Super Bowl/Valentine's Weekend Thread | Nile 1.1M Previews, Marry Me 525K

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

45 minutes ago, Eric Poirot said:

The trailer for that always takes me out because the big ending gag is Channing Tatum pretending to be blind, which is…kinda gross?

He gets called out for pretending to be blind seconds later in the trailer

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Yeah, the numbers ain't great but 12m for Nile and 8m for Marry Me... decent all things considered. Especially during Super Bowl weekend. 

[babz06]

44 minutes ago, Flopped said:

 

If it becomes a hit, I can't think of an actress with a longer shelf life as a box office draw than Sandra Bullock. 

Channing Tatum is also a comedy draw somewhat. He’s just been gone awhile.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Yeah, Channing Tatum had a pretty great streak for awhile besides Jupiter Ascending which nobody could save and White House Down. Logan Lucky had weak distributor and late marketing. Foxcatcher was a limited Oscar drama. Dog and Lost City appeal to demo that made his hits like Dear John and The Vow. And Jump Street movies to lesser extent

 

Hopefully Dog does well. I have it low sadly but might be decent counterprogramming to families and women

[Napoleon]

I hope no more studio merges. Death On Denial is opening at the higher end of adult oriented films since covid, despite being completely dumped. Its biggest star didn’t even do those fluffy late night interviews. Was there even a premiere for the movie? This would never happen when Fox was a studio of its own that would need their movies to make money, they would put every effort into making them reach their full potential at the box office.

[EmpireCity]

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

BTW the CinemaCon schedule has just been posted and so far Disney isn't participating. Will they? Who knows.

 

2022 Schedule of Events - CinemaCon

 

They are participating this year.  The early schedule always leaves spots blank.  

[KJsooner]

Drive my car was a tedious bore. Absolutely very mediocre film that doesn’t deserve the nominations it got. Don’t waste your time with the schlocky b/s.

[EmpireCity]

$5.75m for Death on the Nile.  

 

 

[EmpireCity]

$3.8m for Spider-Man.  

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

$5.75m for Death on the Nile.  

 

 

That's a nearly 50% increase from Friday minus the 2 days of previews. Can't say I'm shocked after how old my Friday night audience was for the most part.

[Tokugennumataka]

Good growth for Nile. $13M+ is on the cards. Think Spidey is going to the wire for $7M. Maybe $7.05? 

[Flopped]

4 hours ago, KJsooner said:

Drive my car was a tedious bore. Absolutely very mediocre film that doesn’t deserve the nominations it got. Don’t waste your time with the schlocky b/s.

 

I agree. It starts off well enough but after an hour I was bored as hell...and I still had two hours to go. Between this and Spencer, I'm not sure what critics are smoking anymore. 

[Flopped]

Btw did the studio pay certain critics to give Mary Me good reviews? I wanted to like it, but it's one of the worst movies I've ever seen. 

[LPLC]

2 hours ago, Tokugennumataka said:

Good growth for Nile. $13M+ is on the cards. Think Spidey is going to the wire for $7M. Maybe $7.05? 

I think 60% drop on Sunday

$1,85M + $3,8M + $1,5M = $7,15M

$759M by Sunday 

[john2000]

more like 7,5-7,6

[Tokugennumataka]

1 hour ago, LPLC said:

I think 60% drop on Sunday

$1,85M + $3,8M + $1,5M = $7,15M

$759M by Sunday 

TFA had better Sunday holds every week post December and that dropped 62%. 

[Joyous Legion]

7 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:

TFA had better Sunday holds every week post December and that dropped 62%. 

The Fri jumps suggest NWH is a bit more kid skewing than TFA imo, which could insulate the sun somewhat. But probably 60-65 yeah

[TwoMisfits]

18 hours ago, Porthos said:

And this is the related problem.  Just what IS a breakout in the current market? Or this summer?

 

Take Free Guy.  That's nearly universally considered to be a breakout in the context of 2021 during the Delta surge. It was seen as having an over-performing OW AND it had killer legs. But would an exact same performance be considered a "breakout" this summer if there is no variant to deal with?  

 

I don't know.  At least it'd be the subject of Annoying Discourse thanks to the legs vs OW arguments.

 

So that's kinda where my head is at on whether or not the theaters are DOOOOOOOOOOMED.   I don't even know if there is a consensus on what would be success/failure flop/breakout for some of the films coming down the pike.

 

$100M DOM is my generic 2022 "it's not a flop" for blockbusters with no supers - no matter what they had for production budgets...

$150M DOM (aka Over Free Guy/Ghostbusters) is my 2022 "it's doing well" for a blockbuster with no supers - no matter...

$200M DOM is my 2022 "it's doing great" for a blockbuster with no supers - no matter...

 

If it skews heavily male, add 25% to the above numbers...if it skews heavily female, drop 25% from the above numbers...the numbers above are for more 4 quad movies...

 

2021 had only 14 movies break $100M DOM.  Of those, no non-supers broke $200M, and only 3 non-supers broke $150M...

 

So, til we prove 2022 box office is better than 2021, those are my standards...and I'd expect early 2022 movies get more grace and late ones (aka, when we should be fully moved on) get less...

Edited February 13, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[Krissykins]

 

 

Big drop for Jackass. 

[CJohn]

SuperBowl bloodbath.