WEEKEND THREAD: Lightyear implodes with 51M DOM, 85.6M WW. THE LAST PIXAR MOVIE EVER?????😱😱😱 | Dominion #1 with 58.66M, Top Gun 44M

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, ringedmortality said:

 

Isn't HBOMAX like 15 dollars a month and Netflix 20 dollars a month

 

Nope, Netflix is $9.99/month for 1 stream and HBO Max is $9.99/month with ads.

 

That said, I'll be punting HBO Max in July to finally watch my free Apple (again b/c I've watched all the product I want and they are also not fast enough to add) and I don't pay for Netflix (my phone does)...

Edited June 18, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[wildphantom]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

$8/month...which is higher than Paramount (free for tons now, but normally $4.99/month) - or Prime, which is also free if you are doing their shipping anyway (which is how many families "price" it).  Both of those streaming services deliver a ton of kids' product.

 

Disney is closest in price to Netflix and HBO Max, so they need to deliver like them to keep subscribers...and since they can't deliver the adult product like they can, they do need to be king of kids.

 

So, they can't tell their subscribers "after 45 days, we want another $20 to see this movie now" b/c they'll all leave.  What they can do is say "this movie will be free in 60 days (vs 45)" in a slow "boil the frog" plan...and then next year, maybe go to 75...

 

 

where’s the evidence they’d all leave? 
 

What content have Paramount and Amazon got that remotely compares with what Disney offer for kids? 
Kids have the greatest animated back catalogue in existence, and absolutely tons of new shows etc to watch on Disney+. 
They have everything Marvel and Star Wars on there. Everything Pixar on there. 
 

it’s a steal in my eyes, even without new movies appearing seven weeks after theatrical. 
 

I get what you’re saying, but I haven’t seen any evidence families would leave in droves if a Lightyear or Encanto doesn’t show up for free 45 days after opening. 

Edited June 18, 2022 by wildphantom

[ringedmortality]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Nope, Netflix is $9.99/month for 1 stream

 

How many people actually get this one though. It has no HD. And for a family surely 1 stream at a time is inconvenient.

[superduperm]

16 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Well, at least the Lightyear number went up just a little from the 20.2 we expected to 20.7... It's still a family movie... Wouldn't we expect something close to or just over 20M for LY today as well?

That would be about a 30-33% increase from true Friday. Doesn’t seem likely for late-June opening weekend.

Edited June 18, 2022 by superduperm

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

How many people actually get this one though. It has no HD. And for a family surely 1 stream at a time is inconvenient.

 

Lots of TMobile users have this one guaranteed in their plans...at most, they are paying a $2/upcharge per month to pay for Netflix's past price increases.

 

Unlike the TMobile Tuesday gifts this year of Paramount Plus and Apple TV annual plans - those will only be 1 year...

 

(And the Philo $15/month/year which was gonna be 1 year, but is now a perpetual perk as well)...

Edited June 18, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[The Dark Alfred]

Can't wait to see what Sunday brings. TGM continues to impress, 3rd biggest 4th Sunday of all time (excluding AS), target is $15.7m (Avatar) to beat for best ever 4th Sunday.

[YM!]

17 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, they can't tell their subscribers "after 45 days, we want another $20 to see this  kids' movie now" b/c they'll all leave.  What they can do is say "this movie will be free in 60 days (vs 45)" in a slow "boil the frog" plan...and then next year, maybe go to 75...

You do realize Disney has the largest family library of all the streamers right and the fact a lot of families would likely watch SW and MCU stuff too which would be on at about the same time?

 

I do think the 60 day plan is the most likely and makes the most sense but it’s laughable to think a mass exodus would leave if they had to pay after 45 days.

Edited June 18, 2022 by YourMother

[JohnnyGossamer]

19 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

$8/month...which is higher than Paramount (free for tons now, but normally $4.99/month) - or Prime, which is also free if you are doing their shipping anyway (which is how many families "price" it).  Both of those streaming services deliver a ton of kids' product.

 

Disney is closest in price to Netflix and HBO Max, so they need to deliver like them to keep subscribers...and since they can't deliver the adult product like they can, they do need to be king of kids.

 

So, they can't tell their subscribers "after 45 days, we want another $20 to see this  kids' movie now" b/c they'll all leave.  What they can do is say "this movie will be free in 60 days (vs 45)" in a slow "boil the frog" plan...and then next year, maybe go to 75...

 

 

I mean, they definitely need to add the Buena Vista stuff, etc. and just put locks on there so kids can't access but HBO Max and Netflix are both $15+, no? Disney+ is close to Hulu and Prime which I think are $7 and $10.

[YM!]

OS for Lightyear is rough as every market but Latin America seems bad, hell there’s a very real chance it goes under The Good Dinosaur. There’s no beating around the bush, this is a flop.

[EmpireCity]

28 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

$8/month...which is higher than Paramount (free for tons now, but normally $4.99/month) - or Prime, which is also free if you are doing their shipping anyway (which is how many families "price" it).  Both of those streaming services deliver a ton of kids' product.

 

Disney is closest in price to Netflix and HBO Max, so they need to deliver like them to keep subscribers...and since they can't deliver the adult product like they can, they do need to be king of kids.

 

So, they can't tell their subscribers "after 45 days, we want another $20 to see this  kids' movie now" b/c they'll all leave.  What they can do is say "this movie will be free in 60 days (vs 45)" in a slow "boil the frog" plan...and then next year, maybe go to 75...

 

 

 

Yeah, I just disagree with this.  $8 a month with no ads for everything is insanely cheap, even for struggling families.  You can barely get a value meal at a fast food restaruant for that much.  

[The Dark Alfred]

Every time Disney suffers it's good news. It's a shame it happens to a Pixar film, though. Hope one day we'll see a divorce.

[Deep Wang]

29 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Nope, Netflix is $9.99/month for 1 stream

 

480p lmafuckingo get that shit outta here.

[charlie Jatinder]

Netflix is just $4 if you have a VPN.

[TwoMisfits]

Dem breakdown from Lightyear - as predicted yesterday, it skewed more white, adult, and male than normal Pixar/animated (especially given the low overall box office)...from Deadline...

 

"Of those who turned out for Lightyear, 52% were men, 48% females. Sixty one percent of those who bought tickets were between 18-34. Men over 25 were dominant at 30% giving the film its best grade of 87% positive. Females under 25 at 24% also gave it 87%. Females over 25 repped 24% of the audience and graded the Pixar film with an 85%. Men under 25, at 23%, gave the film a 79% grade. Diversity demos were 46% Caucasian, 28% Hispanic and Latino, 10% Black, and 11% Asian. Lightyear‘s best territories were in the West and Southwest where eight of its top ten runs came from. Imax and PLF screens are contributing close to a quarter of the box office to date."

 

Posting Encanto b/c it's the most recent release...although that one had obvious demo skew (but for future reference, it like Lightyear, performed best in the West/Southwest, so something for our future trackers to consider)...

 

 

"Encanto played best in the West and Southwest and saw a huge Latino and Hispanic turnout of 59%, with 19% Caucasian, 10% Black, 8% Asian, and 5% other. Suburban markets also posted good sales as is typical for a Disney release. Of those showing up 33% were women over 25 (who gave Encanto its best grade at 96%), 29% women under 25, 22% men over 25 and 15% men under 25. Forty percent of the audience came because it was a Disney animated title."

 

 

Edited June 18, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[Felandria]

Honestly, Dominion is doing pretty well for its second weekend, considering FK had weaker competition.

[grim22]

 

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

With this hold, can Strange potentially leg it out to 415M even with the imminent Disney+ release coming? I assume it'll be around 405M after this weekend.

[JohnnyGossamer]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Dem breakdown from Lightyear - as predicted yesterday, it skewed more white, adult, and male than normal Pixar/animated (especially given the low overall box office)...from Deadline...

 

"Of those who turned out for Lightyear, 52% were men, 48% females. Sixty one percent of those who bought tickets were between 18-34. Men over 25 were dominant at 30% giving the film its best grade of 87% positive. Females under 25 at 24% also gave it 87%. Females over 25 repped 24% of the audience and graded the Pixar film with an 85%. Men under 25, at 23%, gave the film a 79% grade. Diversity demos were 46% Caucasian, 28% Hispanic and Latino, 10% Black, and 11% Asian. Lightyear‘s best territories were in the West and Southwest where eight of its top ten runs came from. Imax and PLF screens are contributing close to a quarter of the box office to date."

I imagine that bodes well for its Father's Day hold this Sunday.

[Juby]

Okay, if $45 million for Maverick is possible (WHAT?!) I prepare a new showdown:

The biggest summer movies after the 4th weekend, how much they added after that and how much they added after the 3rd weekend if it was lower than Maverick 4th wknd.

 

Wonder Woman  - $318.1m after 24 days +$94.4m [rest] (or +$137.5m after 17 days, cause TGM 4th will be bigger than WW's 3rd wknd)

The Dark Knight - $441.3m +$91.7m (or +$139.6m)

Incredibles 2  - $503.8m + $104.8m (+$168m)

The Avengers - $513.4m after 24 days + $110m [rest]

Jurassic World  - $556.5m + $95.7m [rest]

 

'Top Gun 2' is doing better than any of these great hits, so I guess adding at least $140 million after this weekend is probable. Black Panther was at $561.7 million after its 4th weekend ($40.8m) and added later another $138.4 million to its domestic gross. Even without Infinity War boost help, Maverick can top that due to summer weekdays and smaller competition.

 

So yes, if +$40 million 4th weekend happens, than $600 million domestic for Maverick is locked, and even $640 million will be possible at this point Imho.
 

[grey ghost]

30 days is too short but a 45 day window is a fair compromise.

 

Dr Strange 2 already hit 400 million. Does it really need 3 extra weeks at the theater to make another 10 million?

Edited June 18, 2022 by grey ghost