a24 looking to win BP with Everything, I'm not certain they can get Whale into BP

 

So no idea for the 10th slot now... 

[filmlover]

56 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I've been on the Austin Butler train 

 

I'm also worried about The Whale. Fraser is good. Chau should coattail. But the reviews have gotten crummier since the festivals, the backlash is brewing. Backlash is essentially meaningless I've argued but a mediocre film that's only getting by due to goodwill narrative of actor can only go so far when it doesn't have broad support. It seems to be a crowdpleaser and will pop a major PTA next weekend, but it remains to be seen how it crosses over. The marketing has also dropped the ball. With a24 looking to win BP with Everything, I'm not certain they can get Whale into BP

 

So no idea for the 10th slot now... 

I wouldn’t expect much from The Whale at the box office. Buzz is quiet, reviews aren’t that strong to begin with, and it also doesn’t sound like something that will catch on with mainstream audiences either. 
 

I’ve kind of washed my hands of this year and waiting to see how the precursors go at this point tbh. This fourth quarter has been rough between movies that underwhelmed and the ones that do have passion and solid reviews being handicapped by the fact that all of them are posting stunningly low box office numbers. I agree Elvis should be easily in now since it’s one of the very few contenders this year that people actually saw and talked about. 

[DAJK]

Elvis is getting nominated. Best Actor is between Butler and Fraser. But BP is looking like a race between Top Gun and EEAAO if you ask me. Fabelmans has lost steam. Something like Banshees was never going to win. Would love to see a Woman King nomination, but I have my doubts that it's going to happen. 

[Eric the Minion]

I'm still under the "TGM for Best Picture" camp. I know that it's very boring, but like Coolio said, this is catnip for the boomer voters and the awards contenders this year have failed to catch on at all (probably never will again for that matter). Top Gun's already an industry darling and is arguably the most non-objectionable movie of the bunch. No backlash, no obvious frontrunner status, etc. Plus there's even a "this movie saved theaters forever" narrative. Been a while since we've had a Titanic/ROTK style winner anyways. The time has come.

[filmlover]

ACTORS ON ACTORS SEASON 17
FULL LINEUPhttps://t.co/0NNC8NRqte pic.twitter.com/aIhJXoyto9

— Variety (@Variety) December 5, 2022

 

some of these selections this year are really random. Joe Alwyn for his no1curr movies? Nobody from Women Talking? I like Powell but he was clearly chosen because they couldn’t get Cruise to appear and needed someone from Top Gun to show up even if they had no chance of being nominated lol.