Best Picture Predictions: 2022

[Maggie]

For the people saying the Academy must nominated TG2 or other popular movie to increase ratings...Joker was a smash hit and ratings were crap that year too. I doubt nominating blockbusters will help with the ratings

Edited October 11, 2022 by Maggie

[Maggie]

TODAY'S PREDICTIONS

 

1. The Fabelmans

2. Women Talking

3. Everything Everywhere All At Once

4. Babylon

5.. The Banshees of Inisherin

6.The Whale

7. TÁR

8. Triangle of Sadness

9. She Said

10. Avatar 2/Elvis

Edited October 15, 2022 by Maggie

[stripe]

On 10/11/2022 at 8:32 PM, Maggie said:

For the people saying the Academy must nominated TG2 or other popular movie to increase ratings...Joker was a smash hit and ratings were crap that year too. I doubt nominating blockbusters will help with the ratings

 

They won't nominate TG2 to try to increase ratings. It wasn't either their intention with Joker. They will nominate TG2 because it's a praised blockbuster, a cultural phenomenom, and it's also perceived as the savior of Theatrical cinema.

IMHO, after two pandemic years, there's a feeling in the industry that it is time to reivindicate the magic of a Theatrical release. I believe it will be a key factor this year, and Fabelmans (magic of cinema theme), TG2, EEAAO (surprise original hit), Babylon (golden age of Hollywood spectacle) or Elvis (huge respected hit) will undoubtely benefit from this.

Even the "smaller" or independent films with the best chances to get a BP nom are also opting for a traditional Theatrical release: Tàr, Women talking, Banshees...

And watch out if Avatar or Black Panther deliver great reviews, specially the former. If Avatar 2 delivers, the sky is the limit.

[stripe]

My predictions, updated. Bolded the nominees

 

Solid chances (praised and/or succesful films)

• Fabelmans
• Elvis
• EEAAO
• Maverick
• Banshees of Inisherin
• Women Talking

Possible (already seen movies with noticeable buzz)

• Bones and All
• Tàr
• The Whale
• Triangle of sadness
• White Noise
• Knives Out 2
• The Woman King
• She said
• Till

Dificult (already seen, mild or solid but not passionate reactions)

• Armageddon Time
• The son
• Empire of Light
• Thirteen Lives
• Nope

Unseen but potential game changers

• Babylon
• Avatar: The way of water
• I wanna dance with somebody
• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Alt. Till

 

Besides top 6, the race feels wide opened, with 10-12 movies that can fight for a place but with some weaknesses. Tempted to root for Till instead of Triangle os Sadness, because the former is more Oscar friendly territory.

Still has no clue which foreign movie will be pushed to fight for a spot.

 

 

[Ezen Baklattan]

Alright, guess I'm gonna be the first person on here to put it in my top 10.

 

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Fabelmans

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

She Said

Tar

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Women Talking

 

Pinocchio may be a crapshoot, but...I think the fact that Netflix doesn't really have a better choice for a contender AND the strong reviews so far could maybe make it happen? All Quiet, maybe, but I don't know if it goes beyond tech categories at this point.

[stripe]

20 hours ago, Ezen Baklattan said:

Alright, guess I'm gonna be the first person on here to put it in my top 10.

 

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All At Once

The Fabelmans

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

She Said

Tar

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Women Talking

 

Pinocchio may be a crapshoot, but...I think the fact that Netflix doesn't really have a better choice for a contender AND the strong reviews so far could maybe make it happen? All Quiet, maybe, but I don't know if it goes beyond tech categories at this point.

 

Pinochio is a great wildcard prediction!

[Maggie]

What if Banshees of Inisherin wins this?

[SLAM!]

6 hours ago, Maggie said:

What if Banshees of Inisherin wins this?

It wouldn’t be too much of a surprise. Banshees already feels like an iconic film to me. It’s going to be a film of the moment, at least more than Fabelmans.

[SLAM!]

Gotham Awards 2022 Nominations

*Tár nabs the “most nominations” headlines*

 

Best feature
“Aftersun”
“The Cathedral”
“Dos Estaciones”
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“Tár”
 

Best international feature
“Athena”
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Corsage”
“Decision to Leave”
“Happening”
“Saint Omer”

 

Best documentary feature
“All That Breathes”
“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”
“I Didn’t See You There”
“The Territory”
“What We Leave Behind”

 

Oustanding lead performance
Cate Blanchett (“Tár”)
Danielle Deadwyler (“Till”)
Dale Dickey (“A Love Song”)
Colin Farrell (“After Yang”)
Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”)
Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”)
Thandiwe Newton (“God’s Country”)
Aubrey Plaza “(Emily the Criminal)” 
Taylor Russell (“Bones and All”)
Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All At Once”)
 

Outstanding supporting performance
Mark Rylance (“Bones and All”)
Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”)
Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Raúl Castillo (“The Inspection”)
Gabrielle Union (“The Inspection”)
Nina Hoss (“Tár”)
Noémie Merlant (“Tár”)
Hong Chau (“The Whale”)

Jessie Buckley ("Women Talking")

Ben Whishaw ("Women Talking")

 

Breakthrough director
Charlotte Wells (“Aftersun”)
Owen Kline (“Funny Pages”)
Elegance Bratton (“The Inspection”)
Antoneta Alamat Kusijanovic (“Murina”)
Beth De Araújo (“Soft & Quiet”)
Jane Schoenbrun (“We’re All Going to the World’s Fair”)

 

Best screenplay
Kogonada (“After Yang”)
James Gray (“Armageddon Time”)
Lena Dunham (“Catherine Called Birdy”)
Todd Field (“Tár”)
Sarah Polley (“Women Talking”)

 

Breakthrough performer
Frankie Corio (“Aftersun”)
Kali Reis (“Catch the Fair One”)
Gracija Flipovic (“Murina”)
Anna Diop (“Nanny”)
Anna Cobb (“We’re All Going to the World’s Fair”)

Edited October 27, 2022 by SLAM!

[stripe]

11 hours ago, SLAM! said:

Gotham Awards 2022 Nominations

*Tár nabs the “most nominations” headlines*

 

Best feature
“Aftersun”
“The Cathedral”
“Dos Estaciones”
“Everything Everywhere All at Once”
“Tár”
 

Best international feature
“Athena”
“The Banshees of Inisherin”
“Corsage”
“Decision to Leave”
“Happening”
“Saint Omer”

 

Best documentary feature
“All That Breathes”
“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”
“I Didn’t See You There”
“The Territory”
“What We Leave Behind”

 

Oustanding lead performance
Cate Blanchett (“Tár”)
Danielle Deadwyler (“Till”)
Dale Dickey (“A Love Song”)
Colin Farrell (“After Yang”)
Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”)
Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”)
Thandiwe Newton (“God’s Country”)
Aubrey Plaza “(Emily the Criminal)” 
Taylor Russell (“Bones and All”)
Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All At Once”)
 

Outstanding supporting performance
Mark Rylance (“Bones and All”)
Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”)
Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Raúl Castillo (“The Inspection”)
Gabrielle Union (“The Inspection”)
Nina Hoss (“Tár”)
Noémie Merlant (“Tár”)
Hong Chau (“The Whale”)

 

Breakthrough director
Charlotte Wells (“Aftersun”)
Owen Kline (“Funny Pages”)
Elegance Bratton (“The Inspection”)
Antoneta Alamat Kusijanovic (“Murina”)
Beth De Araújo (“Soft & Quiet”)
Jane Schoenbrun (“We’re All Going to the World’s Fair”)

 

Best screenplay
Kogonada (“After Yang”)
James Gray (“Armageddon Time”)
Lena Dunham (“Catherine Called Birdy”)
Todd Field (“Tár”)
Sarah Polley (“Women Talking”)

 

Breakthrough performer
Frankie Corio (“Aftersun”)
Kali Reis (“Catch the Fair One”)
Gracija Flipovic (“Murina”)
Anna Diop (“Nanny”)
Anna Cobb (“We’re All Going to the World’s Fair”)

 

I have read that Gotham doesn't like to nominate Foreign produced films in acting categories. That's why Banshees (Irish) didn't grab more nominations. Anyways, it's pretty weird that 2 estaciones got a Best feature but not a Foreign Feature, while Banshees got in Foreign and not Best Feature.

[interiorgatordecorator]

so it seems like wakanda forever wont be a real competitor 

[filmlover]

6 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

so it seems like wakanda forever wont be a real competitor 

Reactions are strong! The previous Black Panther was probably last among the BP nominees that year though (no noms above the tech line) so this is a matter of whether it'll be enough to make it as a filler nominee. All eyes are on Avatar now.

[Maggie]

On 10/27/2022 at 8:48 AM, interiorgatordecorator said:

so it seems like wakanda forever wont be a real competitor 

 

[Reddroast]

On 10/27/2022 at 8:27 AM, filmlover said:

Reactions are strong! The previous Black Panther was probably last among the BP nominees that year though (no noms above the tech line) so this is a matter of whether it'll be enough to make it as a filler nominee. All eyes are on Avatar now.

 

On 10/27/2022 at 1:48 AM, interiorgatordecorator said:

so it seems like wakanda forever wont be a real competitor 

While I wouldn't count out Cameron fully, there are factors that may make it too similar to BP2.

With Babylon opening right around the same time frame as it ( awards season tends to congratulate films about anything related to itself [ see my week with Marilyn, once apon a time in Hollywood and the artist.].) Avatar 2 looks to be fighting a larger uphill battle than expected

[Reddroast]

As for my predictions 

Fabelmans 

Banshees 

Eeao 

Elvis 

Top Gun 2

Triangle of sadness 

Women talking 

Bp2 

GDT's Pinocchio 

Tar 

 

 

On the outside looking in/unknown variables

Avatar 2 

She said 

Glass onion 

Babylon

Edited October 28, 2022 by Reddroast

[WrathOfHan]

Here's where I'm at right now:

 

Safely in:

1. The Fabelmans

2. The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. Women Talking

5. TÁR

6. Top Gun: Maverick

 

Unseen but assuming they're in for now:

7. Babylon

8. Avatar: The Way of Water

 

Fighting for the last two spots:

9. Elvis

10. The Whale

11. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

12. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

13. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

14. The Woman King

15. Triangle of Sadness

 

Less likely but can rise if precursors build momentum:

16. Bones and All

17. White Noise

18. Aftersun

19. All Quiet on the Western Front

20. Thirteen Lives

 

Wildcards:

21. Living

22. Till

23. Decision to Leave

24. Bardo

25. Armageddon Time

[Ezen Baklattan]

17 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Here's where I'm at right now:

 

Safely in:

1. The Fabelmans

2. The Banshees of Inisherin

3. Everything Everywhere All at Once

4. Women Talking

5. TÁR

6. Top Gun: Maverick

 

Unseen but assuming they're in for now:

7. Babylon

8. Avatar: The Way of Water

 

Fighting for the last two spots:

9. Elvis

10. The Whale

11. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

12. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

13. Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

14. The Woman King

15. Triangle of Sadness

 

Less likely but can rise if precursors build momentum:

16. Bones and All

17. White Noise

18. Aftersun

19. All Quiet on the Western Front

20. Thirteen Lives

 

Wildcards:

21. Living

22. Till

23. Decision to Leave

24. Bardo

25. Armageddon Time

Kinda surprised She Said isn't on your list. I'm very much unsure of how it'll connect with the industry (even if critics were mostly positive but not THAT positive) but it feels like at least a top 25 contender.

 

(I had that and Triangle of Sadness in my top 10 a few weeks ago, but they're definitely on their way out.)

[filmlover]

She Said is definitely above things like Thirteen Lives (dumped on streaming over the summer and forgotten about now) or Aftersun or Armageddon Time (movies that no one will see). We won't get a sense of how far it's going until we hear how the industry responds to it and the other movies in contention, but since it's assured an Adapted Screenplay nomination given how barren that category is and Supporting Actress is so open that Mulligan could sneak in, it could get three major nominations even if it has no chance of winning any of them. Not expecting it to do well at the box office, but unlike something like, say, Bros, there's no pressure for a movie like this to make money in theaters, especially when it's looking to be a low-grossing crop of nominees again outside of potentially three movies.

[cannastop]

 

[DAJK]

21 minutes ago, cannastop said:

 

I am beyond excited for this.