WEEKEND THREAD: No one went to the Danger Zone :( 145M JWD, 51.8M TGM, EEAAO reaches 61 DOM

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, LegendaryBen said:

It will need to open above $80m to get a $200m total. Reviews will make or break.

No....? It would be shocking for the movie to have such toxic WOM to get less than a 2.5x in summer. Really even below 3x would be really surprising for me. 

Edited June 11, 2022 by Menor Reborn

[DC Rich]

7 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Nope. Im a fanboy, but not a lunatic. Also, i dont have the money for more than 14-18ish viewings. Gotta draw the line somewhere.

 

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

It will need to open above $80m to get a $200m total. Reviews will make or break.

 

It wont get such bad legs. Even if reviews are not too great, its still an animated family movie that will get those sweet summer weekdays. I dont think a multi below 3 will happen here.

 

Which means mid 60s OW should pretty much be enough for 200M.

[harrisonisdead]

23 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

Maybe very good reviews could built momentum there

Honestly based on social reactions it's hard to say that we can expect particularly great reviews for Lightyear. Seemed like I saw a lot more lukewarm reactions than fully positive. Certainly not many people saying this is a movie anyone needs to rush out and see.

 

Now, it's a Pixar film, so I'm sure its Rotten Tomatoes score will be fine no matter what, but I don't think anything will be extreme enough to generate hype.

 

Granted, it's a kids' film, so I don't know that it needs "hype" to succeed, but I would also say that among young ones, Minions 2 is a lot more exciting a prospect. I worked at a school this past school year and kids still LOVE anything Illumination. Especially Minions. Lightyear has the bit more difficult task of convincing older crowds that it's worth seeing.

[LegendaryBen]

19 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

likely not as I stated before Friday. People expected WAY too much after it getting insane competition this week. Next week is Lightyear

 

still 550 would be amazing and double the original expectations 

I may not agree with what you said because 600 is still possible and Lightyear is more likely to kill JWD (since it will split premium screens with them) than killing TGM. It's not that 600 is a 0% chance. However, I respect your opinion. I wish the best for Lightyear and TGM. BTW, I like your profile picture.

Edited June 11, 2022 by LegendaryBen

[M37]

11 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

likely not as I stated before Friday. People expected WAY too much after it getting insane competition this week. Next week is Lightyear

 

still 550 would be amazing and double the original expectations 

It wasn’t the competition so much as the loss of PLF, which is a one time hit to grossing potential following an enormous WOM second weekend push, run/drops should stabilize after this week. Doesn’t matter what “expectations” were when it’s making $90 in second weekend 

 

If it tracks after Sun like Aladdin - they both had ~65%/35% weekend/day split for prior week - then would expect TG2 to make ~5x this weekend’s gross for remainder of run. So expected total gross is $343 + 6x (this weekend), and a $50M weekend would suggest $643M total. Add in in $6M more for every $1M above $50 for this weekend, plus potentially an IMAX re-release, and $650 is quite possible 

[Brainbug]

Fathers Day in any case will be an awesome day to follow the numbers. Top Gun, Dominion and Lightyear are imo all either perfect (Top Gun), very good (Dominion) or at least solid (Lightyear) choices for that day. Plus it will be inflated because of the Holiday Monday.

[MikeQ]

17 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

It will need to open above $80m to get a $200m total. Reviews will make or break.

 

The film's reception would have to be really bad to achieve under a 2.5x multiplier.

 

Excluding Onward (whose legs were decimated a week in by the pandemic), the only Pixar films that have under a 3x multiplier are Cars 2 and Cars 3 - and still both of those films achieved 2.89x and 2.85x multipliers, respectively.

 

Peace,

Mike

[LegendaryBen]

2 minutes ago, MikeQ said:

 

The film's reception would have to be really bad to achieve under a 2.5x multiplier.

 

Excluding Onward (whose legs were decimated a week in by the pandemic), the only Pixar films that have under a 3x multiplier are Cars 2 and Cars 3 - and still both of those films achieved 2.89x and 2.85x multipliers, respectively.

 

Peace,

Mike

The only thing is the Disney Plus 45 day window + Minions. However, the summer weekdays will help, Who knows? Disney+ may have a change of heart and allow Lightyear to play in theaters until September (when it goes to D+). Thanks for clarifying.

[Eric Prime]

I'm not generally in the "streaming kills theatrical interest" camp, but I think Disney and Pixar titles are a huge exception to the rule. Even if Luca and Turning Red got theatrical releases (though them going straight to streaming does not help), I think Disney+ really puts a lot of families, who would have seen these animated movies on the big screen back in the day, under the "we'll wait until it's free at home" camp, especially with the way ticket prices are these days and the cost of living with all dat inflation. Encanto's streaming explosion only adds more fuel to the fire to my thoughts (don't give me any "if they didn't announce the Disney+ date" argument).

 

I don't know what all this means for Lightyear's opening, though sales have been pretty soft in Philly, but don't be shocked when some original animated titles, from Disney proper and Pixar, get released as Disney+ originals.

[Brainbug]

Just now, Eric the Last Dinosaur said:

I'm not generally in the "streaming kills theatrical interest" camp, but I think Disney and Pixar titles are a huge exception to the rule. Even if Luca and Turning Red got theatrical releases (though them going straight to streaming does not help), I think Disney+ really puts a lot of families, who would have seen these animated movies on the big screen back in the day, under the "we'll wait until it's free at home" camp, especially with the way ticket prices are these days and the cost of living with all dat inflation. Encanto's streaming explosion only adds more fuel to the fire to my thoughts (don't give me any "if they didn't announce the Disney+ date" argument).

 

Pure speculation on my part, but i can imagine many familys during 2 years of Covid had their kids watch a ton of animated movies at home and maybe a lot of them have just kind of adapted to seeing animated movies on their couches.

[Mulder]

I also think the people most concerned about COVID still, are parents with kids. 

[Eric Prime]

7 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

Pure speculation on my part, but i can imagine many familys during 2 years of Covid had their kids watch a ton of animated movies at home and maybe a lot of them have just kind of adapted to seeing animated movies on their couches.

I'm sure I'll get lectured by people that everything is still fine and nothing will ever change, but I still have a huge nagging fear in the back of my mind that a lot of kids these days are so used to seeing new movies at home that theaters are like vinyl to them. Just some weird way to watch something they'll get at home soon. Gonna lead to some bad implications in the next couple decades.

[Cooper Legion]

3 hours ago, Mulder said:

I went to sleep after this but you can apply it to literally any movie. This feels like goal post stretching.

I do apply it to every movie — you may have noticed when I pointed out that Batman and DS2 performances were meh with 2022 atp as one factor     
 

It’s having the goal posts where they oughta be originally, no stretching here.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Legion and Thunder said:

I do apply it to every movie — you may have noticed when I pointed out that Batman and DS2 performances were meh with 2022 atp as one factor     
 

It’s having the goal posts where they oughta be originally, no stretching here.

No offense but I don't get this. You can do this with literally every movie.

[Jiffy]

10 minutes ago, Eric the Last Dinosaur said:

I'm sure I'll get lectured by people that everything is still fine and nothing will ever change, but I still have a huge nagging fear in the back of my mind that a lot of kids these days are so used to seeing new movies at home that theaters are like vinyl to them. Just some weird way to watch something they'll get at home soon. Gonna lead to some bad implications in the next couple decades.

Yep, streaming is death. We need an animated theatrical breakout as well.

[Cooper Legion]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

No offense but I don't get this. You can do this with literally every movie.

Uhh… what. The 2nd sentence of this comment feels like you didn’t read the first sentence of mine.  
 

Yes, you can apply it to every movie. I agree! It’s true! We should, and I do 😆

[FilmFincher]

This movie doubles down on the stupid of the previous entry. Sometimes that’s good, sometimes it’s bad. 

 

Exposition is really lazy and dull. The character moments that do manage to squeeze their way in follow suit. There’s contrivances and coincidences left and right. I know that’s not why we come to Jurassic World by it spends way too much time on this stuff. 

 

I was surprisingly okay with the main driving force for the characters of both narratives. Chemistry between some of the cast was quite stilted and there’s a strange focus on random side characters who we barely know.

 

That being said I got to watch Raptors in a chase through the streets of Malta like they’re Jason Bourne, which is just as fun as it sounds. It’s the kind of ridiculous Fast & Furious style action that these movies have fun with. Bryce Dallas Howard continues to be unbelievably attractive in this entire series and has the best Dinosaur related scenes in the latter half of the film. One of which is actually pretty tense; a rarity for the 'World' films. 

 

Film was losing me towards the end, it was all the usual perfunctory blockbuster stuff. 

I was unfortunately let down by the final battle which isn’t even as good as the one in the first Jurassic World. Awful coverage, lack of buildup and ultimately meaningless to the entire narrative.

Edited June 11, 2022 by FilmFincher

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Legion and Thunder said:

Uhh… what. The 2nd sentence of this comment feels like you didn’t read the first sentence of mine.  
 

Yes, you can apply it to every movie. I agree! It’s true! We should, and I do 😆

I mean universally. Everything sucks because it didn't hit the heights of Gone With The Wind? Like I just don't get the logic.

[John Marston]

today is the 40th anniversary of ET. No doubt Universal desperately wants to do a legacy sequel to this but Spielberg likely has final say and can shoot that down. For the best probably